The latest fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has the Coalition down a point on the primary vote to 38%, but is in all other respects unchanged on last week with Labor on 40%, the Greens on 9%, Palmer United on 6% and two-party preferred at 53-47 in favour of Labor. Other questions:
• Thirty-seven per cent of respondents said they trusted financial planners to provide independent and appropriate advice versus 49% with little or no trust, and 73% a royal commission into banks and financial planning with only 11% opposed.
• On coal seam gas mining, 22% want a complete ban, 32% want restrictions on farm land, and only 12% think current regulation sufficient.
• The existing renewable energy target is supported by 36% of respondents, with 29% thinking it too low and only 13% too high.
• Fifty-two per cent approve of Australia having closer defence links with Japan, versus 18% who disapprove. Five per cent rate relations with Japan more important than China versus 15% for vice-versa, while 62% rate them as equally important.
A quick run through the other polling of the past few days:
• Newspoll in The Australian had Labor leading 54-46, down from 55-45 a fortnight ago, from primary votes of 36% for the Coalition (up one), 37% for Labor (steady) and 11% for the Greens (down two).
• Roy Morgan’s fortnightly result had the Coalition down one to 34%, Labor up two to 38.5%, the Greens down half a point to 11.5%, and Palmer United up half a point to 7.5%. Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44 using preference flows from the previous election, but the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, with Labor’s lead down from 57.5-42.5 to 56.5-43.5.
• The National Tertiary Education Union published UMR Research robo-polling of 23 marginal electorates showing Labor set to clean up in the lot, including Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt. Kevin Bonham has his doubts.
William this is NOT an appropriate forum to discuss such legal matters.
I am sure you will agree.
Steven Grant Haby@151
Yes, I vote for banning any discussion of lawmaking institutions and the means by which they are elected.
The case is over. It is not sub-judice or anything.
Re Psyclaw @137: He was describing what will be both parties’ policies and speaking as though the election was in a couple of months time.
All Abbott ministers seem to talk in election slogans. They carry on as if they are still an opposition campaigning in 2013, let alone 2016. They are making minimal attempt to sell their program on its merits (maybe because there are none?). They define everything in opposition to the previous government. Their so-called reforns are to fix a concocted ‘budget emergency’. They have no positive story to tell.
I don’t really Steven, provided the matter is not sub judice. If something’s all over the news, there’s not much to be achieved by banning discussion of it here.
Jimmy
Ashtonfield for me.
Regarding WA seats, Labor has 3 (I think) out of the 15 so even on a massive turnaround they could win maybe another 5 or 6.
But as I think you were pointing out, for that to happen one would expect similar shifts in all places east of WA so the chance of Labor declaring victory before the WA count is done would be high and the WA wins would be mere cream.
In a close election it would naturally be otherwise.
Well, well. What a surprise. Not.
[The Government has struck a deal with the Palmer United Party to largely retain new rules on financial advice, blocking an Opposition bid to change the laws.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-15/coalition-strikes-deal-with-pup-on-financial-advice-laws/5598738
As for Cormann’s statement that the former govt’s laws went too far? Honestly, talk about hyperbole.
[Can we please cease and desist with the commentary regarding the Baden-Clay case.]
No
[It is not appropriate to speculate at this point in time as to what / if / anything / did / occur / happen]
Why not? At what point does it become appropriate in your opinion? The matter is no longer sub judice. The jury has delivered a unanimous verdict.
[This is from a friend of mine who is associated with this issue.]
Tough
Steve777:
If you listen to many US Republicans they deploy the same overly simplistic, sloganistic, jingoistic way of speaking. It’s like they’re all cut from the same cloth.
I escape to my computer & PB to get away from wall to wall Baden Clay only to find the infection has spread. Doomed.
The Baden Clay murder is a bit like something out of Midsomer murders. Brookfield is as close to a village as you can get. Nice area, not far from me.
In my view Pyne has made the next campaign.
Carbon tax or education out of the reach of you, your children or grand children; your choice.
Re Zoidlord @140: what’s that boofhead doing anywhere near education, let alone making recommendations on education policy. A thug like Abbott.
dtt
I did a tour of some of the Midsomer Murder locations last year. It’s a beautiful area. It’s partly the contrast between the lovely towns and the hidden evil that makes it work as a series.
psyclaw @ 148
Plus, Rupert isn’t going to be here forever, and without him they are farked.
