Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

After a shaky result for the LNP in yesterday’s state poll, today’s federal follow-up brings even worse news from Queensland for the Abbott government.

Tomorrow’s Courier-Mail carries results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, going off the same sample as yesterday’s state poll, and it’s the first of four such polls since the election to show Labor in front. Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred represents an 8% swing from last year’s federal election, and a three-point shift to Labor from the previous result in February. It also sits well with the current reading from BludgerTrack, suggesting serious problems for the government in what may be the most important state in the country in terms of marginal seats. Primary votes and such to follow shortly. UPDATE: The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 8% for the Greens and 12% for Palmer United. The poll also finds 36% believe the Abbott government has lived up to expectations, down nine points since February, 56% believe it has performed below them, up nine points, and 4% believe it has been better, down two.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The regular weekly result from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote, to 40% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, and the two main minor parties up one, the Greens to 9% and Palmer United to 6%. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred to lead 52-48. Further questions find a remarkable 43% saying the government should respond to its budget difficulties by calling an election, the breakdowns for party support suggesting this mostly bespeaks a desire to get rid of the government rather than secure the passage of its budget. Thirty-eight per cent say they would rather a new budget be introduced, including a majority among Coalition supporters. I’m not sure if the availability of only two options together with “don’t know” succeeds in capturing the full range of opinion on the subject.

Other questions find opinion on the state of the economy little changed since April, with a good rating of 37% (down one) and a poor rating of 26% (up two), but more thinking it headed in the wrong direction, up seven to 41% with “right direction” down four to 35%. Concern about job losses is up a point to 58%, with the “not at all concerned” response up three to 32%. Twenty-one per cent say the impact of the budget on employment will be good versus 49% for bad. Sixty per cent disapprove of sending troops to Iraq versus 28% who approve, and 36% believe current spending on anti-terrorism measures is about right, compared with 28% who want more and 19% who want less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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  1. “@RNBreakfast: Wayne Swan tells Fran Liberals wanted Australia to feel the “cleansing powers of a recession” #auspol @SwannyQLD”

  2. Socrates

    The folly of America propping up friendly but corrupt generals and dictators is about to be exposed again in Pakistan.]
    The CIA ( or whatever agency) guy who was in charge of looking for Bin Laden when speaking to some US pollies listed 6 reasons for why the ME is a mess and why “they hate us”. Number 1 on the list was the US support for repressive regimes in the region.

  3. On the previous thread deblonay said this

    RE Sweden
    It currently has a very right-wing govt which has a PM whom I understand as a young man actively campaigned for support for the US in Vietnam,and has supported many US invasions and wars.e.g Iraq….in the years since(the same could be said of of John Howard of course)

    Well, considering the current PM of Sweden was born in 1965, I find it hard to believe he campaigned for support for the US in Vietnam.

  4. This article provides a summary of Abbott’s enviro-vandalism. Raises the blood pressure.

    [Abbott’s anti-environment stance has raised eyebrows around the world. Environmental author Bill McKibben has said that Americans who traveled abroad during the George W. Bush administration should have sympathy for Australians right now: “It’s not easy being citizens of countries run by international laughing stocks.” The comparison is apt: Like the Bush administration, Abbott chooses to ignore or undercut federal and international law when it doesn’t suit his interests.]

  5. “@774melbourne: Islamic Council of Victoria declines PM @TonyAbbottMHR’s invitation to meet today after remarks on Sydney radio. #Faine”

  6. [She also told me she thinks we are approaching education the wrong way and we should do what they do in many Scandanavian countries; spend the first 6 years building social skills and self-confidence and don’t start on academic stuff until those bedrocks are already in place.]

    I agree we’re approaching education the wrong way, but I don’t agree that the Scandinavian countries have much to teach us.

    There’s a lot of hagiography around their academic performance which seems to be built around what they were achieving a decade or so ago and misconceptions about what they actually do (for example, I’m constantly told – by teachers – that Sweden and Norway pay their teachers better. They don’t.)

    NAPLAN shows that the best indicator of academic success (and other kinds of success, too – as a generalisation, a happy, self confident child will do well academically) is what happens before a child gets to school – that they are born with a high birthweight, that they grow up in a house full of books and that their mother (and yes, it is gender specific) spends significant time at home.

    Other studies show that spending money and resources on children in preschool years yeilds better outcomes.

    There are also countless studies, going back decades, showing that children acquire languages more easily in their preschool years than they do afterwards, and that a child who has learnt ANY second language (particularly before about the age of eight) will find learning languages easier in later life.

    Again, all the studies indicate that what drags down Australia’s educational performance is the lack of support for disadvantaged children.

