Known prior to 1983 as Wilmot, Lyons covers what’s left over of Tasmania after the north-west coast (Braddon), north-east coast (Bass), central Hobart (Denison) and Hobart’s outskirts (Franklin) are ordered into natural communities of interest. It thus includes small towns on either side of Tasmania’s pronounced north-south divide, including New Norfolk outside Hobart and the southern outskirts of Launceston, along with fishing towns and tourist centres on the east coast and rural territory in between, together with a short stretch of the northern coast between Braddon and Bass at Port Sorell. According to the 2011 census, Lyons has the lowest proportion of non-English speakers of any electorate in the country, along with the second lowest proportion of people who finished high school and the sixth lowest median family income. The Liberals gained the seat in 2013 on the back of the election’s biggest swing, which converted an existing Labor margin of 11.9% into a Liberal margin of 1.2%.
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| Blue and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room. |
Wilmot was in conservative hands from 1901 to 1929, when it was won for Labor by the man whose name it now bears. Joseph Lyons had been Tasmania’s Premier until the defeat of his minority government in 1928, and upon entering federal parliament he assumed the position of Postmaster-General in the newly elected government of Jim Scullin. However, Lyons and his followers split from Labor in 1931 after a dispute over economic policy in response to the Depression. Joining with the opposition to become the leader of the new conservative United Australia Party, Lyons became Prime Minister after a landslide win at the election held the following December, retaining the position through two further election victories until his death in 1939.
Labor briefly resumed its hold on Wilmot after the by-election that followed Lyons’ death, but Allan Guy recovered it for the United Australia Party at the general election of 1940. It next changed hands at the 1946 election when Labor’s Gil Duthie unseated Guy against the trend of a national swing to the newly formed Liberal Party. Duthie went on to hold the seat for nearly three decades, until all five Tasmanian seats went from Labor to Liberal in 1975. The 9.9% swing that delivered the seat to Max Burr in 1975 was cemented by an 8.0% swing at the next election in 1977, and the Franklin dam issue ensured the entire state remained on side with the Liberals in 1983 and 1984. The realignment when Burr retired at the 1993 election, when the loss of Burr’s personal vote combined with the statewide backlash against John Hewson’s proposed goods and services tax delivered a decisive 5.6% swing to Labor.
Labor’s member for the next two decades was Dick Adams, a former state government minister who had lost his seat in 1982. Adams survived a swing in 1996 before piling 9.3% on to his margin in 1998, enough of a buffer to survive a small swing in 2001 and a large one in 2004, as northern Tasmania reacted against Labor forestry policies which Adams had bitterly opposed. Strong successive performances in 2007 and 2010 left Adams with what appeared to be a secure buffer, but this proved illusory in the face of a swing in 2013 that reached double figures in all but a handful of the electorate’s booths, and in several cases topped 20%. The victorious Liberal candidate was Eric Hutchinson, a wool marketer with Tasmanian agribusiness company Roberts Limited, who had also run in 2010.
Centre@398
That is mathematically incorrect.
If a number ends in 1,2,3,4 you round down. If 5,6,7,8 or 9, round up.
Bit like Turnbull’s ’rounding’ on Labour’s FTTP.
Something like double Labour’s quote.
In a bit of trouble now though.
Not the only Liblie. Take say….Hockey?
[Well, that’s the entitlement culture for you.]
Yeah, old white male entitlement culture which is sadly still predominant in our supposed gender equal, multicultural, all abilities acceptance society.
William is absolutely spot on with his assessment of that shit: Wankers.
Chaos of clive straight from the devil’s playbook
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/chaos-of-clive-straight-from-devils-playbook-20140712-3bu9t.html
http://www.vox.com/2014/7/8/5878293/lets-stop-using-the-word-moderate?utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=ezraklein&utm_content=Tuesday
[Moderate voters are a myth]
Interesting article, worth a read and a think.
confessions@403
Oh dear, ageism, racism and misandry all rolled into one post.
I am shocked. 😮
zoomster:
Not sure what support is offered to members to get to national and state conferences beyond travel and accommodation for the individual member, but I’m thinking inclusion and wondering whether single parents with children and people with disabilities and their carers can apply for funding for their kids/carers to attend conference with them if they receive a grant to attend?
On the topic of Westacott, Karnell and other subluminaries, I remembered the days of Heather Rideout.
Ms Rideout, an always practical and reasoning person.
One is not appointed to boards such as these, without reason.
Wiki.
