Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift to the Coalition in this week’s Essential Research, which also finds the recent Senate turmoil has changed very few minds about the utility of minor parties holding the balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research result ticks back a point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, who now trail by 52-48, from primary votes of 39% for both the Coalition and Labor (respectively up one and down one), with the Greens and Palmer United steady on 9% and 6%. Other findings:

• Perceptions of the Senate balance of power have not changed since last year, with 32% thinking it best when the government has a majority (up one), 25% favouring independents and minor parties holding the balance of power (up one), 8% preferring the opposition holding the balance of power (down two), 7% saying it doesn’t matter, and 28% saying they don’t know.

• Perceptions of the present situation are likewise unchanged on immediately after the election, with 36% thinking the micro-parties good for democracy (steady), 28% bad (up two) and 15% opting for makes no difference (down two).

• Twenty-seven per cent would sooner the Greens hold the balance of power versus 22% for Palmer United, with 34% saying no difference.

Other inquiries relate to respondents’ retirement and superannuation arrangements. Another polling nugget to emerge yesterday was a ReachTEL result commissioned by the Electrical Trades Union showing Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls facing a 13% swing in his affluent Brisbane seat of Clayfield, but nonetheless leading 57-43 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): The Seven Network this evening brings us a ReachTEL automated phone poll of national voting intention, as it does one a month or so, conducted to gauge reaction to Tony Abbott’s handling of the MH17 disaster. The poll shows a slight tick to the Coalition, which now trails 52-48 from primary votes of 36% for the Liberals, apparently not including the Coalition (up one); 37% for Labor (down one); 10% for the Greens (steady); and 8% for Palmer United (up one). Abbott scores strong ratings for his handling of MH17, being rated very good or good by 51%, satisfactory by 26% and poor or very poor by 23%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

835 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  2. [ Boerwar

    Posted Wednesday, July 23, 2014 at 5:13 pm | Permalink

    bc

    Echnidas get really upset about the one about being as useful as a spare prick at a wedding.
    ]

    ————————————————

    I’ll risk another sin bin sanction ….

    Whats the difference between an echidna and a meeting of the Liberal Party at Parliament House

    A. An echida has all the pricks on the outside …

  4. [495
    Socrates

    The 12 year old in this story, if accurately quoted, already sounds more articulate, intelligent and compassionate than our PM. In the context of other sports funding, she has a point too. Tony Abbott sent her an almost meaningless form letter in reply.

    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/12yearolds-pararoos-plea-nets-a-form-response-from-tony-abbott-20140723-zvw6m.html ]

    That letter is just insulting. 🙁

    [Claire, there should be a spot for you in Canberra in a few years time! ]

    She certainly has fire in her belly. 🙂

  5. This article seems to indicate that Prabowo isn’t challenging…

    [Over 130m Indonesians voted in the recent presidential election, and notwithstanding the losing candidate Prabowo Subianto’s continued refusal to concede, the world’s third largest democracy awoke today to a hopeful new future.

    The former army strongman has strategically rejected the results, including staging a dramatic walkout during the tallying of final votes ahead of the official announcement last night. Prabowo is proving to be a world-class sore loser; nonetheless, his lawyer last night announced he would not take his tantrum to the constitutional court.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/23/jokowis-victory-is-a-decisive-break-with-indonesias-old-order

  6. It seems utterly improbable to me that Abbott will get any lasting poll bounce over the rather slavish foot-rubbing he is getting in much of the media over MH17.

    Firstly, and most obviously, while every politician gets something out of looking like a leader at a time when large sections of the public are engaged with an issue, the attention span on any issue tends to be pretty short, and so even when someone is perceived to have done the right thing, after a few months, people start wondering what else they’ve done good lately.

    As others have pointed out, the QLD floods management of Anna Bligh, which was really far more impressive and complex than anything Abbott is likely to get a crack at gave her a tremendous temporary bounce but still saw her regime humiliated at the subsequent election. Rudd and his gang of four were perceived as having done an excellent job in handling the GFC and yet 14 months after the winter ball of 2009 where they had historically high approval, they just fell over the line and not even with the same leader.

    In the end, people who switch between the ALP and LNP are far more concerned about how the policies of the regime affect them personally. IF Abbott is perceived as a lying shill who is doing them over, then all his posturing and all the Shanahans and Fran Kellys in the world won’t save his regime.

    Indeed, even to get a temporary bounce of significant proportions the leader has to be able to show him or herself capable of playing to an already perceived strength, or else tie it in with a longer narrative in which the perceived weakness proves to be a strength and he or she is vindicated in the eyes of those who accept they have misunderstood. Ideally, the event ties in with a broader area of concern in which the nation is thought to have a vital interest.

