The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.
Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.
UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.
UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,
Player One@591
You fail to acknowledge the connection between the two.
zoomster
Seriously do not make categorical statements that the Greens would not negotiate. Say on a CPRS target or whatever.
Also proven to be wrong in hindsight btw as the carbon price we got proves
2nd excuse …… Info helps the smugglers.
Pickering eviscerates that one.
Jones helps Pickering.
Ah Psyclaw, there’s the Ruddock you were talking about. What a reptile.
Plibersek tells avuncular Phil he’s illogical and disrespectful of voters.
The Liberals did more to help people smugglers than putting up a billboard. The blocked the Malaysia solution and failed to support the Expert Committee because they wanted to ensure that the boats would keep on coming up until the election. The wanted racist bogans to vote for neoliberal economic programs. After all, they had no hope of selling their real agenda.
One: what’s to bet that Ruddock take over the immigration portfolio when Morrison invevitably is “moved on” (i.e. prosecuted for war crimes)?
Two: Labor should initiate a Royal Commission into Operation Sovereign Borders… of course they won’t as they are hopelessly compromised on this issue.
Ruddock stumbles on all the info Abbott’s billboard when LOTO gave the smugglers!
And now FFS “Indo govt unhappy to work with previous government.
[The Liberals did more to help people smugglers than putting up a billboard. The blocked the Malaysia solution and failed to support the Expert Committee because they wanted to ensure that the boats would keep on coming up until the election.]
Worse, they engaged in megaphone diplomacy once in govt, instead of just quietly letting Labor’s policies take effect and claiming credit for stopping boats.
bemused@601
You fail to acknowledge the connection between the two.
Domestic violence is not caused by mental illness, as you seem to believe. Nor is mental illness an excuse for it, or a reason to tolerate it.
Jimmy
🙂
Ah!
Ruddock ends with “the refugee queue”
That was a fairly moderate Q&A. No one that makes me want to smash my screen.
P1
Violence, including domestic, is sometimes caused by mental illness but most people with mental illnesses are not violent. Once drugs and alcohol are thrown into the mix, compliance with medication worsens and violence becomes much more likely.
Bemused 554 agree wholeheartedly that the Royal Commission is good thing. I hope it will seriously addresses the obsession with an individual’s privacy that bedevils much of human services and the law.
Privacy is an important right but it should never trump the right to safety of others.
Bemused at 573, that made me chuckle. His, and Abbott’s, behaviour strikes me as so ironic when they profess themselves as Christians. I’d love to be at the Pearly Gates when Morrison has to explain to St Peter that handing back Sri Lankans back to a murderous government was to prevent their loss of life at sea.
Player One@610
You fail to acknowledge the connection between the two.
Domestic violence is not caused by mental illness, as you seem to believe. Nor is mental illness an excuse for it, or a reason to tolerate it.
I am not saying it is in all cases.
But in this case there is a large body of evidence pointing to him having a serious mental illness with the capacity to make him violent.
Other factors behind cases of domestic violence include drugs, alcohol and yes, in some cases just plain viciousness.
Does Gurrumal ever sing in English.
Would love to hear his version of Hallelujah.
zoom
[ah, so as I thought, you’re not very familiar with the events of the time.]
If you insist. I was observing all this from the outside. If that’s not familiar enough for my comments be assessesed valid – if that is indeed what you’re implying – so be it.
Consider reports this (from Mordor), June 2010: http://www.theaustralian.com.au/archive/politics/greens-leader-bob-brown-hasnt-been-able-to-meet-kevin-rudd-since-april-last-year/story-e6frgczf-1225881639580
And as for what the Greens wanted, this from the ABC (http://www.abc.net.au/elections/federal/2010/policies/):
[Committed to implementing a market based reduction scheme as soon as possible]
[I’m not saying – at all – that the Greens shouldn’t have been included in the conversation, or that Rudd shouldn’t have invited Bob Brown around for tea and bikkies.]
I agree you didn’t say that. It is *my* proposition that Labor’s asssessment of who or who not to include has been too narrow.
[But in the context of the time, this would have been mere window dressing.]
Again, in hindsight (and to belabour the point :P) obviously not.
[The Greens were, in fact, very intransigent.]
They were indeed. They were largely irrelevant and they knew it.
Here both major parties and the greens went to an election with the same policy. All three were trying to point score and differentiate in painful and pointless ways. Rudd wasn’t trying to wedge Turnbull anymore than Turnbull was trying to get him, and the Greens found themselves trying to get both liberal and labor. Just to do so they had to shoot the CPRS which in an honest world they had more interest in than either of the others. But no they were just like the others playing games. The games failed.
[Morrison is Ruddock’s successor]
Bride of Frankenstein
Diogenes@614
Absolutely. It is the casual acceptance of domestic violence that we should not tolerate. This is far and away a bigger contributing factor to such tragedies than mental illness, and also far simpler to address.
Simply putting the blame on “mental illness” and wringing your hands about it is completely missing the point.
Deliberately in some cases, I suspect.
Again stuffed up quoting. Middle contains a quote from the article followed by a quote from you.
Steve777 @ 606 – that’s what gets me. Why did Abbott piss away his advantage with the rednecks by attacking everything they hold dear about the welfare net? It boggles my mind.
There is a very complicated chicken and egg problem with untangling violence with respect to four inter-related problems; personality type, mental illness, substance (incl alcohol) abuse and compliance.
