BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

Another placid week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, suggesting a new equilibrium has been struck between the government’s budget disaster and MH17 recovery.

The only national poll this week was the regular weekly Essential Research, which is joined in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate by Galaxy’s result from Queensland. That adds up to no change whatsoever on two-party preferred, but the Greens are up on the primary vote at Labor’s expense. There’s some shifting of the deckchairs on the seat projection, with Labor down one in New South Wales and Victoria and up one in Queensland and Western Australia, but it cancels out on the total score. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings, which serves as a sad reminder that in the past we would have expected Nielsen to come due this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

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  1. [His advice if you really think you’re in a bad way is to suggest upper left arm pain and chest pain as that will move you up to queue.]

    That would only partly work. If you said that you would be seen straightaway and have an ECG etc we’d ignore the complaint you wanted us to look at.

  2. How big a dud is/was the Killer Pink Batts inquiry ? So bad Chris Kenny just called it “unnecessary” . If he can’t squeeze anti Labor spin from it then there ain’t nuthin’ there.

  3. I did stray onto the Kangaroo Court right wing nut job web site to see the actual allegations against Shorten, and they look dodgy as. Similar style to the Gillard ones, with (name deleted) allegations finishing with the salacious punchline, “sexually assaulted me” and “raped me” being the last words in the 2 posts lifted off Rudd’s Facebook page.

    They were longish posts, about the length of the paragraph above, and neither proceeded to say something like “I took it to the police who….” Or ” I complained to ALP head office who….”. Just left it hanging at the salacious bit.

    I’m calling bullshit, and Liberal Party Dirt Unit.

  4. Sprocket

    The allegations were first raised soon after Shorten became LOTO. Police thereafter commenced investigations, which have now concluded with no case to answer.

  5. From the Good Grief !! and Only in America file. FMD

    [Summerville Police arrest student for writing he shot dead dinosaur

    YOU don’t need to be a Rhodes Scholar to know that dinosaurs became extinct about 66 million years ago.

    Yet a high school student’s statement that he shot dead his neighbour’s pet dinosaur saw police officers called to the school.

    Alex Stone, a 16-year-old student at Summerville High School in the town of Summerville in South Carolina, said that his class was asked to write a few sentences about themselves and to list a “status” as if they were filling in their Facebook page, WCSC-TV reported.

    The teen wrote “I killed my neighbour’s pet dinosaur.” In the status section, he said he wrote: “I bought the gun to take care of the business.”

    That prompted the school to call in Summerville Police Department. Stone was arrested and later charged with disorderly conduct after he argued with officers, who searched fruitlessly for a gun in his school bag and locker.]
    http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/lifestyle/parenting/summerville-police-arrest-student-for-writing-he-shot-dead-dinosaur/story-fnjgw0zj-1227032120282

  6. The allegations were first raised soon after Shorten became LOTO. Police thereafter commenced investigations, which have now concluded with no case to answer

    If we had an ethical professional media, and an honest ethical government this would be the end of it

  7. But is it a coincidence that the allegations seem to have surfaced just after Shorten was elected Labor leader?

    According to the screenshot of the Facebook page posted on Twitter, the allegation was posted about two comments after one that demanded “Get Shorten”.

  8. Guns allowed in schools, with the whole anti-terrorism tag to it:
    http://rt.com/usa/181720-officers-school-rifles-compton/

    “The school board approved a policy in July that will allow certain school district officers to buy these rifles and hold them in their cars should a mass shooting or terror attack occur, according to KPCC. The school district will train the chosen officers, who will then carry the firearms in their cars starting next month.”

    “The policy has residents of Compton, located in southern Los Angeles County, concerned over potential use of excessive force in a school district that has, in the past, seen allegations from students of racial profiling by Compton school police officers.”

  9. The kangaroo court bloke already has a contempt of court finding against him for failing to take down material he was ordered to remove by the Supreme Court in NSW re Kerry Stojes

  10. The future of the ABC is here now. This puff piece is supposed to be “in depth journalism” by our National Broadcaster? It wouldn’t look out of place in any of Murdoch’s rags, or broadcast on 2GB:

    [ http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-21/clive-palmers-constituents-criticise-mp-for-comments/5687918 ]

    Makes you want to weep! Please Tony, just sell the bloody thing so we don’t have to watch the slow decline of a once worthy organization!

  11. zoidlord @ 265

    [SNP is accused of exaggerating oil reserves upto 60%:
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/aug/20/snp-accused-exaggerating-north-sea-oil-reserves

    “Revealing himself as an opponent of Scottish independence, Wood said North Sea oil reserves would begin to decline sharply within 15 years, raising questions about the future of the Scottish economy, jobs and its balance of payments if voters backed independence.”]

