Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

An uneventful weekly reading on voting intention from Essential Research, aside from a weak result for Palmer United, livened up a little by poor personal ratings for Joe Hockey.

The only federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, and it’s none too eventful: two-party preferred is steady at 51-49 after successive one-point shifts to the Coalition over the previous two weeks, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 4% for Palmer United (down one to its lowest level since April). Further questions:

• Joe Hockey’s net approval rating has plunged since the question was last posed in November, now at 35% approval (down 10%) and 44% disapproval (up 16%). He is nonetheless given a higher rating on trust to handle the economy in comparison with Chris Bowen, at 34% to 23%.

• The government’s plan to require 40 job applications a month from the unemployed has 44% approval and 48% disapproval, which is a poor result as these things go. As if to illustrate that point, 68% are in favour of the unemployed doing up to 25 hours community service a week, with 25% opposed.

• Most respondents would prefer that Federal Police sent to the MH17 crash site be armed, with 64-25 in favour. An unarmed option draws a slightly lower net approval of 51-38.

• Relationships with other countries are deemed to be equally excellent in the case of the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, less good but still strong for Japan, China and India, mediocre with Indonesia, and very poor indeed with Russia.

After a fallow period, I’m resuming my practice of appending these posts with preselection news. The first glimmers of movement have appeared for a federal election still two years away:

Brad Norington of The Australian reports talk of Barry O’Farrell succeeding Philip Ruddock in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney of Berowra. In a recent interview with the Seven Network, O’Farrell responded to a question about federal political aspirations by saying it was “an option”.

• A nominee for the fraught Liberal state preselection for the Sydney seat of Riverstone, Yvonne Keane, is said by Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald to be motivated by a desire to “gain some exposure before a possible tilt at Greenway at the 2016 election”. Greenway has twice stayed in Labor hands at the past two elections thanks in large part to the disastrous candidacy of Jaymes Diaz, whose family dynasty is a principal player in the Riverstone preselection.

Finally, a couple of links worth noting:

• The latest venture of the Poll Bludger’s benefactors at Private Media, The Mandarin, has two items of interest to election watchers – a report on the Australian Electoral Commission’s lack of enthusiasm for a substantial move to electronic voting, and one on the rights of public servants who stand for election.

• Shout out to two very good psephology blogs that took a long time to come to my notice. One is Phantom Trend by Jamie Hall, who “designed quant models for the RBA” and brings to the polling aggregation game superior statistical chops to my own. The other is Infographinomicon by “PsephologyKid”, who is presently on hiatus but has done some fine work on everything from the Tasmanian Legislative Council to the Eurovision song contest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

881 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. Puff

    I find statements like “all the killing” a bit murdoch press biased.

    It seems to me it is palestinians who do the dying by a ratio of 2000/60 ie 100 dead palestinians for every 3 Isrealis. And that is before we count the thousands who will surely die of gastro without sanitation or refrigeration after power station destroyed.

  2. bemused,
    I could learn everything there is to learn about it, and I would still know bugger all. Other than adults are killing kids because both sets of adults think their cause is more important than the kids getting killed. Pox on both their Houses.

  3. I don’t give a damn for ratios. I made it clear what I think of them both. If I was Queen Solomon or whomever, I would make each side swap kids and bring the kids up in their natural parents religion.

  4. Puff, the Magic Dragon.@853

    I could learn everything there is to learn about it, and I would still know bugger all. Other than adults are killing kids because both sets of adults think their cause is more important than the kids getting killed. Pox on both their Houses.

    The demographics tell a fairly stark story.

    The population of Palestine got elbowed aside to provide a ‘Jewish Homeland’ largely due to European guilt over the holocaust.

    The mad extremists among Israelis want the Palestinians to simply disappear.

  5. What happened at Bondi is terrible.

    There has always been real anti-semitism* in Australia. Its never gone away, it just isn’t that comfortable showing its face since WW2. Scratch most of those Muslim hating anglos hard enough tho and you’ll find they don’t like Jews much either.

    *As opposed to legitimate criticism of Israel, which isn’t.

  6. I don’t think there will be progress until people stop assigning victim/persecutor/rescuer roles to the players in this conflict. Both sides are fulfilling all these roles, not just those held in their own and their supporters minds.

    Like I said, all sides deserve the opprobrium for not working this out decades ago. To contemplate killing innocent civilians including kids, which both sides have done, for some nationalistic cause is disgusting. I repeat: a pox on both their Houses.

