The only federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, and it’s none too eventful: two-party preferred is steady at 51-49 after successive one-point shifts to the Coalition over the previous two weeks, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 4% for Palmer United (down one to its lowest level since April). Further questions:
• Joe Hockey’s net approval rating has plunged since the question was last posed in November, now at 35% approval (down 10%) and 44% disapproval (up 16%). He is nonetheless given a higher rating on trust to handle the economy in comparison with Chris Bowen, at 34% to 23%.
• The government’s plan to require 40 job applications a month from the unemployed has 44% approval and 48% disapproval, which is a poor result as these things go. As if to illustrate that point, 68% are in favour of the unemployed doing up to 25 hours community service a week, with 25% opposed.
• Most respondents would prefer that Federal Police sent to the MH17 crash site be armed, with 64-25 in favour. An unarmed option draws a slightly lower net approval of 51-38.
• Relationships with other countries are deemed to be equally excellent in the case of the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, less good but still strong for Japan, China and India, mediocre with Indonesia, and very poor indeed with Russia.
After a fallow period, I’m resuming my practice of appending these posts with preselection news. The first glimmers of movement have appeared for a federal election still two years away:
• Brad Norington of The Australian reports talk of Barry O’Farrell succeeding Philip Ruddock in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney of Berowra. In a recent interview with the Seven Network, O’Farrell responded to a question about federal political aspirations by saying it was “an option”.
• A nominee for the fraught Liberal state preselection for the Sydney seat of Riverstone, Yvonne Keane, is said by Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald to be motivated by a desire to “gain some exposure before a possible tilt at Greenway at the 2016 election”. Greenway has twice stayed in Labor hands at the past two elections thanks in large part to the disastrous candidacy of Jaymes Diaz, whose family dynasty is a principal player in the Riverstone preselection.
Finally, a couple of links worth noting:
• The latest venture of the Poll Bludger’s benefactors at Private Media, The Mandarin, has two items of interest to election watchers – a report on the Australian Electoral Commission’s lack of enthusiasm for a substantial move to electronic voting, and one on the rights of public servants who stand for election.
• Shout out to two very good psephology blogs that took a long time to come to my notice. One is Phantom Trend by Jamie Hall, who “designed quant models for the RBA” and brings to the polling aggregation game superior statistical chops to my own. The other is Infographinomicon by “PsephologyKid”, who is presently on hiatus but has done some fine work on everything from the Tasmanian Legislative Council to the Eurovision song contest.
The latest Ipsos Mind & Mood spotlight report on Consumer Sentiment post the Federal Budget is now available. I think this is the one Fairfax reported on a week ago. Worth a look.
http://ipsos.com.au/mind-mood-spotlight-report-consumer-sentiment-post-federal-budget/
[Mind & Mood spotlight report – Consumer Sentiment post federal budget
August 5, 2014 by
During the fieldwork for our report Private Label, Premium Brand we asked our groups how they were feeling about their economic situation and the economy in general since the federal budget was announced in May 2014. This spotlight report summarises the findings.]
http://ipsos.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2014/08/MM-spotlight-report-Consumer-Sentiment-post-federal-budget.pdf
Can we return to the halcyon days of PMJG?
– Joe Conomics is more trusted than Chris Bowen to handle the economy.
– Nearly half approve of the unemployed lodging 40 fake job applications a month.
– Two/thirds want the unemployed to work 25 hours a week for dole money.
– The same percentage as directly above want our police to be sent to the MH17 crash site armed regardless of the fact that they could return home in a body bags.
– We like USA, UK and NZ, dislike Indonesia, pissed with Russia.
Welcome to the real world 😯
Andrew Bolt is such a whining sook.
Here’s something from the judgement (in case anyone forgot) re the good faith test:
[23. I have not been satisfied that the offensive conduct that I have found occurred, is exempted from unlawfulness by section 18D. The reasons for that conclusion have to do with the manner in which the articles were written, including that they contained errors of fact, distortions of the truth and inflammatory and provocative language.]
http://www.austlii.edu.au/au/cases/cth/FCA/2011/1103.html
This is for Bolt.
[Don’t worry Bolt will get over it.]
Oh, I’m not worried. It’s just that he made such a complete goose of himself over this.
Remember the sulking during the first week? The self-censorship? The noble silences?
Then came the spruiking and the rabid cheer-leading. What a dill, stillan official bigot and still trying to convince himself he’s special to his pal, Tony.
When it comes to betrayal, Tony Abbott is a true democrat, egalitarian to a fault. Everyone cops it. It’s just mugs like Bolt who can’t see it coming.
Call themselves political savants? No way.
Speaking of the real world, I heard from my energy provider today. They’re going to refund carbon tax money in full back dated from July 1.
Yahoopy woo!!
I thank the Greens for putting more money into my pocket care of their lunacy 🙂
In further free speech news, Mike Carlton told off by the boss for exercising his a little too robustly:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/statement-from-the-sydney-morning-herald-editorinchief-darren-goodsir-20140805-100t45.html?utm_source=twitter&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=nc&eid=socialn%3Atwi-13omn1677-edtrl-other%3Annn-17%2F02%2F2014-edtrs_socialshare-all-nnn-nnn-vars-o%26sa%3DD%26usg%3DALhdy28zsr6qiq
[I am hoping that four years of war commiseration really will make people realise the stupidity of going to war.]
Jeez yes please. Everything about this govt screams chaos, disorder and policy stuff ups.
Oops, that should’ve been a response to returning to the JG era.
Re Centre @156: don’t spend your $550 all in one place.
Two contrasting military organisations shown on ABC this evening…
Australian yobs in Afghanistan & Norway’s grown up mature conscript men & women
Of course there is a difference between war & peace activities but the comparison is relevant.
