It’s likely to be a quiet week on the federal polling front, promising only the usual weekly Essential Research if the usual schedules are observed. However, The Australian is keeping us entertained with the regularly fortnightly Newspoll quarterly breakdowns, and may have more on its way in the shape of state voting intention results from New South Wales, Western Australia and South Australia. The breakdowns aggregate Newspoll’s results from April to June and provide separate results by state, gender, age and geography (specifically the five capitals versus the rest of Australia). It’s the results for the five mainland states that are of most interest, and apart from showing a higher anti-government swing in New South Wales at 54-46 in favour of Labor, they’re not far off the current BludgerTrack readings, with Labor leading 58-42 in Victoria and 55-45 in South Australia, trailing 51-49 in Western Australia, and breaking even in Queensland. The gender, age and geographic breakdowns tell their usual tale. Hat tip: GhostWhoVotes.
Jimmyhaz
[, I can guarantee that the thing to do is not be a slightly less shit version of the coalition]
It was put well by the far right French pollie Jean marie Le Pen in response to other parties trying to adopt some of his rhetoric. “When it comes to a choice between an original or a copy people will always choose an original”
Haha…fracking Zoomster…Labor Opposition almost invisible…answer for her…oh blame Rudd or something. Fricking pathetic little sycophancy still runs the behind the scenes at Labor.
Shorten and Co need to get off their lazy arses. Where TF is the Opposition?
Abbott Morison send AS back to Sri Lanka for a bit tortue and murder….. we cant criticise that because Rudd had a Manus policy….huh? WTF. Well Gillard had a Timor solution so better not criticise Abbott now….
Little sycophancy and some independent thought.
guytaur
ah — just as we were predicting!
[“@Simon_Cullen: The Govt has suffered its first loss in the new Senate. Senators have voted against an attempt to bring on debate for carbon tax repeal leg”]
Palmer knows how to wring the very last cent out of a negotiation. Abbott sucks at negotiation. i think Palmer can keep his own dudes on side by highlighting they will give up on issues they decide on, as soon as they milk the situation for all the political capital and pork barreling they possibly can.
Penny Wong giving a good lecture on he role of the Senate.
Now Milne pouring scorn on Abetz.
guytaur
Posted Monday, July 7, 2014 at 1:40 pm
Don’t mention the name she’s SHY.
[Shorten and Co need to get off their lazy arses. Where TF is the Opposition?]
Surely you know that without being a Rudd fan like you and some others, i’m very critical of the cult of gillard (more critical of the cult than I ever was of her as PM) but why would you want the Labor opposition to be doing anything while Abbott is doing such a great job for them. I think Labor have almost exactly the right level of noise at the moment.
Now will a PUP Senator speak against this motion?
WeWantPaul
[Abbott sucks at negotiation.]
This wouldn’t help either. We heard on the Insiders that EricA “is leading the charm offensive” in the senate.
Senate QT is on ABC 1 today
[My argument is that simply assuming that anyone who comes here by boat is a genuine refugee is a mistake.]
I don’t think anyone suggests that to be the case.
The issue is that we automatically treat them as though they are NOT refugees, when the majority of them ARE refugees. We deny them access to the legal and health systems, put them in what amounts to a prison, and then use attrition to grind them down.
Mitch Fifield now fulminating with the same old same old.
PUP next? Bring on the Brick!
That’s not very nice BB
[I feel somewhat abashed saying it, but Palmer’s ability to cut through and be frank is extremely refreshing.]
I think the advantage he has is that he commands media attention (combination of money and always being a bit of a spectacle). There are lots of people who could “cut through” if the media actually took the time to report what they had to say.
[ We heard on the Insiders that EricA “is leading the charm offensive” in the senate.]
*chortle*
Its called a national narrative, they are important, they affect the conscience of the public. Yes people are getting to hate Abbott. But if he is replaced then what…they have got to hate Libs as whole.
Shorten should be speaking the conscience of everyday Australians, voicing their thoughts, highlight the inhumanity of the Lib party one and all. Reveal them, as well as getting the people to know him as well…as the balanced safe pair of hands. remind people that Labor represents fairness………..
pb
Senator Scott Ludlum proved your point with that speecg posted on youtube just before the WA Senate By election
“@political_alert: Shadow Minister for Families & Payments, Jenny Macklin, will hold a press conference here at Parliament from 2.30pm #auspol”
zoom
Qld ReachTEL numbers have soared for PUP at state level and in the WA by election Greens and PUP soared to double digits and Galaxy had PUP at 6% and 8% recently, ReachTEL 6% and 7%.
I think they need to be carefully considered.
