The Australian has come good with Newspoll a day earlier than we have recently been accustomed, and it has Labor’s two-party lead at 54-46 after an above-trend 55-45 result a fortnight ago. The primary vote has the Coalition up a point to 36%, Labor steady on 37% and the Greens down two to 11%. Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten are both unchanged on approval at 31% and 34% respectively, but Abbott is down two points on disapproval to 60% while Shorten is up two to 43%. The poll also finds 53% want the carbon tax repealed, versus 35% who want it retained. Preferred prime minister ratings to follow shortly (UPDATE: Abbott narrows the gap from 44-34 to 41-36). Hat-tip: GhostWhoVotes.
Also worth noting that the Courier-Mail is unrolling Galaxy results from the Queensland state seats of Pumicestone, Gaven, Hervey Bay and Maroochydore, which I presume to be automated phone polls from samples of about 550. The only numbers available at this point are for Pumicestone, where the Liberal National Party is credited with at 52-48 lead in a seat it holds on a margin of 12.1%. Primary votes are 41% for the LNP, 37% for Labor and 13% for Palmer United. More to follow here presumably as well.
UPDATE (Galaxy Queensland electorate polls: Queensland poll results from the Courier-Mail here, showing the LNP leading 56-44 in Gaven, 54-46 in Hervey Bay and 58-42 in Maroochydore, for respective swings of 13.1%, 17.7% and 12.9%. Pumicestone was in Labor’s hands prior to the 2012 election, Gaven and Hervey Bay were gained by the LNP in 2009, and Maroochydore has consistently been conservative. The current member for Gaven is Alex Douglas, who since the last election has thrown his lot in with Palmer United. The poll result is not encouraging for him, showing Palmer United third placed in Gaven with 21% to 40% for the LNP and 29% for Labor.
UPDATE 2 (UMR Research electorate polls): Mark Kenny of the Sydney Morning Herald also relates results from robo-polling conducted for the National Tertiary Education Union by UMR Research, chiefly noted as Labor’s internal pollster, encompassing 23,176 respondents over 23 electorates. The overall picture of a double-digit swing to Labor is hard to credit, but it is nonetheless interesting to learn of a particularly heavy swing against Christopher Pyne in his Adelaide seat of Sturt, and that the best net approval ratings of the incumbents in the electorates polled were recorded by Darren Chester (Nationals, Gippsland), Alannah MacTiernan (Labor, Perth), Kate Ellis (Labor, Adelaide), Anna Burke (Labor, Chisholm) and Matt Thistlethwaite (Labor, Kingsford Smith). FURTHER UPDATE: The NTEU has published the full set of results here, and they show Labor ahead in every single electorate targeted, including such unlikely prospects as Dunkley and Gippsland.
UPDATE 3 (Morgan): This fortnight’s Morgan result, combining its last two weekends of face-to-face and SMS polling, has the Coalition losing further ground with a one point drop on the primary vote to 34% and a two point increase for Labor to 38.5%, while the Greens and Palmer United are respectively down and up half a point, to 11.5% and 7.5%. Using preference flows from the previous election, Labor’s lead is up from 54.5-45.5 to 56-44. However, the Coalition gains slightly on respondent-allocated two-party preferred, on which it now trails 56.5-43.5 rather than 57.5-42.5,
I don’t think it is correct at all to say that alcohol causes DV although it may be a common concomitant.
The number of men pissed each night would far outweigh the incidence of DV.
And I think mental illness per se is not particularly causative although it too might be concomitant in particular cases ….. in Luke’s case the fact that the father could calmly state an intention to make the mother suffer for the rest of her life indicates rational intent; he may have been depressed as well as having violent, vengeful intent.
A common condition when DV occurs is that the offender has deep feelings of inadequacy and vulnerability leading to a need to exert power and control. In other words there are complex psychological factors at play.
The reasons for each offender ending up with the consequent behaviour patterns are complex and specific to each one’s life experiences.