Chances are also high that the Norwegians experience few mental issues with their approach.
unbelievable that Bolt and Wilson are making so much noise about 18 C yet not making a sound about the proposed data retention laws…Hypocrites!
Steve
Better be $550 or Monkey in big trouble!
liyana
Wilson has spoken against it.
Centre:
NSW govt facing an election early next year prompting that decision perhaps?
Martin B @ 141
Words have consequences, as propagandists like Murdoch, Bolt, and Abbott know all too well and exploit all too willingly and ruthlessly.
Centre@156
I fail to join in your glee.
Do you have a position on addressing climate change caused by human endeavours or are all your posts in this regard directed toward slagging the Greens.
This is a genuine question. PS I don’t vote Green.
What, do I have to vote again next year in State election?It only seemed a year ago tops that I voted for Fatty O Barrell.
I think I’ll be sticking with Mike Baird – he’s OK.
[Mike regrets his behaviour]
Bullshit
mikeh
Get real!
I have put forward my position on appropriate action for climate change on many occasions.
Now, I’ll take the money – thanks!
[I have become aware that Mike Carlton has corresponded with some Herald readers and letter writers using inappropriate and offensive language.
This behaviour is completely unacceptable.]
Which readers and letter writers?
The abusive ones he posted on twitter????
[They’re going to refund carbon tax money in full back dated from July 1.]
Just wait until Centre finds out that his Energy Supplier is refunding him $2.35.
[It’s just that he made such a complete goose of himself over this.]
He makes a complete goose of himself on most issues.
Centre@170
[I have put forward my position on appropriate action for climate change on many occasions.]
I must have missed that other than f***k the greens.
CTar
No, savings will amount to around 11% they reckon.
[I must have missed that other than f***k the greens.]
I will correct that:
[I must have missed that other than L-OO-NY greens]
[Barry O’Farrell @barryofarrell 46s
entertaining radio?! @2GB873 Bolt & Price ‘outraged’ by Fed Govt’s 18C decision. So irrational they’re almost humorous.
]
the most interesting thing about this tweet from BarryO is that he actually listens to 2GB
Centre
OK
Dee:
Sometimes in his columns he mentions he’s received letters during the week that disagree with his previous week’s output. I can imagine some of those who write in aren’t nice, and so maybe it’s those people who he’s been frank with.
I agree with shellbell though: bet he ain’t sorry about his attitude towards them. 🙂
mikehilliard@152
Her departure?
[Richard Tuffin @richardtuffin 17m
2GB Listeners are currently berrating Tony Abbott and the LNP.]
the Mensa crowd who listen to 2GB are bottom dwellers. Abbott may find that id you lay down with dogs…
Apologies for the mixed metaphors.
I got robo polled tonight in what turned out to be most likely the Victorian ALP.
The give away was that after answering a battery of questions on importance of issues, there was a question on party leanings and when I indicated ALP, I was promptly offered the opportunity to find out how I could help the campaign.
Reasonably well done for that type of exercise.
Shellbell @ 144: To get to the High Court, Senator Brandeis would want to be able to demonstrate that he’s better qualified for such an appointment than Carmody CJ. There doesn’t seem to be much evidence in support of that at the moment.
Confessions
[Jeez yes please. Everything about this govt screams chaos, disorder and policy stuff ups.]
Cannot imagine what viewers and listeners make of the Coalition. Within short spaces of time ministers are continually contradicting each other on all manner of issues.
mmm Wilson has objected to the data retention laws? good…wonder what he’ll do about it?
Pedant
I think he is better qualified not that that is saying much.
Centre – moved residence have we? Votes for O’Farrell whie in Ku-ring-gai and next for Baird in Manly. I think Barry o was quite good premier and I am not decided on Baird as yet. There will be better balance in Parliament after the election and I hope it is need IMHO.
Centre@176
Says he who voted for the Libs last time and says he will do it next time.
So who’s the L-OO-N now?
[Cannot imagine what viewers and listeners make of the Coalition.]
FWIW my own social network think they’re completely off the rails.
Keyman@187
Check ICAC proceedings and you won’t need to look any further. They are Faaaarking Libs. ’nuff said.
Shellbell @ 186: It isn’t saying much. Brandeis on the High Court would make Murphy look good, or even McTiernan.
Via Mark Colvin, The Oz’s delightful Cut & Paste taken in by fake Barrie Cassidy account:
https://twitter.com/Colvinius/status/496610324548579329
pedant@191
Wouldn’t Carmody’s elevation in Qld have left a vacancy suitable for Brandis to fill?
I prefer the halcyon days when that traitor Rudd got his. Slithering through the gutters if history, that snake will be remembered as embodiment of treason towards the ALP and the selling out the people the ALP supports, just to salve his over-inflated self-opinion and toxic ego.
I think I will by a KevinO7 tee shirt on Ebay just so my dog can pee on it.
[Via Mark Colvin, The Oz’s delightful Cut & Paste taken in by fake Barrie Cassidy account:]
Hilarious. 😆
Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor 3m
Remember Mr Abbott said he would do anything to be PM-didn’t mention what he would do after that- hence today’s Team and terrorist nonsense
Keyman
You’re probably right, you always want a strong opposition. Still, I’m going to stick with the Libs.
One term in the wilderness for a party that had the likes of Obeid and Tripodi in its ranks is not enough.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@194
Buy your self a present Puffy, to use on Julia.
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcREyY90k-KnbKezJ1hPSOVvM_lkruuNWCkb8LLG5q97jH7O2EHV
129 citizen
[Electoral changes in ACT for 2016 election]
I will be looking forward to Antony Green’s latest write up on this.
Could someone explain to me why it was the cartoon of someone in Israel bombing innocent people in Gaza that was offensive rather than the fact it is actually happening?