The only federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, and it’s none too eventful: two-party preferred is steady at 51-49 after successive one-point shifts to the Coalition over the previous two weeks, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 4% for Palmer United (down one to its lowest level since April). Further questions:
• Joe Hockey’s net approval rating has plunged since the question was last posed in November, now at 35% approval (down 10%) and 44% disapproval (up 16%). He is nonetheless given a higher rating on trust to handle the economy in comparison with Chris Bowen, at 34% to 23%.
• The government’s plan to require 40 job applications a month from the unemployed has 44% approval and 48% disapproval, which is a poor result as these things go. As if to illustrate that point, 68% are in favour of the unemployed doing up to 25 hours community service a week, with 25% opposed.
• Most respondents would prefer that Federal Police sent to the MH17 crash site be armed, with 64-25 in favour. An unarmed option draws a slightly lower net approval of 51-38.
• Relationships with other countries are deemed to be equally excellent in the case of the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, less good but still strong for Japan, China and India, mediocre with Indonesia, and very poor indeed with Russia.
After a fallow period, I’m resuming my practice of appending these posts with preselection news. The first glimmers of movement have appeared for a federal election still two years away:
• Brad Norington of The Australian reports talk of Barry O’Farrell succeeding Philip Ruddock in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney of Berowra. In a recent interview with the Seven Network, O’Farrell responded to a question about federal political aspirations by saying it was “an option”.
• A nominee for the fraught Liberal state preselection for the Sydney seat of Riverstone, Yvonne Keane, is said by Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald to be motivated by a desire to “gain some exposure before a possible tilt at Greenway at the 2016 election”. Greenway has twice stayed in Labor hands at the past two elections thanks in large part to the disastrous candidacy of Jaymes Diaz, whose family dynasty is a principal player in the Riverstone preselection.
Finally, a couple of links worth noting:
• The latest venture of the Poll Bludger’s benefactors at Private Media, The Mandarin, has two items of interest to election watchers – a report on the Australian Electoral Commission’s lack of enthusiasm for a substantial move to electronic voting, and one on the rights of public servants who stand for election.
• Shout out to two very good psephology blogs that took a long time to come to my notice. One is Phantom Trend by Jamie Hall, who “designed quant models for the RBA” and brings to the polling aggregation game superior statistical chops to my own. The other is Infographinomicon by “PsephologyKid”, who is presently on hiatus but has done some fine work on everything from the Tasmanian Legislative Council to the Eurovision song contest.
poroti:
Was it twitter who called it a car crash?
Whatever it was it was bad. So bad Brandis should officially be ’embattled’ by now with all his stuff ups as a minister.
A one off or the first domino ?
[Italy falls back into recession]
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-28671107
Thanks a lot Kevin for empowering this lot shame about the country:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/icac-hears-liberal-party-boss-brian-loughnane-knew-developer-donations-went-through-federal-channels-20140806-100vlc.html
Next on the agenda for the Coalition?
Privatisation of Medibank.
If the Monkey manages to get the GP tax through, the shares (Medibank) will be a must get I reckon!
confessions
Better than twitter, the SMH link had it in the address.
[….george-brandis-in-car-crash-interview-over-controversial-data-retention-regime-20140806-101849.html]
Comfessions
Brandis was interviewed by Jon Faine Melbourne ABC radio this morning. Faine said wtte to Brandis that he sounded flat today, not his usual exciteable self. Brandis said not at all. But it was obvious, he has been wounded.
Well, I didn’t see too uch trouble with what Brandis was sort-of saying.
If you load a web site, it’ll be logged that you loaded it.
What’s on it is another thing. And what you read, or IF you read it, is another.
I wish I had $1 for every web site I’ve logged onto only to find out it was useless/boring/a-mistake/irrelevant.
Then again, I think of these and wonder what in the hell Brandis could possibly be interested in, as many I log onto are looking (interminably) for pretty-well literally nut-and-bolts.
