Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The latest fortnightly Newspoll finds majority support for repeal of the carbon tax, but otherwise brings the Abbott government little cheer.

The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.

Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.

UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.

UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.

UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

986 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

  1. So, the cross benchers don’t trust Abbott, and want to see him keep his side of the deal before repealing the carbon price…

  2. @Peter/950

    I doubt it, if the boots of the ADF are being outsourced to Indonesia, what you think they be using an Australian artisan?

  3. I see that Bishop has created 1.4 billion enemies with some of the most efficient diplomacy we have seen from an Australian foreign minister in many a long year.

  4. [A vote on the carbon tax repeal bills will have to wait until the Senate debates the repeal of the mining tax, abolition of the Climate Change Authority and establishment of the Asset Recycling Fund.]

    It seems that the repeal of the CT is not going to be voted on until after Clive’s $0 ETS gets debated. Another twist in the story?

  5. Good question:

    Stephen Koukoulas ‏@TheKouk 2m

    How can Pyne work out savings to schools from abolition of carbon price but not for basic groceries? #qt #imakethisshitup

    Are they expanding GST to foods?

  6. [zoidlord
    Posted Tuesday, July 15, 2014 at 2:49 pm | Permalink

    @Peter/950

    I doubt it, if the boots of the ADF are being outsourced to Indonesia, what you think they be using an Australian artisan?]

    Not a problem: apparently the Indonesians have some sort of 745 scheme to employ cheap Australian labor.

  7. The Army’s dress boots are now made and supplied by RM Williams. The soldiers have their feet individually measured before the boots’ supply.
    The previously supplied Chines boots would fall apart during parades on hot days.

  8. I suspect Abbott hasn’t bothered to adjust the other legislation to honour his side of the smelly deal, and the cross benchers have told him where to go, for now at least.

  9. zoidlord @ 952

    [I doubt it, if the boots of the ADF are being outsourced to Indonesia, what you think they be using an Australian artisan?]

    As an Adelaidian, that may well spell the end of Rossi as an iconic local shoe manufacturer. These a*sholes can’t help themselves.

  10. BK@959

    The Army’s dress boots are now made and supplied by RM Williams. The soldiers have their feet individually measured before the boots’ supply.
    The previously supplied Chines boots would fall apart during parades on hot days.

    I wonder if the cost comparisons factored in the tax that would be paid by Rossi and their employees vs no tax paid to the ATO by an Indonesian company and its workers?

    This seems to me to be quite a valid matter to consider in evaluating tenders.

  11. Now Robb having a shouting match on the carbon tax…

    I’m switching channels, I want to enjoy my coffee with a cup cake/strawb icing 😀

  12. bemused
    I was out at RM WIlliams’ factory early this year and was told that the Army is delighted with the product AND SERVICE they are getting.
    As for DMO I reckon purchase price alone would be the deterrminant.

  13. Watching Robb I again wonder what it must do to the soul to, as a job, repeatedly stand up and tell what you must know are the most blatant of lies.

  14. Centre@967

    Now Robb having a shouting match on the carbon tax…

    I’m switching channels, I want to enjoy my coffee with a cup cake/strawb icing

    You can hop over to the Senate and listen to Senator Abetz.

  15. ICYMI

    “@WilliamJHague: Tonight I am standing down as Foreign Secretary after 4 years to serve as Leader of the House of Commons”

    “@WilliamJHague: I will not stand as an MP in the May 2015 General Election, after 26 years as an MP”

  16. The Fact Check Truzzz bored us with was on a very particular and single point.

    [return of old-style commissions for financial advisers]

  17. BK@968

    bemused
    I was out at RM WIlliams’ factory early this year and was told that the Army is delighted with the product AND SERVICE they are getting.
    As for DMO I reckon purchase price alone would be the deterrminant.

    I hate these purchasing procedures which are simply a quest to see who can provide the least for the least amount of money while appearing to meet requirements.

  18. guytaur

    A dozen ministers have been given the royal order of the boot by “Dave” .Apparently old white guys feature very prominently on the list.

  19. [In clinical trials and public use, there have been cases where antidepressant users have thought about, attempted or committed suicide]

    Just like depressed people do!

    drugwatch.com is a front for a large American legal firm, The Peterson Firm, whose main business is running class actions against pharmaceutical companies.

    Claims that antidepressants, particularly SSRIs cause people to kill themselves aren’t supported by the evidence. If they were a significant cause of suicide then rates should have begun to climb dramatically after these drugs became available in the late 1980s. Instead they have either fallen or remained the same. When the FDA issued a blackbox warning about antidepressants and suicidality in those under 25, many American doctors stopped prescribing them. The suicide rate among that age group subsequently began to rise after decades of steady declines.

    Another promoter of the antidepressant violent death/suicide claims are the NRA desperate to divert responsibility for the horrendous gun carnage. The Church of Scientology through its Citizens Commission on Human Rights arm also campaign hard against antidepressants and other psych drugs too as they impact on its business model.

  20. Re Murdoch’s power
    _______________
    While I agree with all the comments on The Monster,I suspect that we will have to wait,hopefully, on the Angel of Death to solve the problem
    and that may happen…..none of his children have the same drive or stature as Rupert Murdoch…and perhaps like the Packers none of the offspring had much time or talent for the politics beloved of father /.grandfather…and the present head honcho seems more interested in his gambling/casino empire .which keeps him out of politics…His grandfather and father both lived for the power that media moguls often enjoy and wield…like Black and Maxwell( in the UK…who robbed his staff super funds before his strange death,which saw him get a state funeral in Israel… which fueled ideas that he was a key Israeli agent)

    . in the UK/US and in more distant times ,men like McCormack in Chicago and Beverbrook in Canada and the UK
    exerted great political power on the right…perhaps those days are passing and Murdoch is an last of the old dinasaurs

  21. I understand from a friend who lives in Adelaise the “boots” issue has been big on the media there ,and it has been here too
    in a way such small issues are something many peole can handle better than big ones…but all bad news for Abbott

  22. bemused @ 695

    re the tax thing … I have a friend whose old man worked in the ATO. When a particular soft drink manufacturer wanted to open a factory in Australia and receive substantial tax benefits/incentives to do so they used the income generated by the factory and the tax paid by workers as a reason for their claim. They said they’d get better results overseas – ie cheaper production but were prepared to open the factory here if they got tax concessions.

    The govt’ agreed’ much’ to old mate’s dad’s unhappiness’.

  23. bemused

    Baden-Clay switched connected his mobile phone to his charger at 2am (evidently your phone records that), four hours after he said he went to sleep.

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