Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

A slight shift to the Coalition in this week’s Essential Research, which also finds the recent Senate turmoil has changed very few minds about the utility of minor parties holding the balance of power.

This week’s Essential Research result ticks back a point to the Coalition on two-party preferred, who now trail by 52-48, from primary votes of 39% for both the Coalition and Labor (respectively up one and down one), with the Greens and Palmer United steady on 9% and 6%. Other findings:

• Perceptions of the Senate balance of power have not changed since last year, with 32% thinking it best when the government has a majority (up one), 25% favouring independents and minor parties holding the balance of power (up one), 8% preferring the opposition holding the balance of power (down two), 7% saying it doesn’t matter, and 28% saying they don’t know.

• Perceptions of the present situation are likewise unchanged on immediately after the election, with 36% thinking the micro-parties good for democracy (steady), 28% bad (up two) and 15% opting for makes no difference (down two).

• Twenty-seven per cent would sooner the Greens hold the balance of power versus 22% for Palmer United, with 34% saying no difference.

Other inquiries relate to respondents’ retirement and superannuation arrangements. Another polling nugget to emerge yesterday was a ReachTEL result commissioned by the Electrical Trades Union showing Queensland Treasurer Tim Nicholls facing a 13% swing in his affluent Brisbane seat of Clayfield, but nonetheless leading 57-43 on two-party preferred.

UPDATE (ReachTEL): The Seven Network this evening brings us a ReachTEL automated phone poll of national voting intention, as it does one a month or so, conducted to gauge reaction to Tony Abbott’s handling of the MH17 disaster. The poll shows a slight tick to the Coalition, which now trails 52-48 from primary votes of 36% for the Liberals, apparently not including the Coalition (up one); 37% for Labor (down one); 10% for the Greens (steady); and 8% for Palmer United (up one). Abbott scores strong ratings for his handling of MH17, being rated very good or good by 51%, satisfactory by 26% and poor or very poor by 23%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

835 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. [Windhover

    A woman who sexually objectifies men is non-conforming to a stereotyped image of a woman. The non-conformity is in this way liberating, freeing women from the bounds of the stereotype. It does not contribute to any violence by women against men I am aware of. If there are groups of rich men with big dicks who are huddled away in fear of marauding women I do not know why I have not heard of it. Dominic Strauss-Kahn would be a counterfactual.

    A man who sexually objectifies women is conforming to the male-dominating stereotyping of women that dehumanises women and contributes to a prevailing culture of violence against women.]

    I get it.

    As long as a man or a woman is not fully liberated they can say it because it is good. But when a man or a woman is liberated they are not allowed to say it because it is bad.

    So when a man or a woman is liberated they have to shut up.

    Sounds a bit like four legs good, two legs bad…

    In most cases comparing the use of ‘well-hung’ to ‘big breasts’ or ‘nice arse’ is not, as it were, comparing like with like.

    The elephant in the room here is friction between, as who might say, opposing surfaces.

    All things being equal, big c*cks may generate more friction than little c*cks and small c*nts may generate more friction than big c*nts.

    But it all depends.

    *not sure what the automatic settings are on this blog so..

  4. “@ABCNews24: Bill Clinton: Our common humanity matters a hell of a lot more than our interesting differences #AIDS2014”

  9. Tony Abbott has dispatched GG Sir PeterCosgrove to Holland to welcome back the remains of Australians from the Ukraine. With dignity of course, and no doubt camera crews in tow.

    Those saying the PM is overreaching and milking the disaster are too cynical IMHO

  11. I don’t have time to read back through the thread, but did anyone post a link to this story?

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-23/pm-supports-grandparents-campaign-for-mandatory-abuse-reports/5617446

    I think that, in combination with his assumption of the role of “mourner-in-chief” re MH17, I think we are seeing a new image for the PM being developed by his minders. It’s a form of “Emo Man” Version 2.0 (Version 1.0 being Brendan Nelson as LOTO).

    What with the Senate, and the adverse reaction to the Budget, and the High Court challenge to his border security policies, and a range of other problems that he’s struggling to address, Abbott is not really doing so well at establishing himself in the public mind as the guy in charge.

    So he’s trying to switch his stance to that of the leader who can articulate the feelings of the public on a range of issues in relation to which the Australian Government does not exercise all that much control: air disasters in other countries, the behaviour of Putin and now legislation re the reporting of child abuse: which has always been seen up to now as entirely a state government matter.

    I expect that pronouncements from Abbott about issues like one punch killings, bikie gangs and the like will not be too far away.

