The only federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, and it’s none too eventful: two-party preferred is steady at 51-49 after successive one-point shifts to the Coalition over the previous two weeks, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 4% for Palmer United (down one to its lowest level since April). Further questions:
• Joe Hockey’s net approval rating has plunged since the question was last posed in November, now at 35% approval (down 10%) and 44% disapproval (up 16%). He is nonetheless given a higher rating on trust to handle the economy in comparison with Chris Bowen, at 34% to 23%.
• The government’s plan to require 40 job applications a month from the unemployed has 44% approval and 48% disapproval, which is a poor result as these things go. As if to illustrate that point, 68% are in favour of the unemployed doing up to 25 hours community service a week, with 25% opposed.
• Most respondents would prefer that Federal Police sent to the MH17 crash site be armed, with 64-25 in favour. An unarmed option draws a slightly lower net approval of 51-38.
• Relationships with other countries are deemed to be equally excellent in the case of the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, less good but still strong for Japan, China and India, mediocre with Indonesia, and very poor indeed with Russia.
After a fallow period, I’m resuming my practice of appending these posts with preselection news. The first glimmers of movement have appeared for a federal election still two years away:
• Brad Norington of The Australian reports talk of Barry O’Farrell succeeding Philip Ruddock in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney of Berowra. In a recent interview with the Seven Network, O’Farrell responded to a question about federal political aspirations by saying it was “an option”.
• A nominee for the fraught Liberal state preselection for the Sydney seat of Riverstone, Yvonne Keane, is said by Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald to be motivated by a desire to “gain some exposure before a possible tilt at Greenway at the 2016 election”. Greenway has twice stayed in Labor hands at the past two elections thanks in large part to the disastrous candidacy of Jaymes Diaz, whose family dynasty is a principal player in the Riverstone preselection.
Finally, a couple of links worth noting:
• The latest venture of the Poll Bludger’s benefactors at Private Media, The Mandarin, has two items of interest to election watchers – a report on the Australian Electoral Commission’s lack of enthusiasm for a substantial move to electronic voting, and one on the rights of public servants who stand for election.
• Shout out to two very good psephology blogs that took a long time to come to my notice. One is Phantom Trend by Jamie Hall, who “designed quant models for the RBA” and brings to the polling aggregation game superior statistical chops to my own. The other is Infographinomicon by “PsephologyKid”, who is presently on hiatus but has done some fine work on everything from the Tasmanian Legislative Council to the Eurovision song contest.
Centre@197
Oh right! So the likes of what has been revealed at ICAC deserves a second term as a reward?
You are simply a Lib fanboi.
Puffy
Penalty to the Ruddites, you started it. Will they take the two or go for the try 😐
bemused @ 193: Only if you think Brandeis is fit to be a magistrate.
WeWantPaul@200
The rationalisation for the criticism was the use of Jewish religious artifacts, the Yamulka and Star of David.
Doesn’t work with me as some of the worst in Israel are their fundy religious nutters.
WWP
Where is John Howard & his “political correctness” when you need him
pedant@203
I don’t actually, but he could do less harm there.
bemused
You want to compare that with Obeid and his cohorts?
Lt’s vote for the mafia party, we’ll give them a second chance.
bemused
but isn’t the Star of David on the Israeli flag
Centre@207
Labor is cleaning up its act.
And they will do less social harm than even the best possible Lib govt.
[The rationalisation for the criticism was the use of Jewish religious artifacts, the Yamulka and Star of David.
Doesn’t work with me as some of the worst in Israel are their fundy religious nutters.]
So let me get this right Israel is allowed to murder innocent children because some Palestinians are fundamentalist religious nutters, but it is offensive to mock Israelis and people of a fundy faith that like living in Israel with humor for their governments war crimes … hmmm
Puffy:
I think it’s pain enough for him that he must know he’ll not be remembered as anything other than a small-minded, whiteanting tosser who dropped the ball on AGW.
And I gotta say, after all he did to lose Labor govt, that totally works for me.
Many of Obeid’s cohorts are Libs.
[Could someone explain to me why it was the cartoon of someone in Israel bombing innocent people in Gaza that was offensive rather than the fact it is actually happening?]
I never got it either. Perhaps you had to be either Israeli or jewish.
[And they will do less social harm than even the best possible Lib govt.]
Hmmm tell that to the people ripped off by Obeid?
[Labor is cleaning up its act.]
Good, when its proven they’re now sparkling clean, they’ll be in contention. Maybe in another two terms if they’re lucky and if Mike B stuffs up.
