BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  2. Murdoch’s Fox is worth the same today it was 16 years ago…. another brilliant Australian businessman.

    Reminds me of the story re Kerry Packer , if he had left his inheritance from dad in the bank savings account he would have been worth twice as much when he carked it .

    Maybe Rupert should get Time warner … he will go broke faster.

  4. My latest tweet I am sharing despite not normally doing so.

    “@guytaur: .So @CliveFPalmer Minister not able to say saving of $550 being passed on. Sounds like you are being conned while this not being answered”

  6. “@SenatorWong: Govt threatens to move gag on carbon debate, refuses to answer qns re Palmer amendmt, now one of its own senators is taking up time.Farcical”

  8. “@Simon_Cullen: The Senate is now debating a Greens amendment. They’re concerned people who have solar panels could be caught up in reporting requirements”

  9. “@Simon_Cullen: Earlier this morning, the Senate voted down a Labor amendment which would’ve converted the carbon tax to a floating carbon price.”

  13. poroti

    Totally agree with you on Israel the arrogance of Netanyahu et al is just appalling.

    I know the think they are the chosen people but really how many do they have to kill to prove their point.

    Disgusting!

  17. nevso ‏@nevso 30m
    $230m Wave power project in Portland abandoned after failure of support by TAbbott Govt #auspol #libfail

  18. Tony Abbott had no idea when he called a royal commission into unions that he would uncover deep employer involvement in what was going on.

    All pretty predictable. Right back in Slater & Gordon days with Wilson, Blewitt and Theiss, it was pretty plain that Theiss didn’t want any rocks being looked under.

    They paid their money. They got industrial peace. I read somewhere that the bridge in question was built under budget, ahead of schedule with few if any serious PH&S issues.

    The cheques were made out clearly to Wilson’s association, not to the Union, and Theiss got what they wanted: a successful project.

    I can’t see how (as Latham argues) this is “a clear case of embezzlement” by Wilson/Blewitt of the Union at all. The funds were never the Union’s. The Union in fact arranged for them to be given back to Theiss.

    Whether there were any kick-backs to Theiss management in the back alley behind the office afterwards, we can only speculate. Whatever the case, Theiss has, apparently, never complained.

    Wilson was a good witness. He may be “uneducated” (I’m only guessing there), but he’s a sharp as a stiletto. Counsel Assisting didn’t put anything over him, and never once succeeded in getting him to say something he didn’t want to say.

    Blewitt, on the other hand was hopeless: contradictory, confused and suffering from “selective amnesia”. It was funny to hear him complain, fair go mate, that he was being asked about things “which happened 20 years ago”, book-ended before and after by photographic recollections of who said what, to whom and when in perfect detail.

    His depiction of himself as an innocent and fearful dupe of Wilson was laughable.

    In any other court or commission of review he would be regarded as an unreliable witness.

    His seeming total immunity from prosecution – if there is all this clear evidence, plus a confession, why not prosecute? – is also a worry, as Latham points out.

    The Victorian Police have disgraced themselves in this matter (and also in the Thomson matter).

    Far, far worse things have gone on in unions and crooked corporations since this cosy little deal was done back in 1993. The very existence of a Royal Commission into it (as a specific term of reference) is dodgy and pollutes our notions of convention and decency, no matter how they dress it up as a “proper” hearing.

  20. Huh? Cormann is fixated on Labor.

    Naomi Woodley ‏@naomiwoodley 7m
    The Finance Minister Mathias Cormann says the funding cuts to ARENA were in Labor’s last budget, so the Govt won’t support the amendment.

  22. As I’ve said several times, for all Labor’s compensation and legislation, Tony Abbott was unwittingly the Greatest Friend that green energy ever had:

    “As confirmed by Origin Energy managing director Grant King, there are other factors resulting in lower emissions in the electricity sector – including lower demand, the impact of the [Renewable Energy Target

    , flooding at the Yallourn power station and increased hydro output,” a spokesman for Mr Hunt said.

    However, the ANU paper takes those factors into account in estimating the carbon price impact, Professor Jotzo said.

    Rather, the impact of the carbon price is probably understated. The highly politicised debate preceded its implementation by about a year, prompting energy consumers to focus more on electricity costs – and presumably to begin making savings – well before the tax began.
    “We would expect politically motivated talk … may well have had a large impact on people’s power usage patterns,” Professor Jotzo said.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/carbon-price-helped-curb-emissions-anu-study-finds-20140717-ztuf6.html#ixzz37gLmcIQ5 ]

  24. guytaur

    The U.K. is turning coal mines into solar farms.

    Brilliant. While our Coal govt is turning the Barrier Reef into a dead outcrop.

  25. “@Simon_Cullen: The carbon tax repeal legislation is now out of ‘committee’ stage. Getting closer to a final vote.”

  26. Observations made by someone of the latest hearing of the RC.

    15 October, 2009. At the giant Pentridge Prison redevelopment in Melbourne’s northern suburbs, a massive concrete pump is set up. Though there have been excavations and backfillings throughout the area, no compaction tests are done on the ground.
    Around 11am, one of the pump’s outriggers sinks into the mud. As the whole appliance tips, the pump’s boom hits Thomas Kelly from behind, smashing him into the freshly poured concrete slab he has been working on. He is hauled out by his workmates, but declared dead at the scene.
    8 July, 2014. In a full day of evidence at the Royal Commission into Trade Union Governance and Corruption, the killing of Thomas Kelly is referred to on more than a dozen occasions. The event is referred to as a “tragic accident”, a “terrible incident”, an “awful incident”, a “tragic incident”, or simply as “the incident”.
    Not once is the cause of Thomas Kelly’s death discussed. No one asks why such a serious failing in health and safety happened, nor why not one prosecution ever got to court. With the union lawyer muzzled by the Royal Commission’s procedural rules, there is no mention of the fact that, because Mr Kelly was working on a sham subcontracting arrangement, he wasn’t covered by insurances that would have meant a payout on death. No one asks about the welfare of his wife, or his two sons. No one even says his name.

