BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  2. Have they only just noticed Joe’s judgement? Wasn’t the cigar a prelude.

    [Joe Hockey’s threat to bypass the Senate by ordering spending cuts outside of parliamentary approval has touched off a new Labor scare campaign and sparked concerns within the government over the Treasurer’s judgment.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-frontbenchers-sour-on-joe-hockey-after-threat-to-order-spending-cuts-20140716-3c1nw.html#ixzz37fNUPNEs

  5. In the US there has been much comment about the TSA security simians being hired are pretty low grade. So how dumb are they ? ………

    [Journalist is stopped by TSA agent who thought District of Columbia was a different country!

    Justin Gray told WFTV he was confused at first when the agent looked at his driver’s license and asked to see a passport.

    But when he realized what was going on, his confusion turned to concern about the caliber of TSA employees working to ensure the safety of those who fly out of Orlando International Airport.]

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2693941/Journalist-stopped-TSA-agent-didnt-know-District-Columbia-US.html#ixzz37fXD2Dpg
    Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

  9. Bastards

    [Israeli naval ship bombs Palestinian children on Gaza beach, killing four

    Four children were killed in Gaza City on Wednesday, medics said, in Israeli shelling witnessed by The Telegraph and other foreign journalists………….A journalist who saw the incident said some of the children who survived were running away when another shell seemed to be aimed at them………….“The kids were playing football on the beach,” Ahmed Abu Hassera, who witnessed the explosions along with dozens of foreign journalists located nearby, told Reuters. “When the first shell hit the land, they ran away but another shell hit them all. It looked as if the shells were chasing them.”………..We do not target civilians, we target Hamas terrorists,” IDF representative Peter Lerner told ]
    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/israel/10971306/Israeli-naval-ship-bombs-Palestinian-children-on-Gaza-beach-killing-four.html

  11. And, prominent on the ‘Letters’ page —

    [Sophie is still the voice of Indi
    July 17, 2014, midnightBRUCK: Who’s the real voice in Canberra?
    BRUCK: Who’s the real voice in Canberra?

    See your ad hereIf I am reading things correctly, it seems that Sophie Mirabella is working behind the scenes to get the owners of Bruck investigated “Sophie Mirabella gutted over loss of 60 jobs at Wangaratta” (The Border Mail, July 15).

    What an awful and tragic irony, that it is Mrs Mirabella who is the one who is actually able to get things happening in Canberra.

    And even more ironic that Cathy McGowan has to seek a meeting with a minister who should have been Mrs Mirabella.

    It seems the real voice of Indi is still Sophie Mirabella.]

    http://www.bordermail.com.au/story/2423055/sophie-is-still-the-voice-of-indi/?cs=52

    Interestingly, that letter appears to have got into the paper in lightning speed — mine don’t get printed so promptly!

  13. @latikambourke: PUP’s @SenElectLambie says PM Abbott should cut foreign aid by at least 50% if he can’t get other budget cuts through Parlt.

    Oh dear. Hockey bully tactics failing

  17. “@latikambourke: Nats Senator @mattjcan says in country Aust you wake up next to two things – your wife and the ABC. He wants to keep both.”

  18. guytaut

    What really shits me about Toolman is that the Abbott govt MPs get a smooth interview, and the opposition MPs do not

  20. “@latikambourke: Labor Senator Doug Cameron says Lib Sen @JamesMcGrathLNP is a ‘fruitloop’ and if he’s a high calibre Lib he’d hate to go to a party meeting.”

  21. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Late again this morning!

