Stephen Murray relates on Twitter that a Galaxy poll of Victorian state voting intention in tomorrow’s Herald-Sun has Labor leading 52-48 with a little more than three months to go until the election, from primary votes of 38% for Labor, 40% for the Coalition, 12% for the Greens and 3% for Palmer United. Denis Napthine maintains a 41-33 lead over Daniel Andrews as preferred premier, and is ahead 39-38 on the question of who would best protect Victorian jobs.
Another question finds respondent considerably more keen on Labor’s policy of prioritising fixing level crossings when placed head-to-head with the government’s East West Link project, the respective results being 62% and 28%. Oddly enough, the poll finds a more positive result on the question of whether Victoria is heading in the right direction than was derived from the last poll in February, with “right direction” up eight to 51% and “wrong direction” down nine to 37%.
Most recent other Victorian poll was Neilsen at the end of July.
L/NP 49(+5) ALP 51(-5) was the last election preferences 2PP.
Respondent allocated had prefs at L/NP 46(+5) ALP 54(-5).
I presume the new Galaxy was 2010 preference distribution. Galaxy don’t provide respondant allocated preferences.
[Stephen Murray @smurray38
Tomorrow’s Herald Sun/Galaxy Poll – Preferred Premier: Denis Napthine 41 Dan(iel) Andrews 33 #SpringSt
9:43 PM – 17 Aug 2014
Stephen Murray @smurray38
Tomorrow’s Herald Sun/Galaxy Poll – Victoria headed in “right direction” 51 (+8 on Feb.) “Wrong direction” 37 (-9) #SpringSt
9:47 PM – 17 Aug 2014
Stephen Murray @smurray38
Tomorrow’s Herald Sun/Galaxy Poll: “Who would better protect Victorians’ jobs?” Napthine 39 Andrews 38 #SpringSt
9:49 PM – 17 Aug 2014]
[Stephen Murray @smurray38
Tomorrow’s Herald Sun/Galaxy Poll: Which policy is “more important”: Labor’s “fixing level crossings” 62 L/NP East West Link 28 #SpringSt
9:52 PM – 17 Aug 2014]
Perhaps people mean headed in right direction in getting a new government!
There hasn’t been a Victorian Reachtel poll since November 2013, but you can plot the primary votes as a bit of a conmparison, a change between Galaxy & the last Reachtel.
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7-news-melbourne-victorian-state-poll-november-2013
Th last bi-monthly Newspoll, covering a sample taken over May & June. Note the primaries over time.
http://resources.news.com.au/files/2014/06/25/1226966/978333-140626vicnewspoll.pdf
Essential Research polling up to May.
http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2014/05/31/essential-research-53-47-to-labor-in-victoria/
This is the February Galaxy poll the “right direction” question is benchmarked against. It was an issues only poll, at least in the paper, no voting intentions released.
http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/herald-sungalaxy-poll-reveals-airport-rail-link-our-top-priority/story-fnii5sms-1226843123689
4
My thoughts exactly.
The last full Galaxy Poll
http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/2627-feb-2014/
26/27 Feb 2014
Primary Vote
Election Nov 2010 26/27 Feb 2014
The Liberal Party 38.0% 37%
The Nationals 6.8% 5%
Total Coalition 44.8% 42%
Labor Party 36.2% 39%
The Greens 11.2% 12%
Other 7.8% 7%
6% uncommitted or refused excluded
Two party preferred
Election Nov 2010 26/27 Feb 2014
Coalition 51.6% 49%
Labor 48.4% 51%
I actually thought this one might be back toward about 50/50 after Labor’s messy last couple of weeks.
Should be a very interesting campaign.
Certainly shaping up to be close.
Wonder if we’ll start seeing some individual seat polls.