  13. sprocket

    Agree. He’s been much the same as Shorten would have been.

    This comment by Shorten could equally have come from Abbott.

    [“For an outside nation to have supplied these Ukrainian rebels with this weaponry of war and murder is a very, very reckless and stupid act,” he told reporters in Melbourne on Saturday.
    “It is in the interests of resolving what has happened that all of the great powers, including the Russian Federation, support what was said at the United Nations Security Council last night.”
    “If the Russian Federation will not co-operate to help resolve and get to the heart of what has happened here, I don’t think Australians would welcome them coming to the G20,” he said.]

  15. Diogenes

    Abbott was straight out of the blocks making inflammatory claims and accusations . I doubt Shorten , or anyone else that thinks before speaking, would do likewise.

  16. Predictably, Mumbles blog has drawn the ire of
    [
    I have never liked your articles and will refrain from reading them in future.

    Your article implies that our Prime Minister and Foreign Minister are disingenuous in their reactions to this tragic crime. Your article is purely political and has displayed all the hall marks of a “white-guilt”, apologist lefty.

    Wake up mate and have some pride in your country.
    ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/oz_media/

  17. Sorry, stuffed that post up.

    Was meant to say

    Predictably, Mumbles blog has drawn the ire of Liberal supporters and conservatives. I had a good laugh at this one.

    [

    I have never liked your articles and will refrain from reading them in future.

    Your article implies that our Prime Minister and Foreign Minister are disingenuous in their reactions to this tragic crime. Your article is purely political and has displayed all the hall marks of a “white-guilt”, apologist lefty.

    Wake up mate and have some pride in your country.
    ]

    http://blogs.theaustralian.news.com.au/mumble/index.php/theaustralian/comments/oz_media/P0/

  19. Diogenes

    This is what Shorten had to say

    [SHORTEN: Today is a day where we have got people grieving. There will be people watching this perhaps who don’t even know if a relative from theirs or a friend coming from Amsterdam was on this flight. So I’m conscious that we are all trying to make sense of something which cannot be made sense of. So I really just want to acknowledge that there are people here first. When we go to the issue of who has done it and why and what and the consequences, I did say in the Parliament that these separatist terrorists don’t build their own surface-to-air missiles. This plane was probably six miles above the earth’s surface. The Ukrainian Chargés d’Affaires, the senior Ukrainian Government representative of Australia is absolutely convinced it’s a BUK surface-to-air missile. I don’t know. If it is being supplied by a great power to these separatist terrorists, and if these separatists thought that there was a Ukrainian military – I don’t know, and you are always smart to wait until you have all the facts, but if the scenario is as you are putting, a great power cannot absolve itself of responsibility if it’s provided these weapons of murder to people and then they have killed innocent people.

    CURTIS: You have said in the Parliament you will fully back whatever decisions the Government takes. What should Australia be doing?

    SHORTEN: I’m conscious that the Prime Minister should get the support of the Opposition at a time like this. That’s my role, I believe. I have indicated to him in the Parliament that I get that there will be a lot of people having a very visceral reaction, which is completely legitimate. The strongest response that Australia can do is to first of all think through its responses. We don’t serve the people by being quick off the handle, but I also said that if there was a diplomatic response which was involved with the G20, Labor would support the Government.]

  23. I liked this on twitter

    [Someone tell Joe Hockey if you’re gonna play good-cop/bad-cop over your budget you have to do it with someone else and not yourself #auspol]

  24. Regarding Jacqui Lambi: The Senator was telling a crude joke about her own taste in men. She was doing this on FM radio, a medium which prefers crude humour. She was making fun of stereotypical preferences. I think she was inverting the conventional way that objectification works: normally it is men objectifying women. Here was a woman humorously turning the tables. She was telling a joke and the radio hosts, the young man who called in, and the radio audience were in on the joke. I don’t think the young man or indeed any men were being oppressed or degraded by this joke.

    I acknowledge the serious issue which people are raising. A person’s attractiveness and worth should not be reduced to their physical attributes and financial worth. It is overwhelmingly women and girls who are evaluated by their physical attributes, but men and boys face body image struggles as well, and in all cases this is wrong. We ought to change our attitudes to recognize the reality of nature: that human beings come in a range of shapes and sizes. We should stop torturing ourselves if we don’t fit a narrow, culturally created ideal.

    But surely there is space in a good society for people to lighten up and tell some jokes. Context is key.

