Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift to the Coalition in this week’s Essential Research, which also finds the recent Senate turmoil has changed very few minds about the utility of minor parties holding the balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research result ticks back a point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, who now trail by 52-48, from primary votes of 39% for both the Coalition and Labor (respectively up one and down one), with the Greens and Palmer United steady on 9% and 6%. Other findings:

• Perceptions of the Senate balance of power have not changed since last year, with 32% thinking it best when the government has a majority (up one), 25% favouring independents and minor parties holding the balance of power (up one), 8% preferring the opposition holding the balance of power (down two), 7% saying it doesn’t matter, and 28% saying they don’t know.

• Perceptions of the present situation are likewise unchanged on immediately after the election, with 36% thinking the micro-parties good for democracy (steady), 28% bad (up two) and 15% opting for makes no difference (down two).

• Twenty-seven per cent would sooner the Greens hold the balance of power versus 22% for Palmer United, with 34% saying no difference.

Other inquiries relate to respondents’ retirement and superannuation arrangements. Another polling nugget to emerge yesterday was a ReachTEL result commissioned by the Electrical Trades Union showing Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls facing a 13% swing in his affluent Brisbane seat of Clayfield, but nonetheless leading 57-43 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): The Seven Network this evening brings us a ReachTEL automated phone poll of national voting intention, as it does one a month or so, conducted to gauge reaction to Tony Abbott’s handling of the MH17 disaster. The poll shows a slight tick to the Coalition, which now trails 52-48 from primary votes of 36% for the Liberals, apparently not including the Coalition (up one); 37% for Labor (down one); 10% for the Greens (steady); and 8% for Palmer United (up one). Abbott scores strong ratings for his handling of MH17, being rated very good or good by 51%, satisfactory by 26% and poor or very poor by 23%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

835 thoughts on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Steady as she goes by the look of it.

    I wonder the impact of this week of solid “statesmanship” on the respective leadership polling for PMTA?

    Surely, with the amount of exposure, there will be some bounce for TA if not for the LNP?

  4. Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls facing a 13% swing in his affluent Brisbane seat of Clayfield, but nonetheless leading 57-43 on two-party preferred

    Considering he received just under 56% TPP in 2012 when Labor won the lection, I don’t think that 57 will provide much comfort to the LNP.

  8. Good article by Tristan Edis

    …the government could not support the CEFC providing what he believed was “concessional” finance to projects that he termed “too risky for the private sector”.

    The private sector’s perception of risk is because they have limited experience with renewables. The CEFC brings this to the table, which is why the big banks and financiers are happy to invest.

    The CEFC isn’t crowding out private investors; they don’t have the expertise to assess the proposals themselves, so the CEFC facilitates their investment in rewnewables by providing and applying the required knowledge. Not everything is a competition, a contest or a conflict, even in the capital markets.

    The CEFC embodies really good public policy, IMHO, which is probably why the LNP don’t like it.

  9. Come on down all the resident climate experts who claim global warming “stopped” years ago.

    Earth experiences hottest June on record

    Last month was the hottest June since record-keeping began in 1880, according to a monthly report by US government climate scientists.

    That meant June was a total of 1.30F (0.72C) warmer than the 20th century average for the month, surpassing the last record high temperature for June set in 2010, said NOAA

    The findings are part of an ongoing trend of rising global temperatures.

    June has been warmer than the 20th century average for 38 years in a row, the agency said.

    Its report last month also found that May was a record-setter, also topping the previous high set in 2010.

    http://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/news/article.cfm?c_id=2&objectid=11297308

  10. psyclaw @ 840

    Just watched the MH17 Condolence Book signings at Parliament House.

    I didn’t see anyone from the opposition parties. Are they ‘airbrushing’ everyone except the government out of history?

  11. It’s appalling to see Abbott parading around milking this tragedy for all he can get. He is totally insincere.

    But Murdoch & co will do their best to drag it out and promote their little man for as long as they can.

    The whole facade of sadness and mourning by Abbott disgusts and depresses me.

  12. BILL Shorten is backing Australia’s alliance with the United States as an “unwavering” partnership as he cites the downing of Flight MH17 as another example of the global threats that challenge both nations.

    In a speech to US officials and executives, the Opposition Leader calls the downing of the Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777 a “new global tragedy” and draws a parallel with the terror strikes in the US in 2001.

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/mh17/bill-shorten-says-mh17-an-example-of-global-threat-challenging-australia-us/story-fno88it0-1226997082269

  13. I must say I don’t really mind Abbott being out there – its what pollies do, and I hardly disagree with him on making the crime scene workable.

    What I object to is the News Ltd talking up their dud leader with North Korean style rubbish on their front pages.

  14. lefty e
    Posted Tuesday, July 22, 2014 at 3:22 pm | Permalink

    I must say I don’t really mind Abbott being out there – its what pollies do, and I hardly disagree with him on making the crime scene workable.

    What I object to is the News Ltd talking up their dud leader with North Korean style rubbish on their front pages.

    If it was Julia Gillard they’d be saying she was too wooden or something like they did during the Queensland floods.

  16. Ah yes, The Herald Sun saying the Russian separatists violating the laws of physics by using a “70kg missile”. Albert Einstein must be rolling in his grave.

  17. Did Abbott really say he wanted to send troops to secure the crash site as reported on ABC Radio? Is he mad. – Sorry don’t answer that.

  18. I think Abbott is doing much the same as Shorten would under the circumstances. Some people are determined to hate everything he does.

