BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. [94
    lizzie

    Naomi Woodley ‏@naomiwoodley 46s
    All cross benchers except Xenophon (who is ill) are w/ the Government. Labor & Greens against. The carbon tax repeal bills will pass.]

    And a great betrayal of our economic interests is enacted. What a disgrace the Tories are.

  2. Everyone drop your pants, we’re OPEN FOR BUSINESS!

    [In his comments on the submariners Abbott verged on prostituting history for his own geo-political ends.
    Despite the passage of time, many Australian families still experience the flow-on effects of the savagery and loss inflicted by the Japanese Imperial Army. For them and for others Abbott’s remarks were a bridge too far.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-praise-of-japanese-submariners-delivers-a-blow-to-nations-psyche-20140716-zti06.html#ixzz37gTpSasa

    Haha, yeah eff you grandad and yer Pacific war stories. An opponent with great honour! We were obviously confused when we ran those War Crimes Tribunals on Ambon.

  3. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 2m
    They even clapped. A shameful victory for old white men over the future. Note their names. History will damn them.]

  4. [Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 2m
    They even clapped. A shameful victory for old white men over the future. Note their names. History will damn them.]

    Their names live in infamy.

    We are the only country rolling back Carbon pricing.

    The only good news: their ultimate defeat is inevitable.

  5. Bugger… Damn fool of a ‘Liberal Party’

    I sent Julie Bishop an email expressing my displeasure… I expect she will change her mind now 🙂

  6. The carbon tax may be gone but expect the Tories to blame whatever happens in the next two years on the carbon tax.

    They have no policies, no plans.

  7. Now how will Abbott blame Labor when the countries that are doing something start slapping carbon tariff’s on Australian exports ?

  8. BB @ 81
    Such reasoning is not totally without sense, but no matter how it’s rationalised, a vote in parliament will be seen to condone or reject some set of values.

    I’m on the side of being able to rationalise such things. If Australians wish to run some experiment, it should be possible to run it and have the results made explicit. However. what I wish were possible and what is practical are two different things :P.

  9. How could Xenophon be absent for a vote like this, even if his vote didn’t count? Surely, you’d want to vote even if you had to be carried into the chamber (if that’s allowed). Is Nick a sook or in hiding?

  10. [
    Just for the record, voting with the government – the PUPs, Ricky Muir, David Leyonhjelm, Bob Day, John Madigan.
    ]

    Anyone heard from Al Gore lately?

    [
    Latika Bourke @latikambourke · 7m
    PUP’s @SenElectLambie on the repeal of the carbon tax “You beauty. One to go!” (Mining Tax next)
    ]

    And people were cheering these clowns the other week.

  11. Lenore is not happy.

    [Perhaps the last word should go to those well-known job-destroying, economy-hating, green-left anarchists in the federal treasury, whose comments in the “blue book” prepared in the event of a Coalition victory in 2010 were released under freedom of information.

    Treasury described a carbon-pricing mechanism as “the only realistic way of achieving the deep cuts in emissions that are required”.

    They went on: ”A market mechanism can achieve the necessary abatement at a cost per tonne of emissions that is far lower than alternative direct-action policies. Moreover, many direct action measures cannot be scaled up, and, for those that can, the cost per tonne of abatement would rise rapidly, imposing further costs on taxpayers and consumers. All of this serves to underscore the conclusion that the sooner an emissions trading scheme can be implemented the better.

    “Too much time has already been wasted, for which the Australian community will necessarily pay a high price.”

    Four years later we are still wasting time, and the cost continues to climb.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/17/carbon-tax-is-dead-direct-action?CMP=soc_568

  12. Another abysmal day in Australian politics. History will condemn this lot – their only hope lies in the likely speed of their coming irrelevance. Carbon pricing is simply inevitable.

    Meanwhile, this brown waste of time, from the most mediocre ‘leaders’ we’ve seen in years: http://www.crikey.com.au/2014/07/17/carbon-repeal-a-generational-failure-of-leadership/

    Oh Sussex St. If only you hadnt got Abbott elected in the first place.

    OH,and thanks OZ media for scrutinising Abbott’s claimseg “If aything, CO2 pricing is being rolled back”. Fact check that you losers: its ONLY Australia.

  13. I thought El Gordo was going to support ARENA, but that’s gone as well, I understand. I hope Labor tells him to part some of the folds on his arse and stick his inquiry into Newman where the sun don’t shine.

  14. They had the emails ready to go, full to the brim with slogans:

    [Dear Bushfire,

    The Carbon Tax has just been repealed.

    This is great news for Australian families and for our nation’s small businesses.

    Scrapping the Carbon Tax is a foundation of the Government’s Economic Action Strategy.

    Scrapping the Carbon Tax will save the average family $550 a year. You’ll see the benefits in coming power bills.

    In keeping with our election policy, the Government’s consumer watchdog, the ACCC, has been given the funding and power to ensure that savings are passed on to consumers.

    Scrapping the Carbon Tax will also take a cost burden off Australian businesses – this will make it easier for them to compete and create more jobs.

    At the election, the Coalition made a pledge: to scrap the Carbon Tax, stop the boats, get the Budget under control and build the roads of the 21st century. All these commitments were designed to help families.

    We are honouring our commitments to you and building a strong and prosperous economy for a safe and secure Australia.

    Regards,

    Tony Abbott ]

  15. Zoidlord did you see this?

    [Intelligence agencies in Australia will receive an unexpected funding boost to counter what they see as a growing risk of terrorist attacks emanating from the Middle East.

    The unusual injection of resources, just two months after the federal budget slashed funding to other departments, comes as questions are being asked about how intelligence agencies were blindsided by last month’s extraordinary breakout by Islamist militants from Syria into northern Iraq.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asis-and-asio-to-get-injection-of-funds-to-fight-threat-from-middle-east-20140710-zt3dm.html

    The ASIO report to parliament had

  16. [Senator Penny Wong ‏@SenatorWong 1m
    Penny on carbon: Abbott to go down as one of most short sighted, opportunistic, selfish & small ppl ever to hold the office of PM -Team Wong]

  17. In changing financial law and pollution law, Abbott has achieved what he was elected by his corporate masters to do – allow them to continue as normal.

    What a good little soldier.

  18. [Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 3m
    Silence from @chriskkenny & @mirandadevine when I ask for some facts to support their various claims. Says it all really.]

  19. @jules/137

    As I suspected, the ASIO were gutted of funding, so they can be threatened to bend the rules, just like on FOFA laws, ABC, NBN Co, etc.

    Nothing like a bunch of thugs.

  20. [140
    gloryconsequence
    Posted Thursday, July 17, 2014 at 11:59 am | PERMALINK
    In changing financial law and pollution law, Abbott has achieved what he was elected by his corporate masters to do – allow them to continue as normal.

    What a good little soldier.]

    Yep

  21. A look at the horror of Abbott’s action .So much for Clive’s bullshit about retaining a cap, it’s gorn as well. .

    [Tony Abbott battles the future on climate change by axing carbon tax

    Peel back the edges and the Abbott government’s agenda on climate change is bigger than just ‘‘axing the tax’’, and more destructive.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/tony-abbott-battles-the-future-on-climate-change-by-axing-carbon-tax-20140710-zt2d2.html

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