‘interesting’
really? I see it as battle of the blands – the winner of the Napthine and Andrews debate(s) will be the one with most supports in the audience who are still awake. Labor should romp this home, but at this stage andrews is not cutting through as a dynamic leader. I like him, but he needs some coaching on projecting leadership. Napthine has had effective coaching and compared to most libs comes across as an intelligent, thoughtful and small l lib on most issues. He’s also not from the lawyer/party hack background that most seem to be now. I expect he’ll pick some fights with abbott between now and november. The silly season in victoria starts within 6 weeks (footy finals, melbourne cup, christmas lead up), and labor need to re-establish their lead within that time or they’ll snatch defeat from the jaws of Victory. Napthine only needs to lose one seat (& Frankston will almost certainly go back to labor), and so he needs to win seats from labor. It will be interesting to see the dirty tricks the herald sun and Australian will play, although they’d probably be Ok with a moderate such as napthine to go, so they can get one of their tea party loons into the job and purge the party of moderates.
Based on Antony Green’s post election pendulum, this would translate to a comfortable ALP victory – a gain of around 9 seats for 49 to 39 in the Lower House- with the Greens most likely holding the BOP in the Legislative Council.
I was polled for this poll, last Thursday evening at about 7pm. They also asked whether Abbott’s gov had made it more likely less likely or no affect on voting for naphthalene.
Napthaline come’s across as a fumbling bumbling uncle, and Andrews has big ears, the reasonably smart kid at school but certainly not dux or school captain- easily forgotten.
Frankston is unknown- wouldn’t be suprised if lib hold. i would expect Carrum and maybe mordialloc to be regained first
http://www.news.com.au/national/victoria/herald-sungalaxy-poll-shows-alp-would-defeat-the-coalition-at-the-next-election-just-100-days-away/story-fnii5sms-1227027513602
[Herald Sun/Galaxy poll shows ALP would defeat the Coalition at the next election, just 100 days away
August 18, 2014 12:57AM
James Campbell State politics editor
Herald Sun
PREMIER Denis Napthine faces a massive challenge to overcome a four-point gap in the polls and win a second term in office.
With this week marking 100 days to the state election, a Herald Sun/Galaxy opinion poll has revealed Labor’s Daniel Andrews is on track to be Victoria’s next premier with the ALP holding a 52-48 per cent lead over the Napthine Government. The poll result, which Liberal and Labor strategists said was in line with their own polling, sets the scene for a bitter political fight in the lead-up to the November 29 election.]
http://www.news.com.au/news/opinion/coalition-put-on-notice/story-fni0ffsx-1227027294800
[Coalition put on notice
Editorial Herald Sun August 18, 2014 12:00AM]
http://www.news.com.au/news/victoria/time-is-running-out-for-the-napthine-govt-just-100-days-from-the-victorian-state-election/story-fnocy1xj-1227027516594
[Time is running out for the Napthine Govt just 100 days from the Victorian state election
James Campbell Herald Sun August 18, 2014 12:52AM]
12
The ALP currently hold 43 seats, so 49 seats is a gain of 6 seats.
Antony greens pendulum does not calculate which party is likely to win a ALP-Green marginal or ever which non-Coalition party will win a 3-way marginal. The Greens have a reasonable possibility of victory in 4 seats (Melbourne, Richmond, Brunswick and Prahran). That means the ALP have to win the 2PP (which they win in seats the Greens win, but loose the 2CP) in 49 seats in order to get enough seats to have a majority if the Greens win all 4 seats.
Only 28% of Victorians support the East-West Toll road.
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria-state-election-2014/herald-sungalaxy-poll-shows-alp-would-defeat-the-coalition-at-the-next-election-just-100-days-away/story-fnocxssc-1227027513602?nk=c5b21129faebf40d6f2637813a2a09ec
So why the hell wouldn’t the ALP reneg on it if signed? No one bloody wants it.
Tom@12-Yes – true: actually Antony’s post election pendulum has the ALP notionally on 40 seats post-redistribution – so that’s where the 9 came from. However some of those “were Labor”/”now notional Coalition” seats are likely to stay Labor. As a Greens supporter I hope the optimistic scenario of gains in the Legislative Assembly plays out; even one would be a good result. This poll has the Greens (at 12%) as marginally up on their 2010 result of 11.2% so we could go close….without wishing to reignite the tedious conversation about the Greens’ future election prospects that seems to do the rounds on the main Federal polling threads every now and again.
