ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor in Ashgrove

In the wake of the Stafford by-election fiasco, a ReachTEL poll finds Campbell Newman down but maybe not quite out as he girds himself for the contest in his neighbouring electorate of Ashgrove.

A ReachTEL automated phone poll conducted last night for the Seven Network, encompassing what for a state electorate poll is a pretty large sample of 805, finds Campbell Newman trailing 53-47 on two-party preferred in his Brisbane electorate of Ashgrove – a swing approaching 9% off the 2012 state election, but a one-point improvement for Newman on the last such poll conducted in March. The primary votes are 43.5% for Newman (51.8% at the election), 43.2% for an as yet unspecified Labor candidate (38.9% for defeated member Kate Jones in 2012), 7.8% for the Greens (9.2%) and a rather unimpressive 4.1% for Palmer United, which perhaps offers some insight on their reluctance to field a candidate at Saturday’s Stafford by-election. The ReachTEL poll also encompassed motivations for vote choice, preferred LNP leader (39.6% for Newman versus 25.8% for second-placed Lawrence Springborg), this week’s policy reversals, and whether the LNP deserves to be re-elected (52.1% no, 41.7% yes).

The impetus for this poll was of course the Stafford by-election, for which my paywalled post-match report for Crikey can be viewed here. We have also seen in the past few days a ReachTEL poll commissioned by the Electrical Trades Union showing Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls facing a 13% swing in his affluent Brisbane seat of Clayfield, but nonetheless leading 57-43 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE: And now the WorkCover Protection Coalition releases another ReachTEL result, this one statewide from 1177 respondents on Monday night, showing the LNP on 37.4%, Labor on 34.6%, the Greens on 6.1%, the Palmer United Party on 13.4% and Katter’s Australian Party on 3.4%. The order of parties just listed is reflected in results to a second question on how committed respondents are to their vote choice, i.e. LNP voters most committed and Palmer United voters least committed. Other results that can be seen through the link relate to workers compensation, Crime and Corruption Commission appointments, bikie laws and whether the removal of Campbell Newman would influence likelihood to vote LNP (31.5% more likely, 24.2% less, 44.3% unchanged).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

8 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Labor in Ashgrove”

  1. [I’m surprised that the LNP leads 47.7 to 34.8 on primary votes amongst 18-34 year-olds..]

    Yep none of the other data sets show this. Could be a typo?

  2. The immediate turd polishers reaction after the Stafford by election was that this is a normal correction…
    What’s a normal correction in Qld?
    After so many years of Labor a normal correction would be a move back to Labor.

  3. Correction
    The immediate turd polishers reaction after the Stafford by election was that this is a normal correction…
    What’s a normal correction in Qld?
    After so many years of Labor a normal correction would be a move back to a Labor Govt.

  4. There is a QLD State poll that was mentioned on Brisbane Nine News, a commissioned poll it seems. It was done by ReachTEL. Not on their site yet, but the WorkCover Protection Coalition have posted a PDF of the full results. Someone (William) will have to work out the TPP.
    Posted by WorkCover Protection Coalition on July 23, 2014

    A new statewide poll has shown that this week’s policy reversals by the Newman Government are not enough to bring back the voters who have deserted it.

    The polling, undertaken by the WorkCover Protection (WPC), shows the LNP primary vote has crashed to 37.4%, down from 49.7% at the last State election.]

  5. Copied from the Stafford Live thread

    Lefty e:
    [A friend of mine (also an ex-QLDer like me) reckon they could engineer a by-election after the general election.
    I tend to disagree somewhat: the Nats are still the larger membership force, and I reckon theyll lt Newman walk into history.]

    [If the LNP win, Newman loses and the ex-Nats hold the whip hand then surely it will be Premier Springborg: Seeney is clearly unacceptable and there is, I think, no one else.
    I do indeed say not to count out an engineered by-election in the interests of “what people want”. I think a post-election scenario will be a different situation. Newman will certainly stand in Ashgrove – to do else would be weak – but may still again get the numbers from outside the party room.
    However I increasingly think that the next election will lead to a hung parliament leading to minority ALP government. Labor will revert to the mean – and then some – in Brisbane while PUP will take seats from the LNP in the hinterland and regions.]

    Me again

    [Other than Borg and Seeney, the other old Nats in Cabinet would seem to be Jack Dempsey, John McVeigh, Andrew Powell, Andrew Cripps and Steven Dickson. If I’ve missed any, or anyone thinks that one of these latter – or someone currently outside Cabinet – is a real shot then I’d be interested to hear.]

    Any thoughts from Qlders on the latter post?

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