The only federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, and it’s none too eventful: two-party preferred is steady at 51-49 after successive one-point shifts to the Coalition over the previous two weeks, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 4% for Palmer United (down one to its lowest level since April). Further questions:
• Joe Hockey’s net approval rating has plunged since the question was last posed in November, now at 35% approval (down 10%) and 44% disapproval (up 16%). He is nonetheless given a higher rating on trust to handle the economy in comparison with Chris Bowen, at 34% to 23%.
• The government’s plan to require 40 job applications a month from the unemployed has 44% approval and 48% disapproval, which is a poor result as these things go. As if to illustrate that point, 68% are in favour of the unemployed doing up to 25 hours community service a week, with 25% opposed.
• Most respondents would prefer that Federal Police sent to the MH17 crash site be armed, with 64-25 in favour. An unarmed option draws a slightly lower net approval of 51-38.
• Relationships with other countries are deemed to be equally excellent in the case of the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, less good but still strong for Japan, China and India, mediocre with Indonesia, and very poor indeed with Russia.
After a fallow period, I’m resuming my practice of appending these posts with preselection news. The first glimmers of movement have appeared for a federal election still two years away:
• Brad Norington of The Australian reports talk of Barry O’Farrell succeeding Philip Ruddock in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney of Berowra. In a recent interview with the Seven Network, O’Farrell responded to a question about federal political aspirations by saying it was “an option”.
• A nominee for the fraught Liberal state preselection for the Sydney seat of Riverstone, Yvonne Keane, is said by Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald to be motivated by a desire to “gain some exposure before a possible tilt at Greenway at the 2016 election”. Greenway has twice stayed in Labor hands at the past two elections thanks in large part to the disastrous candidacy of Jaymes Diaz, whose family dynasty is a principal player in the Riverstone preselection.
Finally, a couple of links worth noting:
• The latest venture of the Poll Bludger’s benefactors at Private Media, The Mandarin, has two items of interest to election watchers – a report on the Australian Electoral Commission’s lack of enthusiasm for a substantial move to electronic voting, and one on the rights of public servants who stand for election.
• Shout out to two very good psephology blogs that took a long time to come to my notice. One is Phantom Trend by Jamie Hall, who “designed quant models for the RBA” and brings to the polling aggregation game superior statistical chops to my own. The other is Infographinomicon by “PsephologyKid”, who is presently on hiatus but has done some fine work on everything from the Tasmanian Legislative Council to the Eurovision song contest.
Oh Dear.
Shorter Abbott:
Well, we still think people have a right to be bigots but since most people dont understand why thats soooooo true we wont legislate it…..yet. And i am sure Andrew will vote for us anyway. 🙂
Yes, Abbott’s populism a Trojan Horse. The Boats, the dogwhistling, banging on about the ‘monstrous inequities’ of the Carbon Tax and the Mining Tax, ‘Waste and Mismanagement’ and, when he thought he couldn’t go against a good idea of the Government, ‘Unity tickets’. Labor should make sure the voters appreciate how they’ve been fooled.
Steve777
Yep trojan house fits the bill
[He won’t he a happy chappy …Lol!!]
Get ready for a few more sulky sulk “I’m not allowed to comment on this” columns.
How things have changed! Not long ago this article would have cited him in name only and omit his experience and credentials.
Header in local rag in finance and business.
[Leading economist keynote speaker at Ag in Asian Century
With more than 35 years experience as a leading economist in public policy, politics and public service, it is a major coup that Toowoomba and Surat Basin Enterprise has secured Mr Emerson as one of the keynote speakers for its inaugural Ag in the Asian Century conference in Toowoomba this October.]
[lizzie
Posted Tuesday, August 5, 2014 at 5:56 pm | PERMALINK
Is this “Team Australia” an Abbott brain fart? What’s it supposed to mean? Mockery is all over my twitterstream.]
It seems he’s moved from military metaphors to sporting metaphors.
Perhaps he now wants Australians to consider him as their team captain who must be obeyed.
lizzie
Posted Tuesday, August 5, 2014 at 5:56 pm | PERMALINK
Is this “Team Australia” an Abbott brain fart? What’s it supposed to mean? Mockery is all over my twitterstream.
