BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

Another placid week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, suggesting a new equilibrium has been struck between the government’s budget disaster and MH17 recovery.

The only national poll this week was the regular weekly Essential Research, which is joined in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate by Galaxy’s result from Queensland. That adds up to no change whatsoever on two-party preferred, but the Greens are up on the primary vote at Labor’s expense. There’s some shifting of the deckchairs on the seat projection, with Labor down one in New South Wales and Victoria and up one in Queensland and Western Australia, but it cancels out on the total score. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings, which serves as a sad reminder that in the past we would have expected Nielsen to come due this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

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  1. Well I see I have higher standards than Neil Mitchell, though that is setting the bar uncomfortably low. I wonder if Neil will comment on other allegations like Newscorp in Australia is in financial trouble?

  2. Feeling pretty smug this morning as I wakeup to news that the whole cabinet agreed with me that the switch from Rudd to Gillard was a mistake, and one that wouldn’t have been made without the clowns outside caucus exercising their excessive power.

    Also explains why the case against Rudd was a series of weak and transparent lies – noone actually believed in the case so no big surprise they couldn’t make it publicly and successfully.

    I’m sure many of the nasty things we have learned about Rudd are all true, and frankly I would be surprised if we had many PM’s without quite a large closet of ego and nasty.

    I’ve always maintained as well that Rudd’s lack of delight at being removed and subsequent behaviour was entirely predictable and entirely the responsibility of the clowns that removed him for no good reason.

    Thanks to Mr Stephen Smith who was quoted in the news this morning.

  3. Soc

    I’m not an Opera sort of person but the Arts are something worth supporting.

    That a well done performance thrills you, and other punters, makes the small amount spent inconsequential.

  4. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    BREAKING NEWS: “Pell shows sociopathic lack of empathy”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pell-compares-priests-to-truckers-as-victims-given-apologies-20140821-3e3mk.html
    And, to derisive groans from the floor at the hearing, Pell annonces that the Vatican will refuse to provide files on accused peadophile priests. Pell’s weasel words were plentiful.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/vatican-refuses-to-hand-over-files-on-accused-pedophile-priests-20140821-106zg5.html
    Pell told the RC that he took claims “with a grain of salt”.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/21/george-pell-tells-inquiry-he-took-claims-from-victims-groups-with-a-grain-of-salt
    Martin Parkinson on the future of personal taxation and the selling of the budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/budget-could-have-been-sold-better-treasury-secretary-martin-parkinson-20140821-106qe5.html
    Mr and Mrs Cornwell go down in flames at ICAC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/andrew-cornwell-and-wife-accused-of-giving-misleading-evidence-over-rex-newell-painting-20140821-106i22.html
    Baird to stop the gravy train?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/premier-mike-baird-to-force-liberals-to-sign-doordie-contracts-on-donations-laws-before-poll-20140821-106qz6.html
    Looks like crunch time for Clive Palmer and Co is nigh.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/21/looks-crunch-time-coming-clive-and-company
    Lenore Taylor on Bill Shorten’s stement yesterday.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/21/why-bill-shorten-public-allegation-answer-closure
    Palmer modifies the conditions for the resumption of an ETS.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/clive-palmer-tones-down-conditions-for-emissions-trading-scheme-20140821-106u3o.html

  5. WWP

    Indeed you are not alone. Just because the power obsessed leaders of the factions who made the Rudd decision are old and not very bright, they can still be selfish and arrogant.

    They were desperate to destroy Rudd to avoid attention falling on themselves. I hope they enjoy the union RC, which would never have happened if not for their own ego and stupidity.