  19. I think Jacqui has got a good chance of blowing the Lying Friar off the front page

    Here’s how it went down. Lambie was appearing on Hobart’s Heart 107.3 breakfast show with Kim and Dave.
    The chat started predictably enough. Should Tom Jones sing at the AFL grand final? Should there be a weekday public holiday when Anzac Day falls on a Saturday?
    So far, so PG.
    Then Kim asked Lambie about her bikini line and it was full steam ahead on the Oversharing Express.
    “Right now the state I’m in, you’d want to bring out that whipper snipper first,” replied Lambie. “It’s a very scary area to talk about this morning.”
    It’s the stuff one could only dream of: an Apple Isle senator waxing lyrical about her map of Tasmania on live radio.
    Suddenly, the Prime Minister winking at a radio talkback call from a sex line worker seemed utterly banal.
    And then it got better.
    Lambie – a mother-of-two who says she has been single for 11 years – outlined what she’s looking for in a man.
    “They must have heaps of cash and they’ve got to have a package between their legs,” she said.
    “They don’t even need to speak.”

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/wellhung-palmer-united-party-senator-jacqui-lambie-boards-the-oversharing-express-on-radio-station-heart-1073-20140722-3ccr2.html#ixzz38AlohR6D

  20. Another Royal Commission into child abuse. We’ve had two major enquiries in the last ten years in SA.

    PREMIER Jay Weatherill says the State Government will order a Royal Commission into the alleged sexual abuse of children at a government-run residential care facility, and a review of child protection protocols would likely prompt “radical changes”.

  23. The perpetrator of the abuse, which is invariably described as sickening, had been cleared by the police and had a psychological assessment to make sure they were a suitable carer. I’m not sure what else can be done. One thing the RC will look at is not allowing men to be carers.

  24. Diogs,

    It doesn’t matter either way. There are no votes in Foreign Affairs.

    The cost of the Medicare co-payment will trump.s “Abbott the Statesman” every time.

  25. I think Abbott is doing much the same as Shorten would under the circumstances. Some people are determined to hate everything he does.

    I don’t think so at all – the aggressive over the top bullying through the media is not something any other Australian leader would do. shorten would be more like Howard than anyone else I could think of (similar lack of personalities).

  26. It’s the stuff one could only dream of: an Apple Isle senator waxing lyrical about her map of Tasmania on live radio.

    More a nightmare than a dream, but anyway, how embarrassment. Seems every time Lambie opens her mouth in public it’s just to change feet!

  27. WWP,

    It’s often observed that Australian PMs seem to alternate between maddies and fixers.

    Hawke – fixer
    Keating -Maddie
    Howard -fixer
    Rudd -Maddie
    Gillard – fixer
    Abbott -Maddie
    Shorten – fixer

  28. GG

    You are welcome to Trigg.

    And I agree FA has minimal political significance. Response to a disaster is only temporary as well anyway.

    I remember Bligh was superb after the Qld floods and got a huge boost in the polls which completely evaporated when Qld returned to bread and butter issues.

  30. WWP

    Bill Shorten disagrees with you. Note in particular his reference to Abbott’s “measured approach”.

    I rise to support the words of the Prime Minister – and I thank him for the conversations that we have had this morning… And I appreciate that when I rang the Prime Minister this morning, he has been most forthcoming. I greatly appreciate it…

    I say this to the Prime Minister today – Labor understands the complexity and difficulty of the decisions you will face. We understand that as people are working through the pain and grief, there will be many understandable calls for all sorts of action.
    I say that Labor is prepared to support the Government, and co-operate with the Prime Minister and the Government on what is the right next step that is to be taken in this most bewildering and shocking of events.
    Whether or not that involves anything to do with the G20, we say to the Government – we will work with your measured approach.

  31. Diogenes @ 23

    One thing the RC will look at is not allowing men to be carers.

    Pretty soon the only involvement men will be allowed to have with children is the act of procreation, and even this might be via a syringe. 🙁

  33. Diog

    Your Shorten quote is from a few hours after we had learnt of the shooting down.

    Well before Abbott started slapping blame around like a mad plasterer.

  34. Bill Shorten disagrees with you. Note in particular his reference to Abbott’s “measured approach”.

    Clever juxtaposition of calm intelligent leadership in the national interest – ironically not something ever likely to be exhibited by Abbott.

  35. Diogs,

    Apparently, Paddy Dangerfield is on the way as well.

    I look forward to your commentary that he was never any good as a player.

  37. GG

    Interested in how your “maddie/fixer” typology would apply before Hawkie.

    Hard pressed to know how one would categorise 23 years of Ming. Perhaps he swung between one extreme and another?

    Gorton? McMahon? Holt?

  44. GG

    If Paddy leaves, he will become a chicken winger like your other ex champion. If Oasdy left it would be for Geelong, not a sheltered workshop for rejects like Daisy Thomas.

  46. Greensborough Growler

    Posted Tuesday, July 22, 2014 at 3:53 pm | Permalink

    Keating -Maddie
    Whitlam -Maddie

    ————————————————

    Disagree 100 % …… I give anything right now to have a Leader that had the vision of Gough … and the acumen of Keating

    ….. instead we have a bullyboy thug …with a heart of malice ….who walks like he just crapped his pants and face like his nose just got a whiff of it ….

  48. badcat

    Disagree 100 % …… I give anything right now to have a Leader that had the vision of Gough … and the acumen of Keating

    ….. instead we have a bullyboy thug …with a heart of malice ….who walks like he just crapped his pants and face like his nose just got a whiff of it ….]

    Spot on!!

  50. Slothy

    At the end of the Condolence Book ceremony, BishopB, the MC, invited “anyone else who wants to” to sign the book in the next couple of days.

    I think that in her view, “anyone else” would be a phrase of sufficient decorum with which “those on my left” might be referred to.

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