To K17
I earlier mentioned what I thought about ripping music to a format for use in iPhones or iPods or the equivalent. Here is some links with discussions and an article to the legality of such “fair use”:
Whirlpool discussion on the legality of ripping CDs for personal use.
http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2014/07/ask-lh-is-it-legal-for-me-to-rip-my-blu-rays/
Pedant
Here is a journal article addressing the fact that Sir Owen Dixon wrote McTiernan’s judgments.
http://users.monash.edu/~ingrid/Publications/SeroussiSmythZukerman.pdf
confessions @ 211
Another penalty to the Ruddites, they’ve scored, 4 zip kick to come 😐
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/07/15/world/middleeast/israelis-watch-bombs-drop-on-gaza-from-front-row-seats.html?_r=0
I wonder what the response would be if the comic was to instead draw a regular looking Israeli (as opposed to one fitting the stereotype) sitting on the couch as the bombing goes on.
Earlier someone suggested Brandis appoint himself to the High Court as a somewhat graceful exit strategy from a ministerial post he is clearly struggling with.
Notwithstanding Brandis’ obvious high incompetence factor, I wouldn’t have thought this was even possible?
RAARAA – From the wikipedia entry “Copyright Law in Australia”
In late 2006, Australia added several ‘private copying’ exceptions. It is no longer an infringement of copyright to record a broadcast to watch or listen at a more convenient time (s 111), or to make a copy of a sound recording for private and domestic use (e.g., copy onto an iPod) (s 109A), or make a copy of a literary work, magazine, or newspaper article for private use (43C).
Centre@214
Oh well I guess you have thrown in your lot with Mad Lib.
I did not start it. But I am reading ‘Stalking of Julia Gillard’ at the moment, so my usually low opinion of that man who betrayed me as a voter just sank to the bottom of the waste bucket.
No man-love for that traitor is ever going to impress me.
Centre:
Wev. They wanna pitch a fit, they’re welcome to it. But they should know, they’ll get SFA from me as a result.
[Earlier someone suggested Brandis appoint himself to the High Court as a somewhat graceful exit strategy from a ministerial post he is clearly struggling with.
Notwithstanding Brandis’ obvious high incompetence factor, I wouldn’t have thought this was even possible?]
Probably not.
More likely he is going to be offered an ambassadorship to a “civilised” country where our bilateral relations cannot be jeopardised.
Fess
My joke. Cabinet appoints high court judges so he could be appointed.
Sir Edward McTiernan was appointed while the PM was overseas and against his wishes.
Centre
It is not a matter of only voting for the ALP when they are ‘squeaky clean’, if the other choice is as stinking as a carpet in a cat-hoarders loungeroom.
[Hmmm tell that to the people ripped off by Obeid?]
Yes, by Obeid and a fair share of Liberals.
Puffy
Umm, maybe the book you’re reading is a little one sided or half delusional dya-thunk!
In light of the plot to kill SA judges the commemoration of the attacks on Family Court judges in the 1980s
[In Memory. On 23 June 1980 Justice David Opas was shot dead at his home in Woollahra. On 6 March 1984 the home of Justice Richard Gee was bombed. Justice Gee was injured in the attack. On 15 April 1984 a bomb exploded on the premises of the Parramatta Family Court. On 4 July 1984 Mrs Pearl Watson, wife of Justice Raymond Watson, was killed by a bomb explosion at their home. The three judges referred to above were judges of the Family Court of Australia and these acts were directed at them in consequence of their office. This plaque is to commemorate the 25th Anniversary of these events and to honour those who were affected by them. It is also to acknowledge the courage and dedication of the judges and staff of the Family Court, and the legal profession particularly at Parramatta, who continued to serve the people of Australia.]
Puffy:
I have it in my Kobo to read, but am waiting for a suitable passing of time before I embark on it. So much of what she went through courtesy of that useless f*cker still reminds me of what so many women in the workforce are forced to endure courtesy of underperforming, and incompetent male colleagues like the former Member for Griffith.
The corruption of ALP in NSW 2007-2011 tends to obscure their hopelessness.
Dee
Don’t be silly, the power centred on Labor’s top dog crony – Obeid.
[More likely he is going to be offered an ambassadorship to a “civilised” country where our bilateral relations cannot be jeopardised.]
Yes, in the style of Jim Hacker I’m thinking Cultural Attache to some nuff nuff nation somewhere in BFE. 😀
SHELLBELL – That article on Dixon/McTiernan is hysterical, and rather shocking. Not sure that Dixon comes out of it very well. Wonder if Dixon was doing it to keep McTiernan onside (so that he would keep joining in his judgments). Reminds me of the story about Lord Denning when sitting on appeals. At the end of the hearing he would immediately launch into an extempore judgment so that the other two judges didn’t have a chance to prepare a dissent.
