BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

Another placid week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, suggesting a new equilibrium has been struck between the government’s budget disaster and MH17 recovery.

The only national poll this week was the regular weekly Essential Research, which is joined in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate by Galaxy’s result from Queensland. That adds up to no change whatsoever on two-party preferred, but the Greens are up on the primary vote at Labor’s expense. There’s some shifting of the deckchairs on the seat projection, with Labor down one in New South Wales and Victoria and up one in Queensland and Western Australia, but it cancels out on the total score. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings, which serves as a sad reminder that in the past we would have expected Nielsen to come due this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 17 of 21
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  1. [ Well actually according to Kelly and others Rudd did agree to voluntarily go in three months if the polling was still bad. ]

    I dispute your sources, but that doesn’t really matter. Rudd would just have used any such position to scheme incessantly to return to the top job. You want proof? Well, that’s in fact exactly what he did!

  2. For a change of topic: Colgate have been handing out “Total” toothpaste to hospitals like lollies.

    [Studies have shown links between triclosan and disrupted hormonal development, a reduction in bacterial resistance and an increase in allergies.

    Australian experts have defended the product, the only toothpaste on the Australian market that contains triclosan.

    They say the chemical has been proven to fight gingivitis, gum bleeding and inflammation. . .

    But controversy over the chemical has existed for some time. Apart from the toothpaste, it is found in kitchenware, sanitation and toys.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/colgate-total-toothpaste-under-scrutiny-over-ingredient-20140821-1062ws.html#ixzz3B56vaQiT

  3. [This is a serious quetion – not trying to start old wars
    Who do you think should have been made leader in 2006? What realistic choice was there?
    Remember that Gillard was of the left and in 2006 did not have a chance, Shorten and Combet were still newcomers.
    Smith and Swan maybe but I doubt either could have bested Howard.]

    Rudd didn’t win through his own effort – Howard and work choices lost. I think almost any labor leader would have won that election. But in terms of best PM I’d go with in order Beazley, Smith, Swan and put all three ahead of Rudd and Gillard.

  4. Pegasus@790

    zoomster,

    Despite Socrates posting damning comments about you and your posts on E-W link, as well accusing you of lying, good to see you do not accuse him of not being able to read and wtte how you showed him up, as you think you did me

    By the way, when you accused me, in your usual condescending way of “galloping off into the sunset”, I had a funeral of a much respected and loved local environmentalist and friend to prepare for and attend.

    But I expect nothing less than your usual snarkiness when you are presented with credible opinions and evidence from experts who contradict what you are trying to spin and know more than you on a given issue or subject.

    It hurts me to agree with a Green in opposition to an ALP member. But zoomster just makes it easier every day. 🙁

  5. Nicholas

    the Greens may do all those lovely things NOW. I doubt that the same would apply if they ever became a major party.

    The evidence from overseas experiences seems to be that once Green parties actually get into power, they quickly adopt practices similar to other major parties.

    At present, the democratic structure of the Greens actually impedes progress in many cases. (I have used the example of wind farms in the past: it was true for a long time that the Greens made no statements of support in favour of them, because they couldn’t resolve the conflict within their own membership between the NIMBYs and the environmentalists).

    This doesn’t matter in practice, because no one really gives a tinker’s cuss about Green policies – even many of those who vote for them.

  6. DTD

    [What realistic choice was there?]

    Gillard should have been pressed to use her Caucas support at that time. Her reluctance to actually be Leader has played out over the last 8 years.

    Thing would’ve been much cleaner that way.

  7. zoomster

    Posted Friday, August 22, 2014 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    AA

    My father grew up in Vilkaviskas (think that’s right) near Vilnius.

    He never talked much about his life in Lithuania. He left home to fight when he was seventeen and was never able to go back. His parents thought he was dead for almost a decade.

    I did get to meet my aunts – they came out when he was dying – but the language barrier meant I wasn’t any the wiser about Lithuanian life when they left!
    ===================================================

    Sounds like your experience was similar to my own. Left Lithuania after Grandfather, two Uncles executed by the Russians as Partisans fighting Russian Occupation.