Full details of the Galaxy poll
http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/14-15-august/
[14-15 August
LABOR AHEAD WITH 100 DAYS TO GO IN VICTORIA
With around 100 days to election day the Labor Party has opened up a lead over the Coalition. However, while the Labor Party may enjoy an election winning lead, Denis Napthine is still considered a better option for Premier than Daniel Andrews.]
I think the Greens will possibly win 1, but even that’s not a lock.
But a lot of people around the Federal seat of Melbourne do really think a lot of Adam Bandt – so I’d expect some of that ‘trust’ to translate to their State candidates. But just not to the extent of winning all 4 seats targeted.
However it will certainly be interesting to see just how many resources the ALP devote to the inner city seats.
I expect the policy rhetoric and advertising will be targeting the outer suburbs and regional centres, with a few carrots for the inner city. E.G. The newly announced proposal for Richmond High School is a good news story for them and Richard Wynne.
I think it’s worth pointing out that despite the seat of Melbourne being the tightest in terms of ALP vs Green, the incumbent, Labor’s Jennifer Kanis, will probably/possibly benefit from the sophomore effect. I also think Bronwyn Pyke was carrying a bit of baggage from her ministerial titles into the 2010 election which probably didn’t help her (whether that registered in her own seat rather than elsewhere I guess could be debated).
The next closest is Brunswick which requires about 4% for the Greens to win, and I don’t think Jane Garrett will struggle to hold it, but if any seat were to go to the Greens, I imagine it would be this one.
I don’t think Prahran is anywhere close to going Green and think it will be gained by Neil Pharaoh for Labor reasonably easily. He has a strong presence in the local community, particularly Prahran and Windsor themselves, a well resourced campaign and a very active and energised campaign team. Makes me a bit jealous really, we don’t quite get the same treatment out east.
I’ve been thinking further about how an election might turn out and think I’ll hazard specific-ish predictions.
Largely static result in the western suburbs, average swing to Labor, winning no seats as they hold them all already. Hold Yan-Yean and Eltham. Regional and rural Victoria similar, possible negative swim with the possible loss of Ripon. Labor hold for Wendouree (Ballarat West) and a slight swing to Labor in Ballarat, Bendigo and Geelong, hut below state average. Funny things may happen in Morwell and Narracan.
Large pro-Labor swings in the southern and eastern suburbs winning the Frankston line, Forest Hill, and either/neither Burwood or Ringwood. Bayswater no hope. Liberal margins slashed in Croydon, Evelyn, Ferntree Gully etc but far short of actually winning the seats seats.
That’s just my feeling right now. Thought I’d try my hand despite a long policy of not making such predictions 😉
[Makes me a bit jealous really, we don’t quite get the same treatment out east.]
It doesn’t help that we only have one sitting Lower House MP out this way, Merlino (deputy Labor leader) in Monbulk, who can only really do so much, there being so many seats, his responsibilities as deputy and the depths of conservatism in the east outside the Hills and isolated pockets like Healesville and Warburton.
A Freudian slip by Denis Napthine or is he a closet supporter of better transport?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K4pR0knA4Xg
20
If the East-West Link contracts are signed and the ALP goes into the election without promising to cancel the East-West Link, then the Greens will mercilessly use that fact to attack the ALP and it would likely swing the campaign in favour of the Greens in Melbourne, Richmond and Brunswick (Northcote has a higher margin). It may help in Prahran as well. It only takes a swing of a few percent, from the ALP to the Greens, in Prahran to put the ALP in 3rd and have the Greens battling it out with the Liberals for 1st.
I think that the Western and Northern suburbs will swing to the ALP because the current government has so obviously and shamelessly governed for the South/East of the Yarra. This would cost the Liberals their second seat in Western Metro Region (won narrowly at the last election) with the Liberals second seat in Northern Metro having been lost in the redistribution (specifically the movement of Ivanhoe to Eastern Metro, making both regions better for the ALP).
I agree the ALP may well loose Ripon. Narracan and especially Morwell will be interesting.