Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland

After a shaky result for the LNP in yesterday’s state poll, today’s federal follow-up brings even worse news from Queensland for the Abbott government.

Tomorrow’s Courier-Mail carries results of a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, going off the same sample as yesterday’s state poll, and it’s the first of four such polls since the election to show Labor in front. Labor’s 51-49 lead on two-party preferred represents an 8% swing from last year’s federal election, and a three-point shift to Labor from the previous result in February. It also sits well with the current reading from BludgerTrack, suggesting serious problems for the government in what may be the most important state in the country in terms of marginal seats. Primary votes and such to follow shortly. UPDATE: The primary votes are 38% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 8% for the Greens and 12% for Palmer United. The poll also finds 36% believe the Abbott government has lived up to expectations, down nine points since February, 56% believe it has performed below them, up nine points, and 4% believe it has been better, down two.

UPDATE (Essential Research): The regular weekly result from Essential Research has both major parties down a point on the primary vote, to 40% for the Coalition and 38% for Labor, and the two main minor parties up one, the Greens to 9% and Palmer United to 6%. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred to lead 52-48. Further questions find a remarkable 43% saying the government should respond to its budget difficulties by calling an election, the breakdowns for party support suggesting this mostly bespeaks a desire to get rid of the government rather than secure the passage of its budget. Thirty-eight per cent say they would rather a new budget be introduced, including a majority among Coalition supporters. I’m not sure if the availability of only two options together with “don’t know” succeeds in capturing the full range of opinion on the subject.

Other questions find opinion on the state of the economy little changed since April, with a good rating of 37% (down one) and a poor rating of 26% (up two), but more thinking it headed in the wrong direction, up seven to 41% with “right direction” down four to 35%. Concern about job losses is up a point to 58%, with the “not at all concerned” response up three to 32%. Twenty-one per cent say the impact of the budget on employment will be good versus 49% for bad. Sixty per cent disapprove of sending troops to Iraq versus 28% who approve, and 36% believe current spending on anti-terrorism measures is about right, compared with 28% who want more and 19% who want less.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,126 thoughts on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Labor in Queensland”

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  3. Try twenty somethings and younger.

    How many “twenty somethings” do you really think are interested in your inane maundering?

  4. I’m back dahlinks! I got engaged whilst I was away from you, next year I will be a respectable married woman!

    I thought you had been sent to a twilight facility!

  6. An email from Bill Shorten –

    Bemused,
    Tomorrow marks 100 days since Tony Abbott and the Coalition revealed their true colours to the nation.

    Many of us suspected it, and the Budget confirmed our worst fears: having lied to win power, the new Government’s real agenda was to create an unfair Australia for the privileged few.

    That’s not the Australia I believe in. It’s not the Australia Labor believes in. And I know it’s not the Australia you believe in.

    And over these past 100 days, you have proved how hard you’re willing to fight Abbott’s unfair Budget: over 113,000 of you have signed petitions, from the GP tax to education cuts to ABC funding, and thousands attended rallies against the Budget. Volunteers have made over 38,000 phone calls to voters informing them of the damage the Budget would wreak, and you have donated tens of thousands of dollars to air TV ads doing the same.

    Thank you.

    We still have much to do if we are to stand in the way of Tony Abbott’s backward vision for an Australia that destroys the fair go, but thanks largely to your efforts we are already well under way.

    It has been a truly amazing community response. And a sorely needed one: if we do nothing when our schools and hospitals are slashed, and our pensioners, job seekers, students and parents are cast aside, then the whole nation suffers.

    When we stand together, when we speak with one voice, we can defeat this Government’s extreme ideological agenda.

    Our fight has only just begun. As long as Tony Abbott, Joe Hockey, Chris Pyne and their colleagues are in power, our fundamental Australian values are under threat.

    We know that together, we can stare down this Budget. Thanks for helping prove that, and I look forward to fighting the good fight with you as we continue into the next 100 days.

    Thanks for standing with me on this,

    Bill

  7. Bit of a conversation stopped, Bemused.

    I start up the odd fight, but you sir are a master at giving, and taking offence.

    Just wondering why you bother coming here as you seem to like no-one, and no-one likes you?

  8. pBemused,
    Tomorrow marks 100 days since Tony Abbott and the Coalition revealed their true colours to the nation.

    Many of us suspected it, and the Budget confirmed our worst fears: having lied to win power, the new Government’s real agenda was to create an unfair Australia for the privileged few.

    Remember when Fact Check denounced Kevin Rudd (in his second iteration as PM) for rank exaggeration over Coalition cuts?

    Kevin was dreaming… it was a lot WORSE than even he could imagine.

  9. EStJ

    I’m back dahlinks! I got engaged whilst I was away from you, next year I will be a respectable married woman!

    I find that implausible. You’re never going to be respectable.

  10. Matt Thompson ‏@MattThompson 2m
    Carlton says Jeff Garlett has this evening been charged with affray in relation to an incident in the early hours of Sunday August 3.

    A bit off topic, but someone in austhority at Carlton needs a boot up the backside

  11. psyclaw

    see my previous posts…

    —-

    Just back from a branch meeting, but it seems that bemused and others are perfectly happy to keep arguing with me even when I’m not there.

    Ah well, it makes me feel that I serve a useful social purpose. They’d probably be kicking kittens or biting the heads off chickens otherwise.

    (Thinks: dear me, I’m beginning to sound like ML……)

  12. Tom, bemused

    The only people who will benefit from the EW link and willing to pay the (road toll) price are those who need to get across from the Eastern onto the Tulla, Western and Geelong (or the reverse), i.e. trucking transportation companies such as Toll, etc.