    Thought all family gone. They found us after searching Facebook. Went back 2 years ago. Great reunion, sadly my Dad passed away before this happened.

  8. From Twitter:

    If Pell thinks church has as much responsibility for staff as truck co. then it should pay tax like a truck company.

    😀

  9. Good to see Turnbull supporting Shorten and the Libs seem to be steering clear of the topic which should die pretty quickly.

  10. [810
    Diogenes
    Posted Friday, August 22, 2014 at 11:58 am | PERMALINK
    Good to see Turnbull supporting Shorten and the Libs seem to be steering clear of the topic which should die pretty quickly.]

    You mean like the Oz did with JGillard and the AWU matter?

  11. Player One@811

    It hurts me to agree with a Green in opposition to an ALP member.


    Then why do you do it so often?

    Because some ALP members and supporters here say stupid things at times. Unfortunately.

  12. WWP

    I am not sure i agree with you regarding howard. he was a wiley bugger.

    Rudd brought Qld seats plus Bennelong, however I do agree that some other leaders might have won.

    However Beazley was passed it. He could not have won against Howard. Nice enough guy I grant you but his best chance was 2001 and he missed. Bringing him back was a defeatist ALP move.

    Smith and Swan the two roosters certainly believed they were leadership material. While each might have won against some Lib leaders I rather doubt either could have matched Howard. Now Smith would be an ideal leader against Abbott – the smooth calm and sensible versus the nutter. Sorry he has gone. I do not rule out the possibility he would have been a better choice than Rudd.

    I think Swan has an overblown sense of his own ability. He is not wily enough to have defeated Howard and too dull to have brought Qld with him.

  13. [bemused
    Posted Friday, August 22, 2014 at 12:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Player One@811

    It hurts me to agree with a Green in opposition to an ALP member.

    Then why do you do it so often?

    Because some ALP members and supporters here say stupid things at times. Unfortunately.]

    As opposed to the Greens who never say anything stupid?

  14. [ Because some ALP members and supporters here say stupid things at times. Unfortunately. ]

    Yes, I’ve noticed. You and WeWantPaul, for instance.

  15. zoomster

    Posted Friday, August 22, 2014 at 11:45 am | Permalink

    AA

    My father grew up in Vilkaviskas (think that’s right) near Vilnius.
    ==================================================

    Close to the border and probably closer to Vilanus. Nice street views on Google.

  16. haircut, shopping for food, ran out of bacon, and more stuff to do in readiness for trip to Wallabies v All Blacks in Brisbane.

  17. victoria@815

    bemused
    Posted Friday, August 22, 2014 at 12:02 pm | PERMALINK
    Player One@811

    It hurts me to agree with a Green in opposition to an ALP member.

    Then why do you do it so often?

    Because some ALP members and supporters here say stupid things at times. Unfortunately.


    As opposed to the Greens who never say anything stupid?

    It goes without saying that I enjoy bashing Greens as I often do. It usually takes a real talent to make statements more ridiculous than a Green, but there are a few here who manage it regularly.

    Also, on occasions Greens say something sensible but then tack on some Greens propaganda or a gratuitous attack on the ALP. An example is the comment by Nicholas which was fairly accurate until his last 2 paragraphs.

  18. Player One@816

    Because some ALP members and supporters here say stupid things at times. Unfortunately.


    Yes, I’ve noticed. You and WeWantPaul, for instance.

    As opposed to you who is invariably stupid.

  19. dtt

    It came as a shock to me, too – but there had been media pieces about a challenge for months.

    In fact, I had considerable egg on my face – I had spent a couple of hours in a car with some local conservatives weeks before, who told me Rudd was gone. I had argued quite passionately that that was ridiculous.

    Next time I saw them they were very smug about it!

    Remember also that Rudd has his people doing the numbers days in advance.

    The media knew something was happening months before.

    Regardless, a leader who is apparently oblivious to discontent within his own party obviously has some kind of problem – he’s either not connecting with colleagues, they’re too afraid to talk to them, he doesn’t listen when he’s told, or something similar. A good leader doesn’t get plotted against, either because he’s performing well or because he has the nous to pick up on concerns and act on them before they get serious.