    Bully Hockey gets sooky and causes all sorts of problems.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/liberal-frontbenchers-sour-on-joe-hockey-after-threat-to-order-spending-cuts-20140716-3c1nw.html
    Michelle Grattan examines this fiscal hissy fit.
    https://theconversation.com/hockey-should-stop-making-threats-about-the-future-and-try-to-manage-the-present-29294
    Strange! There seems to be no mention of this report on significantly reduced smoking rates and the effect of plain packaging on the front page of The Australian.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/plunge-in-smoking-attributed-to-plain-packaging-20140716-ztqht.html
    The Kouk examines the figures with considerable glee.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/how-good-is-this-95-of-12-17-year-olds-have-never-smoked.html#.U8b6O_mSySo
    Which side of politics is this idiot new Liberal Senator going to deleteriously affect?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/liberal-senator-james-mcgrath-makes-radical-call-for-gst-rise-privatisation-of-leftbiased-abc-20140716-3c1j8.html
    Over to you Prissy!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/nsw-educators-slam-kevin-donnellys-remarks-on-corporal-punishment-20140716-3c1ni.html
    If it wasn’t such a shitty, vindictive budget the government would not be in this parlous situation.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-blocks-could-blow-12b-hole-in-deficit-plan-20140716-3c1o5.html
    How very interesting is this study on public vs private schooling.
    https://theconversation.com/state-school-kids-do-better-at-uni-29155
    Abbott’s Tea Party and the Australian political spectrum.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abbotts-tea-party-and-australias-true-political-spectrum,6676
    Bob Ellis’s observations on the government front bench.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/07/16/the-front-bench-observed/

  22. Yes, Ulhmann’s been the same since the days when Rudd was opposition leader. How the ABC management think that this is ok is beyond me, as it’s such blatant bias.

  23. Section 2 . . .

    The ridiculous Tax Office purge – a good examination by the New Matilda.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/07/16/tax-office-purge-cutting-your-nose-spite-your-face
    Peter Martin on the illusory effect of the carbon price.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/sunday-roast-was-lamb-to-the-slaughter-of-the-carbon-tax-20140716-ztkd0.html?rand=1405544330932
    Robert Manne – History will condemn modern climate change deniers.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/16/history-will-condemn-climate-change-denialists
    And the shocking asymmetry of this conflict tragically continues.
    http://www.smh.com.au/world/israelgaza-conflict-four-young-boys-killed-playing-on-beach-20140717-ztu30.html
    Van Badham – The Coalition loves welfare as long as it’s for the charity sector.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/16/the-coalition-loves-welfare-as-long-as-its-for-the-charity-sector
    Maybe the High Court can get the Dishonourable Scott Morrison to open his mealy mouth.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asylum-seekers-held-behind-locked-doors-at-sea-denied-proper-legal-help-claim-20140716-ztshd.html
    Here’s how the 153 AS are cooped up somewhere on the high seas.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/tamil-asylum-seekers-being-held-at-sea-in-windowless-locked-rooms
    A huge detention of alleged paedophiles in the UK.
    http://www.theguardian.com/society/2014/jul/16/660-suspected-paedophiles-arrested-uk
    Abbott didn’t sell his arse to Murdoch. He gave it away. Here’s Tony Wright’s take on the celebration.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pm-leads-cheers-for-murdoch-gift-20140716-3c1lr.html
    Palmer’s antics aren’t endearing him to several Senators.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lib-dem-senator-frustrated-at-palmer-party-for-not-basing-votes-on-a-consistent-position-20140717-zttud.html

  24. Section 3 . . .

    Mark Latham lays into the AWU/Blewitt issue.
    http://www.afr.com/p/opinion/keystone_kops_on_the_awu_fraud_8LM0pDmlnWkazdDHVAkoYP
    Jonathan Holmes says The Australian is the country’s bitchiest newspaper.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/pomp-and-flattery-as-the-australian-celebrates-its-50th-year-20140715-zt7nl.html
    New media ownership rules? Be careful of Murdoch.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/turnbull-pushes-ahead-on-moves-that-could-reshape-industry-20140716-3c1mr.html
    A new Fairfax columnist hits hard at Abbott comes close to prostituting wartime history for his own political ends.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/tony-abbotts-praise-of-japanese-submariners-delivers-a-blow-to-nations-psyche-20140716-zti06.html
    I wonder where these irresponsible dude got their big money from.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/two-mates-lose-two-luxury-cars-to-police-20140716-zttm8.html
    Andrew Dyson nails Abbott and his problems beautifully.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/opinion/andrew-dyson/20090819-epqv.html
    MUST SEE! Alan Moir on waiting for the promised $550.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
    Great work from Ron Tandberg on the new FoFA rules.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
    David Rowe – another beauty this morning.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  25. victoria

    These dot points could be a clue..

