BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor

This week’s opinion poll projections have Tony Abbott leading as preferred prime minister for the first time since April, and the Coalition maintaining the slow drift in its favour on voting intention.

The BludgerTrack poll aggregate this week continues its steady drift back to the Coalition, with new figures from Newspoll, Morgan and Essential contributing to a 0.4% shift on two-party preferred. Labor now barely maintains overall majority status on the seat projection following a further loss of two seats, one in New South Wales and one in Victoria. Tony Abbott has also recovered the lead as preferred prime minister on the back of new figures from Newspoll and Essential Research. His net approval rating also continues to get less bad in the wake of MH17, although the rate of improvement has slowed and he is still well into the negative. Bill Shorten’s loss of the preferred prime minister mantle is not on account of his own rating, which has been steady since March outside of a brief spike in the wake of the budget. Full details as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,050 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.7-48.3 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 21
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  1. [As you can see, the poorest 20 per cent of households spend the most on owning and running their vehicles, while the rich spend the least, as a proportion of their income.

    None of this is a surprise. Transport has always cost the poor more than the rich, and Australia in the 21st century is no different.

    This means fuel excise is regressive. All indirect taxes are. It’s a basic tenet of tax theory. If Hockey had bothered to read Ken Henry’s comprehensive review of the tax system back in 2010, he would know this.]

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/08/14/its-economy-and-its-effect-poor-stupid

  2. [Govt cuts CSIRO biosecurity lab working on Ebola. Scientists to go.]

    Let’s be fair, CSIRO management would have decided where to cut, but .. .

  4. The ADF, on behalf of the Australian Freedom Loving People, have successfully dropped nine tonnes of supplies on the Yizadis.

    There may be a problem because apparently the PKK commie terrorists got the Yizadis off the mountain while no-one was looking. The relief supplies may be being eaten by mountain goats.

    But hey.

    By purest coincidence, Abbott was near some uniforms for yet another of his limitless supply of uniformed photo ops.

    Thanks be to Allah.

  5. Funny how Abbott gets a reduced rate from this mob.

    [Different countries have different labour rules, as Seyfarth Shaw well knows. The United States firm that specialises in employment law opened its Australian practice this week with just two of the eight local partners it has hired. The rest were held back by restrictive covenants that don’t exist in the firm’s home market.

    The crop of lawyers hired from Herbert Smith Freehills ,Ashurst and Arnold Bloch Liebler are part of Chicago-based Seyfarth’s expansion into the eastern hemisphere – it formally opened its Shanghai office earlier this month – as the firm widens its global presence to service clients with high-end legal advice and services.

    But with only Henry Skene from Arnold Bloch Liebler in Melbourne and Luke Edwards from Herbert Smith Freehills in Sydney opening the batting for the Seyfarth team in Australia this week, those restrictions are clearly at work. The remaining players are still benched by their current firms.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/professions/seyfarth_shaw_brings_process_led_bGAQiFZDAMQoGin1eJS4xO

    The new face of employment law, from the USA.

  6. 151 – its silly to say all indirect taxes are regressive. A tax on expensive cars would not be regressive. A tax on big financial transactions (probably not strictly an indirect tax) would be vey progressive?

  8. [I hereby do humbly apologise to anyone who was offended at the thought I might be likening them to Greens.]

    Pathetic.

    I made the inexcusable mistake of likening or PM to a tard & got snipped.

    Same should apply to bemused’s comment.

  9. CTaR1
    We were doing some walking au sud when the french started practising with their rafales. The aim seemed to be to see whether one could fly between the trees.

  12. Everything

    This is terribly sad for the family.

    Jill Wran returned to Sydney today and had little to say.

    The family must be in turmoil – I know I would be.

  14. [poroti
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 6:54 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    Are you sure you weren’t walking “au naturale” and the pilots were having a perv ?]

    They would have been flying at 40,000 metres.

  15. Bushfire Bill

    “Not that I shout at the screen all that often, but I couldn’t help yelling, “There’s no-one f**king THERE!!!” at the telly.”

    Better to be there and not be needed than to be needed and not there. I can only imagine the righteous outrage that would erupt if the latter was the case.

  16. ReachTel are polling.

    First asked for vote if election held now.

    The rest was all about the 6 month wait for the dole, and the Medicare co-payment, specifically in relation to how it would affect your voting intentions re the Palmer United Party.

    Only time any other party names were mentioned was the first question. Everything else sounded to me like the government trying to find out how the PUP supporters will jump on these issues.

  17. [absolutetwaddle

    Better to be there and not be needed than to be needed and not there. I can only imagine the righteous outrage that would erupt if the latter was the case.]

    Really? What exactly is Abbott doing about the millions (sic) of people displaced as a direct consequence of a war initiated by Bush, Blair and Howard?

  18. poroti@160

    ruawake

    The new face of employment law, from the USA.


    Some nasty little surprise(s) buried deep in the TPP ?

    The surprises buried in the TPP are not “little”. They are very large and very nasty. That’s why no-one is even allowed to discuss the draft.

    And that utter fool Abbott has already agreed to sign us up before the negotiations have even finished. Talk about being “sold down the river”!

  21. [Better to be there and not be needed than to be needed and not there.]

    I get the point but it’s not like we’re offering to help at the kids end of year school fete.

