Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift to the Coalition in this week’s Essential Research, which also finds the recent Senate turmoil has changed very few minds about the utility of minor parties holding the balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research result ticks back a point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, who now trail by 52-48, from primary votes of 39% for both the Coalition and Labor (respectively up one and down one), with the Greens and Palmer United steady on 9% and 6%. Other findings:

• Perceptions of the Senate balance of power have not changed since last year, with 32% thinking it best when the government has a majority (up one), 25% favouring independents and minor parties holding the balance of power (up one), 8% preferring the opposition holding the balance of power (down two), 7% saying it doesn’t matter, and 28% saying they don’t know.

• Perceptions of the present situation are likewise unchanged on immediately after the election, with 36% thinking the micro-parties good for democracy (steady), 28% bad (up two) and 15% opting for makes no difference (down two).

• Twenty-seven per cent would sooner the Greens hold the balance of power versus 22% for Palmer United, with 34% saying no difference.

Other inquiries relate to respondents’ retirement and superannuation arrangements. Another polling nugget to emerge yesterday was a ReachTEL result commissioned by the Electrical Trades Union showing Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls facing a 13% swing in his affluent Brisbane seat of Clayfield, but nonetheless leading 57-43 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): The Seven Network this evening brings us a ReachTEL automated phone poll of national voting intention, as it does one a month or so, conducted to gauge reaction to Tony Abbott’s handling of the MH17 disaster. The poll shows a slight tick to the Coalition, which now trails 52-48 from primary votes of 36% for the Liberals, apparently not including the Coalition (up one); 37% for Labor (down one); 10% for the Greens (steady); and 8% for Palmer United (up one). Abbott scores strong ratings for his handling of MH17, being rated very good or good by 51%, satisfactory by 26% and poor or very poor by 23%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

835 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Lambie has cut through the media molasses and is now established as “character” on the Australian political landscape. This is a fair achievement for a newbie that no one had heard of a couple of weeks ago.

    Zoomster has it right when she says the only mistake made to date was to apologise.

    Dreary criticism by the PB PC conglomerate is a hoot. None of them would vote for her in a fit. So, why should Lambie care about the opinions of a bunch of humourless thought police who’d never met her and would never vote for her regardless of her opinions on male dangly bits or anything else.

    Lambie should just carry on regardless. She’s the one with the political power.

  2. Morning all

    Our msm has been pathetic for years, but the reporting of the MH17 is a new low even for them.

    Now we have JBishop telling us the obvious. That the repatriation of any remains will take quite some time. Well I’ll be…..

  3. zoomster

    Agree with your observations. Dont see why Lambie had to apologise. She was talking about herself, not other women or men

  5. Yes, who could forget the chair sniffing, bra snapping, dry humping former WA Treasurer and former leader of the WA Liberals?

  6. This is the point that confirmed for me that Abbott is an opportunistic, self absorbed, unempathetic f wit

    [This afternoon Abbott overreached his statesmanlike pose by reducing a complex situation to a silly slogan (Operation Bring Them Home), brought on from reading too much Murdoch press (We Warn Mr Putin). Abbott will invite himself to family funerals and attempt to milk the tragedy for more than it could possibly bear. His overreach is all too human, and typical of both the man himself and the echo chamber surrounding him.]

  7. Regarding Jackie Lambie, I think yes, there is a double standard. But it is a stupid standard. I see no harm in what she said. And it was not harassment unless the comments were unwelcome and she still persisted.

  11. For those interested in the melbourne underbelly saga.

    I have previously expressed some thoughts in this saga, and nothing to date has changed my view that soemthing stinks

    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/detective-gave-carl-williams-address-of-murdered-couple-inquest-told-20140722-zvt3v.html

    Also, i am sceptical about these findings as well

    [MISSING jail boss David Prideaux had copies of statements made by gangland serial killer Carl Williams and his father, George, including sensational allegations of police involvement in corruption and murder, when he disappeared in Victoria’s high country during a hunting trip in June 2011.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/state-politics/gangland-info-with-vanished-jail-chief-david-prideaux/story-e6frgczx-1226588021061

    [The disappearance of former Barwon Prison boss David Prideaux in Victoria’s Alpine National Park in June 2011 was not suspicious, the state coroner has found.