The idea stinks so it must be a brain fart, surely a thought bubble would not smell too bad
Team Australia? That is too corny to be real, surely? Then again, we are talking Abbott.
[Abbott: I don’t want to do anything that would put our national unity at risk AT THIS TIME.]
What national unity? You don’t have one.
We won.
[Something exciting has just happened in the last couple of hours.
After a huge response from all sections of the community, the Government has backtracked on changes to section 18c of the Racial Discrimination Act, dropping their changes that would water down protections against racial vilification.
So many of you have been involved in voicing your opposition to these changes and today you’ve won. Whether you simply shared a Facebook graphic, made a submission to the enquiry or attended a rally against these changes — thank you.
What this proves is that though it’s heartbreaking to see the cruel and unfair policies of the Abbott Government, by speaking up and joining together, we can win. And over the coming years we must not forget it.
I, Bill Shorten and Labor couldn’t be happier to let you know the good news that Australia will continue to have strong protections against racism. If you’re as happy as I am then please share this graphic on Facebook and if not that, tell your friends and family about this great news.
Thank you again to everyone who helped make this happen. Together we’ve stood up and we’ve made a difference.
Mark Dreyfus
Shadow Attorney-General]
When Abbott mentions Team Australia he is really thinking about Team America
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TaAtOTot6rk
@ruawake/110
So now the Coalition Party are moving towards surveillancing and treating everyone with suspicion and full swing on anti-piracy.
[When Abbott mentions Team Australia he is really thinking about Team America]
Team Abbott, I think you meant.
Lot of similarities between Rabbott & Co and Team America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HIPljGWGNt4
The 18c song..
[
When danger reared it’s ugly head,
He bravely turned his tail and fled.
Yes, brave Sir Abbott turned about
And gallantly he chickened out.
Bravely taking to his feet,
He beat a very brave retreat.
Bravest of the braaaave, Sir Abbott]
Peter Breen has been everything in life but successful
[Ben Pobjie @benpobjie 9m
If you want quality babble, hand-crafted babble, like the babble you remember from simpler times, there’s Chris Kenny.]
[Liberal MP for Reid Craig Laundy was among a group of Coalition backbenchers who threatened to cross the floor in protest over the proposed changes said he was relieved by Mr Abbott’s announcement.
Mr Laundy, who describes his electorate as “the second most multiculturally diverse seat in Federal Parliament”, said his constitutions had raised numerous concerns with the changes.
Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2014/08/05/17/19/coalition-dumps-controversial-changes-to-race-discrimination-laws#6IF1WedCL3jWePzE.99%5D
Some MPs represent their constituents – others apparently are there for their constitutions!
A boost towards tackling pollution and climate change.
[
Beijing’s move to close coal-fired power plants and ban coal use is expected to be followed up in neighbouring provinces as the Chinese government attempts to reduce chronic air pollution across its major cities.]
http://www.afr.com/p/markets/market_wrap/more_chinese_provinces_to_follow_2BQUQ7tKXqQkvTvoIiQ6wK
However bad news for Australian miners?
I missed this a few weeks ago – the Chinese sending a message to Abbott and co.
[China simmers as Japan, Australia get close
PUBLISHED: 12 JUL 2014 02:47:00 | UPDATED: 12 JUL 2014 06:28:01
John Howard received top billing in China the same week Japan’s prime minister visited Australia, a message to Tony Abbott to make sure he paid attention to the nation’s most important economic partner.]
http://www.afr.com/p/national/china_simmers_as_japan_australia_CUltXwvIpHAlh1MYkWBI6K
do you think Brandis’ chances of remaining in cabinet have increased or decreased today?
[LONDON — British minister Sayeeda Warsi resigned from her position as a senior foreign office minister on Tuesday, saying she could no longer support the government’s policy on the conflict between Israel and Hamas.
“With deep regret I have this morning written to the Prime Minister (and) tendered my resignation. I can no longer support Govt policy on #Gaza,” Warsi said on her official Twitter feed.
Warsi, a baroness, was senior minister of state at Britain’s Foreign Office and minister for faith and communities. It was not immediately clear whether she was resigning from both roles.]
