Seat of the week: Lyons

The central Tasmanian electorate of Lyons covers some of the poorest and least ethnically diverse territory in the country, and it recorded the nation’s biggest anti-Labor swing at the 2013 election.

Known prior to 1983 as Wilmot, Lyons covers what’s left over of Tasmania after the north-west coast (Braddon), north-east coast (Bass), central Hobart (Denison) and Hobart’s outskirts (Franklin) are ordered into natural communities of interest. It thus includes small towns on either side of Tasmania’s pronounced north-south divide, including New Norfolk outside Hobart and the southern outskirts of Launceston, along with fishing towns and tourist centres on the east coast and rural territory in between, together with a short stretch of the northern coast between Braddon and Bass at Port Sorell. According to the 2011 census, Lyons has the lowest proportion of non-English speakers of any electorate in the country, along with the second lowest proportion of people who finished high school and the sixth lowest median family income. The Liberals gained the seat in 2013 on the back of the election’s biggest swing, which converted an existing Labor margin of 11.9% into a Liberal margin of 1.2%.

Blue and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for Liberal and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Wilmot was in conservative hands from 1901 to 1929, when it was won for Labor by the man whose name it now bears. Joseph Lyons had been Tasmania’s Premier until the defeat of his minority government in 1928, and upon entering federal parliament he assumed the position of Postmaster-General in the newly elected government of Jim Scullin. However, Lyons and his followers split from Labor in 1931 after a dispute over economic policy in response to the Depression. Joining with the opposition to become the leader of the new conservative United Australia Party, Lyons became Prime Minister after a landslide win at the election held the following December, retaining the position through two further election victories until his death in 1939.

Labor briefly resumed its hold on Wilmot after the by-election that followed Lyons’ death, but Allan Guy recovered it for the United Australia Party at the general election of 1940. It next changed hands at the 1946 election when Labor’s Gil Duthie unseated Guy against the trend of a national swing to the newly formed Liberal Party. Duthie went on to hold the seat for nearly three decades, until all five Tasmanian seats went from Labor to Liberal in 1975. The 9.9% swing that delivered the seat to Max Burr in 1975 was cemented by an 8.0% swing at the next election in 1977, and the Franklin dam issue ensured the entire state remained on side with the Liberals in 1983 and 1984. The realignment when Burr retired at the 1993 election, when the loss of Burr’s personal vote combined with the statewide backlash against John Hewson’s proposed goods and services tax delivered a decisive 5.6% swing to Labor.

Labor’s member for the next two decades was Dick Adams, a former state government minister who had lost his seat in 1982. Adams survived a swing in 1996 before piling 9.3% on to his margin in 1998, enough of a buffer to survive a small swing in 2001 and a large one in 2004, as northern Tasmania reacted against Labor forestry policies which Adams had bitterly opposed. Strong successive performances in 2007 and 2010 left Adams with what appeared to be a secure buffer, but this proved illusory in the face of a swing in 2013 that reached double figures in all but a handful of the electorate’s booths, and in several cases topped 20%. The victorious Liberal candidate was Eric Hutchinson, a wool marketer with Tasmanian agribusiness company Roberts Limited, who had also run in 2010.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,035 comments on “Seat of the week: Lyons”

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  1. Leave it off.

    And leave Deblonay alone.

    It just became bad enough where I am, and too distressing to read these foolish wars.

    My ‘partner’ if I may put it as that, has been exhibiting his paranoia and ugly behaviour on full show for the last few days.

    No idea what his problem is. Don’t even care.

    For the same reason I left him in the past, I am considering doing so again.

    Life is uncertain.

    Try to be nice.

  2. Absolutely, Pedant.

    I have somewhere an excellent account of Muir’s life.

    Similarly, real world. Why, he was even a Union delegate!

    As I remarked on the Guardian some days ago.

  3. Pedant re Muir and Lambie post 450
    ______________
    Great stuff as you said…and I think that Abbott will have a power of trouble trying to get them to follow his dictates

    Actually Lambie seems to have some radical views,and given the obvious loathing of Palmer for Abbott(and other Libs like Newman)I suspect Abbott’s troubles are only just starting

  4. [Life is uncertain.

    Try to be nice.]

    Seriously? Two nights ago you and psyclaw were pitching a fit about me, when I wasn’t even here. Hows about you live up to your own standards before making demands of others.

  5. crikey whitey@451

    My ‘partner’ if I may put it as that, has been exhibiting his paranoia and ugly behaviour on full show for the last few days.

    No idea what his problem is. Don’t even care.