    The Guardian present its normal uncritical report of the No Thanks – U-KOK nonsense. On the Referrendum issue it just follows the UK media pack.

    For context one may see here:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-lost-treasure-of-the-deep/

    [So we’re a little mystified about how Sir Ian has suddenly managed to not only arrive at such a gloomy assessment, but also misplace a whopping 8 billion barrels of oil between his own report in February (which he’s disingenuously trying to pretend was actually the Scottish Government’s) and now – coincidentally at the exact same time he’s decided that he needs to come out in favour of a No vote.]

  12. [Online news site Crikey has responded to legal threats by agreeing to destroy leaked accounts indicating a steep decline in News Corporation’s Australian newspaper business.

    Crikey published what the Rupert Murdoch company calls internally “the blue book”, the company’s operating accounts for all its businesses.]

    Typical.

    Must have hit a raw nerve. If New York investors knew they were propping up a vanity project like the Australian, Murdoch would be in big trouble.

  13. [ Must have hit a raw nerve. If New York investors knew they were propping up a vanity project like the Australian, Murdoch would be in big trouble. ]

    Probably not. His investors would know exactly what value Murdoch gets out of The Australian …. and that it doesn’t derive from newspaper sales.

  14. CTar @ 288

    [UK Politics. Scottish Independence. About the most sensible thing I’ve seen written on this for months:]

    Really? Maybe you should read a bit more widely.

    [Being English and resident in England, I have been scrupulously neutral in this campaign and will not venture an opinion one way or another.

    All I will say is that the real argument for voting “Yes” is the desire for Scotland to become an independent sovereign nation, and the willingness to take the bad with the good.]

    Why is that the “real arguement”? What about the desire to chart a different course than the brutal inequality offered by the UK

    [If Scottish voters are for the Union, or are unsure whether they are prepared for the risks of independence come what may, then they should vote “No”.]

    [In England, we need to address the question of devolution highlighted by the Scottish debate. There is a feeling here in the north east that our neighbours to the north get a rather better deal from the public purse than we do.]

    On average, UK spending is around £1,200 higher per person in Scotland than in the UK as a whole. But on average Scotland sends £1,700 more per person to the UK in taxes [13].

    The London Financial Times, in February 2014 wrote: “Although Scotland enjoys public spending well above the UK average – a source of resentment among some in England, Wales and Northern Ireland – the cost to the Treasury is more than outweighed by oil and gas revenues from Scottish waters.”

    [I wish our Scottish neighbours well, whatever the outcome. But if the decision is that they want to take all their own decisions, they must be prepared for the English to take all theirs. And English decisions in such a circumstance may not be to the liking of Scotland. That is the real meaning of independence – it cuts both ways.]

    Haha, so two independent countries will make their own decisions! This is profound in what way? What does it mean at all, at all? What about the decisions of independent Denmark or Ireland?

    CTar .. For wider reading, here is a link to the Wee Blue Book – Facts about Independence (from a Yes perspective, of course) 🙂

    http://worldofstuart.excellentcontent.com/WeeBlueBookDesktopEdition.pdf

  15. Player One@449

    However unjust it may be, it’s just a reality that this will lose him and the ALP votes they can’t afford to lose.


    Then at least you and bemused will be able to console each other and sadly say “I told you so”.

    You really are a grub aren’t you?

  16. ruawake@455

    PS: Anyone can post on anyone’s Facebook page..


    It was posted, then quickly deleted, on Rudd’s FB page. Rudd had a gazillion friends who could post on his wall. The interesting thing is that the Kangaroo Court slime managed a screen shot, followed by Pickering.

    Coincidence? Luck?

    So those here trying to blame it on their usual scapegoat, Rudd, are wrong as usual.

  17. Just in – the number of new Americans signing on for unemployment benefit fell by 14,000 last week, to 298,000. Economists had expected a 12,000 drop.

  18. Actually the evidence in the past is probably more positive than not about people accused of crimes after it is resolved no basis for prosecution. What we don’t know now is how the media and others will react if the complainant continues to make allegations.

  19. Asia Times reports disasterous results for Euro economies of sanctions on Russia_______________

    A UK writer looks at the way many Euro national economies are suffering from sanctions in which russian retaliation is seeing fruit and vegies and dairy poroducts being banned from Russian markets
    Greece,.Holland,Poland and the Baltic states are all suffering ,with products designed for the Russian market being left unsold
    Already the EU must come up with $125 million Euros to cover farmers losses,and all this at Washington’s behest ,though they lose few markets for such US products in Russia and are untroubled by the sanctions…increasing the Euro dismay at the effects of sanctions

  20. [So those here trying to blame it on their usual scapegoat, Rudd, are wrong as usual.]

    I don’t think anyone said that. In fact I thought it was curious that the woman would choose an ally of Rudd (at least for that one vital party room election).

