The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, but is in all other respects unchanged on last week with Labor on 40%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6% and two-party preferred at 53-47 in favour of Labor. Other questions:
• Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they trusted financial planners to provide independent and appropriate advice versus 49% with little or no trust, and 73% a royal commission into banks and financial planning with only 11% opposed.
• On coal seam gas mining, 22% want a complete ban, 32% want restrictions on farm land, and only 12% think current regulation sufficient.
• The existing renewable energy target is supported by 36% of respondents, with 29% thinking it too low and only 13% too high.
• Fifty-two per cent approve of Australia having closer defence links with Japan, versus 18% who disapprove. Five per cent rate relations with Japan more important than China versus 15% for vice-versa, while 62% rate them as equally important.
A quick run through the other polling of the past few days:
• Newspoll in The Australian had Labor leading 54-46, down from 55-45 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 36% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (down two).
• Roy Morgan’s fortnightly result had the Coalition down one to 34%, Labor up two to 38.5%, the Greens down half a point to 11.5%, and Palmer United up half a point to 7.5%. Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44 using preference flows from the previous election, but the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5.
• The National Tertiary Education Union published UMR Research robo-polling of 23 marginal electorates showing Labor set to clean up in the lot, including Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt. Kevin Bonham has his doubts.
Just Me:
I’m hopeful like you that his pernicious and outdated viewpoints recede from the editorial positions of his newspapers once he’s no longer in charge – functionally or otherwise.
But you don’t get to his position in life without being a wily operator.
Just Me @ 196, I suspect that The Australian will either be wound down post Rupert, or incorporated as a national interest section of the News Ltd state papers.
Lots of non conclusive stuff about Bayden-Clay I see much disregarding reasonable doubt. Re my fingernail comment earlier – yep nothing conclusive. A lecher, lair, adulterer who happens to be in financial strife does not necessarily mean he is a murderer. He may well be guilty as sin but with media self interest, possibly lazy cops solely investigating/targeting partners who knows. For example Edgar Cooke – google it if you not familiar. Mental illness is also non-conclusive and definitely not an exact science and two wrongs do not make a right. I think an appeal is likely imminent.
Back in March there were a couple of posts about Tony Abbott not becoming a priest because he lacked empathy:
I’m wondering if anyone has any links or sources for these claims?
caf @ 199, yes if we needed any more confirmation that Morrison is a fascist, that logo is it.
Clive is looking more & more like the blaggard so many PB’s predicted.
mikehilliard @ 206, yes it is disappointing, but not surprising
RE the Border Force logo or whatever crap name has been assigned to it by our equally crap guvmint, the designer is mortified that what would have been a thumbnail logo has been blown up to be a full size icon, totally out of perspective. Not only is Abbott devoid of all principle but also devoid of all artistic merit, he should have got Frances to knock up a design…. i’m thinkin big gun held to head of woman cradling child
I have not followed this murder case everyone keeps going on about — are there any political or societal implications?
Otherwise this sounds like a fait divers and the fascination is rather tabloid and ghoulish.
Violence against women is never ok, let the police and courts do their work and leave the speculation and what ifs to the Murdoch press.
[Phuong Ngo, who procured the assassination of the member for Cabramatta, John Newman, was undone by mobile phone tower evidence positioning his whereabouts – that was in September 1994]
So was Pablo Escobar in 1993.
The surveillance team had to drive around with antennae at random and hope they could triangulate the strength of his signal manually. It took them ages to actually get it right.
There’s a great book on it called Killing Pablo.
Back in March there were a couple of posts about Tony Abbott not becoming a priest because he lacked empathy:
He left the priesthood when he was told he couldn’t be Pope.
I well remember Joyce’s huffing and puffing during the Howard Government’s last term. So many things he was going to vote against, including workchoices.
One thing he did cross the floor on was voluntary student unionism. There was another I believe, which caught the Government off guard, but I cannot off the top of my head recall what it was.
The border security logo was reportedly designed by the dept for use by the former govt which thankfully seems to have had the good sense to veto it.
I think it’s highly implausible that the current Minister and his many advisors didn’t agree to it being used before it was put up for this press conference. So chalk that up to yet another misstep by the govt on boats.
Why they didn’t just let the portfolio just tick along with no fanfare is a complete mystery to me. Boats would’ve stopped, as they have, they could’ve claimed credit and wouldn’t have needed the megaphone diplomacy and farce of screaming orange lifeboats and Morrison looking foolish in the meantime.
davidwh@195
I agree comrade. I would not liked to have been on that jury.
matt31:
I only have a recollection of the Barnaby apoplectic roads to nowhere, seeing as they were so numerous. I have a vague memory of him arking up over voluntary student fees, but thought he got in line in the end for that one?