    Mr Prideaux, 50, from Sunbury, was last seen by his brother-in-law in the Buckland Spur while deer hunting.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-15/barwon-prison-boss-david-prideaux-disappearance-not-suspicious/5597378

  14. victoria

    I don’t know much about deer hunting, but would it be usual to go off alone? The gun happy blokes in my area seem to hunt in pairs.

  15. victoria

    It’s hard to grasp how BIG the forests are up here.

    When people talk about ‘local knowledge’ they’re talking about knowing the tracks. If you wander off the tracks for even a few metres, you can get lost forever very easily.

    I still remember the shock I felt when we drove about a kilometre up one of the tracks behind our house, and saw how far the pine plantations extended….and the forest along the Great Dividing Range is even bigger.

    Lost people get found because they stick to the tracks.

    (Case in point: an acquaitance of mine suicided by jumping off a cliff face at Mt Buffalo. Mt Buffalo National Park is one of the less forested of the parks, with a vast array of walking tracks, and it was pretty clear from the evidence where he’d jumped. It still took over a year for his body to be found).

  16. lizzie

    The coronial inquest currently underway is into the murders of the Hodson couple.

    The case against the policeman originally charged with their murder, collapsed after Carl Williams was murdered in jail. Williams was a key witness that would establish that the policeman ordered the murders of the Hodsons because they were going to disclose that he was a crooked cop up to his neck in underworld dealings. Williams was murdered after this disclose was made in the Herald Sun

    [TAXPAYERS paid the private school fees for the daughter of multiple murderer, drug dealer and underworld figure Carl Williams.

    The $8000 payment was made by Victoria Police command for Williams’ child to attend a top private school.]

    http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/victoria/we-pay-for-carls-daughter-to-attend-top-private-college/story-e6frf7kx-1225855226230

    Williams was supposed to be a protected prisoner in jail, but yet he was killed.

    Just so happens that the person in charge of the prison at the time, goes missing never to be found again.

  18. Good Morning

    On Senator Lambie I agree with zoomster and GG.

    On MH17 Abbott reached peak relevance with the UN motion. Something only possible thanks to the efforts of Labor.

    All the publicity is downhill from that and military titles will not change that fact.

    Interesting points made by Mr Biden in this email

    [Hey, everyone —

    During his State of the Union address, the President asked me to lead an across-the-board review of our nation’s job-training programs.

    It’s a top priority for the President, and it is absolutely critical to our economy’s success.

    So earlier today, I put forward a roadmap for how the United States can keep and maintain the highest-skilled workforce in the world.

    I’ve met with business leaders, community college presidents, governors and mayors, and most importantly, hard-working Americans who were hit hard by the Great Recession, but who are doing everything they can to learn new skills to find a decent, good-paying middle-class job.

    And there was a clear consensus: We must rethink how we train today’s workers so that our programs are job-driven, teaching real skills that employers need.

    We’ve heard from businesses that many jobs in today’s brightest sectors go unfilled because there simply aren’t enough people with the skills to do them. That’s not good for businesses, it’s not good for workers, and it’s not good for this country.

    Some of our country’s businesses, community colleges, and state and local training programs — often supported with federal dollars — have found ways to successfully prepare Americans for these jobs. We need to make sure our entire system is learning from them.

    Find out why training programs matter for middle-class Americans — and which ones around the country are working best.

    We’re taking steps to improve that training, directing federal agencies to make current programs that serve more than 21 million Americans smarter, and holding training programs that use public funds accountable for making a difference.

    This isn’t the only step we’re taking to make sure Americans have the skills they need, either. Today, I joined President Obama as he signed the Workforce Innovation and Opportunity Act into law. It connects more ready-to-work Americans with ready-to-be-filled jobs. And it builds on bipartisan efforts in Congress to improve business engagement and accountability. While there’s still more to do, it’s another important step in getting Americans working.