    Rudd was just a dupe in all this. He can’t control what people post on his Facebook page.

    What IS curious is, as pointed out above, how quickly the Kangaroos, Pickering and especially our old friends, the Victoria Police grabbed onto it.

  21. It WOULD be nice, wouldn’t it to just publish an allegation against, say, Abbott and then have the police conduct a 10 month inquiry into it, interviewing 40 witnesses (according to Bongiorno) and then coming w=out with a mealy-mouthed “can’t prove it (vut he probably did it)” conclusion.

    2GB certainly picked on the technical aspect of the police press release, so much so that in my opinion someone at Vic Police was being mischevious. They should have known what the reaction would be in certain circles.

  22. 578

    Victoria Police are required to investigate all allegations of serious crimes in Victoria. They have investigated (for several months) and it has been decided that there is insufficient evidence to prosecute. I do not believe that the reasons that a prosecution has been decided against have been released. The details of the case are not public (with some justification) and so we do not know. The case also had/has to be assessed in relation to the law in 1986, before the law on consent in Victoria were tightened in 1991. We shall just have to wait and see.

  23. BB – what the Vic police said is just standard wording. Doesn’t imply anything other than not enough evidence for a prosecution.

    Police say this all the time. Every now and again when they say this more evidence turns up and they do a prosecution. They can’t use different standards. And they can’t run the risk of being made to look dorks in the exceptional case where things change.

    Nothing much the police can do about the “where theres smoke theres fire” lot. Have to trust the public to be reasonable. There is always civil proceedings available to either party and the police don’t want to get dragged into that.

  24. Bemused

    That’s good to hear that the Shorten rape allegations on Ruddy’s facebook page were quickly deleted.

    You wouldn’t read it first from the Gillardista’s that’s for sure 😛

  25. Nobody here will confuse me with a gan of either the ALP or Bill Shorten, but as far as I can tell, this sexual assault charge matter ought never to be raised again, unless and until some clear evidentiary basis for it appears. Until that time, honest people will deal with Shorten exactly as if this matter had never been aired in public.

    Anyone can accuse a person of criminal conduct. If a robust investigation fails to elicit persuasive evidence of a crime, then the accusation is no more impressive than a slander.

  26. Bushfire Bill@578

    So those here trying to blame it on their usual scapegoat, Rudd, are wrong as usual.


    I don’t think anyone said that. In fact I thought it was curious that the woman would choose an ally of Rudd (at least for that one vital party room election).

    Rudd was just a dupe in all this. He can’t control what people post on his Facebook page.

    What IS curious is, as pointed out above, how quickly the Kangaroos, Pickering and especially our old friends, the Victoria Police grabbed onto it.

    There was plenty of it earlier today, but apart from that I agree with what you say. Kangaroos and Pickering must have been poised and waiting for the allegation to be posted.

  27. The Collapse of the Right…as evidenced by their unsustainable anti-science biases
    ____________________________________
    Prof John Quiqqin (Brisbane) looks at the way in the US and now in Oz,that the right has adopted crazy anti-science policies re evolution/climate change and aven ..by Abetz..crazy medical theories on abortion-breast cancer..all from par right sources….

    Quiqqin sees this as an example of the intellectual collapse of the Right…which will lose them most educated young voters…as has happened in the UA
    e.g Only 6% of US scientists say they would vote for the Repubs,and this is also seen among most young voters
    Quiqqan believes that the same trend is happening here …with 70% of the youngest voters either going for Labor or Greens…as right orgs like the IPA embark on more and more far out programs
    an interesting piece….

    http://inside.org.au/climate-change-and-the-intellectual-decline-of-the-right/

  28. LOL.

    Mathias Cormann ‏@MathiasCormann 2m

    Unbelievable. In tomorrow’s Australian, Labor’s Tony Burke complains that we’re not reducing Labor’s debt interest bill fast enough. Really?

    Talk about hypocrites.

    Now Cormann trying to be positive, and blame Labor anyway, while he’s at it.

    Your in goverment dude.

  29. Morning all. First may I congratulate the SA Opera on last night’s performance of Einstein on the Beach by Phillip Glass. At four hours long it is not for the feint hearted, but music and dancing were beautiful. Great to see Adelaide putting on something of this quality.

  30. Neil Mitchell on radio 2UE saying he “doesn’t know” whether the woman raising the allegation against SHorten is credible, doesn’t know if it actually happened, but he is going to keep talking about it. There could be civil action and he doesn’t know if it will go further. He answered “don’t know” to nearly every question he was asked. All he wanted to do was take the credit for putting the woman in touch with the police.
    What a wanker.

  31. I won’t comment on the Shorten rape allegations because of all the same reasons I have been reluctant to comment on past incidents of other politicians. It is a very serious allegation but unproven, prior to politics, and details of complainant are unknown.

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