BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor

Another placid week for the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, suggesting a new equilibrium has been struck between the government’s budget disaster and MH17 recovery.

The only national poll this week was the regular weekly Essential Research, which is joined in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate by Galaxy’s result from Queensland. That adds up to no change whatsoever on two-party preferred, but the Greens are up on the primary vote at Labor’s expense. There’s some shifting of the deckchairs on the seat projection, with Labor down one in New South Wales and Victoria and up one in Queensland and Western Australia, but it cancels out on the total score. Nothing new this week for leadership ratings, which serves as a sad reminder that in the past we would have expected Nielsen to come due this week.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,032 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.6-48.4 to Labor”

Comments Page 14 of 21
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  5. Growing Amish Paste, Principe Borghese and San Marzano this year. Might throw in some Rouge de Marmande if I can buy some decent seedlings (the others I rear from seed).

  13. As a born and bred Tike, I am quite at ease in saying that the institutionalised Catholic church is corrupt to the bootstraps.

    The promotion of Pell to 2IC in Rome and his evidence yesterday a he “shifted and shaked” his evidence around (and lied) proves it.

    Now Pell is the No1 Money Man at the Vatican … he understands money!!!!! ( obviously a major focus in his priestly life). The new Pope who promoted Pell is either of his ilk, or just dumb.

    Yesterday he said that the 1996 $50K payout cap of the Melbourne “solution” was great because it was the equivalent to $120K in today’s dollars.

    But when Counsel pointed out that if that was the case, then today’s cap of $75K (in “today” dollars) is therefore of less value than the 1996 figure, he disputed this.

    Hopefully the final RC report will explicitly spell out this guy’s patent dishonesty.

  14. http://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-shorten-bombshell-puts-labor-in-uncharted-terrority-30787

    [A central factor in how things move from here will be the woman’s reaction. Worrying from Shorten’s point of view are comments she made after learning the matter was advancing no further. The Australian quoted her on Thursday (before Shorten spoke) saying she was “really, really angry. This has been going on for 28 years. I think anybody who hears my story will know I am telling the truth”.

    It’s hard to think some in the media won’t pursue the woman who, if she’s determined to try to damage Shorten politically, might make an appearance.

    If she did offer more public statements, it would be a testing time for Shorten. But the woman – who waited a very long period to make her claims public – would also be exposed to closer scrutiny.]

    If I could make a comment without prejudice? Memory built up over 28 years can be very faulty, especially if “retrieved” by a psychologist, or even by a sympathetic friend.

  21. Victoria ..

    It’s long been my view that Pell doesn’t believe in any of the ‘life after death’ mumbo jumbo propagated by his religion to manipulate the faithful..

    He revels in the temporal power & influence …and displays not a jot of ‘Christianity’..

  23. Good Moring.

    Morrison on 24 at Human Rights commission

    “@SwannyQLD: Badge of honour. @australian behaving exactly like I describe in #TheGoodFight. @rupertmurdoch at his worst”

  25. [
    Would someone provide me with a link to what Stephen Smith actually said, please?
    ]

    Here is some of it lizzie. It is all from Paul Kelly’s new book.

    [

    THE priority sentiment of the Rudd cabinet in 2010 was for Kevin Rudd to stay as prime minister and for the Labor Party to avoid any challenge from Julia Gillard — with the leadership transition made possible only because a weak cabinet was hijacked by faction bosses and caucus panic.

    In an exclusive interview describing cabinet sentiment, former foreign minister Stephen Smith, a strong backer of Julia Gillard as prime minister, said: “Wayne (Swan) and I agreed a leadership change would be a mistake. This was the view of everybody in cabinet that I spoke with.”

    Greg Combet, another Gillard loyalist, said: “I hadn’t before the event thought Rudd should be removed.”

    Mr Combet called the event a “tragedy” for the Labor Party. But he made clear that once the showdown — which he felt should be avoided — came, then he would back Gillard against Rudd.

    Labor Senate leader Chris Evans, a Gillard loyalist, reveals he saw Ms Gillard on the morning of the caucus meeting and told her: “I didn’t think this was a good idea. Despite my concerns with Rudd, I felt this was an enormous step. I was deeply worried.”

    ]

    There is even more in the article. Basically everyone Kelly has spoken to thinks the leadership change was a dud idea and most of them say they were against it on the day. But once it became clear it was on they backed Gillard.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/columnists/alp-factions-overrode-weak-kevin-rudd-cabinet-on-leadership-change/story-e6frg74x-1227032580745

  26. Zoomster/Socrates

    The ability of governments to tear up contracts is an interesting issue.

    Of course legally they can – as sovereign governments they could simply resume the land, raise legislatively “special” taxes, block access roads etc. There are lots of ways to force change, avoiding prohibitively expensive “penalty” clauses. I think legally a sovereign state can tear up any contract (but legal eagle not sure here).

    The last resort is to find breaches of licences and fine the hell out of them. In Victoria that would be very, very, very easy because the environment protection act is so powerful that you could easily and legally find $2000/day in breaches, plus a few jail sentences. You could set up police breath and vehicle checking at the road entrance/exit so that motorists would actively avoid it.