    Abbot -seminarian Fail
    Uhlmann -seminarian Fail.
    Abbott- Santamaria fanboi
    Uhlmann – DLP candidate.
    Labor- Godless socialists.

  26. An interesting new message from Get up targeting Chris Pyne, who has suffered a massive swing against him in Sturt.
    [The people of Sturt are furious — and your MP is feeling the heat.

    Education Minister, Christopher Pyne, is being taken to task over the Government’s US-style overhaul of our tertiary education system. Polling in your electorate is showing an enormous swing against him, with his primary support down a whopping 13%.[1] This means that if an election were held tomorrow, Mr Pyne would lose his seat by a landslide.

    Will you write to Mr Pyne now, and ask him to right his wrongs on higher education?

    https://getup.org.au/a-smarter-australia ]
    So an education minister who cuts education funding while in the most highly educated electorate in the State, with many academics and private schools as residents, suffers a big swing. Well deserved I’d say. The thought of losing Chris is indeed a happy one.

    Have a good day all. I wonder what the Abbott Palmer circus will throw up today?

  28. Sometimes Bob Ellis hammers the nail straight into the wood.

    [Mental illness is afflicting some, not all, of the federal Ministry.

    The Prime Minister accused Chris Bowen of liking the seven-dollar co-payment, though he never has. He said the ‘debt and deficit disaster’ had engendered the co-payment, though all its monies go to a Research Fund. He further accused Chris Bowen, who had raised a senile, drooling woman’s difficulty paying her seven dollars, of ‘making a cheap political point’. He kept praising Bob Hawke for having ‘fathered’ and Jenny Macklin for having ‘mothered’ (untrue) the co-payment, though Hawke decided against its continuance twenty-two years ago. He denied that Hockey had suggested cuts, further cuts, to health and education, though he had, on air, this morning. He seemed a little wandery, his always thin voice attaining now the ‘childish treble’ Will Shakespeare noted in old, forgetful men in the Sixth Age of his peroration.]

    Hockey: “Like those men in padded cells who think they are Napoleon, he bewails his unjust persecution, and will not change his mind.”

    Morrison “Morrison yapped like a mastiff”

    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2014/07/16/the-front-bench-observed/

  29. Australia’s foremost budget expert? This person makes a living trying to scare people via sensationalist claims in the media.

    [One of Australia’s foremost budget experts says hundreds of billions of dollars in spending will be added to the nation’s books if key budget measures do not pass through the Senate.

    Chris Richardson, from Deloitte Access Economics, has told ABC TV’s 7.30 program the Senate plan to block cuts and new fees from the Abbott Government’s first budget will cost $300 billion over the next decade.

    “Essentially, the Senate is not just blocking the budget for the next handful of years, but blocking the budget for the next decade,” he told 7.30.
    ]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-16/deadlock-leaves-government-facing-300b-budget-hole/5602580

  30. victoria

    I don’t think Mirabella would stand a hope in hell of getting up, especially if there’s a swing AWAY from the Coalition.

    However, no one in the Liberal party strikes me as anything other than delusional, so it wouldn’t surprise me if she – and they – are convinced she can do it.

  31. @Popehat: #SalonExcuses What right-wing libertarian theocrats call “parody” is nothing more than an effort to silence marginalized voices.

