The only national poll this week was the regular weekly Essential Research, which is joined in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate by Galaxy’s result from Queensland. That adds up to no change whatsoever on two-party preferred, but the Greens are up on the primary vote at Labor’s expense. There’s some shifting of the deckchairs on the seat projection, with Labor down one in New South Wales and Victoria and up one in Queensland and Western Australia, but it cancels out on the total score. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings, which serves as a sad reminder that in the past we would have expected Nielsen to come due this week.
victoria@695
Tongues yet?
jeffemu
Forgive my sarcasm please!
[You can always tell when the LNP is due to have a bad day in the media – regular as clockwork, the same people here on PB will initiate another round of Rudd/Gillard wars.]
You make some pretty large leaps to get from your assumptions to your conclusion – facts not necessary – but as I think I’m the one who provoked today’s discussion I can assure you this conclusion is even less sound than most you draw. It is absurd.
[ You make some pretty large leaps to get from your assumptions to your conclusion – facts not necessary – but as I think I’m the one who provoked today’s discussion I can assure you this conclusion is even less sound than most you draw. It is absurd. ]
Absurd or not – I’m not the only one who’s noticed.
Unaccompanied minors sent to Nauru. Hockey stated this would happen over his dead body.
S’pose one can just dream
(And I mean political dead body not actual death)
Fabulous terminology in this 1933 South Melbourne Swans scoresheet
@sydneyswans: Found this 1933 GF stat sheet; think McVeigh & Malceski would go alright in the ‘passed to comrade’ column these days http://t.co/YkhV9KQ1eM
Fuel Tax Credits is higher than Newstart Payments:
http://www.aph.gov.au/~/media/05%20About%20Parliament/54%20Parliamentary%20Depts/548%20Parliamentary%20Budget%20Office/Reports/02-2014%20Projections%20of%20Government%20spending%20over%20the%20medium%20term/Report%2002_2014%20Projections%20of%20Australian%20Government%20spending%20over%20the%20medium%20term.pdf
AS well as Private Health Insurance Rebate is higher than Disability Pension, Higher Education, Schools and Age Pension, Public Hospitials
Page 14
Labor has not moral high ground on the management of asylum seekers.
Morrison is implementing their offshore processing program
zoomster@721
OK, so now we have it officially.
ZOOMSTER ENDORSES LYING AND TREACHERY IN POLITICS!
We can now read all your posts through that prism.
“@ABCnewsIntern: News 24 cut from the #hrinquiry to men in blue ties standing in front of a hole.”
“@mckinnon_a: “More than 90 percent” of refugees in community “aren’t going to get a job” – Morrison #HRInquiry”
[ OK, so now we have it officially.
ZOOMSTER ENDORSES LYING AND TREACHERY IN POLITICS!
We can now read all your posts through that prism. ]
Jeez, you really have it bad, bemused!
ABC 24 really is a clapped out joke.
No fan of Abbott, but there is no point interrupting his presser with an ad for another ABC program. What is the point of a national broadcaster if it is more concerned with advertisements than bringing us live coverage of political events?
Sell the bugger off.
A few nice little “Dorothy Dixers” for Morrison as the Commission adjourns
[Absurd or not – I’m not the only one who’s noticed.]
I have little concern how many people are with you in clown land. You observed a link between a ‘bad media day’ and the discussion based on the report of Smiths comments.
firstly the day isn’t over I have no idea why you’d assume a day that hasn’t even got to lunchtime will be a bad media day for the government. It was 5.15 in the morning I was listening to the radio trying to find matching cuff links and a jumper to wear when I heard the story about Smiths comments. I had not for a second anticipated any media let alone deduced that today would be a bad media day for the Govt.
Second in the list of absurdities the reality is the govt has very few bad media days. At the moment it is running a terrorist scare campaign with a side of racist dog whistle and the support of the media. Like many here I hope it fails for the government but unless hockey is out smoking cigars and running over poor people today I would be surprised if it was a bad media day for the govt.
As an aside, no let’s have it as the third absurdity – as much as I love PB and have been here since ozpolitics shutdown I’m here to discuss and debate politics and polling – I think the net impact potential of PB to change votes is unlikely to get to a single vote when rounded up regardless of the media day the govt or opposition is having. Much as I prefer the PB world where through the work day I can check and be pretty sure someone will tell me how great labor is doing when I foolishly venture into the real world the news of the day almost never matches the news in PB. In particular I remember enjoying the delight here in PB about the then Labor Governments triumphant destruction of Abbott in question time only to get into my car to find out the real world doesn’t even know there was a question time that day.