The Climate Change Authority is an Australian statutory agency that began operations on 1 July 2012. Its role is to advise the government on the setting of carbon pollution caps, to conduct periodic reviews of the carbon pricing process, and to report on progress towards meeting national targets.[1] These pollution caps will form the basis for the cap-and-trade structure to commence in 2015.
The authority has a Board comprising nine members, headed by Bernie Fraser. Other members include Lynne Williams, David Karoly, Elana Rubin, Heather Ridout, John Marlay, John Quiggin, Ian Chubb and Clive Hamilton.[2] The agency was established under the Climate Change Authority Act 2011.
The agency is based in Melbourne where it has the advantage of being able to work closely with the Productivity Commission.[3] The agency has been allocated A$6.2 million in the 2012-13 financial year.[4] The Australian Government, under Liberal leadership, is in the process of abolishing the Climate Change Authority, a move which has been heavily criticised.[5][6][7]
What must they think???
Will Insiders be worth watching tomorrow?
[Prime Minister Tony Abbott faces a fresh threat to the abolition of the carbon tax, with two key crossbenchers warning that if the government continues to pander to Clive Palmer it risks losing their support.
NSW senator David Leyonhjelm and South Australia’s Bob Day issued the stern warning on Saturday, saying they were concerned that ”severe compliance” obligations placed on business by Palmer United Party amendments to the carbon tax repeal bills could be ”worse than the tax itself”.]
I don’t think for one minute they would do that but let’s fantasize for a moment. If they did do it, would that be enough with the greens and labor to block the repeal?
Certainly, Centre.
I believe Bill Shorten is on the guest list.
Think again, Darn.
Went to the Footy on Friday night at Fortress Brookvale.
Tony Abbott was there to associate himself with both the Sea Eagles and Bear Cottage, a hospice for very ill children.
Got a good look at him through my binoculars. He looked just about all in, very worn.
Ground Announcer welcomed him, saying he had come to get away from the Carbon Tax to have a relaxing night at the footy.
Must have worked, final score Eagles 40, Tigers 8!
cw
Oh good, we won’t need to turn down the volume, he don’t shout.
Centre:
Shorten is the interview tomorrow.
Might be in need of a hospice, pretty soon.
crikey whitey@408
Heather Ridout was always a standout as a reasonable employer representative.
Her successor, Innes Willox, is not a patch on her and was a staffer for Lord Downer of Baghdad at one stage I believe.
Westacott and Carnell are useless Tories.
Centre@409
It always is unless you are a precious petal.
Crikey
Spot on about Ms Rideout.
She was a standout as AIG leader …… intelligent, reasonable, fair.
I think she saw through and outgrew the narrow big end of town agenda.
Bemused Comrade
Snap.
connie
Yes, Insiders will be interviewing the Labor leader, I think we gathered 😯
DWT
Good to hear Abbott looked worn.
The more invites Carnell gets to expose her views, the less impressive she shows herself to be.
Lightweight sycophantic disciple.
psyclaw@419
I am struggling to think of her predecessor who was of a similar outlook and mentored Heather. She owes a lot of her attitudes to him. Surname was Kirby I think.
The question is, will Tony be able to keep up his activities until the prescribed age of we mere mortals.
Such as. Hi Vis Stunts. Fire trucks. Cycling without Amogen branding. Surfing. Marathons. God knows what else.
Cycling without an expenses claim. Weddings.
Hopefully some funerals. Especially those of his aged colleagues. I wouldn’t mind him claiming for that. Well worth it.
He of course will be extremely comfortable. Given the absurd conditions of employment and afterlife beyond politics.
Though Margie will need to go in for the kill.
Enjoying a nice Nasi Goreng and ais Milo in the Mamak restaurant in Sydney’s Chinatown. No queue tonight, and always better after a routine Swannies flogging of another hapless Melbourne team.
BEMUSED
It seems you scored a” 3″ in Confessions listing of BAD THINGS TO BE
Male,white and old…and not much we can do about any of those 3 things,except to ignore the misandry of which there is lots around on PB
Centre:
Insiders is only worth watching for the MP interview. That whole talking heads insider couch thing has been done to death and rarely yields any additional interesting info.
Don’t know, Bemused.
I probably didn’t pay so much attention to that sort of stuff, then.
It seemed to come into focus for me in the Howard years.
Yeah, Sprocket.
My olden days Melbourne team.
The Bloods!
deblonay@426
Agreed, and worst of all, William seems to encourage it.
