BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor

Three new polls paint a consistent picture of weakness for the Coalition, and offer some indication of Palmer United enjoying a dividend from its recent publicity.

This week’s BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which avails itself of new results from Newspoll, Essential Research and Morgan, provides further evidence against the notion that the Coalition might have turned the corner following its post-budget slump. Labor is up 0.3% on two-party preferred, enough to boost it by three on the seat projection with gains in Queensland, South Australia and Tasmania. The main change on the primary vote is a lift for Palmer United, which might reflect its publicity surge in the wake of the Senate changeover, although you would want to see that corroborated by a few more results before taking it to the bank. Newspoll as always provides new numbers on leadership approval, but they have once again failed to disturb a picture that has been set in place for at least the past few weeks – a slight decline for Bill Shorten off a post-budget spike, and reliably poor ratings for Tony Abbott.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,046 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.5-46.5 to Labor”

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  1. Player One @ 112

    [So it’s official – Abbott is a Cnut.]

    I object Cnut was a better sort of king.

    Abbott is no Cnut.

    It’s possible you mistyped the 2nd and 3rd letters.

  2. ZL I didn’t think they needed to be threatened to bend the rules.

    This is from the parliamentary notes on the changes:

    [55. As the PJCIS recognised, a legislative framework for the conduct of SIOs is necessary to ensure that ASIO employees and affiliates will have appropriate legal protections if it is necessary to engage in authorised, covert activities and operations that involve otherwise unlawful conduct for the legitimate purpose of carrying out functions in accordance with the ASIO Act. For example, it is an offence under section 102.5 of the Criminal Code for a person to intentionally provide training to, or receive training from, a terrorist organisation where the person is reckless as to the organisation’s status as a terrorist organisation. If an ASIO employee or affiliate is required to collect covert intelligence in relation to a terrorist organisation or its members, they may be exposed to criminal liability under section 102.5 if, in the course of collecting the relevant intelligence, they receive training from that organisation.]

    You can read the whole thing here.

    I’m not a lawyer but some here are. i would assume that if you are involved with a terrorist organisation while working on a covert op for ASIO you would not be reckless as to the status of that organisation. I don’t see how that example justifies the blanket immunity from prosecution that the changes appear to provide.

  3. Shorten: I hope Tony Abbott has the courage to sit down and talk to pensioners, teachers, nurses, single mums in the break

  8. “@AustralianLabor: “[Tony Abbott] will try and say anything to avoid the science of climate change” @billshortenmp #auspol #climatechange”

  9. Ian Macdonald in the senate today……

    “If there is global warming, notwithstanding that in Brisbane on Saturday morning we had the coldest day in 113 years – but I have always indicated, Mr deputy president I have an open mind on this.”

    Bloody moron… open mind but no one home!

  10. @jules/152

    You could also say that the board of NBN Co or ABC Management wasn’t threatened, but it was.

    Hockey removed funding from ASIO, that is the threat.

  12. Shorten: An ETS is the best way to. We settled for second best in 2009 and should have taken it to a new election. We will back an ETS.

  15. “@latikambourke: At the National Press Club for Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi’s speech. I have a feeling it will be controversial. #npc”

  18. Wasn’t the “Cnut stops the tides” story an example of how Cnut showed that his authority was limited, not unlimited – kind of the opposite of how its used today.

    My understanding of the story – if Canute was in Abbott’s position he would have proposed more action to stop AGW because he recognised the limits of human power compared to the natural world.

    While Cnut recognised he couldn’t stop the tides Abbott would probably be surprised that they got his feet wet.

  19. Ugh. Happy day for the climate deniers, I guess.

    So when do I get my $550 back? I think I will invest it in air-conditioning.

  20. [ Player One @ 112

    So it’s official – Abbott is a Cnut.

    I object Cnut was a better sort of king.

    Abbott is no Cnut.

    It’s possible you mistyped the 2nd and 3rd letters. ]

    Entirely possible – but I was referring to his futile attempts to hold back the tide of informed opinion rather than any of his other attributes.

    There is no doubt in my mind that history will regard Abbott as the biggest Cnut Australia has ever seen.

  21. K17

    [Someone just told me (a smoker) that plain paper packaging makes all cigarettes taste the same. Interesting.]

    A study recently reported that.

  23. Player One

    [Entirely possible – but I was referring to his futile attempts to hold back the tide of informed opinion rather than any of his other attributes.]

    I tried to put to rest that canard against Cnut some months ago.

    The King was trying to demonstrate to his silly advisors that a king CANNOT hold back the tide. He was demonstrating his limitations, humility, if you like.

    He was the opposite to Abbott.