(Old Rupe is not only looking increasingly physically frail but also sounding increasingly scatty, so he might be here in body for a while yet, but possibly not in mind.
Though, putting on the cynical hat, it may be, in part at least, an act to help him avoid extradition proceedings if the legal waters get any hotter for him in certain jurisdictions.)
[It is not appropriate to speculate at this point in time as to what / if / anything / did / occur / happen
]
He has just been convicted it is the perfect time to discuss.
Cormann
[In particular we thank Mr Palmer as the Leader of the Palmer United Party and Palmer United Party senators, the Australian Motoring Enthusiasts Party and Senators David Leyonhjelm and Bob Day for their support for our FOFA improvements.]
Driving the X/Madigan group tighter, they just need one more for a blocking triumvirate to tackle Clive, Lion Head is my bet, BoB Day is more L/NP than Abbott he has impeccable HR Nicholl’s credentials.
Interesting Baden-Clay was sentenced straight away.
Seems to suggest that nothing was said to mitigate penalty (could be nothing to say) and the defence was happy to have it all over with
Just Me@164
I want to see a couple of NSWs finest rock up to his big nosh up,serve a warrant for his extradition to the UK or USA, and drag him out to the paddy waggon in front of all his guests.
Evil bastard.
[If Labor and the LNP want to reform the Senate voting, the time to do it is just before the next election so they minimise the damage the micros can do by going feral.]
It would be typical for ALP,LNP tp combine to prevent any opposition.
It is particularly ironic when both parties pretend to advocate super contest in every other field.
corrupt, corrupt, corrupt.
More important is to bring in a more democratic electoral system in the HoR.
[Plus, Rupert isn’t going to be here forever, and without him they are farked.]
People like to say this about Rupe, and it may well be the case. But to me he seems to have installed senior managers and executives across his various interests who appear to share his own scary nuff nuff views on society.
ruawake@166
Muir is another possibility.
BTW, my eyes are most perceptive – they notify my brain that I have seen ‘Conman’ instead of ‘Cormann’.
shellbell@167
Explained as automatic sentencing in Qld.
swamprat@169
Thank you for illustrating my point. 😀
Phuong Ngo, who procured the assassination of the member for Cabramatta, John Newman, was undone by mobile phone tower evidence positioning his whereabouts – that was in September 1994
[ Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 18m
Same Barnaby 2005-7. MT @lenoretaylor The Palmer pattern: cause maximum drama then support government http://gu.com/p/4vx5x/tw ]
Yes, Barnaby during the Howard govt’s last term did the same thing.
[Muir is another possibility]
Yep, I agree. X and Madigan will be trying to get a Palmer like blocking vote with all their little hearts can pump out.
shellbell@174
IIRC there were some doubts raised about that evidence.
But in the Jill Meagher case it was absolutely irrefutable and damning.
bemused
A pleasing thought.
I did suggest before the election that one reason Rupe is so keen on a hard right Oz government in his thrall, at this time, is that the rest of the Anglosphere is not too safe for him any more. If he can keep Tones, or similar, in for a few years he will be old enough to avoid extradition on the grounds of old age infirmity.
bemused
Lionhead is uber against red tape of any sort let alone adding more so, depending on what Clive’s deal really means, he could well be the one.
Murdoch’s big celebration of Oz’ 50 years is tonight. Abbott and Pearson are scheduled to speak. Presumably Palmer is not invited.
Just hope Satan post clips on Youtube, don’t want to miss whats coming to Murdoch.
[IIRC there were some doubts raised about that evidence.]
Yes mainly by academics which prompted an inquiry which squashed the doubts.
Bemused
[Explained as automatic sentencing in Qld.]
Well there is a mandatory sentence of life but some scope for the minimum sentence to be served.
Having said that, little was capable of being said on his behalf.
Plus, Rupert isn’t going to be here forever, and without him they are farked.
I don’t know. Maybe when the Grim Reaper calls, he’ll say “here’s $100 million. Now bugger off”. Or maybe he’ll regenerate like Dr Who. Or use technology to keep going indefinitely, like Dr Who’ nemisis Davros. Or maybe he’s immortal, like Sauron.