    Thanks,

    Vice President Joe Biden]

  19. victoria

    Not disagreeing with that – and I know the former cop involved (he runs a local service station and his mother was a local mayor when I was on council…)

  21. victoria

    yep.

    I also had a lot to do at one stage with another notorious former cop, Dennis Tanner.

    Another policeman said to me wtte of “Ah, he was a great cop. Shouldn’t have done what he did, but he was a great cop. Don’t worry about him, you’re safe — just as long as you don’t marry into his family.”

    The casual acceptance that a ‘great cop’ might also be a murderer was worrying, to say the least…

  22. zoomster

    I just found the answer. I had no idea!!

    [As the case against Paul Dale collapses, it seems luck has been on the side of the disgraced former drug squad detective. Andrew Rule, Chris Johnston and Nick McKenzie report.
    PAUL Noel Dale already owns one of the best houses and biggest service stations in north-east Victoria, but he should buy a Tattslotto ticket. The collapse of the murder case against him is at least his third extraordinary stroke of luck in seven years.
    The imminent withdrawal of the charges against the disgraced former drug squad detective (and against a notorious unnamed hitman) is the latest episode of a bleak drama that began as a farcical attempt to steal a drug dealer’s $1.3 million hoard.]

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/walking-free-with-a-bit-of-luck-on-his-side-20100528-wlkb.html#ixzz38F3KGJIA

  23. Yesterday we had the local West Australian gushing over what a man Abbott is, leading the nation fearlessly against that evil man Putin.

    I think: A push by one conservative paper to convince us that “commeth the hour, commeth the man”?

    Today, it gets worse with huge banner head “Woman of Steel” and a picture – well known to us – of a dead-eyed Julie Bishop “talking the talk” as the West puts it.

    In a soppy by line from Andrew Probyn – I always thought he was a bit clear eyed – he tells us of how JB reduced the Russian ambassador to the UN to “tears” in her tale of the impact of the MAS crash on one Perth family.

    Now there are a couple or three ways to look at the West’s output in the last day or two. Firstly, they actually believe we have gems in Abbott and his FM. Or, the opportunity to boost Abbott over this exercise is just too good to miss. Or, cynically, if Abbott should stumble there is the “Woman of Steel” ready, willing? and able? to take over the leadership of the Liberals.

    All of this would be just politics if it were not for the fact that no so long ago Abbott, Bishop and others in the Liberals heaped buckets of scorn on Labor’s goal to give Oz a seat on the Security Council.

    It is just amazing what 10 months or so in office and a bit of world strutting can do to enhance the UN in the eyes of the conservatives.

    Have to admit it, the conservatives do hypocrisy just that much better than anyone else.

  25. The formal result of the Indonesian presidential election:

    [The General Elections Commission (KPU) announced the official final vote tally and named Joko “Jokowi” Widodo president-elect with a total vote of 70,997,833, or 53.15 percent, on Tuesday evening.

    “The KPU declares candidate pair Joko Widodo-Jusuf Kalla as president-elect and vice president-elect,” KPU chairman Husni Kamil Malik said at an official announcement broadcasted live on TV from the KPU headquarters in Central Jakarta on Tuesday evening.

    During the announcement, KPU chairman Husni Kamil Malik said rival candidate Prabowo Subianto had garnered 62,576,444 votes, or 46.85 percent.

    Elections Supervisory Agency (Bawaslu) chairman Muhammad also confirmed that the final vote tally result was equal with the agency’s data.

    Husni said all KPU commissioners and candidate witnesses had signed the formal final result document. (gda/dic)]

    http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/07/22/jokowi-named-president-elect.html

    The AEC has a relatively easy job compared with its Indonesian counterpart. Total votes 133.6 million with about 70% turnout under voluntary voting. Given the geographic size of Indonesia and the remoteness of many polling places, this is a remarkable feat for a country that was once governed by a military dictatorship.