  7. Psyclaw

    I couldn’t quite understand how BC got done for murder if the jury wasn’t even told that she was murdered. I would have thought that was a prerequisite.

  8. Puff

    Here is the story: – But I am using adelaide and SA instead of Israel – and Abramist instead of Jewish to avaid racist connotations. It could have happened ie tracts of australia used for a Jewish homeland it was seriously discussed.

    In the early 20th Century the British`government handed over half of Adelaide and 1/3 of SA as a Abramist homeland.

    The existing residents (about 500,000) in were forced to leave. Some of the wealthier landowners (like the Downers were paid compensation, but most had to settle in temporary refugee accommodation in Victor Harbour. There was not enough water and they were crowded in like sardines.

    The Australians got angry and said. Hey we want Adelaide back. They threatened violence and declared war.. However the Abramist friends Russia gave them lots of armaments so that when the Aussies and NZ forces tried to fight they lost big time. The result was that the Abramists and took an additional large stretch of SA.

    In addition they took control of the whole of SA so that the Australian section was not allowed to have a port, airport or major infrastructure. South Australians were not allowed to use some of the minor highways.

    The years went on and the Abramist homeland grew rich and prosperous while the sections with South Austrlians did not prosper. Water was allocated mostly to the Abramists.

    The Abramists wanted more land and gradually built settlements in the SA areas. The South Australians children watched their mothers carrying buckets of water while they could see Isreali children playing in the swimming pool.

    A bunch of political activists in Victor Harbour got angrier and angrier and stated chucking rockets (sent by Melboune) at the Abramist settlements. Rememnber that there is no industry or jobs in Victor Harbour because there is no port or major infrastructure so all the young guys are bored as hell.

    The kids in Victor Habour dared to throw stones. Lots of the kids in Victor harbour were arrested and locked up for YEARS for throwing stones.

    Each time that some of the bored and angry young hot heads in Victor harbour chucked a rocket that hit nothing but a cow or two, the Abramists blew up the house of someone who may or may not have been one of those who fired a rocket.

    The Abramists went on a spree of arentisting and killing lots and lots of young South Aussies, mostly in the Victor Harbour area.

    Finally we have a situation such that Victor Harbour is cut off from the rest of SA although they build a few tunnels. Food, water and jobs are scarce. The residents live in an enclosed ghetto that is worse than the warsaw ghetto because rather than lasting 5 years it has lasted for 50 years.

    Now when the angry bored hot heads fire a rocket into Abramistan, they are bombarded and 2000 people are killed, power station blown up.

  9. 2012 in QLD. Basically I have voted for a few political parties over 40+ years but more often Liberal than other parties. Personally I don’t believe in giving any political party 100% loyalty. I haven’t come across one who deserves that level of loyalty.

  10. DTT
    Well, I am an Aussie. Lines on the ground dividing people up into different countries is something I don’t get. I know it as a concept, but the reality of it surprises me when I encounter it. So the whole idea of some lines on a ME map having any meaning that people kill for and die for, makes no sense to me. Hence as I say, pox on both their houses.

    I would leave Victor Harbor and move to FNQ. I am not that enamoured of any patch of dirt.

  11. But I come from a long line of wanderers who do not think they have any connection to anything by right of history. It could be a deficit but I tend to think it is a blessing.

  12. I see Savva has taken up comedy

    anybody who thinks the LNP has a depth of talent compared to labor would be betting on Melbourne to win the premiership wouldn’t they?

    you’d think a LNP supporter would not dare talk about ‘gene pools’ given some of the seemingly inbred upper class twats such as Downer and Pyne and back-block hillbillies such as Christenson (who looks as though he has a few spare chromosomes and recessive genes)

  13. Interesting Brian Loughnane email at ICAC.

    Maybe his name won’t be mentioned again.

    And speaking of our government, is this, or is this not, the most poorly informed, incompetant, ideologically driven, bigoted lot we have ever seen?

    When the tradies start realising that Brandis is after their metadata, the libs are cactus.

  14. Brent must be looking for a redundancy package – although I guess the lunar rights anger at Brandis probably saw an article mitchell would usually spike to get through.

    Pyne is equally conceited – his effort on 7.30 this week where he basically said that critics needed to get pre-selected, elected and become education minister before their view had any legitimacy and he’d listen to them was astoundingly arrogant – reminded me of the Mitchell and Webb skits ‘and who has the captain’s hat?’ see:

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