    If we want to turn these figures around, we need to identify at risk children, preferably before they’re born (when support and advice can be given to the mother). We then need to channel significant resources in their direction BEFORE they even come near a school.

    We already have begun this, to some extent, by insisting that childcare be more than just babysitting. However, this doesn’t get precisely the children we need to, because they’re not the ones who tend to end up in childcare (as disadvantaged parents can’t afford it).

  7. A person I work with drew the comparison of Abbott and his super patriotic “Team Australia, you are part of the Team or you are against us” mantra, with that of a little Austrian guy with a funny moustache in Germany during the 1930-40’s time.

    I hadn’t given much thought. Then while posting comment on another site I was accused of supporting terrorism and the advocating for the atrocities because I stated I would not be a part of Abbott’s Team Australia.

    That reaction seemed to be along the same lines a my friend’s thinking. The only Goodies are those who submit uncompromising allegiance to Abbott’s Team Australia

  8. AussieAchmed

    Timely that after Abbott’s ‘Strayan values or feck off comments this was the “comment of the day” in the Independent.

    [Comment of the day

    Nationalism as a tool for controlling people works, because national values are not set in stone, and can be hijacked by political parties and movements of all colours.

  9. Murdoch media is making a big play of the suddenly compassionate Scott Morrison today.

    The DT front page image here proclaims loudly

    [“Exclusive – hand of hope for Labor’s child detainees – boat kids freed”]

    Of course, you need to read the fine print

    [THE families of children under the age of 10 will be moved into the community while their refuge applications are processed, after the government approved new bridging visa arrangements.

    However, the children must have arrived before July 19 last year to be released…

    Immigration Minister Scott Morrison defended the decision to release only the children held in mainland detention, and not those in the Nauru or Christmas Island facilities…

    Mr Morrison says he hopes to have the children released by the end of the year.]

  10. citizen

    It is a compassion overload over at the GG. Check out the headline for this opinion piece.

    [Needs a better basis of help

    PUNISHING the unemployed is an outdated approach.]

  11. [Morning #ICAC buffs. A swag of witnesses up today including Joe Tripodi’s mate Vince Fidele, who printed those flyers smearing Jodi McKay.]

  12. Poor Joe Hockey is the eternal victim:

    [Treasurer Joe Hockey has suggested his claim that the “poorest people either don’t have cars or actually don’t drive very far” was misreported by the media, re-opening debate about the embarrassing gaffe.

    But Mr Hockey has insisted he has moved on and is focused on getting the Coalition’s budget through the Senate, adding he would not “indulge in self-pity”.

    Asked on Geelong radio station Bay FM on Tuesday if his words about the proposed fuel excise rise had been twisted, Mr Hockey appeared to agree, despite apologising just days earlier.

    “Look I think anyone who actually looks at what I actually said as opposed to what people were reporting that I said might form that view. But any words I use now will be, again, misinterpreted,” he said.]

  13. citizen

    How can hockey’s precise words be misinterpreted. He does realise there is video and audio evidence of what he said.

  14. [would Sweden extradite him?

    Highly doubtful. Sweden’s extradition agreement with the United States, signed in 1961 and updated in 1983, prohibits extradition on the basis of “a political offense” or “an offense connected with a political offense.” The agreement does not specify what constitutes a “political offense.” Whether the Swedish supreme court would rule to extradite Assange largely depends on what charges the secret U.S. grand jury brings against him.

    If Assange is accused of espionage, Sweden most certainly would not comply, as its courts have consistently determined that espionage constitutes a political offense. ]

  15. victoria

    I think because the nasty media simply reported what Hockey said – they didn’t read what was in his heart.

    Or so a woman I met whilst crossing at the lights told me.

  16. It seems that Clive is basing his policy formation on a visit from four “little old ladies”. I’ve heard him tell this story at least four times. Perhaps these are the only representatives of Joe Public that he has actually met. All the rest are relatives or employees. And Al Gore.

  17. The pleasure of being governed by adults is to wake up and wonder at the wisdom of their utterances. Yesterday we had to chose from, among others:

    1. Joe’s sulky silence (enhanced already today by his claim that he had been misinterpreted when the only conclusion is he lied when he said he had Treasury advice that the fuel excise tax was progressive).
    2. Tony saying that Labor is to blame for NSW Libs receiving bribes because they made the law. Oh, and as a lovely detail, that the law wasn’t clear because who knew what a developer was – apparently not a problem for the miscreant NSW Libs because they knew exactly which donations to hide.
    3. Tony saying the blackest day in Australian sport was just a political confection by Labor. Apparently Tony is unaware of the deep trouble facing Australia’s two leading football codes arising directly from the matters aired on that sunny day for Australian sport last year. Just ask Cronulla and Essendon supporters.