Fiona Nash uses Credlin’s standard non-answer template first up in Senate QT.
fredex
Yep, PUP at 6% seems about right, and accords with Bludgertrack.
I’ve already agreed that Palmer has a high vote in Queensland – just that he doesn’t command the whole of the ‘Others’ cohort.
This is Garrison Keilor land. On the Oz’s figures, the average swing against the Government (2PP) is 6.5%, yet in every state the swing is above average.
On today’s figures, the 2PP swing is 7.6% in NSW, 7.8% in Victoria, 7% in Queensland, 7.3% in WA and 7.4% in SA. Those figures are astonishingly consistent across the states, but are incompatible with the reported national swing of 6.5%.
So which figure is wrong? Will Newspoll, which has done very well over recent elections, please correct its data?
Labor would have done better to vote for Senator Ludlum
New Senate President is already showing the “impartiality” of Bronny Bishop.
And Fiona Nash is working hard to emulate the personna of Michaelia Cash.
Sorry as President I mean
So no Carbon tax debate until the committee reports next week. Well done Ericabets a whole week of Senate recall for absolutely nothing. What a waste.
Senate President rules that, as long as Nash is talking about her portfolio, she’s being relevant…
Thanks for the links about the UK’s papers.
It does look like Daily Mail is the sort who might not be above performing stunts like what I mentioned above.
In one of the links it looks like they don’t support any one particular party. I wonder if it is that case after the embarrassing articles it might be writing for the Blackshirts once upon a time. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the readers might have once been staunch supporters of the BNP, and now the UKIP.
Abetz back to bullying as a negotiating tactic.
@nicchristensen: According to Crikey Fairfax are giving their reporters and editors Twitter follower targets #seriously :S (paywalled) http://t.co/gcJsmfw0zh
Nash “this is a fact and allows me to directly answer the question..’ – – ah, so admitting she hasn’t been doing that up til now?
Nash telling porkies, the co-payment was supposed to go to the research fund, not the budget bottom line.
Just fell off chair. I think Senator Carr had a similar reaction
Pleased the low income super contribution stays – school kids handout should go though.
@Jimmyhyan: Protest outside immigration dept: bring back the boats, end enhanced screening #wherearethe153 http://t.co/r5OFCxJjbV
@latikambourke: RT @KJBar: Sri Lanka’s Navy says 41 asylum seekers returned by Australia will be handed to criminal investigators upon return @abcnews
[Sri Lanka’s Navy says 41 asylum seekers returned by Australia will be handed to criminal investigators upon return @abcnews]
Bastards.
Just how far will Minister Morrison go in testing the Australian peoples tolerance re his handling of asylum seekers ?
Rex Douglas @ 189
[Just how far will Minister Morrison go in testing the Australian peoples tolerance re his handling of asylum seekers ?]
Until you can’t see him for body guards…..
On twitter. Meanwhile the RC today is dealing with utter triviality
[Dear Commonwealth Bank, thank you for your apology. It has made the defrauding of tens of millions of dollars totally forgivable. #auspol]
Australians have a very high tolerance of home grown racism (they don’t like it when foreigners practice it), so I imagine the majority couldn’t care less what Morrison does to refugees.
4Corners Tonight
“Newspapers, telecommunications and the entertainment industry have all felt the chill winds of change brought on by new technology. Now science is revolutionising power generation. Technology is making alternative sources of energy cheaper, more user-friendly and, crucially, it’s decentralising production to the rooftops of homes and commercial buildings across Australia.”
Richard Ackland is back. His first article in the Grauniad.
[Handing back asylum seekers is called refoulement. And it’s illegal]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/07/handing-back-asylum-seekers-is-called-refoulement-and-its-illegal
The Govts budget agenda seems to now be in tatters.
Notwithstanding my earlier comments, it now seems that leaving Sri Lanka, even for economic reasons, in itself makes you subject to arrest when returned to your homeland.
If true, this is a new development, and a worry for Morrison. He had better get the Sri Lankans up to speed pretty quick, or else he’s in a terrible pickle (as are any he returns).
From Ackland’s article more evidence that the boats ain’t stopped.
“It is now understood, as a result of distress signals picked up by the New Zealanders, that there is also a third boat intercepted by Australia.”
“@latikambourke: 53 legal scholars from 17 Australian unis “profoundly concerned” by Govt handing back asylum seekers ‘raises a real risk of refoulement.””
Now that’s a deterrent.
Rex
Morrison is on a mission from his god, the god who gets you re-elected.
Sadly I think the people who object to Australia’s treatment of asylum seekers remain a minority
Until that changes Morrison won’t either.
As for legal niceties such as refouolment, Morrison’s god is yet to rule that sinful so the UN and all those bleeding heart leftie lawyers can get stuffed.