    MH17 seems an unlikely candidate here. Abbott has traded on saying how insignificant a country Australia is. He opposed getting onto the UNSC and wants to do as little s possible on climate change because we don’t count. None of the key players in this are going to let him near anything of importance in this matter, and 3 months from now there will be something else to talk about.

    Rudd or Gillard would have got a far better bounce than Abbott because they had good international connections and had a stronger interest outside the region. Rudd would have been trotting out middle power diplomacy and Gillard would have had the Obama connection to trade on.

    As it stands, even Peter Brent is taking a swing at Abbott on this.

  9. My guess is that the HC is not convening an urgent hearing in about a week’s time because they”re going to give this govt a big tick and a pat on the head.

  11. [ Fran Barlow

    Posted Wednesday, July 23, 2014 at 5:22 pm | Permalink

    It seems utterly improbable to me that Abbott will get any lasting poll bounce over the rather slavish foot-rubbing he is getting in much of the media over MH17.
    ]

    Shanahan, Sheridan,Kelly, Bolt, Jones, Albrechson , Mitchell etc etc …… have all gone overboard about Come the conflict, Commeth THE MAN …..

    its DeJa Poo – we have heard all this shit before …

    The knuckledraggers lap this crap up like a drug between The Voice and Kitchen rules …..

  12. What is Angus Houston doing now? pretending to be the GG, while the GG pretends to be the FM and the FM does well er nothing, as usual.

  13. I was out and about when ABC radio tuned into Abbott’s presser earlier. He is milking this tragedy with all his might. Honestly quite sickening. Feel so bad for those who are struggling with the loss of loved ones having to hear from this buffoon every five minutes

  14. MH

    [For some reason the choice of words & sentence construction just baffles me. ]

    I had a quick read also.

    It’s another world.

  15. Well, well well. Its confirmed. Abbott ignores Cabinet but confers with Rupert Murdoch.

    [Tony Abbott gave Rupert Murdoch a “full rundown” on his planned paid parental leave scheme before announcing the policy in 2010, in a marked contrast with his decision not to consult the party room, a new book reveals.

    The then-opposition leader’s discussions with the News Corp boss are outlined in a book published on Wednesday about the treasurer, Joe Hockey, by the former News Corp columnist Madonna King.

    The release of the authorised biography came a day after the Productivity Commission issued a report that suggested some of the $5.5bn earmarked for the paid parental leave policy should be diverted to childcare to make a bigger impact on workforce participation.

    The plan to provide six months of paid parental leave at the full replacement wage is opposed by large parts of the Coalition party room and is yet to be legislated.

    In the book, King reveals Murdoch was consulted before Abbott announced the policy – including a levy on big business – on International Women’s Day in March 2010.

    “Big business rumbled but didn’t erupt at the scheme, but the party room was in uproar,” King writes.

    “The hardheads knew that it would open the Coalition up to an accusation of raising taxes even though the extra tax would only apply to big businesses. But, more importantly, neither the party room nor the businesses who would pay had been consulted.

    “Abbott, however, had conferred with one leading business figure, the media proprietor Rupert Murdoch, who had been in Australia the month before for his mother’s 101st birthday …]

  16. The IPA must be rubbing its hands over June… hottest global temps since records began…

    Those stupid bastards don’t get it that the kneebone is connected to the…

  17. [Tony Abbott gave Rupert Murdoch a “full rundown” on his planned paid parental leave scheme before announcing the policy in 2010, in a marked contrast with his decision not to consult the party room, a new book reveals.

    The then-opposition leader’s discussions with the News Corp boss are outlined in a book published on Wednesday about the treasurer, Joe Hockey, by the former News Corp columnist Madonna King.
    ]

    http://gu.com/p/4v6p9

  19. I do wonder if this sentiment on twitter is widespread.

    [Abbott has gone from leading national mourning to turning it into cheap political opportunism. Never ceased to be amazed. #MH17 #auspol]

  20. [According to JHewson, he reckons the PPL will never be implemented as it wont pass the senate]

    And hopefully then it will disappear back into the slime from whence it came. But then, I thought that would happen with the Abbott PPL scheme after the 2010 election – and it just hung around ….

  21. Thanks Guytaur,

    I think the writer at the Guardian wrote hers a little later so may be more up-to-date, or Prabowo is pulling a Clive and saying several contradictory things at once so noone knows what he will do

  24. guytaur

    Those Gaza – other cities spatial comparisons are not very sensible, IMHO. Those other cities have hinterlands, for example.

    Gaza is yet another in the rapidly growing list of humanity’s end-of-species hellholes, IMHO.

    It does not produce enough food for itself. It does not collect enough energy for itself. The local biodiversity has mostly long gone. Its aquifers must be severely depleted and suffering from salt-water intrustion. It does not grow its own wood. There are no minerals. Its sea, the Mediterranean, is a rapidly deteriorating basket case of hypoxic and anoxic regions that are joining hands.