    In any case, there is more than enough to be done here in the name of aid rather than flying planes all over the place dropping supplies into areas where it is not reaching those it is intended for. Looks like grandstanding to me.

  24. absolutetwaddle

    The problem this news came over two days ago. Well before Operation Media Opportunity.

    [Updated: August 12, 2014 – 1:15 PM

    MALIKIYA, Syria — In a dusty camp here, Iraqi refugees have new heroes: Syrian Kurdish fighters who battled militants to carve out an escape route for tens of thousands trapped on a mountaintop.

    Kurdish fighters create safe passage for Iraqi Yazidis stranded for days on mountain .. had secured a safe valley passage, cramming Yazidis into jeeps, trucks … The U.S. has since assisted the peshmerga fighters with airstrikes]
    http://www.startribune.com/world/270931601.html

  27. re Ice

    [What puzzles me is that, given what is known about it, anyone would try it in the first place?]

    Because its fun*. D’uh….

    And because drug education is so bad that kids think one smoke of ice will see them looking like “faces of meth”. When their friends have some one weekend and spend the night dancing and rooting and then don’t have any for a month, don’t die or end up blowing creepy old men in alleys for cash, they think “Oh maybe drug education is all bullshit – Andy and Gina are fine and they use it”.

    The bad stuff comes later for those people who never have any control. There are heaps of people who use recreational drugs – stimulants and pills and don’t develop addictions.

    * I don’t think this can be stressed enough. With the exception of heroin (and probably alcohol for alcoholics), which seems to make some people feel normal/human, drugs are fun. Until this issue is acknowledged and addressed things won’t change. BTW This is not an endorsement of meth.

  29. CTar1@139

    bemused

    hereby do humbly apologise to anyone who was offended


    Try ‘Greenturds’ next time.

    It’s much more socially acceptable.

    Yes, I did think of switching that vowel.
    I value your second opinion on that. 😉

  30. [There may be a problem because apparently the PKK commie terrorists got the Yizadis off the mountain while no-one was looking. The relief supplies may be being eaten by mountain goats.]

    The goats and ISIL have promised to send Tones a ‘Thanks for the water’ message.

  31. Fair Dinkum! Prejudice the case…

    [@lucethoughts: After extensive advice from in-house lawyers today @abcnews decided to blur Harriet Wran’s face to avoid prejudicing the case.]

  35. Bw

    [The aim seemed to be to see whether one could fly between the trees.]

    You should not have been surprised by this.

    Poroti has posted numerous clips of the French AF showing much interest in remote beaches.

  36. The Nazis almost invaded Switzerland but never actually did, for reasons I’m not sure of. Hitler hated Switzerland and the Germans in there as it was a democracy.

    [Switzerland possessed the most disgusting and miserable people and political system. The Swiss were the mortal enemies of the new Germany.]

  37. Boerwar

    “Really? What exactly is Abbott doing about the millions (sic) of people displaced as a direct consequence of a war initiated by Bush, Blair and Howard?”

    Probably not enough? Point still stands.

  38. Further to Operation Photo Op. Notice the day !

    [The U.N. estimated around 50,000 Yazidis fled to the mountain. But by Sunday, Kurdish officials said at least 45,000 had crossed through the safe passage,]

  40. [The Nazis almost invaded Switzerland but never actually did, for reasons I’m not sure of.]

    I dare say Switzerland’s easily defendable mountainous terrain had a lot to do with it, and indeed much else about the country’s history.

  42. [The Nazis almost invaded Switzerland but never actually did, for reasons I’m not sure of.]

    How about all the sh*ts running the war(s) on both sides needed a safe haven to stuff away their loot. That I could believe.

  43. [absolutetwaddle
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 7:21 pm | Permalink

    Boerwar

    “Really? What exactly is Abbott doing about the millions (sic) of people displaced as a direct consequence of a war initiated by Bush, Blair and Howard?”

    Probably not enough? Point still stands.]

    Answer: nothing. SFA. De nada. Hundreds of thousands of them were/are christians but they were expendable. No stunts. Not photo ops. No 24/7. No Abbott standing next to uniforms solemnly intoning that Australia will be there.

    So your point ‘standing’ about Abbott feeding some Sinjar Moutain Goats and stray ISIS fighters is what, exactly?

  44. [CTar1
    Posted Thursday, August 14, 2014 at 7:20 pm | Permalink

    Bw

    The aim seemed to be to see whether one could fly between the trees.

    You should not have been surprised by this.

    Poroti has posted numerous clips of the French AF showing much interest in remote beaches.]

    Surprised, no.

    Slightly shocked by the sensurround experience…complete with the faint whiff of exhaust fumes… yes.

  45. [I dare say Switzerland’s easily defendable mountainous terrain had a lot to do with it]

    I think that even the Ukrainian component of the SS would have been bored bat-shit by occupying Switzerland -that should be taken into account as well.

  49. Cringeworthy.

    “The Australian drug addict who became the poster boy for terrorism.”

    Introduction by Uhlmann to tonight’s 7.30 Report.

  50. ABC’s Mat Brown still being ambiguous on the point of whether it was a C-130 or a C-17 dropping a load of pallets on Mount Sinjar. He mentions both but there’s only been one RAAF flight.

    The only thing certain is that the goats got water to drink and parachutes to eat. What variety of Middle Eastern characters got the water is very uncertain.

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