  6. Section 2 . . .

    Abbott rejects the GPs proposal for exempting pensioners from the copayment.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gp-copayment-tony-abbott-rejects-ama-proposal-to-exempt-pensioners-20140821-106w3t.html
    This country does NOT need to be like the US with its chronically bad health “system”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/private-funds-follow-medibank-into-gps-clinics-20140821-106shj.html
    Laura Tingle says that the governement is to blame for the health policy mess.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/government_to_blame_for_health_policy_7h6rq1AqWQwBuDkNjpv8CL
    And it’s off to the High Court for Abbott and Morrison.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/un-agency-in-high-court-challenge-to-abbott-governments-treatment-of-asylum-seekers-20140821-106li9.html
    And some advice to Morrison on the locking up of children.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/scott-morrisons-only-option-is-to-release-all-children-in-detention-20140821-106ljy.html
    Tamania all set to tear up forresty agreement.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/22/tasmania-prepares-to-tear-up-forestry-peace-deal
    Waleed Aly with a very good insight into the motives of ISIS.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/james-foley-beheading-baits-america-to-intervene-20140821-106jbo.html
    The big end of town is running scared and move to beef up the qualifications of financial planners.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/amp-and-big-banks-rush-to-lift-planners-qualifications-20140821-106udz.html
    News Copr’s Ken Williams to accuse others of engaging in a festival of vengeance”. What a scream!!
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/kim-williams-calls-news-corp-leaks-a-festival-of-vengeance-20140821-106r64.html
    Idiot Fred Nile brings the abortion/breast cancer fallacy to NSW parliament.
    http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/fred-nile-draws-link-between-abortion-and-breast-cancer-20140821-106ori.html

  7. WWP

    [Feeling pretty smug this morning as I wakeup to news that the whole cabinet agreed with me that the switch from Rudd to Gillard was a mistake..]

    You must have been still dreaming, then. No one has provided any evidence that ‘the whole cabinet’ thought the switch was a mistake, with significant players still standing by the decision.

  8. Section 3 . . .

    Michael Leunig – should heads be cut off or blown off?

    Alan Moir with a ripper on the Titanic.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    ABSOLUTELY MUST SEE! Abbott’s ice bucket challenge. David pope at his best.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html
    Ron Tandberg with top sportsman Scott Morrison.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    Who is the subject of this David Rowe cartoon?
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  9. [Feeling pretty smug this morning as I wakeup to news that the whole cabinet agreed with me that the switch from Rudd to Gillard was a mistake]

    Dunno why you’d be feeling smug as just about everyone has said exactly the same thing. My own view is that they should’ve let Rudd win the 2010 election and then shanked his leadership.

  13. [You must have been still dreaming, then. No one has provided any evidence that ‘the whole cabinet’ thought the switch was a mistake, with significant players still standing by the decision.]

    Of course they have to stand by the decision! But that isn’t proof it was the right decision. In fact one never needs to stand by a correct decision because there is a crowd of people trying to crowd you out to take credit.

    And Stephen is a very reliable person and a Gillard supporter to the hilt – you don’t get a better source than that.

    But I know the ‘we hate Rudd’ cult does not allow facts or reality to interfere with the set of beliefs they have stacked up around them.

  14. Zoom

    I see you are still sticking to the lie that Labor cannot tear up the EW Link contract. Shame on you. I have personally seen such contracts torn up by a Labor govt that I worked in. You would rather see Victorian taxpayers (yes, they are workers too) forced to give Macquarie bank and their kin at least $500 million per year for thirty years than admit Labor got it wrong. Enough money to pay for schools, hospitals, trains, and many workers jobs for thirty years. That sort of thinking is why Labor is in opposition.

  18. Meanwhile at the child abuse inquiry catholic church lawyer Richard Leder apologised over incorrect statements made about the Foster family, whose daughters were abused.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pell-compares-priests-to-truckers-as-victims-given-apologies-20140821-3e3mk.html

    Leder is an excellent lawyer, his own website says so. He must be proud of his work for the church.
    http://www.corrs.com.au/people/richard-leder/

  19. ACT court of Appeal delivers judgment in David Eastman’s application for the quashing of his conviction over the murder of Colin Winchester today.

    Must be reasonable chance this one will be off to the High Court like twice before.

  20. CTar

    Thanks and yes I agree with your comments on arts funding. In SA the money spent is not a lot, and it employs many people. There were a lot of people in the audience last night who had travelled from interstate to watch. It isn’t about economics, but it is not a bad investment either.

    Have a good day all.

  21. The Rowe thumbnail doesn’t match the ‘toon that comes up. The cartoon I get is the AMA suggesting to the “Suppository of Wisdom” and company where they can put the $7 co-payment.

  24. The mistake with Rudd was probably 2006 more than 2010.

    People should have known better of his qualities and propensity for treachery if ever removed. Far too dangerous to install someone who could/would never go quietly — it is not a monarchy.