    For the same reason I left him in the past, I am considering doing so again.

    Life is uncertain.

    Try to be nice.

    Has your partner sought help?

    Have you sought help for him?

    I am saddened to read of your plight and hope it can be sorted out.

  6. Pedant

    [crikey whitey @ 424: Let’s hope Mr Abbott continues with the cycling, as that will provide more opportunities to label him as the Lance Armstrong of Australian politics.]

    I am doing what I can to discover Abbott’s links with Amgen.

    Amgen. Do similar bike riding sponsorship across the world.

    Also allegedly linked with enhancement performing drugs.

    Amgen is on Abbott’s taxpayer funded Lycra and road trips.

    I would take a fair bet that Amgen would be the ultimate beneficiary of Abbott’s proposed 20Bill ‘research fund’ at the expense of our Medicare system.

  7. confessions@455

    Life is uncertain.

    Try to be nice.


    Seriously? Two nights ago you and psyclaw were pitching a fit about me, when I wasn’t even here. Hows about you live up to your own standards before making demands of others.

    Charming as usual.

    Lashes out at crikey whitey when she is vulnerable.

  8. Best wishes crikey whitey,

    Probably best to take a little leave from this place, getting nastier every time I visit! I think I am going to take a little siesta myself, lest I become more like the folk here and less like my friends.

    Au revoir 🙂

  9. Oh. Don’t be foolish, Confessions.

    Bemused. Thank you for your kind thoughts.

    Until now, since I returned to his house, underlined if I could, he has been perfectly fine.

    I did have a rather down to the wire discussion with him the other night regarding his wanted for MY money, and wills and things.

    His response was not particularly satisfactory or reasonable, by my way of thinking.

    Luckily I am not plighted, financially. So I can leave. But, he has a wood fire!

    I can leave. Again. Something he fears. And has said, at odds with this foolish behaviour, that he hated it when I was gone and was so lonely and he never wishes me to leave.

    He has multiple medical problems.

    He does not respond to any kind of logic or suggestion that he should seek outside counselling or whatever.

    I will ponder what next.

  10. crikey whitey@461

    He has multiple medical problems.

    He does not respond to any kind of logic or suggestion that he should seek outside counselling or whatever.

    I will ponder what next.

    Sounds to me like mental illness is a possibility and maybe he should be assessed.

    That is not easy if someone is unwilling and usually means waiting until there is some kind of a crisis that requires external intervention and involuntary assessment.

    I wish you the very best as such a situation is extremely difficult.

  11. Clive doing what Shorten was unable to, draw attention to Abbott,and make politics interesting again to some of the public.

    Sometimes you need a catalyst to get things working.

  12. The extremely cold weather which much of South Eastern Oz is experiencing seems also to be the case in Southern South Africa where widespead snowfalls are disrupting traffic over a wide area north of Cape Town

    The same seem to be the case too in Patagonia,Argentina ..I stayed at a resot town called Bariloche where in mid-winter it was about 15deg below zere and one of the coldest places I have ever been too

    It is also the place to start a two day bus/ lake-ferry trip across the Andes into southern Chile

    Amazing country,with dense snow and a scary road across the Andes
    One ends the first day at an amazing old Hotel at a tiny Chilean town called Pauella..all the public areas.have huge fires going night and day…..good Chilean food too .then on the following day for another day of lake journeys to the coast south of Santiago
    though dense wet forests too

    Tonight in Melb is is just 6 deg

  13. Billie.

    Thanks.

    I am still plotting my trip to Melbourne. Thought of ringing you the other night.

    My Mod Lib friend wants to go to some Sondheim thing in Melbourne. Passion, I think. She would love to me to go.

    I have no interest in Sondheim’s works. Bit pallid for my taste.

    Give me Wagner any time. Suits my fatalistic point of view.

    I watched earlier tonight a movie, Onegin. Ralph Fiennes.

    Fantastically tragic!

    Whatever. I will get to Melbourne. You and Bemused may expect me.

  14. Crikey Whitey
    Good Luck…but in this time of the year ,,, that wood fire is a bit of a treat

    One of my adult sons has a lovely heater in a family room and when we visit I always love to stoke the fire and poke it …my grandchildren laugh and say I am a potential firebug,but in this weather it gives a lovely feeling of warmth

    We have a gss ducted heating system and in addition a gas fire in the lounge which we also put on in this weather for it’s comfly appearance
    fire must appeal to some amcient human need

    Speaking of Chile in winter,I recall the wondeful warmth of the old hotel at Peulla,and that we drank a local brandy with tonic water called”Pisco”…yes really called Pisco.!!.and after a few of these you seem to lose contact with your legs,but it is wonderfully warming

    Australians always find the the name of the brandy very amusing
    which is lost on the Chileans

  15. Sydney has had a run of clear nights and sunny, virtually cloudless days (96% of possible sunshine) in July. This has meant cold nights and mild afternoons, e.g Parramatta is tracking 4 degrees to 19, respectively 2 below average to 2 above, so on average close to average. But these days, an average Winter is the exception, Winter is nearly always warmer than average.