For any cricket fans out there, Joe Root and Jimmy Anderson have put on an unbroken stand of 187 for the 10th wicket versus India.
Astonishing.
Just heard on TV that Abbott will not rest until the carbon tax is repealed.
Really, you’d think he’s have some real issues that effect peoples lives to worry about.
Connie, agreed.
*night
[It seems you scored a” 3″ in Confessions listing of BAD THINGS TO BE
Male,white and old]
Yeah, and whiny arsed male, white and old pitching a fit about his particular privileged lot in life in the face of those sections of society who face genuine and institutional disadvantage.
William reckons he’s a wanker. I just think of him as a pig ignorant moron.
affect peoples lives
*crashing
he’d have
*gone
confessions@433
Projection of course.
Psyclaw, your post at 58
Posted Saturday, July 12, 2014 at 10:51 am | Permalink
Apart from Carnell, helped trigger my recollection of Heather Rideout. I so remember her looking delighted when Howard fell.
So other world really. She subsequently let her hair down. I mean that literally. Appearing ‘relaxed and dishevelled’.
Too funny.
You said.
[What fuckwits Innis Wilcox and Jennifer Westacott are. So called business “leaders”.
They are whinging about the uncertainty and declining business confidence as a result of the carbon tax “hanging on” and specifically as a result of the PUPs actions this week.]
Crikey #397
I agree about Clive and the possibility of him standing Abbott up again next week.
I wouldn’t predict it, but nothing will surprise. He sure enjoys toying with Abbott and it may already have become a vice for him and hard to resist.
To make it more complicated, any decisions to be made by PUP team this week could put them under pressure too …… they are clearly not similar personalities and their all for one and one for all remains to be tested.
For example Lambie, (the only PUP) could go with the NSW bald guy, and Muir to oppose repeal, and Abbott doesn’t have his six.
Bemused….
That”pig ignorant moron” is a term of abuse of Psephos-like quality
psyclaw@438
You are wise not to predict for the reasons you state.
I think Lambie has developed a fine loathing of Abbott and would take delight in thwarting his plans. She just needs a rationale to go back on her carbon tax repeal stance.
deblonay@439
Fortunately I am well aware she is a numpty and invariably wrong. 😀
Nick Ross @NickRossTech 37s
Shhh “@charliex64: @Zvyozdochka @SenatorLudlam is it really 12m homes? If so they need to manage nearly 100k NBN connects per week?!”
[ That”pig ignorant moron” is a term of abuse of Psephos-like quality]
Says the idiot who happily cites all kinds of pig ignorant morons who write shit he agrees with, all the while attacking Psephos for holding views he’s been able to arrive at all by himself without needing copy and paste functionality.
You’re a fucking laugh a minute deblonay. And I don’t mean that in a good way.
Psyclaw.
I take the view that Clive will read everything that is predicted about him. Work out how to dismay and worse. In the Reps.
Then take the shocking, amazing, entertaining opposite.
Certainly he will not want to betray Al Gore. That would not be a good look. Salvaging or retaining the Carbon Tax would be excellent, especially when he can point to the fantasy of the supposed savings.
On Lambie.
Again I am impressed. As I am with Ricky Muir. Real worlders.
Jacqui Lambie: How I found Clive Palmer, lost 40kg and now could derail the federal budget
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/nsw/jacqui-lambie-how-i-found-clive-palmer-lost-40kg-and-now-could-derail-the-federal-budget/story-fni0cx12-1226978876840?nk=b3d3dfbebd7fd50ee20d4fa92eed9c2b
crikey whitey @ 424: Let’s hope Mr Abbott continues with the cycling, as that will provide more opportunities to label him as the Lance Armstrong of Australian politics.
The innate hate gushes forth from all comers whenever there are no conservatives to bully here, eh?
Perhaps some introspection every now and then folks?
:devil:
confessions@443
My, our little numpty is all fired up tonight.
But as usual, wRONg about most things.
confessions and bemused…
Different sides of the same coin.
Mad Lib@446
Dropped in to tell us how the ‘carbon tax’ repeal is going?
crikey whitey @ 444: That’s a fascinating account of Senator Lambie. I’d have to say her views of some of her political colleagues ring true to me. I’m rapidly coming to the conclusion that some of the commentators who lamented the arrival in the Senate of the likes of Muir and Lambie got it badly wrong, and it will do the characters from both parties who have never had a real job outside politics a power of good to be dependent for a time on real people plucked by fate out of the obscurity which most of us enjoy.