I’d like some of the drugs you are taking – here is much better than the real world and your drugs clearly make it even better.
Wayne Swan will be on the conversation hour after 11 am
http://www.abc.net.au/melbourne/programs/listenlive.htm
WWP
You started today’s round of Rudd revisionism, based on a Murdoch writer’s regurgitated story on the debased ABC, admittedly while you were half asleep.
If you must start such stories (and your timing is indeed suspicious), then at least have a better grounding than an “ABC says Murdoch said” story heard in bed.
With regards
Darren
[593
Henry
Debt has doubled under the libs zoidy hasn’t it?]
Deficit, I think. But the debt has increased by a big chunk too.
UK Housing Prices on the rise again, Poor people can’t afford to buy:
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/aug/19/uk-house-prices-record-high
“The Office for National Statistics data showed the annual growth rate had fallen from 10.4% in May, but prices rose by 0.5% on the month to a record £265,000 for the average property.”
WWP
I agree with you about the bad media days. Abbott gets good media generally though I have noticed some change.
A change caused by the fact reality always overtakes narrative. Its fact the budget is going down like a lead balloon by the voters and those voters are not buying the LNP or media allies narrative of why they have to suck it up.
Just Me@768
That is my recollection too.
They also removed the debt ceiling so now ‘the sky’s the limit’! Hardly the conduct one would expect from a government making a big issue of debt and deficit!
dtt
[The problem is that it obviously WAS unexpected by Rudd which was not the case with Hawke or Baillieu. There had not been months of journalist hyping up stories of a coup.]
I don’t think Ballieu had months of warning!
As for journalists hyping up stories of a coup, if they hadn’t been, why did Gillard have to repeatedly stave off suggestions she would challenge? (Hence the ‘more likely to play for the Bulldogs’ remark).
The point is that this stuff happens in politics, all the time. It’s part of the landscape. As a good party member, you’re expected to pick yourself off the floor, dust yourself down and start fighting for your side regardless.
I know of literally dozens of examples of people who have been rolled by the party who have then gone on to help the person put in their place win.
People tend to view this scenario in the light of how they would react, but the normal person isn’t a politician and hasn’t gone through the processes pollies do to get there.
Rudd’s inability to react appropriately simply proved he wasn’t really part of the party. (Interestingly, many people immediately post coup saw that as the problem). Given that the party made him PM to begin with, that shows a certain lack of respect.
Debt is now up around $340 billion, increased close to $60 billion since Abbott came to power.
6 years of Labor and a GFC, around $280billion of debt. Call that around $40B a tear. Abbott is running at over $60B a year.
bemused is shocked to find that there is lying and treachery in politics.
Read all his sage prognostations about political events in that light.
All those years in the party and it appears he is still a starry eyed naif.
WWP
You make sense
There are some tin foil wearing ALP hacks on here who think to speak ill of Gillard is akin to Satan worship.
Mind you I now suspect one of the chief hate Rudd stirrers was not pro ALP or only marginally so. More PUP/Hansen than ALP, but cheered on by the hate squad.
AA
[Morrison is implementing their offshore processing program..]
Well, actually, he isn’t. I linked to an interview the other day which made that point – there were far more safeguards around Labor’s proposal, and far less secrecy.
It is perfectly possible to hold asylum seekers in detention for an indeterminate time and treat them decently whilst you do so.
Labor’s program also involved an increased refugee intake, which I don’t think is happening now.
The $96 billion “Labor debt” inherited by the Howard Government in 1996 comprised $39.9 billion of Fraser Government debt that carried through the Hawke/Keating period meaning that the true level of Labor debt in 1996 was $56 billion.
To pay that $56 billion off, the Howard Government sold almost $72 billion of Government assets meaning the move to negative net debt was not really due to any miraculous and bold fiscal settings, but owed everything to a series of asset sales.
Player One
I agree about the timing. It is News raising it after all an LNP ally as we know.
As such it was not that WWP relayed the report that was the problem. Its the pavlovian response by some to the issue that is the problem.
By all means discuss what happened but more opinion on agreed facts rather than opinion based on what people think happened would be a great help.