  20. [Posted Friday, August 22, 2014 at 12:04 pm | PERMALINK
    Because some ALP members and supporters here say stupid things at times. Unfortunately.
    Yes, I’ve noticed. You and WeWantPaul, for instance.]

    Yes I have consistently failed the Frank test of ALP solidarity. Blind cult like support without thought or question is not my thing even when I was a member. Now I’m not even a member there is even less reason to say stupid things. That however does not make me a liberal supporter any more than it makes me a green support or a PUP supporter.

    I strongly believe politics should be more local in Australia and I would support libs I know are good at local government level and even at state level if the local candidate was good. I rarely have real dilemma good liberal candidates are about as rare as good union secretarys. I think both are probably myths. Having said that I have a great deal of time for John Day and had for Mal Washer.

  21. As time goes by, more and more acknowledge that the removal of Rudd was a huge mistake.

    Those still in denial are like investors holding onto stocks like Tatts and TABCORP that are going down to the deep blue sea.

    Jump while you can (Gillard supporters), the water is level with 6 deck 😎

  22. [ As opposed to you who is invariably stupid. ]

    You just dislike it when someone points out the inconsistencies or untruths spouted by you and your factional buddies.

    Fun as it can be to burst your little bubbles, I do wish you would take your internecine ALP factional wars – where it is apparent that your hatred of members of your own party far outweighs your mild distaste for the members of other political parties – elsewhere for a change.

  23. [ As time goes by, more and more acknowledge that the removal of Rudd was a huge mistake. ]

    Did I miss an announcement?

    Is it, “Rudd Rehabilitation” day here on PB today or something?

  24. victoria@828

    Bemused

    Where did you hear that about Ballieu?

    774.
    He is supposed to be making an announcement shortly.
    My suspicion is that it will be to make way for Mary Woolridge who is currently stranded without a seat to contest.

  25. [Howard and work choices lost. I think almost any labor leader would have won that election.]

    No, Labor had to switch from Beaz to Rudd who stood up to the mark expertly and won.

  26. Centre

    it was only a mistake because Rudd was even worse than they thought. It’s really hard to comprehend the lengths he was prepared to go to to destroy a government he was part of.

    I can’t think of any deposed leader who behaved in that extreme fashion.

    No one could have predicted that. It’s all with hindsight that Rudd’s level of vindictiveness is apparent.

  27. CTari

    I assume you are not an ALP member!!! If you were then you would know this.

    Gillard in 2006 was NOT in in contention. Not only was she a woman, but she was of the ah!!!!!!!!! LEFT. Gillard had numbers but the very best she could get was Deputy. It was only AFTER she was deputy and acting PM that she began to be seen as PM material. It was only after she did a deal with the right – effectively joining them that she became electable as PM. So realistically Gillard was not an option in 2006. Nor were any other members of the left. Here is the Shadow Cabinet 2006. Choices were limited to these:

    Kim Beazley – Passed it
    Jenny Macklin – Left woman
    Senator Chris Evans – Senator and left
    Senator Stephen Conroy
    Wayne Swan
    Senator Nick Sherry
    Simon Crean
    Julia Gillard (left, woman)
    Stephen Smith
    Lindsay Tanner (left – by far the best choice but too left)
    Kevin Rudd
    Tony Burke (still quite young and new)
    Robert McClelland (hm!!! bit dull)
    Arch Bevis (not very senior)
    Laurie Ferguson (left and not senior)
    Senator Kim Carr
    Kelvin Thompson Non factional and no support from anyone – a bit dull in presentation)
    Tanya Plibersek (left woman, very junior
    Anthony Albanese (left and junior)
    Senator Penny Wong
    Senator Kerry O’Brien
    Joel Fitzgibbon (very junior)
    Nicola Roxon (woman and junior)
    Gavan O’Connor (who was he)
    Senator Kate Lundy
    Alan griffin (too junior)
    Senator Mark Bishop
    Senator Jan McLucas
    Senator Joe Ludwig
    Bob Sercombe (ageing, left and out of touch)
    Senator Annette Hurley

    Once you rule out senators, lefties, women and those who were very junior (lower third of the list) you are left with:
    Swan
    Crean
    Smith
    Rudd
    Burke
    Maclelland
    Bevis

  28. Player One@830

    As opposed to you who is invariably stupid.