SHELLBELL – In this day and age, wouldn’t the Chief Justice have an effective power of veto? Would a PM foist upon him a judge he didn’t want???
shellbell:
I know it’s the Abbott govt, but surely even the Abbott govt wouldn’t be so lacking in self awareness as to appoint the hapless Brandis to the HC as a way of getting rid of him from the Cabinet table?
Actually, scratch that last thought. When you recall all the many and varied stupid things this govt has actually done, it is totally within the realms of possibility that it might even countenance appointing Brandis to the HC as a face saving exit strategy for him from Cabinet. 🙁
Raara@218
[I wonder what the response would be if the comic was to instead draw a regular looking Israeli]
Well, that would just be some version of upper middle bogan who lives across the road.
The all vote lib anyway.
Look, Kevin Rudd defeated John Howard to win an election. Rudd is credited with Australia avoiding a recession at the height of the GFC.
Gillard erred badly in 1) assuming the PMship from a first term democratically elected PM and 2) blatantly braking an election promise to appease the Greens – shocking judgement!
Earth to PB, earth to PB…
K17
According to the link
http://www.lifehacker.com.au/2014/07/ask-lh-is-it-legal-for-me-to-rip-my-blu-rays/
[Stupidly, yes. Under amendments made to the Australian Copyright Act in 2007, it is now legal for individuals to format shift analogue video (such as VHS movies) to a digital format for private and domestic use. However, the same permissions do not apply to DVDs or Blu-ray discs. ]
[With that said, you’d have to be extremely unlucky to fall foul of the law over such an inconsequential “crime” as this. To our knowledge, no Australian has ever been convicted for making copies of Blu-ray discs for their media server. It’s basically the 21st century equivalent of taping content off radio or TV — you’re not supposed to do it, but the potential repercussions are so low as to be practically non-existent. Take that for what it’s worth.]
I’m not sure what they say about copying digital audio from one format (CD) to another (MP3) but I don’t think anybody will be prosecuted anytime soon if this is indeed against Copyright law.
[Don’t be silly, the power centred on Labor’s top dog crony – Obeid.]
Who would have met his demise years earlier if there weren’t so many willing cohorts.
Not to mention, Rudd saved seats at the last election as Albo would testify.
Retweeted by Tony Windsor
Sir John Salmond @johnsalmond 6m
.@TonyHWindsor just saw this: RT @Vote_Labor THIS is what Abbott doing: demonising asylum seekers,& stimulating fear
Re PTMD @226: I was trying to think of a riposte to Centre’s comment @214 but you put it better than I could.
The treasurer has made a big mistake.
“Higher-income households pay half their income in tax,” Mr Hockey told Channel Nine this week while defending his budget.
He said it twice: “Higher-income households pay half their income in tax”.
It’s a simple enough mistake. Australians on the top tax rate do indeed pay 45 cents in the dollar. The rate cuts in at $180,000. They also pay the temporary deficit reduction levy (another 2 per cent), the Medicare levy (yet another 2 per cent) and the Medicare surcharge where applicable (a further 1.5 per cent). The total comes to 50.5 cents in the dollar.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/sorry-treasurer-but-your-tax-figures-are-a-long-way-wide-of-the-mark-20140805-3d6mq.html
Dee
You can’t tolerate a party controlled by an individual capable of spreading his corruption to other members of parliament from other parties.
They deserve a decade (pretty generous) in opposition at least.
Centre:
Thank goodness he’s departed politics. I think the saddest, most deluded thing about him is that he seemed to honestly expect the coalition govt would give him that overseas posting he wants.
They may still, but JBishop ruled that out as one of her first decisions as FM. When you think back to him happily answering her questions in QT about ‘returning to Boganville’ he arguably expected reward. But like a lot of try hards he got f*cked over by those he was trying to appeal to. Sad that he couldn’t see it himself.
Victoria, don’t forget the first $18k is tax free and then 19% of the next bracket etc. so I doubt many would be paying half their income as tax.
Also from my experience, large income earners seem to have ways to minimise their tax, especially if they own their own businesses.
PeEBee
That is precisely what Peter Martin states in his article
[Thank goodness he’s departed politics.]
I’m glad they’re both gone. Labor federally can now move on, strongly united and with much more to offer to the majority of Australians than Abbott and his extremists.