A bit tighter standard than normal because it has got so emotional.
That starts with giving more weight to the horses mouth rather than second hand reports about what may have been said by some anonymous source for a reporter
zoomster, you are around. I noted your comment the other day when you had family come to visit from Lithuania.
My family come from a little place called Sakiai just outside Kaunas
How much did they spend connecting 1 customer to FTTN?
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 57m
First NBN fibre to the node customer connected. http://www.zdnet.com/au/first-nbn-fibre-to-the-node-customer-connected-7000032861/ …
First FTTN customer in 12 months.
Zoomster
I am a member of the ALP and the first serious issue of a Gillard challenge was raised with me two days before. I could not believe it. It seemed so out of whack with.
It was not as if there had been months of bad polling. You see Zoomster I actually care about the ALP and progressive politics rather than factional warlords. If Rudd had continued to trail the liberals for three months in the polls then I would have been more accepting of a change. Probably so would Rudd, and indeed if the polls fell to 48/52 for 6 months I would agree a change was needed. BUT not in a vicious way-
Rudd voluntarily stepping aside to devote time to Foreign affairs would have been a face saving and sensible approach. But sadly the US embassy, Arbib’s masters would not have wanted this change.
Rudd v Gillard is the trilling wire in the blood of PB.
[ “The trilling wire in the blood / sings below inveterate scars / appeasing long-forgotten wars.”]
‘Getting rid of Kevin was a mistake’ is just avoiding the point that he should never have been made Leader to start with.
Lots of bad decisions made.
Refugee Council of Australia comparison of 2013 federal election AS policies of ALP, Coalition and the Grens:
http://www.refugeecouncil.org.au/r/rpt/2013election.pdf
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/recent-victorian-and-queensland-polling.html
Recent Victorian and Queensland state polling roundup
zoomster@774
Hahahaha.. I was wondering how you would respond.
There is a difference between knowing such things happen and thinking they are just the way things are and tacitly endorsing them.
I know such things happen, I don’t like them, I don’t approve of them and whenever possible will denounce and oppose them.
Zoomster:
[It is perfectly possible to hold asylum seekers in detention for an indeterminate time and treat them decently whilst you do so.]
In theory, perhaps, but in practice no. The purpose of indefinite detention is
a) a deterrent to putative IMAs. (So it has to be demoralising, deblitating and come to be seen as a fate worse than the thing people are in flight from and worse than death at sea). Inflicting misery on children is an important tool, because to harm people’s children is normally effective in getting them to take flight
b) It has to be seen as seriously punitive by those who hate asylum seekers and score the regime well on “being tough”. In this sense, protests by those of us guided by humanity help the regime lift its credibility with the “let’s sink them at sea” crowd.
c) It has to isolate them from contact with the community. Allowing them to be seen as human beings with life stories would make them seem like less of a threat than seeing them as an existential threat to Australia — hence the offshore detention regime
So as a matter of political practice, the regime can’t treat them decently. Brutality is the key performance indicator of offshore detention and in their view, the best predictor of the political success of the program.
[ I’d like some of the drugs you are taking – here is much better than the real world and your drugs clearly make it even better. ]
I would gladly offer to share – but it seems to me you are dangerously close to an overdose already.
[If you must start such stories (and your timing is indeed suspicious), then at least have a better grounding than an “ABC says Murdoch said” story heard in bed.
]
Lol I take it you are one of the residents of clown land are you Frank returning to us – you have his logic! Until Mr Smith who’ve I’ve met a few times and have nothing but admiration for corrects the record I’m going to continue to feel smug. not only smug but delighted that Swan and Smith knew that getting rid of Rudd was an incredibly stupid idea – given they didn’t like Rudd even a bit. There was more wisdom in cabinet than it looked like.
zoomster,
Despite Socrates posting damning comments about you and your posts on E-W link, as well accusing you of lying, good to see you do not accuse him of not being able to read and wtte how you showed him up, as you think you did me 😉
By the way, when you accused me, in your usual condescending way of “galloping off into the sunset”, I had a funeral of a much respected and loved local environmentalist and friend to prepare for and attend.
But I expect nothing less than your usual snarkiness when you are presented with credible opinions and evidence from experts who contradict what you are trying to spin and know more than you on a given issue or subject.
