Galaxy: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland

A Galaxy statewide poll from Queensland has the Liberal National Party retaining little of its 2012 election majority, while a local poll for the Townsville region suggests three seats that went from Labor to LNP in 2012 could be set to switch back again.

Steven Murray on Twitter relates that a Galaxy poll to be published in tomorrow’s Courier-Mail has Queensland’s Liberal National Party state government holding on to a 52-48 lead over Labor, down from 55-45 at the last such poll in May. The primary votes are 39% for the LNP, 36% for Labor, 12% for the Palmer United Party and zip for Katter’s Australian Party (UPDATE: Sorry, make that 3%)), with no result provided as of yet for the Greens (UPDATE: Make that 7%). The poll also produces what I believe may be Campbell Newman’s worst ever result as preferred premier, his lead over Annastacia Palaszczuk narrowing from 48-33 to 42-41. (UPDATE: It also finds Newman’s approval rating steady since May at 36% and disapproval up one to 56%, while Palaszczuk is up six to 39% and down two to 35%).

A separate Galaxy poll of 694 respondents conducted for the Townsville Bulletin zooms in on the seats in the paper’s catchment area, namely the electorates of Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa, all of which were lost by Labor in 2012. The poll finds Labor with a collective lead of 53-47 from primary votes of 39% for Labor, 33% for the LNP, 10% for Palmer United, 7% for Katter’s Australian Party and 5% for the Greens. HT: GhostWhoVotes.

Below are poll trend charts for the current parliamentary term, encompassing 17 results from ReachTEL, ten from Essential Research, nine from Galaxy and seven from Newspoll. The current trend results on the primary vote are 37.6% for the Liberal National Party, 34.3% for Labor, 5.8% for the Greens and 13.2% for Palmer United, with the LNP leading 50.9-49.1 on two-party preferred.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

12 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to LNP in Queensland”

  1. Galaxy Poll – QLD Seats of Townsville, Mundingburra and Thuringowa (694 voters)

    Two Party Preferred: LNP 47 (-10.2 from election) ALP 53 (+10.2)
    Primary Votes: LNP 33 (-6.3) ALP 39 (+11.6) PUP 10 KAP 7 (-18.1) GRN 5 (-0.4)

    [Poll reveals city’s LNP MP’s face the chopping block
    Townsville Bulletin
    August 16, 2014 7:20AM

    TOWNSVILLE’S three LNP state members are risk being booted out of office at the next state election unless they can dramatically turn around local voters’ anger at the Newman Government.

    A Galaxy poll conducted exclusively for the Townsville Bulletin found if an election were held today, Townsville voters would deliver a 10 per cent swing against the LNP, potentially wiping out all three sitting members.

    The poll of 694 people living in the three Townsville-based seats showed the city was turning its back on the government.]
    Looks like the Ghost just googled up this one from yesterday too 🙂

  3. The overall state polling seems to be KAP at 0 (probably rounded down). I wonder if there was any “Others” and how much of that went to the Greens.

  4. Sorry, I think I’ve picked that up from here. Perhaps it’s a typo.

    Stephen Murray @smurray38
    Tomorrow’s Courier Mail/Galaxy Poll: 2PP LNP 52 (-3 on May) ALP 48 (+3) Primary: LNP 39 ALP 36 PUP 12 KAP 0 #Qldpol

  5. KAP demised is a direct mirror of PUP’s rise in the graphs. Howver, I suspect that KAP might still do well in some parts of the north (its at 7% in townsville; and I imagine even higher further inland and north).

    Given the diversity of parties,the quite varied demographic population of Queensland, the lack of compulsory preferencing, and PUP’s likely last minue media blitz (like in WA senate re-election) it must be a nightmare to calculate seat projects.

    Overall a hung parliament is quite likely, with no obvious pathway for a coalition (who would want to form a coalition with PUP; and the LNP and ALP are highly unlikely to get into bed together).

  6. At the March 2014 election, SA Labor was able to form a minority government (and win more seats than the Liberals) with 47% of the 2PP. At the risk of oversimplifying matters, the reason this happened was because Labor was able to win most of the critical Adelaide marginals (albeit narrowly in a number of cases) and the Liberals won many of the non-Adelaide seats by substantial margins. Is there a similar possibility of such an outcome occurring in Queensland ie, with Labor winning a substantial majority of key marginals in SEQ and major regional centres, with a material proportion of the LNP vote “wasted” in rural electorates?? I realise there are substantial demographic differences between Qld and SA but I would be interested to know if any broad brush seat by seat projections have been made which might give an insight into a projected seat count (as opposed to a raw, statewide 2PP).

    [Labor’s Annastacia Palaszczuk closing fast on Campbell Newman as preferred Premier
    August 18, 2014 12:00AM
    Steven Wardill The Courier-Mail

    CAMPBELL Newman is holding on as preferred premier by the slimmest of margins as the LNP’s electoral fortunes continue to freefall.

    A new Galaxy Poll, held exclusively for The Courier-Mail, has revealed Labor leader Annastacia Palaszczuk is increasingly being seen by voters as a viable alternative to the unpopular leader.]

  8. This is a fine result for Labor considering where they started. Anastasia Paluszczuk has not put a foot wrong in recent times. Journos better learn to say and spell her name!

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