  16. Confessions

    Pointing out how you went 180 degrees on an issue in a couple of hours, is hardly “pitching a fit”.

  17. Imacca.

    William Bowe. In deference to your rightful edict that posters not paste articles in full. I have deleted the last few words.

    What a laugh! As many PBers waste their lives in hope and expectation of the series ‘Abbott and Margie at Homes.’

    Breathlessly.

    [ABC spurns Howard tapes despite four-hour series featuring Keating

    The Australian July 12, 2014 12:00AM Chris Kenny

    THE ABC has rejected a major television interview series with former prime minister John Howard, just six months after airing a four-part program with Paul Keating.

    The series, working title John Howard Defined, will be conducted by The Australian columnist and former ABC board member Janet Albrechtsen and has been snapped up by the Seven Network.

    “Why the ABC turned down Howard after the success of the Keating interviews is somewhat of a mystery,” said the executive prod­ucer of Seven’s Sunday Night, Mark Llewellyn, who will oversee the project. “Bewildering is not the word but it comes close.”

    Albrechtsen, who was recently appointed to a government panel putting forward names for ABC and SBS board positions, gave the public broadcaster first option for the series.

    After detailed discussions, the ABC’s director of television Richard Finlayson decided to “let it go”.

    With ABC managing director Mark Scott on leave, spokesman Michael Millett said the ABC had been “interested in the concept” of a Howard series but would find it “difficult to slot” into its schedule.

    Mr Millett said the ABC told Albrechtsen it was “concerned about her lack of on-air interviewing experience” yet pointed to an upcoming series of interviews, including one with Mr Howard, by former journalist at T he Australian George Megalogenis.

    Industry insiders were surprised that the ABC would decline the project, especially given that after recent criticism over perceived green-left bias, the Howard series would have been a timely opportunity to demonstrate some balance.

    Paradoxically, it was through ALP connections that Seven was alerted to the project. Seven’s natio­nal news director Rob Raschke was seated next to Albrechtsen in May at the wedding of former union boss and ALP national executive member Paul Howes.

    Having been told about the project, Raschke was later baffled to hear about the ABC’s reluctance, and was happy to swoop.

    Seven sees the exceptional sales of Howard’s memoir as a hint to his pulling power. It plans a two-part series to be aired later this year.

    “Clearly there is a difference between what the ABC did and what we will do regarding the respective interviewers,” said Llew­ellyn. “One has beautiful lustrous hair and a talent for skewering people of the opposite political persuasion and then there’s Janet Albrechtsen.

    “The ABC series worked because Paul Keating is such a commanding character, who bestrode the political scene for decades, just like John Howard.

    “No doubt Kerry O’Brien regards Keating with fondness but it didn’t stop him asking tough questions, and that is how it will be between Howard and Albrechtsen.”

    Albrechtsen has exclusive agreement for the project from Mr Howard. She admires him but has been critical of him in the past.

    In September 2007, less than three months before his election defeat, she publicly called on him to resign.

    Albrechtsen says the former prime minister has a fair idea what to expect. “He is neither suspicious of me, nor does he expect an easy interview,” she said.

    Having been a prominent commentator on national affairs for more than a decade, through the zenith of the Howard years and the demise of his government, Albrechtsen believes there is much yet to be revealed.

    “After his own book, countless reports and hundreds of interviews about him, John Winston Howard remains largely unexplained,” she says.

    “What is it about the make-up of Howard that made him the second-longest-serving prime minister in our history?

    “How did he achieve stunning success over a 33-year-long career when most elite opinion predicted he would fail?’’

    Albrechtsen was recently appointed to a government panel charged with recommending candidates for board positions at the ABC and SBS.

    She has been attacked by Labor and ABC staff as being too closely aligned to the conservative side of politics for that role….

    Read more, I guess.

  18. For sure, Deblonay.

    I sold a house with a marvelous state of the art wood fire place.

    My then very little and always lovely niece poked at it too.

    And we toasted marshmallows and baked potatoes over and in it.