It really is sad that he is the best the Liberals have to offer.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/can-abbott-escape-the-trap-20140714-zt6mc.html
confessions
The guy who designed it said it was designed to be just an “icon” not a logo or poster , for which he says it is a “fail” .
[I agree comrade. I would not liked to have been on that jury.]
I wouldn’t want to be on a jury.
I can’t understand what is meant by “beyond reasonable doubt”. What is reasonable and what isn’t?
poroti:
It’s a definite fail. I’ve loved some of the twitter reaction to it. 😆
[What is reasonable and what isn’t?]
That which is based on reason?
poroti@217
Spot on, as a designer I know that a thumbnail like that blown up to a bigger size is just wrong.
[ What is reasonable and what isn’t?
That which is based on reason?]
Does that mean you need to be 90% sure? 99%? 99.99%? 100%?
caf
Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 8:10 pm | Permalink
I find in the Border Force logo a strange echo of Munch’s The Scream. Imagine the famous O mouth added to the blank face.
I’m sure many asylum seekers do scream when they see them coming…
It’d suck to be on jury duty. I’ve only ever been called up once and I got a medico to sign me off so I didn’t have to do it. If I got called up again for jury duty I’d do the same thing.
Diogs,
It means when you have to make a choice between two evils, you choose both.
AussieAchmed
not half as much as when they see a poster of this.
Reasonable doubt? There’s the old saying – it is better to let 12 guilty men go free than one innocent man hang. What about 13? It implies a probability of guilt at least 93%, but I think the standard is higher. It basically means that any scenario in which the defendant is innocent is completely implausible. I’ve been on a jury but it was dismissed before we had a chance to consider its verdict. It would not be easy to have to decide. Like most Australians, I thought Lindy Chamberlain was guilty, and like most Australians I was wrong.
But the jurors have to decide. There is no death penalty so there’ll be opportunities to appeal and review if warranted.
[Wouldn’t the Senate quota be lower in a DD as all Senators face the election]
The wasted quota is lower therefore the ALP surplus will be lower. The Greens can expect to lose two to four seats in a DD.
[feeney, where have you been?
Quota = (100 / (x+1)) + 1
where x = number of senators to be elected.]
and
William
[Yes, but since all Senators would be up for re-election, the Greens would need to make it to second quotas in four states out of six to maintain the status quo. Whereas the Greens can get two seats in a state by achieving 14.3% quotas at consecutive half-Senate elections, two quotas at a DD is 15.4%.
On current polling numbers, I could see the Greens winning maybe nine seats instead of their current 10, although Xenophon makes SA hard to call – at least under the present electoral system. Speaking of which, it seems the government is getting cold feet on reform]
In a DD The Greens would lose a seat in SA, Vic, QLD and WA
Yeah, unless they didn’t.
B.C. @ 204
The link seems down at the moment, but I think this story covers it.
http://sgp1.paddington.ninemsn.com.au/sunday/cover_stories/transcript_882.asp
Thus is primarily due to the Droop Wasted Quota which should be scrapped.
(x/y) pure proportional
not (x/(Y+1)-1). There is no justification that warrants the disproportional Droop quota with an electronic computerized count
Re Foreign Coprrespondent tonight
____________________________
A moving and rather terrible story from Laos of some poor women who work six days a week for about $10 a day gathering unexploded US anti-personal bombs dropped during the Indo China wars,,,Laos being the most bombed state on earth(20 million tons,,,80 million anti-person bonbs,most still scattered around)
..and the US has resisted paying anything but a fraction of the costs and gives little help to the many chilk victims who suffer loss of limbs etc
The Laotians still sek Washiongton’s aid but generally to no avail…any the USA needs its’ funds to bomb someone elsewhere ..and Lebanon has the same problem from Israel.with raids using US “gifts” of such bombs
a terrible storyu
[The Greens can expect to lose two to four seats in a DD.]
Four is unlikely. On current polling they’d get 2 in WA, and be close in Vic and SA. With any recovery in Tas they’d be close to 2 there as well. I think they’d be unlikely to fall short in all.
Diogenes@218
That tricks me too.
I would have easily found him guilty ‘on balance of probability’, but ‘beyond reasonable doubt’ is tough, particularly remembering cases like Lindy Chamberlain.
There is also the old dictum: ‘better 100 guilty men go free than one innocent man be convicted’.
That is why I would like to see clear cut evidence such as in the Meagher case.
In WA they will not win 2 quotaa. the LNP surplus also need to be taken into consideration. They will not win two in Victoria or SA, and only one in QLD but run the risk of losing that also.