Speaking of bolts…Bolt was on 2GB tonight and someone phoned in (to groans from Bolt and Steve Lewis) asking why the government thought it should get a free ride with the Senate. Why shouldn’t they negotiate like everybody else has to?
They were very rude to the caller. Something about “mandates”.
Bushfire Bill
Is Blot now a regular ? After 18c was deep sixed I checked out 2GB and found Bolta on in full martyr mode. Then moved on to be outraged at Carlton and his “vile” language. .
Oh dear! I just saw the Brandis Sky News interview. Probably the most inept ministerial performace I have EVER seen. The dill’s gotta go.
The East West Link tunnel battle has moved “underground” with claims historic titles give people ownership of their land to the centre of the earth – right in the path of the tunnel, according to legal experts.
Land titles pre-dating 1891 cover the ownership of sites from ground level to the planet’s core.
Manisha Blencowe, of Slater and Gordon, said the Linking Melbourne Authority would be forced to compulsorily acquire the land underneath houses on top of the proposed tunnel.
The houses would remain, but the authority could seize the subterranean land and property owners could seek compensation, she said.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/east-west-link-battle-goes-underground-20140806-1017er.html
Time to put on the tin foil.
Petrol being advertised at $1.39 a litre at Shell stations in Perth today.
Went to one after work – no regular, just premium at a higher price.
Went to another Shell – same story.
Went to a Caltex – $1.42 – all the standard you want.
I think the Indians are getting their own back.
779 Rossmore
My niece came for a visit from overseas a few months back and I tried to set her up with a prepaid SIM which needed to be activated online.
Apparently I could only activate it if I upload a copy of my photo ID. It took a painful few hours to get it done because I messed up the activation process once and had to call them up in the end.
Farewell from the Assyrian Christians expelled from Mosul/Nineveh…. the ancient capital of the Assyrians…..
http://rorate-caeli.blogspot.com/2014/08/goodbye-mosul.html#more
811 FS
I don’t think 3 cents / litre is worth the drive around looking for cheaper petrol.
Also don’t you have the PetrolWatch or what you call it out there to compare prices? I just look up Motormouth here before I go fill up.
813
There was a 7.30 report a few days back showing the Shiites joining the militia to fight the ISIS.
I wonder if what happened in Mosul has got some Assyrian Christians convinced to join the Iraqi army to get back their homeland, or some other militia of some sort.
Jules
People here get their info on the recent war in Gaza from various sources and Israel tends to get bad, inaccurate and superficial coverage. Earlier today I suggested that people consult the Israeli press, and not only the far-left Haaretz. Israel has a free press in a country of free speech and democracy, unlike Qatar. However to some PBers Al Jazeera, whose owner is the Qatar royal family that finances terrorist groups like Hamas & Islamic Jihad, is somehow considered more authoritative.
There is no reason to disbelieve the reports of field commanders and here below is today’s Jpost article again and it’s consistent with what I’ve heard from recent personal accounts and supports IDF’s claims that it does not target civilians and is one of the most moral armies in the world. In Israel everyone has kids, rellies, friends or neighbours or workmates in the military so obvious untruths are quickly pounced on.
From Jpost
On the first full day of a truce with Hamas, the IDF redeployed behind the Israeli border, and senior army officers began sharing their war stories. The accounts all point to a cruel and cynical enemy that is willing to use kindergartens, schools and hospitals as rocket bases and tunnel covers, and which actively seeks to get Gazan civilians killed and injured. One source on Tuesday spoke of how the army uncovered the Gazan shaft of a cross-border tunnel. It surfaced in a hothouse located right next to a Palestinian kindergarten. It led directly to Kibbutz Netiv Ha’asara, where Hamas gunmen planned to massacre civilians. Other units found rocket launch tripods in school playgrounds. “At the entrance to Beit Hanun, there were more homes with booby-traps than not,” said another army officer. “Much of the destruction of homes in Gaza was because of Hamas’s booby traps.” A brigade commander saw seven buildings utterly destroyed, when IDF shells set off bombs planted by Hamas inside them. “You see the buildings jump up and collapse, and you know a shell can’t do that to a multi-story building,” the source said.