  29. Thanks to those who pointed to Mumble

    I made a conscious decision years ago to avoid Murdoch commentary and made the same decision last week that I would avoid reading about MH17 as much as possible for the exact reasons that Mumble outlines.

    One day the (knee) jerks in the Australian media might wake up to the fact that it isn’t always about US.

    I won’t hold my breath

    And as for Julie Bishop, woman of steel …
    tell that to the asbestos victims.

  31. K17

    I know Prabowo rejected the election result by pulling himself out of the election, claiming that the election was corrupted. But now Sky is reporting that he is appealing the election result

  32. Diogenes

    [If the Russian Federation will not co-operate to help resolve and get to the heart of what has happened here]

    Notice his use of “if” . Abbott has largely adopted an attitude of there being no ifs or buts.

  34. Out of curiosity, is there anyone here who has been behind the paywall at Newcorpse (and returned with their sanity). (It sounds like the North Wall in Game of Thrones). What happens behind there? Are all of the readers who leave comments nutty fascist trolls? Are readers allowed to leave comments? Do many bother? Be interested to hear from anyone who has traveled to that strange zone.

  35. poroti

    Abbott said

    [Asked by reporters if Mr Putin should attend the G20 summit, which is being hosted by Australia as chair of the bloc, Mr Abbott replied: “Let’s wait and see what will happen”.]

    Compare that with

    [Greens leader Christine Milne said Australia should take a stand through the G20.

    “I would certainly back a move to say no, he (Putin) shouldn’t be coming to the G20,” she told Sky News.

    Queensland Premier Campbell Newman said Mr Putin should not be welcome in Brisbane unless he co-operated with the MH17 investigation.

    Labor’s Bill Shorten has also said Australia should consider barring Mr Putin from the November summit.]

  36. The Australian Muslim deported from the Philippines comes across as a real ‘charmer’ when you hear some of the stuff he’s been espousing while over there.

  37. K17

    I was checking out the herald Sun duing the latest RC hearings into the unions.

    Unsurprisingly they did not miss an opportunity for a headline screaming out how bad the unions are.

    Have not ventured since the MH17 tragedy. The radio and tv reportage has been bad enough

  39. The full context of what Christine Milne said:
    [Speaking on Sky News’s Australian Agenda program, Greens leader Christine Milne called for Mr Putin’s invitation to the G20 to be revoked.

    “I said at the time the Russians went into Crimea that we should have said then we no longer want Putin at the G20,’’ Senator Milne said.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/in-depth/mh17/vladimir-putin-not-welcome-here-says-warren-truss/story-fno88it0-1226995380872

  40. If the Workplaces (Protection From Protesters) Bill passes through the Tasmanian parliament, and if Jacqui Lambie then is too free with her speech at a protest in her home state, she might be arrested.
    [Legislation in the Tasmanian Parliament aimed at banning protests just about everywhere won’t endear Tasmania to anyone with strong opinions, or free will. Kathryn Barnsley explains.]

    https://newmatilda.com/2014/07/23/free-speech-tasmania-fairy-story

  41. victoria – Does Herald Sun have a paywall? I was thinking more along the lines of the Oz. What happens behind their paywall? Is it an active hub for readers like the Guardian or the SMH?

  43. Diogenes

    Since when are the Greens standard setters for diplomacy ? 🙂 As for CanJoh , say no more. Consider “if” they do not co-operate nothing unreasonable there .

  44. In my view Julie Bishop has represented and worked for Australia very well re MH17. Credit to her.

    Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten on the other hand are milking this largely for their own political interests in true careerist fashion.

  46. victoria

    Prabowo sounds like he’s having a top class hissy fit. He only pulled out his observers in the last minute to make it seem like his observers didn’t scrutinise the whole electoral process.. that there are corrupt processes within in. In previous cases, one can still appeal when they suspect the election wasn’t done properly and fairly. However, he’s pulled out in violation of electoral rules.

    Diogenes

    Easier to show an infograph than tell them to read a book. However, the book would make good further reading.

  49. [Tony Abbott has dispatched GG Sir Peter Cosgrove to Holland to welcome back the remains of Australians from the Ukraine. With dignity of course, and no doubt camera crews in tow.]

    I heard this reported as well. Peter Cosgrove has been put in an untenable position, having to do the Prime Minister’s bidding.

    Cosgrove should have announced he was going the The Netherlands as Governor General, like all those prior to him have done in times of tragedy. He is not Abbott’s servant.

  50. Raaraa

    Actually the book was pretty boring. Evidently the biggest change if humans all died suddenly would be mass floodings, especially in our cities.

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