Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor

An uneventful weekly reading on voting intention from Essential Research, aside from a weak result for Palmer United, livened up a little by poor personal ratings for Joe Hockey.

The only federal poll for the week is the regular fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research, and it’s none too eventful: two-party preferred is steady at 51-49 after successive one-point shifts to the Coalition over the previous two weeks, from primary votes of 41% for the Coalition (steady), 39% for Labor (up one), 9% for the Greens (steady) and 4% for Palmer United (down one to its lowest level since April). Further questions:

• Joe Hockey’s net approval rating has plunged since the question was last posed in November, now at 35% approval (down 10%) and 44% disapproval (up 16%). He is nonetheless given a higher rating on trust to handle the economy in comparison with Chris Bowen, at 34% to 23%.

• The government’s plan to require 40 job applications a month from the unemployed has 44% approval and 48% disapproval, which is a poor result as these things go. As if to illustrate that point, 68% are in favour of the unemployed doing up to 25 hours community service a week, with 25% opposed.

• Most respondents would prefer that Federal Police sent to the MH17 crash site be armed, with 64-25 in favour. An unarmed option draws a slightly lower net approval of 51-38.

• Relationships with other countries are deemed to be equally excellent in the case of the United States, New Zealand and the United Kingdom, less good but still strong for Japan, China and India, mediocre with Indonesia, and very poor indeed with Russia.

After a fallow period, I’m resuming my practice of appending these posts with preselection news. The first glimmers of movement have appeared for a federal election still two years away:

Brad Norington of The Australian reports talk of Barry O’Farrell succeeding Philip Ruddock in his blue-ribbon northern Sydney of Berowra. In a recent interview with the Seven Network, O’Farrell responded to a question about federal political aspirations by saying it was “an option”.

• A nominee for the fraught Liberal state preselection for the Sydney seat of Riverstone, Yvonne Keane, is said by Sean Nicholls of the Sydney Morning Herald to be motivated by a desire to “gain some exposure before a possible tilt at Greenway at the 2016 election”. Greenway has twice stayed in Labor hands at the past two elections thanks in large part to the disastrous candidacy of Jaymes Diaz, whose family dynasty is a principal player in the Riverstone preselection.

Finally, a couple of links worth noting:

• The latest venture of the Poll Bludger’s benefactors at Private Media, The Mandarin, has two items of interest to election watchers – a report on the Australian Electoral Commission’s lack of enthusiasm for a substantial move to electronic voting, and one on the rights of public servants who stand for election.

• Shout out to two very good psephology blogs that took a long time to come to my notice. One is Phantom Trend by Jamie Hall, who “designed quant models for the RBA” and brings to the polling aggregation game superior statistical chops to my own. The other is Infographinomicon by “PsephologyKid”, who is presently on hiatus but has done some fine work on everything from the Tasmanian Legislative Council to the Eurovision song contest.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

881 comments on “Essential Research: 51-49 to Labor”

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  1. “@dannolan: oh hey, are you a journalist, do you protect your sources? Sorry, with data retention the cops can just bypass your ethics. Yay!”

  2. Dumped during the Abbott-Brandis presser.

    [Appointment of Providers for the Medibank Private Initial Public Offering
    The Government continues to progress the sale of Medibank Private in an orderly and methodical fashion with the appointment today of various selling services providers.

    Following a competitive tender process, the appointments are:
    Co-Lead Managers to the initial public offering:

    Bell Potter Securities Limited;
    Commonwealth Bank of Australia;
    Morgans Financial Limited; and
    UBS Wealth Management Australia Limited.
    Co-Managers to market Medibank Private shares to retail investors throughout Australia: Evans and Partners Pty Ltd; and Ord Minnett Limited.

    The Department of Finance has also appointed Belgiovane Williams Mackay Melbourne to develop the advertising campaign for the share offer.
    These providers will now commence the extensive preparations required to undertake a fully marketed initial public offering in the 2014-15 financial year, subject to market ]

  3. [ So, another $600mn of spending on ‘security’… more hardship going to be lumbered on lower income earners to fund that ? ]

    Seems only fair, given that the lower income earners are likely to be the biggest threat to Abbott’s security.

  4. 18C = Another back flip after dumb dumb realizing that he is really really dumb.
    Obviously dumb dumb doesn’t believe the Galaxy / Essential Polling and prefers to believe Newspoll….lol…lol.

  5. Actually it does sorta make sense – leaving RDA 18C in place gives less opportunity for extremists to cause more extremism. Allowing racial minorities to be abused quite likely an incentive to extremism.

  6. “@drearyclocks: On the upside you won’t have to report your 40 job applications a month. They can just check your metadata.

    Then cut your payments.”

  7. [18C = Another back flip ]

    But but but he said at the presser the decision to ditch the changes was a sign of leadership on his part.