    I wonder what the adults have for us today. Stand by for laughs – and we can afford to laugh*. This lot is so ineffectual if they actually do pass into law any of their ideological nonsense – like denying the unemployed benefits for extended periods – it will serve as a useful corrective for anyone silly enough to vote for this collection of adults at the next election.

    [As long as they do not send us off to war. As Tony wanted to do with 1,000 troops to Ukraine. I wouldn’t be laughing then.]

  18. CTar

    [ would Sweden extradite him?]

    The Brits don’t seem to be in any mood to overlook him jumping bail. Quite correctly.

    Plus those who put the bail money up are seriously out of pocket.

    Even when all of this is worked through – he will still be looking over his shoulder for the rest of his life.

  19. zoomster
    [Posted Tuesday, August 19, 2014 at 10:00 am | PERMALINK

    I think because the nasty media simply reported what Hockey said – they didn’t read what was in his heart.

    Or so a woman I met whilst crossing at the lights told me.]


  20. Jon faine made the pertinent point that the US have been more than happy with Assange being holed up in the Eucadarian embassy. Whilst there, he has been unable to concentrate on his wikileaks

  21. Plenty of non MSM articles on abbott etc this morning.

    Not so much in the MSM itself although I don’t go near the GG.

    Jenna Price in fairfax doesn’t hold back though.

  22. Tick this group as another that Abbott has thrown off his team. He should look up the word “consultation” in the dictionary and not try to do everything in front of the media.

    [Mr Krayem said the language used by Mr Abbott was not befitting of a leader of a country and echoed those of right-wing extremists.

    He said said the council wrote to Mr Abbott after the government dumped the planned repeal of race-hate laws and announced enhanced national security laws detailing its concerns, but said the organisation received no reply until the invitation to attend Tuesday’s meeting.

    “The government has already decided what they want to do and they are looking for a rubber stamp,” he said.]

    Read more:

  23. Regarding Clive’s tirade against the Chinese government last night on QandA:

    I think I find the language blunt and undiplomatic but I wouldn’t call it racist. I don’t quite get why the ABC at the moment chose to zoom in on a random girl of Chinese heritage during his criticism of the Chinese government and Chinese investors, perhaps to try to evoke a response? Penny Wong appeared to enjoy the exchange between Tony and Clive though.

    I also think there might be a veiled finger-pointing at the current government at any plans to open up asset sales, land sales (farms) and investments to foreign investors. There is much speculation that it is the Chinese investors who will snap them up.

    There was a big discussion about PS stealing reams of paper on PB yesterday. Those accusations might appear pale in comparison. Among the migrant circles, there is some accusation that Chinese government officials are, through corrupt means, diverting funds into overseas investments, in the millions of dollars.

    Regarding Warren Truss’ performance in QandA:

    It is a shame that the Nationals are a dying breed. They seem a lot more pleasant going into debates. I suppose they’re being overtaken by the more “Liberal”-minded among their midst and this is probably why we have a hard time telling them apart from their senior coalition partner.

    If this “infrastructure” government had a deputy PM more like Tim Fischer, we would have seen a lot more investments into transport that emphasis on railway infrastructure. What a shame.

  24. [ How can hockey’s precise words be misinterpreted. He does realise there is video and audio evidence of what he said. ]

    Simple, they cant. However, Hockey is used to years of the media sheltering him and not picking up or following up on the glaringly obvious un-thruths he and his ilk proclaim.

    Also, we know its on video for posterity. Most of the punters out there are relatively politically disengaged and wont go looking for that vid or even care. They will simply assume that its the normal he said she said blah blah blah going on and further disengage.

    I would suggest that works for the incumbent as it creates a situation where the punters WANT to stay uninformed until he election campaign where it all becomes too intense and they vote the incumbent back in.

    Not sure that will work for the Libs this time around as they have been remarkably incompetent and stupid in crafting their budget, but, its the environment Hockey is used to and any change in the climate there is not obvious yet. Although i thin they should be starting to pay attention to their consistent polling deficit.

  25. Warren Truss – Not so pleasant. I have seen him in QT being vicious and mocking as he repeated “Labor’s debt and deficit disaster. He also droned on through all TJ’s attempts to shut him up, repeating all the Coalition “policy” that we know is faulty.

  26. [ Scott Morrison accused of using children in detention for “political point scoring” ]

    Yes, I thought that. What sense does it make to treat children who arrived under the ALP more compassionately than children who arrived under the LNP – except to allow Abbott to pretend that he has bigger balls than Gillard?

  27. dave

    [The Brits don’t seem to be in any mood to overlook him jumping bail. ]

    That’s the definite feeling.

    During the press conference of this so special individual there was a mention of ‘doing a deal. What has he got that he could possibly do a deal with?