George Brandis will just have to appoint himself to the High Court.
One politician making a stand..
[Baroness Warsi quits as Foreign Office minister over Gaza
Foreign Office minister Baroness Warsi has resigned from the government, saying she can “no longer support” its policy on Gaza.]
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-politics-28656874
Mark Colvin @Colvinius 4m
Britain’s first female Muslim Cabinet minister resigns from Government over Gaza http://bit.ly/1kC8YkO via @robcrilly
Dee
Snap.
Ministers who threaten to cross the floor is nothing to be compared to resigning.
Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
Mark Colvin @Colvinius 5m
Britain’s first female Muslim Cabinet minister resigns from Government over Gaza http://bit.ly/1kC8YkO via @robcrilly
Will be interesting to see if those Australians fighting for Israel will get the same treatment as those who are suspected of being jihadis.
Will it be only those who are fighting Muslim causes that will be monitored?
Electoral changes in ACT for 2016 election:
[The ACT Legislative Assembly has unanimously passed legislation to expand from 17 to 25 members, triggering an overhaul of Canberra’s electoral boundaries.
The legislation also increases the number of ACT electorates from three to five.
ACT electoral commissioner Phil Green said work to redraw electoral boundaries would begin in October.
“We have a four-person redistribution committee making a suggested set of boundaries that people can comment on and then the final boundaries are determined by a six-person body,” he said.
Mr Green said Canberra residents would also have a say in naming the ACT’s new electorates, ahead of the election in 2016.
“What we’re very keen to hear when we call for public submissions is people’s suggestions as to what they think the boundaries names should be,” he said.
An independent review recommended an expansion of the Legislative Assembly last year.
A subsequent proposal by the ACT Government to expand the assembly to 25 members was supported by the Canberra Liberals.
It comes after the Federal Senate passed a bill in March 2013 to give the Assembly the power to have more MLAs, without needing approval from the Federal Government.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-08-05/act-legislative-assembly-expands/5649922
Poroti
Snap indeed!
My first thoughts were ‘good on her’ but I wonder if it’s better to remain on the inside and use your position and influence to affect change??
Dee – Warsi has a high profile – being female and muslim has not much to do with that. She’s just very competent.
If she starts talking freely she be a real handful for ‘Dave’.
[shellbell
Posted Tuesday, August 5, 2014 at 6:56 pm | PERMALINK
George Brandis will just have to appoint himself to the High Court.]
Chief Justice of the High Court I would expect. Let the other JJ cower before his massive intellect.
Brandis continues to demonstrate why he is the worst Minister.
Personally I think 18C should be repealed (I don’t think we need to criminalise offensive comments, the best disinfectant is sunshine) and we shouldn’t make our telcos pay hundreds of millions of dollars to store data for the government without a court order.
We are not a police state.
I should add that if Bolt is the only person who’s suffered as a result of 18C that it must have a lot going for it, even if I disagree with in on principle.
Apparently Abbott rang Bolt before making the announcement on 18C .
Australians fought on both sides in the Spanish Civil War, how would Abbott decide which ones to charge?
Puff i used to work for a telemarketing company. They had contracts selling shit (literally pieces of crap) with the profits going to the Flying Doctors and some other charity (deserving obviously, but still…)
The whole thing was a scam. The marketing co. sold shit er stuff like tacky pens, coasters and other assorted pointless rubbish. A percentage of the profits went to the charity, after they took out costs like wages for workers, gear, lines, calls etc. I think it worked that the owner of the marketing company had another company that supplied the products. It would buy them cheap (say 10 or 20% of final price, possibly less) and sell them to the marketing company to use for about 80% of the final price.
So the marketing comapny would buy the crap for ridiculous prices and by the time the whole thing was done about 3 or 4% would end up going to the charity. The whole thing could have been done in a way that had the RFDS and whoever else we sold for getting over 75% of the sale price and still the company would have done ok. The owner mightn’t have been able to afford his Porsche 911 (do they still call them that?) but could have payed off a car and his Brighton (vic) mortgage.