  26. Tricot

    Peta Credlin has been quoted on ABC 24 saying Hockey is the “Heir Apparent”

    Of course no MSM calls about numbers being counted as there was ecery time something like this came out about Labor.

  28. The Buckland Spur (I’ve no idea why it’s got that name – the Buckland Valley is a long way north of it) is down nearer to Mansfield.

    I looked it up last summer because there was a fire there, and it’s about 70 k south of here.

  33. guytaur@376

    I would have thought Hockey is a bit tainted as a potential leader currently.

    It is interesting to speculate though…Would the Libs risk a female a leader given their treatment of PMJG?

    Many of the hard right might like Scott Morrison as a “tough guy”. However, it might well be he will have to have a spell in a soft Ministry where his true Christian (New Testament) credentials can shine through he current Old Testament treatment of AS.

    Meanwhile, one wonders what future there is for Turnbull. As he thought to quit once before, and he would not want to be leader of an opposition, I guess he might still have one more throw of the dice.

    It would be an irony if Bishop was looked at as a potential leader, being the only female of any note on the front bench and the only mildly competent one.

    I wonder, if she did become leader, whether those who attacked PMJG’s marital status and other matters pertaining to her looks and gender will hold their tongue.

    I wonder if Germaine Greer will seek to comment on the size of said JB’s backside or whether this or that piece of clothing is okay for her to wear?

  34. This was conversation hour yesterday with jon faine. Worthwhile listening

    [Jon Faine’s co-host is the former Liberal Member for McEwan, Fran Bailey.
    Their first guest is former ABC broadcaster Madonna King, who has just published Hockey: Not Your Average Joe. Joe Hockey’s first authorised biography (UQP).
    Then they are joined by the President of the Victorian Young Liberals, Simon Breheny. He works at the Institute of Public Affairs where he is the director of their Legal Rights Project, and the and editor of FreedomWatch.]

    http://mpegmedia.abc.net.au/local/melbourne/faineconversations/201407/r1306317_17925722.mp3

  37. Interesting that the Americans have come out with the most likely cause of the shoot down – that is, a lethal weapon in the hands of those with just enough knowledge to do a lot of damage.

    As most of the stuff by way of weaponry in this area is still likely to be old Soviet style – bit like old Lee Enfield rifles being used in the NW Frontier after the British left – it is no surprise it was used, particularly if the hooded types thought (and appeared to have said) they had brought down an Antanov belonging to the Ukranians.

    The talk about “crime” and “cover up” should be decoupled in my view.

    Our local political and media should perhaps not overdo the “crime” bit. Certainly a whole host of other words such as incompetence, lack of responsibility, lack of discipline, ideology, thuggish behaviour and naked power play could be used instead.

    As somebody here pointed out days ago, the actual launcher has probably long gone back behind the Russian border, the operatives are either being secretly treated as heroes or shot while bits of the plane which might give clues have been shifted and shredded.

  38. [BB to be fair to J Bishop, she was thanked for her role by the Dutch FM during the debate on the UN resolution re MH17]

    I think the point is that when they just do their job it’s so amazing to the Press Gallery that they write it up as heroic, epochal, “Prime Ministerial” etc.

  39. I don’t see why the Americans would go for a Kremlin conspiracy. Their troops are so skilled at “friendly fire” that you’d think they’d easily accept a stuffup.

  40. Just saw a pan across the people at the “book of condolences” ceremony. Apart from Bronnie it stuck out like the proverbial it was wall to wall “old white guys”

  41. it is now being reported on ABC radio that the US have made a cautious assessment of the downing of the plane that no direct involvement by Russia. Does this mean that Abbott will have to lay off Putin?

  43. Oh dear. If no direct blame lies with Russia, then how does Abbott walk away from his muscular blustering of the past few days? He was pretty OTT at times.

  50. victoria

    Easy. This comment from your link had a theme that was popular in the comments section. Abbott will use wink wink nudge nudge insinuations of the same.

    [Because they had 3 days to destroy any evidence]

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