    Please stop traducing Cnut!!!!! 🙂

  24. jules

    Yep Cnut the Great has been bloody hard done by in the public’s mind. It was to demonstrate his humility and piety so that rules Abbott out as a comparison.

  25. P1 and swamprat

    You can still use the story of Cnut its just Abbott is the silliest of the advisers. He sees the demonstration and still says the tide can be held back

  26. Abbott presser coming up shortly, going to give it a miss. I am already more than a little pissed with this pathetic govt doing the bidding of vested interests

  27. zl @ 160 – I get what you’re saying but while I can see that the ABC or NBNco might need threatening I dunno if ASIO would. I thought they were defunded by Gillard and if anything the funding was restored by Abbott.

  28. Re Asha Leu @169: So when do I get my $550 back?

    Labor should be raising this at every opportunity: ‘where is everyone’s $550? When do they get it? How can you prove it’. Probably not in the House of Reps where they’ll get a long-winded non-answer condemning the previous Government, but elsewhere wheenever the subject of Climate Change action is raised.

    The answers are of course along the lines of:
    1. It’s mostly been pocket by businesses. See $100 leg of lamb.
    2. Never
    3. You can’t.

    The Government knows this but has been lying for 3 years. Try to force exposure of this scam.

  30. It seems there was 3 Labor Senators missing for the Carbon Tax Repeal vote. 1 of them might have been a parliamentary pair with the missing Coalition Senator, but who was the other 2?

  31. As Crikey poits outr, conditions are ripe in the mid-term for a complete reversal of today’s CO2 price developments:

    [“There is some hope: the inability or unwillingness of governments to rein in fossil-fuel energy producers and distributors—who have played a key role in urging the repeal of the carbon price—has meant that Australian households and business are paying far more for energy than they should. As a result, demand for coal-fired power has fallen while interest in renewable energy has surged.”]

    Basically: this shit is going nowhere fast.

  33. Last week it was honouring Japanese sailors, this week keeping 150 people locked up in a prison ship ….. and now Australia has become the first country in the world to abolish a price on carbon.

    What a disgrace this proud country has become under the Abbott regime …..

  35. @Jules/177

    They were defunded by Hockey budget.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/asis-and-asio-to-get-injection-of-funds-to-fight-threat-from-middle-east-20140710-zt3dm.html

    “The unusual injection of resources, just two months after the federal budget slashed funding to other departments, comes as questions are being asked about how intelligence agencies were blindsided by last month’s extraordinary breakout by Islamist militants from Syria into northern Iraq.”

    They were apparently increased in Gillard budgets:

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2013-05-28/gillard-defends-intelligence-funding-in-wake-of-asio-hack/4718166

  36. What really shits me about the coalition buffoons is their ridiculous utterances regarding the weather. Telling us how cold it has been. Well it is bloody winter, and do they bloody know the difference between weather and climate….

  37. badcat

    [
    Last week it was honouring Japanese sailors]
    Note the deafening silence from the RSL. If any Labor did that the RSL fogies would be out screaming on TV cameras right across our wide brown land.

  38. [What really shits me about the coalition buffoons is their ridiculous utterances regarding the weather. Telling us how cold it has been. Well it is bloody winter, and do they bloody know the difference between weather and climate….]

    I find it annoying that when we increasingly have record hot Summers, their attitude is “Wah! It’s Summer! Lefties are just cherry picking!” but one chilly day in July is absolute proof that global temperatures aren’t increasing!

  39. “@scottsues: If your biggest achievement in government is repealing someone else’s legislation you’re a pretty low achiever. #auspol”

  44. [Bruce Hawker:

    I bet that both Labor and the Coalition are bleeding votes to Palmer United party as undecided voters look to what they see is Palmer’s strength.

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/17/why-labor-should-let-joe-hockeys-budget-through ]

    You looked at the polls lately, both 2PP and primaries, including the overall trends since Xmas?

    All things considered, and without getting complacent, I don’t see much there for Labor to worry about at this point, or justify indulging in a major change of direction.

  45. Carey Moore

    The anti refugee sentiment has been ramped up to 11 already. The coalition have also been doing their level best to heighten anxiety re terrorists in our midst

  47. Self congratulating nutters:

    Retweeted by Mathias Cormann
    Georgie Porgie ‏@Manlyboyze 1h

    #auspol what a great day for Australia, carbon tax is gone. Well done @TonyAbbottMHR @JoeHockey @SenatorAbetz @MathiasCormann

  50. [ victoria

    Posted Thursday, July 17, 2014 at 12:52 pm | Permalink

    badcat

    Change the govt. Change the country
    ]

    ———————————————–

    Abbott might have won some pyrrhic victory today but his disgrace will go down in history and a disgrace from which the good name of this country will take a long time to recover.

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