    So it is not about legality – it is about the will to change.

    So it all boils down to investment risk – ie the willingness of future partners to invest.

    No I am toying with the idea that any contract with government which is not fully disclosed should be subject to repeal or readjustment. It is not appropriate that a government in 2014 should lock future governments into expensive contracts in the very long term. This is especially the case if there are hidden clauses, not subject to public scrutiny.

    However it is getting the balance right. Investors need certainty, but at the same time the electors do not deserve to be exploited. It is an interesting and important issue. We clearly need rules to apply.

    I think for example that treaties should always be LEGISLATED. Those that are not legislated would have no force of law, or at least might only operate for a limited period.

    Interest payments and penalties payments should also be subject to scrutiny and perhaps time limited.

  28. lizzie

    The Oz are still banging on about JGillard and the AWU. You can bet they will pursue Shorten on this. The reporting by them during this week is indicative of this. The facts dont matter. They have a willing participant, and who knows what financial incentive she is offered to continue throwing mud

  29. “@davrosz: Scott Moralsnone giving a typically belligerent opening address to the Children in Detention Inquiry. Any issues all ALP’s fault, of course.”

  30. It’s all Labor’s fault. 😮

    [Malcolm Farr ‏@farrm51 1m
    Aggressive start in Canberra. Min Morrison won’t answer Qs until he explains really inquiry into “why Labor put children into detention”.]

  32. Differences in Browsers

    Safari us designed for HTLM5

    Not Adobe software. Any usong the Adobe website will have problems with Apple. That includes all the Iphones and Ipads. Big fail by website for not using HTLM5

  33. mad cyril

    So cabinet backed the negotiations by Julia which would have led to a possible later “takeover” and saving face. Yet she was the one who was crucified.

  34. WeWantPaul

    [ Feeling pretty smug this morning as I wakeup to news that the whole cabinet agreed with me that the switch from Rudd to Gillard was a mistake, and one that wouldn’t have been made without the clowns outside caucus exercising their excessive power.

    Also explains why the case against Rudd was a series of weak and transparent lies – noone actually believed in the case so no big surprise they couldn’t make it publicly and successfully.

    I’m sure many of the nasty things we have learned about Rudd are all true, and frankly I would be surprised if we had many PM’s without quite a large closet of ego and nasty. ]

    You are quite deluded. Rudd was dumped first by his colleagues, then by the electorate, when it became apparent to everyone that he was not just vindictive and nasty, but lacked any coherent vision or policy. Even as a simple administrator he was seriously incompetent.

    Want proof? When faced with a choice between a Rudd return and that cretin Abbott, most people still chose Abbott.

    By all means keep up your attempts to rewrite history here in the tiny microcosm of PB – but the rest of the world has already moved on.

  38. What is important about Labor leadership is to avoid it again. Labor has done this. Leadership is now done in such a way that the past mistakes will not be repeated.

    So do not get distracted into another round of whom was to blame by Paul Kelly.

    Its good fodder for nookd and Labor historians. Not so much for a party wanting to win government

  39. As far as I’m concerned the only mistake Labor made with Rudd was bringing him back.

    Proof, he lost the election to a total dud.

  40. I am not familiar with Melbourne or its East West Freeway proposal, but there was what could be an analogous situation in Sydney in the 1990s.

    In the run-up to the NSW State election in 1995, Labor Opposition Leader Bob Carr promised to scrap tolls on Sydney’s M4 and M5 freeways. When he won that election, he found that this was contractually impossible, which would have been eminently predictable. He was accused of ‘lying his way into office’, but rode out the storm.

    Eventually under pressure in seats along the route of the freeways, the Government devised a complex rebate scheme (‘cash back’), paid for by the taxpayer.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/labors-long-and-winding-road-toll-tease-20110205-1ahmw.html

  43. Victoria/Lizzie/everyone

    Many on here jumped for joy when Rolf Harris went to jail or when someone wins a big payout (eg the David Jones case) or wax lyrical about Assange’s “sex crime” but there are negative implications about using personal behaviours to tear down celebrities or politicians.

    They usually come back to bite you on the bum. The last 10 years has seen “sex crimes” used to do the same job that Stalin’s “psychiatric wards” once did. If you cannot fight a person’s political views then find a sex crime/allegation and bring him down that way. It is a worrying trend.

    Now I do not doubt that most of the guys are sexual sleezes but I am not sure that this is a reason for bringing them to court. Mind you what goes around comes around and I feel it likely that somewhere there is a woman who can cry “rape” against Abbott, a known pants man. Probably not Sloppy (not enough energy there) and with some it might be a boy.

  47. dtt

    Vic Pol investigated the claim made and interviewed over 40 witnesses, and have stated there is no case to answer. This investigation has taken place over a period of 10 months. You would expect in reasonable circumstances for the matter to end there. But of course, it wont stop those who wish to damage team Labor

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