Very many cases of DV are perpetrated by educated, middle and upper class, otherwise successful and adjusted men who cannot form a trusting, intimate relationship.
This is of course a general perspective and plentiful exceptions will prove the rule.
@psyclaw/612
I spot another 3 word queue!
PlayerOne @ 649 – Comprehensive sex and relationship education would solve a lot of problems when it comes to issues such as domestic violence and sexual assault.
Player One@649
Had the Police and Mental Health System worked as they should, Greg Anderson would have either been an involuntary patient or, after a period of time as an involuntary patient, released on a community treatment order with his compliance on medication monitored.
He would then have been far less likely to offend.
Jimmy
Re the wink
Secret conservo men’s business.
My life would be in danger if I disclosed it on PB! 🙂
bemused
[ Had the Police and Mental Health System worked as they should, Greg Anderson would have either been an involuntary patient or, after a period of time as an involuntary patient, released on a community treatment order with his compliance on medication monitored.
He would then have been far less likely to offend. ]
And had Greg Anderson been less inclined to use violence as a solution to his woes (which he had a history of doing) Luke would be alive today regardless of the mental state of his father, or whether or not the police or mental health professionals managed to make a correct “on the fly” diagnosis of his mental state.
Luke died because his father saw violence as a means of retribution.
Going further on my point at 653, we expect men, especially young men, to learn by osmosis they do not have a right to sex. Further, we have a society that teaches men that it is not ok to confront one’s feelings. Instead they learn to repress and thus lash out. It doesn’t surprise me that many turn to alcohol or other drugs. It doesn’t surprise me that some experience mental illness. Perhaps things are getting better, but this is one area where the education system could improve the situation in a concrete manner.
Psyclaw – you troll 😛
Just as a matter of interest what war crimes has Morrison committed? Which war?
Now crimes against humanity may have some legs but only just.
psyclaw@651
Good evening comrade.
If you haven’t already seen it, watch that 4C.
If the behaviours were really as reported, Greg Anderson showed signs of serious psychosis and paranoia.
And there were plenty of indications of his propensity for violence before he killed or seriously harmed anyone.
Madigan: what a f**kin’ dummy.
davidwh – the crime of refoulement?
david
Do you take issue with Tony Abbott comparing the operation Morrison is conducting with a war?
davidwh@659
I side with the Gosford Anglicans. Pack your bags for The Hague Scoot.
Jimmy#653
You are right about education.
There is a critical early step in the education program.
I am reminded of what the research says about bullying and something that “experts” often pass by.
That is the breaking of the tabooed silence, and all non offenders being overt and active opponents ie educated opponents.
Some schools which have been successful in greatly reducing bullying have initiated as a first step the education of non offenders as to the best course of action they take in response ….. effective bystander behaviour, effective and consistent responses by “managers” of the incident, effective responses by parents, friends, classmates etc etc.
There are parallels for dealing with DV.
But this needs the topic to be out in the open at all levels, particularly at levels close to the action …… the extended family, the neighbourhood, the church, the workmates, the friendship groups etc.
DN yes. I generally have a problem with a lot of things Abbott says and does.
Bushfire Bill@661
He may not be the sharpest tool in the shed, but he usually sides with Labor in the Senate.
Bemused Comrade
Yes I saw 4C.
He was all the things you say, and probably more.
In that case, all dice were certainly loaded against the mother and child’s welfare.
I don’t believe refoulement is a war crime. It may be illegal under international law it that doesn’t make it a war crime.
Does pure evil exist? Yes, but in a tiny proportion to the sad, mad, and drug and alcohol addled. I think that’s the point Bemused is getting at. Let’s let the appropriate authorities work out which category Luke’s father falls into….
Scattered observations on that robo-poll:
PUP on 18% in Capricornia. Obviously they’ve managed to take the KAP vote. They’re also on 13% in Hasluck, ahead of the Greens.
The Greens are on 20% in Perth! If that’s a state-wide trend, they could do well enough to worry Labor in Freo, and maybe come second in Curtin.