  33. The workers friend , the GG, reckons the fuel excise is a blow for the workers 🙂

    [Rich will bear fuel excise change

    WEALTHIER families would take the biggest hit from a key budget saving that Labor and the Greens are blocking, according to a confidential analysis. ]

  34. Stock up on popcorn folks.

    [Clive Palmer to use power to set up Senate inquiry into Newman Government

    CLIVE Palmer will today turn his new political power against Campbell Newman to set up a wide-ranging inquiry into alleged rorts, conflicts of interest and human rights abuses by the Queensland Government. ]

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/clive-palmer-to-use-power-to-set-up-senate-inquiry-into-newman-government/story-fnihsrf2-1226991565570

  36. As per article linked earlier

    [While there is no doubt this was initially true, those in the conservative debate with a different viewpoint now say that the way building suppliers stepped in to take advantage of the union bans on Boral and the extension of Toll’s agreement with the Transport Workers Union for the union to target five Toll competitors a year instead of one shows that the difference between the behaviour of unions and big corporations has become marginal (Appeasing unions is taking its Toll, July 16). The view of this side of conservative politics is that the employers have become as much a part of the problem as the unions.]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/7/17/industrial-relations/union-inquiry-splitting-coalition-two

  37. Good news for us. Bad for Senator Brandis

    “@BernardKeane: In any event, Wong and Conroy will add significant firepower to JCIS at a point when it desperately needs it.”

  40. And this too is rather interesting

    [Tony Abbott had no idea when he called a royal commission into unions that he would uncover deep employer involvement in what was going on. Had he talked with opposition leader Bill Shorten he would have discovered that Shorten knew all about the building agreements — the employers in the commercial building industry had decided to get into bed with the militant CFMEU rather than Shorten’s milder AWU, which was left out in the cold. Shorten was bruised.]

    http://www.businessspectator.com.au/article/2014/7/17/industrial-relations/union-inquiry-splitting-coalition-two

  41. “though Hawke decided against its continuance twenty-two years ago”

    Make that at least 23 years as he was rolled in December 1991 and stayed on the back backbench for about 6 weeks before retiring I think.

  42. Murdoch’s Oz seems to be running short of stories today.

    The topmost three related articles are about Murdoch’s “determination” to take over Time Warner (including CNN) for $85 billion.

    This “has the potential to dramatically redraw the global media landscape”. Murdoch “stands on the cusp of pulling off the deal of a lifetime”.

    Just what the world needs!

  43. citizen

    It will fail. Democrats want no more power to the GOP. So will now have an interest in pursuing criminality out of UK to stop bid.

  44. victoria

    Anyone who has worked in the construction industry over the past few decades knows the companies are as waist deep in it as any of the unions.

  46. Re Socrates @3: I wonder whan the Attorney General George Brandis is going to announce that Plain Packaging has failed, the legislation is a complete mess and it needs to be taken back to the drawing board. In due course changed rules will be introduced, Clive will jump up and down then agree to the new rules with a minor tweak. The new rules will be full of loopholes which the tobacco companies will drive a truck through. Returns after the 2016 election will show Big Tobacco donations flowing into LNP coffers.

    It fits a pattern: Gonski, FOFA, the National Curriculum, the infrastructiure to support action on climate change. There are a few more bits of the Rudd/Gillard legacy to tick off: scrap the RET, scrap or nobble Plain Packaging, replace the NDIS with troughs that private interests / Liberal mates can get their snouts into…

  47. I think that Labor should be very wary about jumping into bed with Clive on an inquiry into Newman (much as I hate the twerp). They should demand a hell of a lot in return.

  48. [Tony Abbott had no idea when he called a royal commission into unions that he would uncover deep employer involvement in what was going on. ]

    I find it implausible that the coalition wouldn’t have countenanced the possibility of the RC uncovering industry involvement such that it would run interference on the ‘unions bad!’ narrative they were constructing.

    One of the criticisms of the RC’s ToR was that they were too narrowly focused. That to me said straight off the bat the govt were trying to limit findings against industry from coming out.

  50. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN

    Yep.Labor doesn’t have to do or say anything about Newman. Like most of the current LNP mess they can sit back and enjoy opponents doing it to themselves. Clive will have more than enough axes to grind with Newman for him to make all the running.

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