In recent days, the IDF came under increased Hamas mortar fire, and when it traced the origin of the attacks, it found that they came from kindergartens and playgrounds in Gaza. “This limited us a lot,” said a source. “It forced us to take many risks. In some places we refrained from acting. In others, when we had no choice, we fired back.” Soldiers spoke of finding antitank missile launchers in children’s bedrooms, and automatic rifles in a room next to a child’s bedroom.
“There are certain things that, until you encounter them yourself on the battlefield, you can’t understand them,” said a source. “Only in combat can you learn these things,” he added, referring to the deep knowledge the IDF has recently obtained of Hamas by confronting it on its home turf. This process explains how the ground offensive became focused on destroying the tunnels. The threat of underground passages leading from Gaza into Israel had been known for years, but only recently did the IDF realize how Hamas planned to use them. Hamas planned coordinated, simultaneous raids by hundreds of terrorists, who would have entered southern Israel and simply massacred the inhabitants of southern communities. Had Hamas’s plot succeeded, the attack could have been the worst in Israeli history.
The same sources, when discussing Palestinian casualties, said they were up front about the Gazan civilians who were unintentionally killed in IDF strikes. Well over 900 terrorists were killed in Gaza, according to the sources, and the civilian-to-combatant casualty ratio was one of the lowest in recent wars fought by Western armies against guerrilla foes. Stories also continue to abound of strikes canceled by the IDF. “Hamas has a command and control center in a building. I did not give the order to hit it,” a senior officer said. The officers cited the “personal damage to Hamas battalion commanders, who used their homes as command and control centers, and now have no where to return to.”
A senior IDF commander added, “Gaza is totally different now. Hamas built capabilities it could not effectively activate. Islamic Jihad’s apparatus has been taken apart. We were not willing to strike Hamas brigade commanders who hid under Shifa Hospital. That’s a victory we could not live with.
———————————————————
William, and with that I’ll give it a rest and stop cluttering up your Poll Blog. I still believe that extreme leftism is an incurable disease and it seems to have spread even more among your contributors during my absence, notwithstanding deblonay’s disappearance.
Ah, but you see the service stations in Perth up their prices by up to 20 cents a litre on Thursdays and the prices don’t go down again till the following Tuesday.
If you don’t fill up by Wednesday night you pay up to $12 – $13 a tank more.
I didn’t want premium so I had to move on.
Normally I use the same 2 or 3 stations on my route.
an interesting photo of 9 European kings together in 1910 ….. quite a few gone in the next decade……
First question I would ask George Brandis in an interview: George, have you ever been on the internet?
mikehilliard
A live stream of the Rosetta rendezvous.
[ The Rosetta comet rendezvous will happen on Wednesday and the European Space Agency will live stream the event from its headquarters in Darmstadt, Germany, beginning at 4 a.m. EDT]
http://www.livestream.com/eurospaceagency?utm_source=lsplayer&utm_medium=embed&utm_campaign=footerlinks
817
It used to be that regular here, so I filled up on Tuesdays or Wednesday (I last about 2 weeks on a tank, so fill half tank to full), but ever since about a year ago, there’s a random 10 to 15 day up and down cycle now.
So now it gets a bit more tricky predicting when the price will peak and bottom. I try to fill around twice during the lower part of the cycle and try my best to fill the second time during the bottom before the sudden rise.
Yes, there can be about a 20 cent difference between the peak and bottom.
Retweeted by sortius
MetaHyperBrendan @HyperBrendan 6m
Fairly sure the Government think that technology is something that happens to other people
Kenneth Tsang @jxeeno 1m
For those who don’t subscribe to AusNOG ML, excellent questions from an operator’s POV on #DataRetention: http://lists.ausnog.net/pipermail/ausnog/2014-August/025962.html …
Just 5 rounds to go before the final series in the NRL.