Dio
It is always worth in hindsight looking at winners and losers from each event and considering (I mean considering not assuming) if there were darker behind the scene puppet masters or if simply a stuff up. Now rule of thumb says always choose stuff up over conspiracy, but alternatives must always at least be examined.
The winners form the Rudd/gillard debacle – indirectly in most cases
1. Abbott and the LNP although win was surprisingly delayed
2. Miners who got rid of a tax
3. The US who got a base in Darwin
4. India who got uranium
5. The Greens who got a short term power role and a carbon tax, albeit briefly
6. Shorten, Feeney
7. unions who had a sympathetic PM
Losers
1. Rudd
2. Gillard
3. Tax payers who lost mining tax revenue
4. The ALP as a whole but hopefully short term
I will now stroll out into the sunshine to enjoy a glorious day, though first I have a dental appointment to go to.
Enjoy your day, PB folks 🙂
[Rudd v Gillard is the trilling wire in the blood of PB]
If only it was a bit more thrilling!
[ Rudd voluntarily stepping aside to devote time to Foreign affairs would have been a face saving and sensible approach. But sadly the US embassy, Arbib’s masters would not have wanted this change. ]
And you think Rudd would ever have agreed to this?
Now who’s delusional!
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 6m
The speeds on the FttN NBN trial are an average over a period of a week, not the top speed, as previously thought. http://www.zdnet.com/au/first-nbn-fibre-to-the-node-customer-connected-7000032861/ …
“McInnes is the customer closest to the node of the four currently trialling, but Communications Minister Malcolm Turnbull provided a number of speed test results from a number of locations, with a customer located 515 metres from the node able to get 97Mbps down, and 30Mbps up.”
Closest to the Node means that evidence is selective to start with.
[Rudd’s inability to react appropriately simply proved he wasn’t really part of the party. (Interestingly, many people immediately post coup saw that as the problem). Given that the party made him PM to begin with, that shows a certain lack of respect.]
Except your own paragraphs and logic and political wisdom is saying Rudd acted exactly as you’d expect him to and consistent with political behaviour. I’m not seeing the exceptionalism in Rudd doing to Gillard exactly what he done to Beazley and exactly what Howes did to him.
CTari
This is a serious quetion – not trying to start old wars
Who do you think should have been made leader in 2006? What realistic choice was there?
Remember that Gillard was of the left and in 2006 did not have a chance, Shorten and Combet were still newcomers.
Smith and Swan maybe but I doubt either could have bested Howard.
The internal processes of the ALP are chaotic and dysfunctional. A federal Cabinet with deep misgivings about the Prime Minister’s management style lacked the courage and skill to intercede with the Prime Minister in a constructive way. They lacked the nous to work in the party’s interests. Instead of presenting the Prime Minister with the gravity of their concerns and offering to work with him to make the government’s processes work better, they let the problems fester. They let union secretaries orchestrate a sudden coup for their own base ends. They saw what a political diaster the coup would be but did nothing to stop it.
The party doesn’t choose its Senate candidates and its state upper house candidates by democratic means. Instead of vesting those decisions exclusively with the party’s members, they allow the decisions to be stitched up by union secretaries with their own tribal and personal agendas. The party lets this travesty of a process continue despite its direct causal link to the corruption of New South Wales politics.
How can such a party be entrusted with the powers of government?
I think it’s time for the Greens to supplant Labor as the main centre-left party in Australia. The Greens have democratic processes. They cultivate the skills of deliberation, dialogue, and participation. They involve their members in the party’s most important decisions – ALL of them, including Senate and state upper house pre-selections – in a powerful, substantive fashion. We Australians want a society in which power is broadly dispersed and decisions are reached by deliberative, evidence driven means. The Greens model such an approach in their party practices. They are therefore more suited to government than the ALP, the Liberals, or the Nationals.
PlayerOne
Well actually according to Kelly and others Rudd did agree to voluntarily go in three months if the polling was still bad.
Whether he went to FA is unclear, but it is a fairly tried and true approach aka Hayden that sort of works.
AA
My father grew up in Vilkaviskas (think that’s right) near Vilnius.
He never talked much about his life in Lithuania. He left home to fight when he was seventeen and was never able to go back. His parents thought he was dead for almost a decade.
I did get to meet my aunts – they came out when he was dying – but the language barrier meant I wasn’t any the wiser about Lithuanian life when they left!