Nickolas Varvaris (Lib, Barton) probably needs to go to more meet ‘n’ greet things – only 47% of people have an opinion on him. 31% are unsure, and 23% have never heard of him. Those aren’t good numbers to have in a marginal seat. The new Lib MP’s in Hindmarsh and Banks have similar figures.
Psyclaw – your excellent points go back to why the RC proposed by Andrews in Victoria is a good idea – it will break that societal silence around domestic abuse.
psyclaw@668
The poor mother was unfortunately not aware of a lot of the details of his behaviour so she could not take appropriate steps.
The guy was obviously off his tree and in need of proper treatment. He might have got that in Victoria’s largest psychiatric facility – Port Philip Prison.
davidwh – you are right, it is probably overblown rhetoric to call Morrison a war criminal – no matter how heinous his acts.
david
If Abbott argues that Morrison is conducting a war-like operation, then any crimes Morrison is committing are war-like crimes.
So you need to take it up with Abbott :P.
Of course, the intent of the war rhetoric is to suggest the situation is not normal and that Morrison’s (and the government’s) actions in such a context are not criminal.
Rossmore@670
I don’t know the answer to that.
Would the mind of a person who was ‘pure evil’ be ‘normal’? What is ‘normal’ or the range of ‘normality’?
I will stick to this one tragic case and I firmly believed it was avoidable on the basis of information in the public domain.
We will see what a coroner makes of it when all the evidence is assembled and some expert opinion is sought.
DisplayName – much like how the “war on terror” justified torture?
Just a quick note for Crikey Whitey on Mrs Joe Gargery from Great Expectations. I assume Anne Henderson’s reference was to cast Lambie as a kind of nasty scold … Which was the dominant reading of her in relation to her younger brother in the book.
[PUP on 18% in Capricornia. Obviously they’ve managed to take the KAP vote.]
On that, it’s been a while since we’ve heard from Katter.
Rossmore
[ Does pure evil exist? Yes, but in a tiny proportion to the sad, mad, and drug and alcohol addled. I think that’s the point Bemused is getting at. Let’s let the appropriate authorities work out which category Luke’s father falls into…. ]
The problem with this – and also with bemused’s litany of excuses for this particular instance of domestic violence – is that it means we are nearly always going to be left to figure this out after it is too late. And in most cases we are not likely to be able to do so even then. Certainly in this particular case we will now never know.
Surely it is better to acknowledge that the majority of domestic violence cases have nothing at all to do with mental illness, substance abuse, or anything else other than a tacit acceptance on the part of some – mostly young men – that as a last resort, violence is an acceptable solution to relationship problems.
JimmyDoyle@672
It will also expose and quantify a lot of the underlying causes and what can be done about them.
DN I think you need to differentiate between rhetoric and reality. I doubt the government’s current “war” against people smugglers is a war in any sense other than in the minds of the government. But if you want to use war crimes in this context then I guess that’s fair enough in a rhetorical sense.
I’m not even sure what Morrison is doing is refoulement but it would be interesting to see if any of the refugee legal experts try to test it in the international courts. It probably will happen at some time.
Player One@680
So then what is the answer in situations such as Rosie Batty faced?
davidwh – Returning potential refugees to a state that has perpetrated war crimes should, in my opinion, be a war crime. But then mine is just a semi-educated opinion.
Bemused Comrade
I expect the likes of PPP is an effective source for numerous types of pathology, not to mention a forum for considerable “skill” development.
bemused @681 – you are of course right, but I’m guessing the recommendations will be something like more resources and funding for human services (e.g. early intervention), more funding for mental health services, more funding for education and awareness programs. It’s not a matter of not knowing what’s required, it’s a matter of making the public care enough to change behaviour.
david
I was being a bit cheeky.
Abbott identified the war.
Others (such as us) identified the crime.
Put the two together …
It is of course incorrect to put them together like that :P.