Tips for this weekend:
– Manly
– Bulldogs
– Storm
– Cows
– Parra
– Dragons
– Warriors
– Roosters
Dragons/Panthers nearly too close to call, Newcastle in with a great chance (in fact they’ll win you watch) and Tigers with return of their halfback could cause an upset.
Manly and the Bulldogs will get the cash 😎
Awesome thanks Centre
For the topical coin collectors:
http://www.ebay.com.au/gds/Palestine-Coins-of-1927-46-A-guide-for-eBay-collectors-/10000000000770353/g.html?clk_rvr_id=676494748504
http://www.coinfactswiki.com/wiki/Palestine_1927_10_mils
I know I signed out but that link to the Mosul Xtians from swamprat @ 813 was just heartbreaking.
http://rorate-caeli.blogspot.com/2014/08/goodbye-mosul.html#more
Hopefully the West will wake up soon to what awaits the world, starting with the ME, from the followers of the “New Islam” (sic), referring to the jihadists.
Josh Taylor @joshgnosis 1m
“It’s the same name with meta stuck on the front” RT @monkeytypist: #metadata http://youtu.be/5FRVvjGL2C0
Dear Australia, wake up you idiots!
paaptsef
You can send me your credit card details 😀
*night
[ William, and with that I’ll give it a rest and stop cluttering up your Poll Blog. ]
Yay!
Mick77@827
I see from earlier posts that you have ceased your war on paragraphs. We are making progress.
My father served in the RAAF in WWII and in around 1941 was in ‘Palestine’ while they launched attacks on the Vichy French in Syria. He was quite emphatic in conversations with me before his death that there was no Israel!
If one looks at the demographics of Palestine, by 1947, Jews comprised less than 1/3 of the population of Palestine. This was a spectacular increase from 1850 when they comprised only 4% of the population were Jews.
I have nothing against Jews, they were entitled to migrate there just as they are entitled to migrate to Australia.
But Israel has been different. They have dispossessed the majority inhabitants and inflicted a great injustice. Palestinians who owned farms and houses in what is now Israel cannot return and take possession of their property. This is wrong.
The whole situation is a mess and it is difficult to see a way forward.
I would suggest a reaching out to Palestinians and respect for their rights would be a damn good start and many enlightened Israelis hold similar views.
[ I know I signed out but that link to the Mosul Xtians from swamprat @ 813 was just heartbreaking. ]
Please tell us about how you and George W expected everything to be wonderful for Christians in Iraq
Mick77
Your characterisation of people who disagree with you politically as ‘mentally ill’ is roughly as stupid as it is offensive. Not to mention false.
That said, I agree with you in that PB has turned into an anti-Israel echo chamber lately. It seems lots of posters here are quite happy to continue pretending terrorism is resistance. It’s not, and Hamas does Palestine far more harm than good.
Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
Margo Kingston @margokingston1 11h
.@MikeCarlton01 same happened to me, Mike. Pushed out for political reasons. Anything goes on the Right while progressives are shut down.
Mick 77
re What you asked Diogenes to tell, way back.
I guess a poor memory is a necessary bit of equipment for you.
1. You argued that the evidence was not enough to convict Baden-Clay
2. You listed certain questions that B-C “should’ve been asked.
3. I asked you how you knew which questions were not asked.
4. You disappeared for 3 weeks or so without answering
5. Today you still have not answered, preferring to play dumb about your earlier posts
Please don’t concern yourself about whether or not I am “literate”. Better to concentrate on some simple exercises to improve your memory.
although I rejoice as this government stumbles from one fuck up to the next, I can’t help thinking they look a lot like the first year of Howard in 1996/97. The polls now are very winnable for Abbott – he’ll pick his moment in 2016, and the murdoch media will contrive an emergency for him to do his Very Very Serious Statesman posturing.
Goodness me
[JEWISH schools are on high alert after eight drunken men stormed a school bus and threatened to cut Jewish children’s throats this afternoon.