    The really interesting thing, for me, looking at those maps – is that the Israeli side of the border is virtually wall-to-wall irrigation fields in what is no longer the Negev Desert.

    Apparently Israel desalinates around 50% of its domestic water use and Deblonay will tell you that it steals 100% of its water supply from everybody else which means they have more water than they actually know about.

  25. K17

    [My guess is that the HC is not convening an urgent hearing in about a week’s time because they”re going to give this govt a big tick and a pat on the head.]

    Patrick MUA was brought super quickly in HC which tossed Patrick’s appeal

  27. shellbell

    I had thought the situation was sort of bipolar: if in Australian territorial waters then the Parliament can enact laws but if in extra-territorial waters, the Exutive cannot behave as it wants and becomes subject to international law…?

    So… if in extra-territorial waters the asylum seekers become ‘rescued’ foreigners but, if in territorial waters they must be considered for refugee status.

    This looks a bit simplistic. Would appreciate your views.

  28. bbph

    John Hewson made the observation today on the Agenda program on sky channel. Have to say that Mr hewson is a sensible Liberal. A dying breed me thinks

  30. victoria @ 578

    [Have to say that Mr hewson is a sensible Liberal. A dying breed me thinks]

    Dying? About as extinct as the dodo, at least within the confines of the country’s parliaments.

    Unless there is a clear repudiation of the Abbott government at the next election it will likely move even further to the right, much further right.

  31. Abbott called PPL his signature policy. Can’t see him accepting a loss at the best of times. He’ll not give this one up easily.

  32. [Abbott called PPL his signature policy]

    As one usually has only one signature does this indicate that Tony Abbott has only one policy??

  34. [ victoria

    Posted Wednesday, July 23, 2014 at 5:45 pm | Permalink

    I was out and about when ABC radio tuned into Abbott’s presser earlier. He is milking this tragedy with all his might. Honestly quite sickening. Feel so bad for those who are struggling with the loss of loved ones having to hear from this buffoon every five minutes
    ]

    —————————————————-

    Shanahan, Sheridan,Kelly, Bolt, Jones, Albrechson , Mitchell etc etc …… have all gone overboard about Come the conflict, Commeth THE MAN …..

    The knuckledragger,limp dicks, cowed by their own deficiencies, love Abbott’s alpha-male machismo John Wayne swaggering bullshit, …..fueled by Ruperts headlines …all designed to make a defining moment in Australias fight against the terrorist ‘baddies’ destroying our idealistic existence.

    F**k those 150+ souls on the prison ship – bunch of illegals whining cause we wont let them share in TAs glory ….let them get their own hero …..

  36. poroti

    I’d be purple with fury if I were a Coalition MP and realised that it was only run past Murdoch. This is obviously the reason he won’t give it up, even when the Prod Comm say it’s not the best way. It has the imprimatur of Emperor Rupert, so he can’t.

  37. There is possibly still a chance that the Libs and Greens will cobble together some sort of compromise PPL policy – that would have the numbers to get through.

  40. bbs

    [Tony Abbott has only one policy??]
    Would not be surprised if it was the case. Four years of hi-vis vest “stunting” did not leave much time for actual policy development.

  42. [Unless there is a clear repudiation of the Abbott government at the next election it will likely move even further to the right, much further right.]

    More Cory Bernardi’s? Just what the country needs …..

  43. [Four years of hi-vis vest “stunting” did not leave much time for actual policy development.]

    I think policy development by the Libs in the last term of parliament is actually an oxymoron.

  45. Blackburnpseph

    [There is possibly still a chance that the Libs and Greens will cobble together some sort of compromise PPL policy – that would have the numbers to get through.]

    I hope not!

    I think the one in place is just fine!

  46. [Under Corey Bernardi, we wouldn’t have to put up with this smut about the s*x life of echidnas.]

    It is a good thing that Echidna’s are monotremes and not homotremes – because then Cory would think they were unnatural.

  47. So Treasury pulled their ancient wishlist out of their bottom drawer and that became Joe’s policies. Abbott consulted Murdoch. Greg Hunt forgot all his science lessons so that he could become “Environment” Minister. Morrison abandoned humane principles for the same reason. Pyne lives in a world of his own. Dutton still believes that the sick should be blamed for their own sickness. I can’t go on, it’s too awful to think we are “ruled” by this ignorant mob.

  48. Listening to the news, you’d be forgiven for thinking that Abbott foiled some dastardly plot by Foreigners to keep the bodies of the Australians….

  49. What? There are Dutch soldiers providing the honour guard…

    …where the bloody hell are the Australian troops threatened by Abbott?

  50. bbs

    [It is a good thing that Echidna’s are monotremes…]

    I am not so sure that you can ignore the solitary vice. Bernardi would, no doubt, follow the Bible on the sin of Onan.

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