  8. Abbott announces to the IPA that 18c will be changed, he tasks Brandis DH to do it for him, Abbott smells the flak and burns Brandis DH.

    Will lying simian be George’s next outburst.

  9. [Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP 1m
    It’s great we now have a government that does what it says and says what it does…last night on #PVOnewshour the AG stood by 18C changes…]

  10. Dumping the RDA amendments is making a virtue out of necessity, since it seems most unlikely that they would have made it through the Senate. But it shows again just what a klutz we have for an Attorney-General: Senator Brandeis did more to sink his own legislation than just about any Minister I can remember.

    And he must be regretting more than ever appointing Mr Wilson to the HRC. Apart from being a supporter of the repeal of 18C, what on earth is he supposed to be good for?

  11. [Tim Beshara ‏@Tim_Beshara 3m
    The Green Army will be able to do some shit-hot counterterrorism and surveillance work. #teamAustralia]

  12. Abbott is correct to describe his backflip on s.18C as as sign of leadership. It is undoubtedly the correct decision and would have taken courage in the face of both bigot-loving Brandis and the racist Bolt. It has to be said that taking nearly 12 months after the election to commit to the backflip is a sign of very poor leadership, but it is leadership all the same.

  13. Wasnt it only yesterday that Brandis was crowing about that Fairfax decision to apologise about that cartoon as evidence why 18c wasn’t needed. What a humiliation for the AG – overruled by Abbott and told to dump it.

  14. … Althought this one’s not bad…

    [Disgraceful. What does it take to get legislation through or repealed?]

    Er… a vote in our democratically elected Parliament would be nice.

  15. This is what Abbott is copying.

    [We know that David Clapson was actively searching for work when he died because a pile of CVs he had just printed out was found a few metres from his body. The last time he spoke to his sister, a few days before he died, he told her he was waiting to hear back about an application he had made to the supermarket chain Lidl.

    But officials at the Jobcentre believed he was not taking his search for work seriously enough, and early last July, they sanctioned him – cutting off his benefit payments entirely, as a punishment for his failure to attend two appointments.

    Clapson, 59, who had diabetes, died in his flat in Stevenage on 20 July 2013, from diabetic ketoacidosis (caused by an acute lack of insulin). When Gill Thompson, his younger sister, discovered his body, she found his electricity had been cut off (meaning that the fridge where he kept his insulin was no longer working). There was very little left to eat in the flat – six tea bags, an out-of-date tin of sardines and a can of tomato soup. His pay-as-you-go mobile phone had just 5p credit left on it and he had only £3.44 in his bank account. The autopsy notes reveal that his stomach was empty.]

  16. This was nice, too…

    [Friends in high places don’t get you everything you want, Andrew.

    LOL of Melbourne (Reply) ]

  17. K17 @ previous comment

    [Raaraa – If that is true, why does Itunes have ripping software and provides track indexes, covers, etc etc.]

    It’s one of those grey areas thing which nobody has bothered to follow up on because it has the backing of a big company: Apple.

    It’s also that since in general, you are expected to purchase the music legally before you rip them up and put it on your iPhone, and I believe the T&C of using the software includes the agreement that you are using legally bought content.

    I could be wrong, but I will try to find out that discussion or any articles related to this tonight.

  18. Great comment below this article

    [I appreciate your effort to try to salvage the Abbott Government from electoral Armageddon, but it’s just too late. There is no way back for this Government, I am afraid. They were elected on the back of one of the most disgusting campaigns of lies and propaganda ever witnessed in this country, in order to exact a Neoliberal Revolution. Abbott’s Populism was only the Trojan Horse carrying Neoliberalism well hidden inside. But the Neoliberal Revolution has been decisively rejected by the People of Australia. Now the Coalition is just left with Abbott’s empty Populist Trojan Horse that is far from satisfactory even to his Masters and Financiers….. So, I am afraid, it is not a “change of direction” that is needed for Abbott & Gang, what we need is a Change of Government!!]

  19. CTar1

    What a cheerful note the article ends with.

    [….they have admitted losing villages close to the dam.

    If the Islamists can capture the entire facility, they would technically have the ability to close off the waters from Baghdad – or flood the capital city,]

  20. So it appears to me that Abbott in self saving mode is ticking off both Bolt and the IPA.

    Self survival seems to be the strategy.

    If only it was that easy!

  21. Paul@59

    Will dumb dumb arrest the Australian woman interviewed by Channel 7 who is fighting with the Israeli army?

    See, it’s only bad when browns go overseas to fight in causes.

  22. Team Australia? 😆

    Reminds me of:Team America: World Police is an American satirical action comedy film.

    Honestly you couldn’t make this shit up…oh wait….

  23. More madness in Qld.

    [Spencer Howson ‏@SpencerHowson 10m
    Unbelieveable. Ed Qld has told Marburg SS it’s not allowed to fundraise via a 3rd party (crowdfunding site). More on 612 Breaky tomorrow.]

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