The men allegedly boarded the bus which was carrying children from Mount Sinai, Mariah and Emanuel kindergarten in Bondi.
One witness said her three daughters aged eight, 10 and 12 on the bus were traumatised.
“The bus driver opened the doors for these strange men and allowed them on to torment the kids,” Jackie Blackburn said.]
http://m.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/bondi-racist-bus-attack-jewish-schools-on-alert-after-eight-men-threaten-to-cut-schoolkids-throats/story-fni0cx4q-1227015860427?nk=13a963b2ad9512360c70572360098c8d
[ although I rejoice as this government stumbles from one fuck up to the next, I can’t help thinking they look a lot like the first year of Howard in 1996/97. The polls now are very winnable for Abbott – he’ll pick his moment in 2016, and the murdoch media will contrive an emergency for him to do his Very Very Serious Statesman posturing. ]
Lets hope you aren’t the only person who realises this incompetent joke of a government is an incompetent joke of a government
Victoria,
That is outrageous. What the hell is the matter with people? Has the world gone completely mad?
[It seems lots of posters here are quite happy to continue pretending terrorism is resistance. It’s not…]
Wait a minute … what?
Terrorism is resistance. The only difference is in the eye of the beholder.
victoria@837
Where the Fuck is Mick77 when you really need him?
Puffy
It does seem outrageous. I will see how the rest of the msm reports this incident.
Mick77:
I honestly can’t comprehend how you can fail to see the outrageous bias of your favourite Israeli media outlets. The very coverage you quoted from the Jerusalem Post is quite clearly trying to demonise Palestinians – to portray them as inhuman monsters – yet you seem to believe that it’s a true account of the “real existential threat” faced by Israel. This is exactly the same thing as the Murdoch media trotting out the absurd lies of Scott Morrison as he tries to convince Australia at large that refugees are the real enemy.
Israel holds the economic and military power. It’s the only one in a position to make a genuine move towards peace and resolution.
Diogenes
Not sure of the specifics of why that evidence was not allowed in Baden-Clay. But the judge certainly decided that it would not be helpful to the jury’s task, and probably would have been unhelpful.
But to speculate as an example only, it could have been something to do with the continuity of evidence ie that the evidence was or was not treated securely and appropriately at all times.
Let’s say Mrs B-C’s body met with an accident at some stage after being found. This could lead to unhelpful discussions as to what specifically were the pre and post-mortem damages to her body. Or there might have been some stuff up in the autopsy process which could not be corrected by a second autopsy …… maybe she’d been cremated before the stuff up was identified.
It all sounds a bit fantasy-like but certainly there was an argument about the admissability of that evidence and the judge came down on the defence’s side.
jules@840
Seems the pretenders include this old Jew. http://www.richardsilverstein.com/2013/04/09/last-of-warsaw-ghetto-survivors-calls-for-rebellion-against-israeli-occupation/
But hey, what would she know? She is only a survivor of the Warsaw Ghetto.
Sorry Mick, her cred is very high, yours is zero.
What I know about the Israel/Palestine can be written on the back of an envelope (small), but my opinion is that the whole lot make me sick. As far as I can see there will be no stop to the killing of civilians, including kids, for many decades. When both sides have had their fill of death, maybe they will stop. But it does not really matter what i think, anyway. Ir has no impact on anything.
victoria@842
It is indeed outrageous. Australians of any religious/cultural/ethnic background should not be subjected to such behaviour and the perpetrators punished to the full extent of the law.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@846
Puffy, you will get a little bit of background here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_Palestine
Night all
[ It does seem outrageous. I will see how the rest of the msm reports this incident. ]
So outrageous, and in the Daily Telegraph, that i will await confirmation that it actually happened from other sources before commenting. 🙁
[ But hey, what would she know? She is only a survivor of the Warsaw Ghetto. ]
That’s one of the weird things about the Gaza / Israeli thing. With the restrictions on movement and blockade its effectively the Gaza Ghetto. How did a country like Israel come to be keepers of a place like that??