The “reasonable” is an adjective qualifying any particular doubt.
It does not refer to reasonable surety ie 90%, 95%, 99% sure.
1) So if I doubt he’s guilty because he’s a professional real estate person the question is, is this a reasonable doubt.
2) Or if I doubt he’s guilty because he is clearly a loving father, is this a reasonable doubt.
3) Or if I doubt he is guilty because she also had a lover who she had split with recently, a known control freak with a history of proved violence to partners (put into evidence by the defence) despite strong circumstantial evidence against the accused, is this reasonable doubt.
It is up to each jury member to assess these doubts as reasonable or not, and if there is not 100% agreement, the accused walks.
Feel free to offer your views on the above doubts.
To me, only one is reasonable doubt.
236
Are your calculations based on the current ticket system, or the system that is almost certain to be introduced before the next election?
As a party that gets its own votes, rather than just preference harvesting, the change can help the Greens.
Napthine’s A-General is to address a Melb Conference organised by US anti-abortion groups , and groups favouring the repeal of laws that decriminilize homosexuality \
Bernie Finn a right-wing Lib MLC hardliner will be a key-note speaker,along with Minister Andrews
Curious for the Libs in election year ,especially re gay rights …an issue which might anger a fairly large group in the community
Deblonay
The Laos matter is a scandal of infinite proportions and heart wrenching ……. one plane load of cluster bombs on Laos every 8 minutes for 9 years. Several million yet to be found ….. 20K poor rural subsistence dwellers, mainly kids, killed by the cluster bombs since the war.
And the Yanks have given a miserly $2 mill PA for clean up, which has to be argued for by lobbyists each year.
The clean up at current rate will take another 200 years.
What interested me also is that Yank punters have know idea of this, the Congress had disapproved the bombing but CIA types carried on (the secret war), and USA still refuses to agree to banning cluster bombs.
Our No 1 best friends.
se re that Conf on post 239 re gay rights and abortion
__________
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/state-attorneygeneral-robert-clark-to-address-hardline-prolife-event-20140715-ztdii.html
[Are your calculations based on the current ticket system, or the system that is almost certain to be introduced before the next election?]
Or maybe not:
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-14/senate-election-reforms-quietly-shelved-by-government/5594436
https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24425689/senate-voting-reforms-in-doubt/
I’d be interested to know how much this is to do with a desire to keep the cross-benchers sweet, and how much to right-wing journalists marshalling their forces against the notion:
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/business/clive-palmer-better-than-christine-milne/story-fni0d8gi-1226980976087
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/dont_reform_the_senate_do_you_really_want_the_greens_not_palmer/
[They will not win two in Victoria or SA]
Unless, as William says, they do.
You can’t possibly be categorical. If the voting at this hypothetical election returns to 2010-like figures then the Greens would win two in Vic easily. There’s no way of saying for sure whether such a DD would be the same as 2013 for the Greens, worse or better.
psyclaw
Some people would view a doubt as reasonable when another would view it as unreasonable.
For eg, if the human race was in the dock for causing AGW, would there be a reasonable doubt that be were warming the planet?
I think most reasonable people would say we were but some reasonable people would say there is reasonable doubt.
Psyclaw 240
re our friends
_________
If the US is our best friend , where do the neofascist Japs clustered around PM Abe in Japan stand in the order of succession
The thing about the law (as in life) that you ultimately can’t break down words any more and you have to rely upon intuition. What’s the point of expressing a “reasonable doubt” in percentage terms? What’s the point of overdefining it.
Interestingly, the whole concept of “reasonable doubt” in English criminal law did not arise to protect the innocent from wrongful conviction, but to protect those who judge (ie judges and juries) from falsely convicting and thereby damning their souls.
http://www.amazon.com/The-Origins-Reasonable-Doubt-Theological/dp/0300116004
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/dont_reform_the_senate_do_you_really_want_the_greens_not_palmer/
So Bolt is a Palmer convert now he’s redeemed himself by helping the govt get rid of carbon pricing?
Such a shock.
[As a party that gets its own votes, rather than just preference harvesting, the change can help the Greens.]
The change would presumably mean leakage from any distributed ALP surplus away from the Greens and that would hurt. But the elimination of snowballing from minor parties would mean that the value of primaries was enhanced would help. It would be harder for a candidate close to quota to be pegged back.
In an emotional interview with Sir Michael Parkinson, Tony Abbott has “come out”.
Tony Abbott comes out.
Abbott speech live on 24 talking about the australian ….. ” fair, unbiased, objective, presents all sides …. ”
Lies! Vomit!