Jimmy @ 677, much like that, yes.
psyclaw@685
I mentioned it to expose the shocking truth that it is indeed the states largest psychiatric inpatient facility.
This is an absolute disgrace.
On further thought, the whole “intransigence” thing is an irrelevant unicorn.
There is no objection raised to the assertion that the legislation was drafted with the Liberals but not the Greens. In fact, this is said to be the normal course of events. The Greens intransigence prior to the passage through the senate is then irrelevant.
Then there is the brief window where no negotiations were possible, just a yes or no to the scheme as already defined. Again, instransigence or otherwise in negotiations is irrelevant, as there was time for none.
So we discover that the Greens’ instransigence is essentially one and the same with their no vote for the CPRS. Which is fair enough, but not relevant to discussion of how the legislation was formed.
JimmyDoyle@686
I have no idea how good the statistics are on the topic. I suspect not very good at all.
So we should get a better handle on the size of the problem and the contributing factors.
Maybe enough will come out to shame and embarrass the State Govt into taking effective action.
Jimmy #672
Public discussion would seem to be a good outcome of a RC, in addition to info about how the system actually responds to DV at all levels ….. I suspect not too well, especially as a “system”.
I think there would be a widely held view by “managers” that the issue is so overwhelming that individual “managers” (cops, welfare, the system generally) feel helpless.
Saying Morrison’s transfers to SL amount to a war crime is unlikely to fit the specification, which demands serious violation of customary international law in the course of an armed conflict. It is implicit that the violator be a party to the armed conflict.
So as odious as Morrison’s acts are, they probably are merely a breach of our treaty obligations on refoulment rather than war crimes.
Israel’s actions in Gaza on the other hand easily fit the the description.
Jimmy 684 morally I’m inclined to agree but legally I don’t think it holds up. Apart from that how long after the alleged war crimes do you have to wait until it’s proper to return people to their country?
No easy answers there. You just have to see what’s happening in Iraq today to see how difficult it is.
bemused
[ So then what is the answer in situations such as Rosie Batty faced? ]
From the 4C report:
[ Ms Batty struggled to manage the violent behaviour of her former partner and repeatedly sought help through the courts, child protection and social workers. ]
If the police, the courts, the child protection agencies or the social workers had taken her complaints about domestic violence more seriously then Luke would probably not have died.
Domestic violence is far too often seen as less significant than other types of violence by the very people the victims turn to for help.
It is very telling in this case that the police seemed to take much more seriously Greg Anderson’s threat to his flatmate than all the threats – and actual violence – he had visited on his wife.
And Luke paid the price of this.
And apparently after all the chaos, and a new Liberal leader, there was no point talking to them anyway, having lost the Liberal’s support. Again, the Greens’ instransigence a complete non-issue.
Player One “Surely it is better to acknowledge that the majority of domestic violence cases have nothing at all to do with mental illness, substance abuse, or anything else other than a tacit acceptance on the part of some – mostly young men – that as a last resort, violence is an acceptable solution to relationship problems.”
Yes , I can agree with that. But a majority does not equate to a maxim. Family violence is to an extent sadly normalised in our community and a poor reflection of many men’s attitudes to women. But the tragic case of Luke Batty I think reeks of serious, delusional mental illness and our system’s inability to care for these individuals. As I said, I suggest we all reserve final judgement until the appropriate authorities have completed their investigations.
psyclaw@691
One of the points that came out tonight was that communication between agencies is inhibited by ‘privacy’ legislation. This is of course absurd.
I’ll stop pointlessly arguing with myself now and go to bed ;).
It’s all the Liberals’ fault. ’nuff said.
Fran Barlow – A cursory bit of research shows that any action that stems from government policy or practice that constitutes a serious attack on the dignity and safety of a human being may constitute a crime against humanity. That might fit the bill?
Player One@694
I don’t disagree with any of that.
But the threat is even more ominous when the person posing the threat is delusional and paranoid. They are more likely to behave in an irrational manner and not be inhibited by concerns about the law.