  31. Bruce Hawker:

    What would have happened though, if Labor had come out and said, “well this is the government you voted for and despite lying to you about cuts to health, education, pensions and jobs, we will recognise its mandate and let the budget pass. However, we will spend every day up to the election reminding you of the the impact of these measures”?

    The answer is that Abbott would have been stuck trying to sell a harsh budget full of broken promises, and Palmer and his party’s vote in the Senate would have been irrelevant and ignored. Instead, Labor has hardly been heard over the Palmer roar and I bet that both Labor and the Coalition are bleeding votes to Palmer United party as undecided voters look to what they see is Palmer’s strength.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/17/why-labor-should-let-joe-hockeys-budget-through

    So, saving families and pensioners is a “short term” thing, while voting to crush them is in their best interests?

    Two years of whingeing from Labor about Budget measures THEY voted for would go down like a lead balloon.

    Waving the Budget through and then giving Abbott the chance to spin the “benefits” any way he can over two years (with the aid of the Murdoch media and all the rest of them carping about how “hypocritical” Labor is to complain about things they waved through) always has to be the wrong thing to do. In the meantime, while Labor is carping and whingeing, real people suffer real damage.

  32. Re RC into unions.

    It is now becoming crystal clear what the LNP strategy is.

    In their first term – nobble the unions.

    In their second term – reintroduce Work Choices, or worse.

  33. Justin Barbour ‏@justinbarbour 1m
    The abuse currently being directed at Senator Milne is disgusting, and borderline sexist. Govt is not allowing her to speak. #aussenate

  35. “@eleanorbloom: “This will be a short-lived victory for the govt today” Cos people want action on climate change; want renewables. — Milne.”

  37. Labor is more closely associated (publicly) with the activities of unions than the Coalition is with the activities of business. In terms of political fallout, I doubt the Coalition are too worried about a few employers being caught out – unless they happen to be personally chummy with someone involved. They would still want to keep investigations as narrow as possible to avoid diluting any consequences for unions and Labor.

  39. Bernard Keane ‏@BernardKeane 1m
    Carbon repeal debate in the Senate has now reached the Dribbling Cretin stage.

    Greg Jericho ‏@GrogsGamut 1m
    Good to see Senator McDonald, showing his complete ignorance as he speaks for the Bill to remove the carbon price

  40. Yep this country is going backwards at a rate of knots. How depressment

    Australia’s investment in renewable energy all but dried up in the first half of 2014 amid uncertainty fuelled by the government’s latest review of the mandatory target, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance.

    In the six months to June, just $40 million was invested in large-scale renewable energy, such as wind farms, the lowest level since the first half of 2001, according to Kobad Bhavnagri, head of BNEF’s Australian unit.

    http://www.smh.com.au/environment/climate-change/australias-renewable-energy-industry-grinds-to-a-halt-20140716-ztio2.html#ixzz37gOCPbs7

  41. LOL.

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 1m

    Six months ago it was cold in the northern hemisphere; now it’s cold in the southern hemisphere – see, global warming is crap.

    This is liberals.

  42. Retweeted by Greens
    Christine Milne ‏@senatormilne 3m

    Tony Abbott has said to the Australian people: you must pay for the costs of global warming – the big polluters will get off scot free.

    Indeed, another hidden tax.

  43. Re quote from Bruce Hawker in BB@81: However, we will spend every day up to the election reminding you of the the impact of these measures”?

    Something like that worked for ‘boats’ and the ‘carbon tax’ in the last Parliament. However, I think that would only work now if the nation’s major media organisations got on board and worked as Labor’s propaganda service. As it is, the Government would be given an easy ride while the opposition’s ‘reminders’ would be minimised or ignored, Better to block the Budget as far as possible to maximise exposure and minimise the damage it does.

  44. Naomi Woodley ‏@naomiwoodley 46s
    All cross benchers except Xenophon (who is ill) are w/ the Government. Labor & Greens against. The carbon tax repeal bills will pass.

  45. Paul Bongiorno ‏@PaulBongiorno 1m
    Today’s fiasco had its genesis in the defeat of @TurnbullMalcolm in 2009 and the failure of @MrKRudd to call an election.

  49. “@senatormilne: This is a tragic day for Australia and the planet but the Greens will lead the campaign to make the big polluters pay for global warming”

  50. A bill presented to parliament on Wednesday by the attorney general, George Brandis, would expand the powers of the Australian Security Intelligence Organisation (Asio), including creation of a new offence punishable by five years in jail for “any person” who disclosed information relating to “special intelligence operations”.

    The person would be liable for a 10-year term if the disclosure would “endanger the health or safety of any person or prejudice the effective conduct of a special intelligence operation”.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/16/journalists-face-jail-leaks-security-laws

    3 points:

    Does this mean Andrew Wilke would have faced jail for his interviews and public comments about the Iraq war?

    Can operation sovereign borders, or any aspect of it be considered a special intelligence operation?

    and

    Frack you Clive Palmer you fecken frackhead.

    (That last point was just a general one.)

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