  14. Bushfire Bill@1007

    Bit of a conversation stopped, Bemused.

    I start up the odd fight, but you sir are a master at giving, and taking offence.

    Just wondering why you bother coming here as you seem to like no-one, and no-one likes you?

    Well that’s your opinion and it is inaccurate at that.

    I actually like most who post on PB. Even you have your moments.

    Naturally I will occasional have a different view on issues.

  16. I will also add that no, I’m not singing off any hymn sheet. I certainly haven’t discussed this issue with anyone in the party. As always, my comments and opinions are my own, arrived at as a result of my own experiences and research.

    Of course my opinions and Labor’s will often coincide. It would be strange if I belonged to a party where that didn’t happen.

  17. Raaraa@1012

    Tom, bemused

    The only people who will benefit from the EW link and willing to pay the (road toll) price are those who need to get across from the Eastern onto the Tulla, Western and Geelong (or the reverse), i.e. trucking transportation companies such as Toll, etc.

    It might help to get to the airport a bit quicker but otherwise will not benefit most people.

  18. zoomster@1011

    psyclaw

    see my previous posts…

    —-

    Just back from a branch meeting, but it seems that bemused and others are perfectly happy to keep arguing with me even when I’m not there.

    Ah well, it makes me feel that I serve a useful social purpose. They’d probably be kicking kittens or biting the heads off chickens otherwise.

    (Thinks: dear me, I’m beginning to sound like ML……)

    OK, in future be sure to keep me informed of your movements so I will not refer to you or any issues you have been involved in during your absence. OK?

  20. An email from the Victorian ALP State Secretary –

    Bemused

    In just 100 days Victorians will go to the polls to decide the next state government.

    We have an historic challenge in front of us: to make the Napthine Liberals a one-term government.

    Volunteers have already had over 200,000 personal conversations with voters in the past three months. It’s a simple equation – the more personal contact with voters, the more who will hear Labor’s positive vision for a government that puts people first.

    But all this costs money. By donating just $10, you will help us reach 100 more Victorians who will be on their own under the Liberals.

    Will you donate today? – https://www.viclabor.com.au/donate/

    Together we can change the government.

    Thanks,

    Noah Carroll
    State Secretary
    Victorian Labor

    PS. There are lots and lots of ways to contribute to the campaign. If you would rather volunteer – please sign up today at http://www.thisislabor.org

    So any non-member supporters are welcome to respond to this email and help remove the Libs.

  27. Read them and be wiser … or at least a little less ill-informed and stupid.

    I don’t think the e-mails are going to help you much on this point.

  29. Yes, you are starting to sound like Mad Lib. Off you go now and have a good cry.

    Sad. Are you about to start carrying on about the misandry of PB again?

  30. @edj/1022

    Turnbull still spams me with email, so what you complaining about? (with eNews).

    The last one he sent was 31/03/2014 Was complaining about the so called debt and deficit Labor left, then whinged about Labor’s NBN by having stacked reviews and stacked NBN Board.

  31. Player One@1028

    Read them and be wiser … or at least a little less ill-informed and stupid.


    It doesn’t seem to be working for you.

    Yep, just what I would expect from you. Another smart arse comment from someone with nothing else to contribute.

  34. George Megalogenis @GMegalogenis · 7h
    Pandering to Palmer not only makes the PM look weak domestically, it creates impression in region that Clive’s race cards are govt. policy.

    Reckon Abbott might be between a rock and a hard place on PUP, as Howard was with One Nation.

    But is the current coalition govt in a position to simply absorb much of the PUP policy position in the same way it did ON, thereby neutralising it? Not sure. And remember that Howard was a far more slick Liberal leader than Abbott has shown himself to be.

  36. Player One@1029

    Yes, you are starting to sound like Mad Lib. Off you go now and have a good cry.


    Sad. Are you about to start carrying on about the misandry of PB again?

    I am happy to call it out whenever it appears, like it did last night.

  37. The Piping Shrike @Piping_Shrike · 10m
    Australian PM once again discovers best antidote to failure at home is try overseas. Less questions asked.

  38. fess

    But is the current coalition govt in a position to simply absorb much of the PUP policy position in the same way it did ON, thereby neutralising it?

    I wonder how much of the PUP pronouncements are those the Lib/Nats make behind closed doors. After all, that’s where Palmer’s come from. I’d be fairly sure that (apart, perhaps, from the climate change stuff) Clive’s attitudes and opinions are still largely unchanged from his Lib/Nat days.

  43. Reckon Abbott might be between a rock and a hard place on PUP, as Howard was with One Nation.
    But is the current coalition govt in a position to simply absorb much of the PUP policy position in the same way it did ON, thereby neutralising it? Not sure. And remember that Howard was a far more slick Liberal leader than Abbott has shown himself to be.

    Part of that strategy was not only to absorb ON policy, it also involved gaoling its leader — don’t forget who led that charge.

    Palmer might want to ensure he has criminal lawyers on his books just in case!

  44. zoomster:

    Yes, I’ve suspected the same thing myself, esp about Palmer. But that said, the coalition has boxed itself into a corner on so many issues that it would make it hard for them to try to outmaneuver PUP.

  47. Yes, bemused. I was called in to ‘save’ the branch (it’s not my own) several months ago. Things seem to be working out rather well.

  48. Labor’s mistake in government was not gaoling Dr Brown or Milne. They would have been able to neutralise the Greens similar to how One Nation was dispensed with by the Coalition.

    The Coalition will always be more ruthless than Labor.

  50. zoomster@1047

    Yes, bemused. I was called in to ‘save’ the branch (it’s not my own) several months ago. Things seem to be working out rather well.

    Always good fun helping a branch recover. And a challenge too.

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