[Murdoch’s big celebration of Oz’ 50 years is tonight. ]
You mean after all the fuss and carry on and song and dance of the last 6 months it still hasn’t frickin happened?
*slow blinks*
The believability of the $550. The figure, which Abbott uses on every possible occasion, is based on Treasury modeling. About half the amount is from taking the tax off power prices – it is easy to measure the impact that will have.
The rest is from the flow through to items such as food, clothing, housing, household appliances, and holiday travel.
Problem; Some large companies in the airline (Qantas) and supermarket (Woolworths) sectors have claimed they absorbed the carbon price without passing it onto consumers, so they don’t intend to pass on its demise.
ruawake@77
There will be no reason to disallow them. Cormann’s regulations that failed to be disallowed today have watered FoFA down, but Palmer’s changes strengthen it (or do nothing at worst). With the coalition on board, nobody has a reason to weaken the laws by disallowing Palmer’s changes. The only way FoFA can be stronger now is for Palmer to change his mind and disallow Cormann’s changes before 90 days are up.
Shellbell
Ditto for Milal Skaff …. the rapist who got 55 years.
Victim was abducted on Sydney North Shore and he lined up colleagues in Western suburbs to join in gang rape, whilst driving back with victim.
Was tracked all the way, tower to tower. Was powerful lead for cops and good evidence per se.
[IIRC there were some doubts raised about that evidence.
But in the Jill Meagher case it was absolutely irrefutable and damning.]
I tell my wife that we ought leave one of our phones on the table at night so that if we are burgled they will take a fancy looking phone as well.
We can then track them as standard tracking software now.
The phone will also take and email an immediate photo and its location if the phone is turned off.
Will take and email a photo on three unsuccessful attempts to unlock the phone.
Email us its new phone number should they change the sim card.
Will email its location as the last thing it does before its battery goes flat.
Plus the usual wipe, lock, scream, locate features that are common now days.
This gives a good chance to catch your burglar.
tricot:
Good to see you again. I’d wondered what had happened to you – not like you to miss parliamentary sessions.
Also can silently text the phone to get it to call you back, and quietly listen the conversation going in the room.
90 days is plenty of time for a completely dumb and arrogant Abbott to upset Palmer.
Psyclaw, practically neighbours!
Circumstantial cases can give rise to errors in the way judges direct juries to think about their decision because juries will ask more questions, are more likely to be deadlocked etc.
Jean Gassy, who murdered Dr Margaret Tobin in Adelaide in October 2002, convinced the High Court, having represented himself, that the judge gave one-sided directions to a deadlocked jury which lead them to convict.
No doubt buoyed by his success in the High Court, Gassy defended himself at the new trial whereupon he was convicted afresh, this time legally correctly.
The Baydon-Clay case was one of those situations where your gut said he was guilty but there was concern that the lack of physical evidence mean there could be room for doubt. Those jurors had a very tough task and my hat goes off to them.
[People like to say this about Rupe, and it may well be the case. But to me he seems to have installed senior managers and executives across his various interests who appear to share his own scary nuff nuff views on society.]
Fair point. No doubt he has given serious thought to this, and we should not underestimate him.
But I suspect that once he is gone the influence of his style and brand will quickly start to diminish. He has been exposed for what he really is, and made a lot of enemies, including among his shareholders. At the very least I would expect a massive pruning of those infamously non-performing indulgences like The Oz, and generally putting some distance between his problematic legacy and their more strictly commercial post-Rupert interests.
Steve777 @ 184 or perhaps Murdoch’s life will be preserved as a head in a jar like in Futurama.
For those like me who didn’t get to see the weekend’s supermoon because of cloudy conditions, the BoM has posted around 60-odd photos sent in from followers around Australia of pics they took. Most of them are absolutely stunning.
Part 1:
https://www.facebook.com/bureauofmeteorology/photos/a.750072555056647.1073741919.170992086298033/750074868389749/?type=1&theater
Part 2:
https://www.facebook.com/bureauofmeteorology/photos/a.750710394992863.1073741920.170992086298033/750710658326170/?type=1&theater
(Note that some are copyright)
I find in the Border Force logo a strange echo of Munch’s The Scream. Imagine the famous O mouth added to the blank face.
Putting the “Supermoon” into perspective:
http://xkcd.com/1394/