We sold heaps of crap to pensioners – many of them very old, extremely lonely and possibly suffering various degenerative conditions. They were often targeted, and the rules of consent to sale were pretty sketchy. Part of the training involved being taught techniques to manipulate them into buying stuff, including lying about talking to them again.
I lasted a week there and less than a shift after I found out how the place worked (I wouldn’t have lasted much longer anyway, it was rank and I couldn’t bring myself to do it). That was in 1989 but it sounds like not much has changed.
CTar1
[If she starts talking freely she be a real handful for ‘Dave’.]
I hope you are right!
Elder’s latest
[Insofar as the Coalition was honest at all before the last election, it is fair to say that the Abbott government is pretty much doing what it indicated it would do – and what the IPA said it should do.
It just hasn’t done this very well. The Abbott government basically outsourced its capacity to generate ideas, and in doing so it has lost the capacity to advance and defend and modify ideas, and to keep to a basic set of beliefs through the tempests of politics and compromise without selling out]
http://andrewelder.blogspot.com.au/2014/08/reset.html
[I should add that if Bolt is the only person who’s suffered as a result of 18C that it must have a lot going for it]
As this helpful interactive feature on the SBS site illustrates, that’s not the case.
[(I don’t think we need to criminalise offensive comments, the best disinfectant is sunshine)]
The courts have consistently made it clear that they do not interpret ‘offensive’ in the common sense of the term but as requiring a significant impact.
The problem with the classical liberal ‘public sphere’ view of free speech are that
A) there is not an equality of access to it, so there is no guarantee that offensive comments by someone like Bolt can be effectively countered by alternative views; and
B) speech is not just a container for ideas but an action that has an impact, so that even if the offensive speech is effectively countered in the public domain any hurt done in the first place may remain.
Julie Bishop….late as usual…
“Julie Bishop says she is deeply concerned about the ‘unfolding tragedy in Gaza’ and has called on Israel to take steps to prevent civilian deaths”
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/aug/05/gaza-julie-bishop-says-shelling-of-un-schools-indefensible-and-shocking
ruawake @ 84 – last week a homeless couple in their 20s died in their car near Ballarat. I was in Melbourne, well Sunbury, last week and it was bloody cold.
[Chief Justice of the High Court I would expect. Let the other JJ cower before his massive intellect.]
Too far away. He will have to start puisne.
AFAIAC the “good faith” defence is a good safeguard. If you can’t meet that test then it is pretty borderline to say your speech should be protected. (Although I hasten to add that I would want to see the test judicially interpreted so that it was not just middle-class forms of speech that were found to be in good faith)
William
I sit corrected.
Re Team Abbott/Australia/America – is Abbott Gary and Murdoch Spottswoode?
Does George Brandis remind anyone else of Dogbert in the ‘Dilbert’ comic strip: http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogbert
Much weeping, gnashing of teeth, blood-oath-never-to-vote-Liberal-agains, and renting of garments going on at Bolt’s blog right now.
What get’s me is the constant myth that “With Tony Abbott, you always know where you stand.”
18C has swept the draconian terrorism laws off the front page and off the news bulletins. This is the biggest back-down since Moses took the ferry.
The gutless Abbott, who swore to Bolt on the day he lost his court case, that he’d repeal 18C, has let down his biggest fanboy and all his fanboiz.
It’s gutless betrayal, and Abbott even bragged that it was his decision alone. In his desperation to be seen as a leader, he dobbed himself in as a political wimp and traitor to those who trusted him.
Oh well, poor Bolt will have to consider his position. He’s been done over by Abbott, just like Bernie Banton, the Chinese PRemier, Peter Reith, SBY, Malcolm Turnbull and the world’s most resilient bouncing beach dummy, Joe Hockey… not to mention the Australian people who swallowed the Abbott blarney, hook, line and sinker.
Next up all the luvvies who thought they were going to get a free ride with Abbott’s insane PPL scheme. Then the Mums and Dads who believed in the Education “Unity Ticket”. The list of Abbott victims goes on and on.
The only thing he said that turned out to be true was “No surprises”. To those who sussed him, there haven’t been any.
To the mugs who believed him, hard cheese, guys and gals.
Don’t worry Bolt will get over it.