    Nothing I can work other than his ar#e and that the Met police will get for free anyway.

  28. ctar

    On the Swedish extradition thing. If it is unlikely why not just say so?

    Commonsense surely that would have saved a lot of money that has been spent on lawyers

  29. Hadley and Hedley have just been sounding-off about Clive Palmer’s outburst last night on QandA.

    They have him down as a racist, who hate all Chinese. Callers phoned in telling Hadley that their Chinese wives were outraged etc. This would be the end of trade between China and Australia, and so on, and so forth.

    Firstly I thought Jones was quite rude and arrogant last night to gotcha Palmer on the question of his business problems with the Chinese. Rude, arrogant and persistent. It’s not the Tony Jones Show, even though he is the host. He’s a smug SOB and took unfair advantage of Palmer.

    As to Palmer’s outburst, it was clear he was referring to the company he is dealing with, not the Chinese people at large.

    The company IS state owned, and the Chinese government IS, at least officially, and proudly Communist. Why Hadley would take any exception to this, I don’t know… but he did.

    Calling them “mongrels” is not quite the way he should have put it, but that’s his business. If it affects any negotiations currently running then that’s his problem, not ours. I doubt very much whether it will affect trade relations between Australia and China.

    One caller demanded that Hadley be expelled from Parliament, showing the usual ignorance that Hadley’s listeners exhibit (present company excepted, of course!). Another called for Tony Abbott to summons Palmer to the Prime Ministerial office and to read the riot act to him.

    Hadley hosed this one well and truly down, as he knows it is not a matter of government. But he did make a demand of his own… that Bill Shorten(!) do the dressing down, and if he didn’t he was a wimpish coward, gutless clown etc. (the usual Hadley epithets). And as for Penny Wong putting up with it… WELL!

    Hedley spoke softly and faux-sadly. At last Palmer’s true character had come out: a “Buffoon” (Hedley’s word) and not fit to be in charge of a company, much less serve as an MP. This is what Hedley had been trying to get across to his readers for so long and at last Palmer had cracked etc. etc.

    All in all a pretty poor effort, I thought, but par for the course for the Ray Hadley Show.

  30. lizzie @80

    Warren Truss – Not so pleasant. I have seen him in QT being vicious and mocking …

    Being attacked by Warren Truss would be like getting slapped with a limp lettuce leaf.

  31. I enjoyed Palmer last night but absolutely loved John Falzon from St Vinnies – he was both passionate and compassionate.

    We need more like him in the political debate. Penny was wonderful as well – she is a class act.

    The Libs lost the audience last night and they are really heading for a short term in Government.

  32. Ctar

    Unlikely is not a guarantee. Reason Ecuador gave Asylum.
    If unlikely easy for Sweden to say it will not extradite to US unless a charge of murder on US soil is brought.

    Its a commonsense way to avoid lots of lawyers and the mess that the case has become dragging it out in time for the alleged victims

  33. @MTBW/91

    It was Abbott & Co that was helping to damage China because of talking down the economy for 6+ years, and still doing it today.

  34. zoid

    I just do not see any way out for the Libs. How they can repair all the damage they have already done I do not know.

    Warren Truss could not simply shut his mouth last night and droned on with rehearsed comments and talked over everyone.

    I think it is getting close to the point that Abbott and Hockey in particular gave it away.

    They both need to go to confession and say one “Our Father” and “Three Hail Mary’s” for their sins.

    There appears to be no plan at all in their strategies they just rinse and repeat all the time and say absolutely nothing of worth.

    They are losing it big time!

  35. From the horses’ mouth…

    [Mr Palmer has strenuously denied accusations that his company Mineralogy misused CITIC Pacific’s cash to finance PUP’s federal election campaign.

    He later tweeted that his comments were ”not intended to refer to Chinese people” but to CITIC Pacific in particular.
    In the broad spray on national television, the maverick MP accused the “communist Chinese government” of trying to take over Australia’s ports to steal the nation’s natural resources.

    “I don’t mind standing up against the Chinese bastards and stopping them from doing it,” he said.

    “I’m saying that because they’re communist, because they shoot their own people, they haven’t got a justice system and they want to take over this country.

    “We’re not going to let them do it.”


  36. guytaur

    the people devoid of common sense in this scenario are Assange and his supporters.

    Assange is protected by EU law – and he knows it. If the US wanted him extradited, it would be far easier for them to ask the UK to do this directly, rather than waiting for him to be sent to Sweden and then ask them to ask the UK if it would be OK.

  37. Retweeted by ACOSS
    Liz de Chastel ‏@LizdeChastel 1h

    53% of JSA caseload are long term unemployed – 443,000 appx #LTU14 @LT_Unemployment

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