    You just dislike it when someone points out the inconsistencies or untruths spouted by you and your factional buddies.

    Fun as it can be to burst your little bubbles, I do wish you would take your internecine ALP factional wars – where it is apparent that your hatred of members of your own party far outweighs your mild distaste for the members of other political parties – elsewhere for a change.

    Wrong as usual. You are becoming like confessions.
    I have no ‘factional buddies’ and do not give allegiance to any faction.
    I don’t ‘hate’ any members of my party, nor do I engage in factional wars. I praise or am critical of policies or decisions as I evaluate them and irrespective of who is behind them.

  29. zoomster@835

    Centre

    it was only a mistake because Rudd was even worse than they thought. It’s really hard to comprehend the lengths he was prepared to go to to destroy a government he was part of.

    I can’t think of any deposed leader who behaved in that extreme fashion.

    No one could have predicted that. It’s all with hindsight that Rudd’s level of vindictiveness is apparent.

    Try Gillard.

    Even as PM she was announcing stupid decisions such as ‘cash for clunkers’, ‘citizens assembly’ and ‘real Julia’ which subjected her, her government and party to ridicule. Not a bad effort for a ‘leader’.

  30. [ I have no ‘factional buddies’ and do not give allegiance to any faction. ]

    Nobody here believes that, bemused.

    (Sorry, William – last one, I promise!)

  31. bemused

    [Try Gillard.

    Even as PM she was announcing stupid decisions such as ‘cash for clunkers’, ‘citizens assembly’ and ‘real Julia’ which subjected her, her government and party to ridicule. Not a bad effort for a ‘leader’.]

    Er, what has that to do with my post to Centre – which is about vindictiveness?

  32. I would rather announcing stupid decisions, such as Rudd’s health policy, and ridicule, such as Rudd throwing a tantrum over a hairdryer when in Afghanistan, to leaking, treachery and ruining an ALP government to satisfy a personal vendetta, as Rudd did to get back the PMship.

  33. Player One@841

    I have no ‘factional buddies’ and do not give allegiance to any faction.


    Nobody here believes that, bemused.

    (Sorry, William – last one, I promise!)

    You are free to believe the delusion of your choice, but don’t pretend to speak on behalf of others.

  34. zoomster

    Rudd was good enough to avoid a near certainty predicted recession and an unemployment rate of more than 8%.

    Yes, Rudd made mistakes with his pink batts scheme, listening to Gillard to shy away from the CPRS and Swan to implement their mining tax.

    The only people who behaved in an extreme fashion were those who removed him.

    If your government has problems you should solve them without committing hari kari!

  35. zoomster@842

    bemused

    Try Gillard.

    Even as PM she was announcing stupid decisions such as ‘cash for clunkers’, ‘citizens assembly’ and ‘real Julia’ which subjected her, her government and party to ridicule. Not a bad effort for a ‘leader’.


    Er, what has that to do with my post to Centre – which is about vindictiveness?

    Errr… you made reference to ‘lengths he was prepared to go to destroy a government he was part of’.

    I was showing how Gillard was actively doing so while supposedly leading a government.

    I could also have thrown in a lot of other things like the stupid admission about a ‘carbon tax’.

    Tony Abbotts greatest helper.

  36. CTar1

    [Melham a serious idiot. That’s as polite as I can be about him.]

    Go ahead and say more – I ran his first campaign and could tell you lots of things about him.

  37. BK@846

    Would the likes of Lindsay Fox set up a paedophile protection unit if a cabal of his truck drivers offended? I think not!

    That was, at best, a bizarre attempted analogy.

  38. Puff

    Your comment is a worry.

    PMs do not have the right to announce stupid policies!!!!!

    Lots of PMs throw tanties. It does not make them bad PMs or leaders.

    What do you say to Shorten leaking to Cassidy about Rudd, trying to bring down the Rudd government. Shorten did EXACTLY the same to Rudd and Rudd did to Gillard. Why is one a hero and the other a devil? I say it is politics!!!

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