    It is a bit otherwise, but I covet and love if all else fails, a dearly like stand alone bio fire. In its elegant and comforting expensive way.

    http://shop.ecosmartfire.com/

  19. I’ve updated “What Kills State Governments: Age Or Canberra” (http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/what-kills-state-governments-age-or.html) with some stuff about the impact of federal government unpopularity on state governments.

    If the state government is of the same party as the federal government then it suffers more if the federal government is unpopular (as measured by 2PP polling) than otherwise.

    If the state government is of the opposite party then it doesn’t seem to matter.

    If the Coalition federally is at below 51% 2PP come federal election time then this makes Napthine’s task even harder than I already assessed it as. And if they are well below 51 at that stage that just about moves re-election into “forget it” territory.

    These findings are for post-1989 only.

  20. [Clive doing what Shorten was unable to, draw attention to Abbott,and make politics interesting again to some of the public.]

    Why not have another boring drive on labor leadership … allen griffen (just in the coffee shop) ‘out of the Blue’.

    Dumb as dog sHit.

    KRud, more like ‘KRugg’.

  21. Thomas Paine

    “Clive doing what Shorten was unable to, draw attention to Abbott,and make politics interesting again to some of the public.”

    What a profoundly daft comparison to make. Palmer controls the balance of power in the Senate, Shorten does not. In these circumstances of course Palmer will be getting the attention.

    The axe you’re grinding is rather too obvious, try harder next time.

  22. Back in 2007, here in sunny Queensland, Toowoomba had minus 16 due to the wind chill factor.

    Brrrrrr…… 2 reverse cycles going full pelt and a roaring wood fire couldn’t warm the bones.

  23. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    A very good article from Peter FitzSimons on Ian Thorpe’s disclosure.
    http://www.smh.com.au/sport/swimming/ian-thorpe-acknowledges-hes-gay-lets-hope-hes-now-happy-as-well-20140713-zt5rm.html
    Ricky Muir ready to rev up.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/after-a-week-of-clive-muir-ready-to-rev-up-20140712-3btrs.html
    Looks like the Dishonourable Scott Morrison is a law unto himself even when overseas. DGAT? Pfffttt!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/nervous-dfat-staff-scott-morrison-nothing-to-do-with-me-20140712-zt5h3.html
    It ain’t gonna be over until the fat lady (man?) sings.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/11/palmer-carbon-tax-repeal-amendment-government-seeks-more-changes
    A very good read! Does Abbott have the carbon curse?
    https://theconversation.com/does-abbott-have-the-carbon-curse-29127
    The role of the PM’s Chiefs of Staff over the years.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/the-ultimate-insiders-job-20140710-zt2by.html
    Putting perversion on trial – our blind spot on child abuse. well worth reading.
    http://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/society/2014/07/12/rolf-harris-reaction-masks-our-blind-spot-child-abuse/1405087200#.U8Gj1vmSyk8
    Why alternative media are conquering the world.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/business/business-display/why-alternative-media-are-conquering-the-world,6665
    Peter Martin on the uncertain future of cash.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/why-cash-is-on-borrowed-time-20140712-zt5ms.html
    The Kouk on Abbott’s own debt woes.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/gross-government-debt-hits-323-billion.html#.U8Gl2fmSyk8

  24. BK

    [on Ian Thorpe’s disclosure.]

    I haven’t read yet but have heard mention of on ABC.

    Thorpe is obviously feeling seriously deprived of public attention.

    Next year the ‘disclosure’ will involve something that will seriously disturb Corey.

    After that who knows.

    And anyway who cares.

  25. Good Morning

    BK

    You are right a good article by Fitzsimmons.

    Thorpe is not alone. Given numbers we know their are inevitably more gay people in our elite swimming teams. Same for all team sports.

    It is sad that we can say Ian Roberts, Mathew Mitcham and Ian Thorpe. They should be lost in a crowd.

  26. Dee

    [5.3 in Toowoomba atm.]

    That’s a summer morning in Canberra. Enjoy.

    -1.7c here – apparent temp -5.something …

  27. I find it rather telling that The Australian regards being gay as something one ‘admits‘.

    I wonder how many at that rag will admit being ignorant homophobes. I doubt any at that nest of vipers will admit having a shred of dignity or humanity.

  28. We live in a poor society when gays like Thorpe live in fears. Thorpe being a champion swimmer should be remarkable. Thorpe being gay should just be unremarkable.

    Good on Thorpe for overcoming his fears – in yet another example of why our society to take a good hard look at itself.

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