    No other deposed leader in Australian political history sought to leak against and undermine their own party for years on end afterwards, so I guess that part would have been difficult to predict.

  25. shellbell

    [Was when that photo was taken but is now 38 kilos (and still a puppy).]

    Lucky you’re a Lawyer – you can afford the dog supplies.
    😉

  26. Yaaaay Palmer . With the agreements coming up in 2015 and Korea kicking off their scheme at the start of 2015 an ETS should be a shoo in. Tony International Shag on a Rock here we come.From BK’s links.

    [Mr Palmer has dropped India from a list of countries that would have to take broad action on climate change before an Australian scheme would kick in.

    He has also relaxed the conditions that must be met by the US, China, the European Union, Japan and South Korea for a scheme to be launched.]

  27. [ACT court of Appeal delivers judgment in David Eastman’s application for the quashing of his conviction over the murder of Colin Winchester today.
    Must be reasonable chance this one will be off to the High Court like twice before.]

    Will make a change for them from their Migration Act hearings!

  29. confessions @628

    That is what I see in the thumbnail but clicking on it or following BK’s link comes up with the AMA cartoon.

  30. The latest from Field Marshall Abbott :

    “Operation Budget Repair” …

    This grub is a sabre rattling warmongering bigoted POS …

    And he sprouts there is No *I* in Team Australia

    – but there is an “I” in independence, individuality and integrity, qualities sadly lacking in TA

  34. Perhaps which Rowe you got depends on browsers. I use IE and get the AMA cartoon with the original BK link. The old cartoon only appeared in the thumbnail strip and could not be linked to/enlarged.

  35. Soc

    Contracts cannot be ripped up, wily nily. It either has to be proved that they can’t be delivered (as Conroy was able to do with Howard’s broadband contracts) or there has to be a payout.

    In many cases, the fear of a new government not honouring a contract means that clauses are written into it which makes it impractical to tear it up.

    As I have continually said (see previous posts) I have no trouble with Labor overturning the EW contract, but they cannot commit to doing so full stop until they have not only seen the relevant documents but have had them trawled over by a team of lawyers.

    The world is not about “I want this to happen, so it should be done” – it’s about what is possible to do.

    Political parties of any stamp who promise to do something they know they can’t should be condemned. The opposite side of that coin is that we shouldn’t decide that a party that won’t make such promises is therefore either corrupt or wimpy.

  39. …for example, the contract might have a clause requiring the Victorian government to pay $500 million a year to Macquarie bank in perpetuity should the contract be dishonoured. (Extreme, I know – but he did sign over millions of hectares of Crown Land to private interests ‘in perpetuity’ and those contracts are apparently water tight).

    In that circumstance, ripping up the contract would obviously be foolish.

  41. Jon Faine ABC radio is talking about the Crown casino extended licence with Tim Costello.

    He will soon be talking about Shorten’s statement made yesterday

  42. Sorry Lizzie I just heard it on local ABC radio in Perth. Might have been in what the papers say in which case the linked article would be the source.

  44. I have never known of any situation where things didn’t turn out as expected where those involved didn’t say later that they warned everyone at the time it was a bad idea, that they had nothing to do with it, etc etc.

    The old saying is that success has many fathers, but failure is a bastard.

    If – in an alternative universe – Rudd had taken his defeat on the chin and retired gracefully from politics, we would have seen what happened in Victoria, with the transition from Ballieu to Napthine causing nary a ripple.

    And, if that had happened, I’d bet almost every one of those MPs quoted would now be talking up their role in making it happen (just as Howes did originally).

  45. WWP

    Thanks. I’m not even game to give my own opinion of any of this stuff, because it leads to more accusations of “cults”, on both sides.

  46. I may have overstated the case too possibly there were some in cabinet who didn’t speak to Stephen who were as stupid as the powerbrokers who made the decisions.

  48. vic

    [Spring is in the air. 20 degrees for Melbourne today.]

    King parrots, screaming Magpie chicks and sorta ‘Snowdrops’ flowering in Canberra say it’s on.

    Next thing is to beat my B-I-L to the first ripe Tomato.

  49. Funny how Kim Carr – who began the push to remove Rudd, and then began the push to remove Gillard – comes out of all this as some kind of hero.

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