WWP
[They were indeed. They were largely irrelevant and they knew it.]
My current point is that clearly – with hindsight – they weren’t irrelevant enough :P.
P1
I agree that substance abuse, esp alcohol, is waaaaay more important a cause of domestic violence than mental illness.
Plibersek demonstrated the same calm, rational and adult (LOL) behaviour that Shorten has been projecting over the last little while. Shame Pyne wasn’t there to make the contrast a little more explicit.
Diogenes@614
Did you see the 4C program?
Among other things, Greg Anderson spent several period in, of all places, a Russian Orthodox Monastery.
They noticed his erratic behaviour including on one occasion at the meal table, seeing worms coming out of the liver of the person seated next to him and attacking him.
And yet he was only ever taken to a hospital on one occasion for an assessment and nothing came of that. I presume, as is usually the case, the assessment was quite perfunctory, and carried out by someone with the intelligence of an indoor plant.
Yes, most mentally ill people are neither violent or dangerous. But some are, particularly if they have a serious psychotic disorder that is untreated. This appears to be such a case.
And there were drugs involved as he had a history of excessive marijuana use. Who knows what other substances he might have tried in an attempt to self medicate?
And for the record (again) I agree the Greens appeared to have some amount of pride at stake.
Just in case someone thinks I’m trying to make excuses for them :P.
A cross bench senator is on Lateline to explain his opinion of the government’s negotiating skills. Senator Madigan
JimmyDoyle@616
Perhaps my sole regret at not being a believer is that I don’t believe there is a hell.
I wish I did as I would find great solace in the thought of people like Morrison, Murdoch and Abbott ending up there.
Photo on ABC just now after House passed the repeal.
Hunt and Abbott leaning towards each other, heads 30cm apart, and Hunt winks at Abbott
[A cross bench senator is on Lateline to explain his opinion of the government’s negotiating skills. Senator Madigan]
REally? This is the most limelight the Senator’s had since being elected!
bemused
I’m not disagreeing with that at all.
You know my position on how disgraceful our mental health system is for a first world country. And it costs lives, much more commonly of the patients themselves but occasionally of others (including their doctors sometimes).
Bemused – the problem with imagining Murdoch in hell is that he’d no doubt happily establish himself as Satan’s right-hand man, and secretly plot a takeover. Or something equally as ridiculous.
Psyclaw – why are they winking?? It’s not like passage in the house was in doubt!
http://boingboing.net/2014/07/14/unions-considered-helpful-eco.html
Diogenes@635
I am influenced in my views by first hand observation and by what I have read by Dr E. Fuller Torrey of the “Treatment Advocacy Center” in the US and closer to home what some like Dr Jean Lennane have written.
bemused
[ Yes, most mentally ill people are neither violent or dangerous. But some are, particularly if they have a serious psychotic disorder that is untreated. This appears to be such a case.
And there were drugs involved as he had a history of excessive marijuana use. Who knows what other substances he might have tried in an attempt to self medicate? ]
Luke Batty died because his father was a violent man.
Everything else is just supposition and hearsay.
Remove the tacit acceptance of domestic violence – or worse, the pathetic excuses for it that so many seem to be willing to trot out – and the problem would be a long way to being solved.
JimmyDoyle@636
Perhaps he would be too evil even for Satan and get thrown out.
Goodnight.
Player One@640
You are a complete grub if you think I accept domestic violence. I don’t.
I don’t accept any criminal behaviour.
But neither do I accept simplistic explanations such as some people are just evil.
In a lot of cases there are underlying circumstances which, if addressed, can prevent it.
John Madigan on Lateline on dealing with the government
bemused @ 641: The thought of Mr Murdoch in hell and Mr Morrison in heaven with all the happy clappers is enough to make one want to opt for purgatory.
[You know my position on how disgraceful our mental health system is for a first world country. And it costs lives, much more commonly of the patients themselves but occasionally of others (including their doctors sometimes).]
Yes the very very good intentioned move of people out of poor institutional care was meant to have them move into much better, much more caring much more loving care in the community. Having them not cared for at all was never the plan but what we have done.
Re Jimmy Doyle @624: this Government serves its mates in the Big End of town. Now that they’ve shown their hand, they are trying to slip their program in under cover of the ‘budget emergency’ that no credible economic commentator believes exists. And no doubt the dog whistle will get a work out many times before the next election to persuade a critical few to vote against their interests.
Good night all.
One thing that can be said in favour of Senator Madigan is that he takes a keen and constructive interest in the welfare of our neighbours in East Timor, who at various times have been sadly let down by both the major parties.
In that context, it’s perhaps not surprising that it’s been reported today that the government has shelved, at least for the time being, changes to the Senate voting system. If the crossbenchers manage to kybosh the worst features of the first Hockey budget, my guess is that they will go into the next election with a fair bit to their credit.
bemused
[ You are a complete grub if you think I accept domestic violence. I don’t. ]
Accept it? I have no idea whether you do or not. But you do seem quite keen on excusing it.
[ In a lot of cases there are underlying circumstances which, if addressed, can prevent it. ]
And in a lot of cases there are not. Or at least none that are evident beforehand.
The best solution is to simply teach that people – especially young men – that violence is never an acceptable solution.
Raaraa@644
For a DLP person, Madigan is not too bad. In fact, he is probably better than Joe Bullock.