Seat of the week: Dickson

Peter Dutton’s parliamentary career began when he unseated Cheryl Kernot in 2001, and he was doubtful enough of his capacity to keep his seat out of Labor hands that he sought refuge elsewhere before the 2010 election.

Located at the western edge of Brisbane’s northern suburban corridor, Dickson is one of six seats which have been created to deal with Queensland’s population boom since the expansion of parliament in 1984. From south to north, it presently encompasses the marginal hills district suburbs of Ferny Hills, Arana Hills and Everton Hills; a strongly conservative area around Pine River including Albany Creek and Eatons Hill; and Labor-leaning suburbs along Gympie Road and the Caboolture rail line including Strathpine, Bray Park, Lawnton and Petrie (that latter being confusingly located outside the electorate that bears its name). It also extends westwards beyond the metropolitan area to Lake Samsonvale and the interior edge of the D’Aguilar Range, including the townships of Dayboro and Samford. The populous part of the electorate had hitherto been accommodate mostly by Fisher after 1984, Petrie after 1949, and Lilley beforehand.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Dickson was won for Labor on its creation in 1993 by Michael Lavarch, who had previously been the member for Fisher. Lavarch went on to serve as Attorney-General in the second term of the Keating government, before becoming one of its highest profile casualties of the 1996 election. The Liberal candidate who defeated him was Tony Smith (not to be confused with the current member for Casey in Melbourne), whose career imploded when he was questioned by police after being seen leaving a building that housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent, which he did with little success. By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the 1998 election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot, who had announced her determination to win a marginal seat for Labor. At first it appeared that her bid had failed, prompting her to lash out on election night at an ALP network that had deprived her campaign of resources. She would in fact go on to win the seat by a margin of 276 votes, but her career as a Labor MP was limited to a single disastrous term, after which she was unseated by a 6.1% swing at the 2001 election.

The new Liberal member was Peter Dutton, owner of a Brisbane child care centre who had earlier worked for the National Crime Authority, the Queensland Police sex offender squad and the Department of Corrective Services. Dutton consolidated his hold on the seat with a 1.8% swing in 2004 and was subsequently admitted to the outer ministry as Workforce Participation Minister, going on to a minor promotion to Revenue Minister and Assistant Treasurer in January 2006. After surviving the heavy statewide swing to Labor at the 2007 election by a margin of 217 votes, Dutton was promoted to shadow cabinet in the finance, competition policy and deregulation portfolios, and then to health and ageing after he backed Malcolm Turbull’s successful leadership challenge against Brendan Nelson in September 2008.

Dutton’s career hit a speed bump when the redistribution ahead of the 2010 election saw Dickson exchange upper Brisbane River valley territory for suburban areas around Murrumba Downs, making it a notionally Labor seat at a time when few foresaw the problems that would engulf the government at the end of its term. Dutton believed he saw a lifeline in Margaret May’s retirement as member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, for which he nominated for preselection. However, well-organised locals had long had their eyes on the succession and were not of a mind to accommodate Dutton, being readily able to draw on the argument that he would serve his party better by fighting for his crucial marginal seat. Dutton unwisely sought to raise the stakes by declaring he would not fall back on Dickson if thwarted in McPherson, evidently hoping preselectors would baulk at the prospect of depriving the party of his services. Despite backing from Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard, this proved to be a miscalculation: the local preselection vote was won by local favourite Karen Andrews, with Dutton reportedly meeting opposition in the branches of the newly merged Liberal National Party from those who had formerly been with the Nationals.

After alternative options failed to emerge, Dutton went back on his word and ran again in Dickson. However, such was the statewide backlash against Labor after the dumping of Kevin Rudd that he went untroubled, his 5.9% swing being well in line with the state average and enough to secure him a margin of 5.1%. Dickson again closely matched the state trend in recording a further 1.8% swing to the LNP in 2013, putting Dutton’s present margin at 6.7%. Dutton meanwhile has maintained the health portfolio since September 2008, serving as Minister for Health and Minister for Sport since the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

868 comments on “Seat of the week: Dickson”

Comments Page 5 of 18
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  3. CTar1@154

    Bw – Even with the Japanese submarine option our defence people have to require modifications.

    Current size 2,900 tons -v- our requirement 3,500.

    FMD.

    Yep – there was even talk that they could purchase submarine hulls from Germany or Sweden and then opt to buy Japanese drivetrains – which is actually Kockums technology being used under licence anyway.

    FMD indeed – as usual make it as hard as possible.

    http://www.reuters.com/article/2014/05/28/us-japan-australia-submarine-idUSKBN0E82ET20140528

    http://gentleseas.blogspot.com.au/2014/06/increasing-australian-interest-in.html

  4. Zoid

    I gotta admit having seen a few wind farms in my travels they don’t always enhance the landscape.

    But then again power stations belching smoke are pretty ordinary as well.

    It’s kinda interesting to read that long profile on Newman in the Fairfax press today where a few of his neighbours make the point that wind farms help ensure the future of their farms.

    Then top Tory Newman and his mates buy into the district and start sending threatening letters.

    I suspect most of these farmers would be rusted on Tory voters. I wonder if they feel just a little bit let down.

    Then again the Tories, both Lib and Nat, have been letting down their rural constituencies for decades.

  6. Cadbury are doing ok, as this report points out. However they fail to mention that Cadbury sponsored the Lying Friar’s pollie pedal ride, a sleeve logo apparently is worth a $16m contra, whilst Amgen and Pfizer must have put in a motza to get the $20b Medical Research Slush Fund.

    Ans also, sadly, no mention of Mr Furnivall ex-Cadbury, ex-Fiona Nash CoS who put the kybosh on the healthy ratings website.

    [CHOCOLATE maker Cadbury recorded a $127 million profit in the year Prime Minister Tony Abbott promised the company a $16 million grant to revive factory tours.

    The 2013 annual report for Cadbury parent company Mondelez Australia Holdings shows the firm’s profit before tax rose 46 per cent from $87 million to $127 million in 2013.]

    http://www.themercury.com.au/news/tasmania/profit-blots-blots-cadbury-aid/story-fnj4f7k1-1226978294004

  8. Boerwar
    Posted Saturday, July 5, 2014 at 4:29 pm
    So they are actually closing base load power generators.

    Not in gods own earth Queensland! The Tarong power station is to recommission a generator because the price of export gas is so high it wont be available for the good lurkers in Oz.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-03/electricity-providers-return-to-coal-fired-power-as-natural-gas/5567252

    It strikes me strange that Australia is about to become the second largest exporter of LNG/CSG in the world behind Qatar but domestic prices are set to triple.
    By that logic if coal prices took off we may have to burn Tasmania for our energy consumption.

  11. [182
    confessions

    briefly:

    If you’re around check out our animated earth for typhoon Neoguri, set to be a Cat5 typhoon headed for Okinawa!]

    Hi confessions. Thanks – I’ll take a look…

    While looking for something for one of my nieces, I accidentally strayed into the bel canto today and have been fascinated by this recital. It is completely, extravagantly, magnificently off the passion dial…

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iIPOCgyWw-M

  12. confessions

    It is beyond hilarious. This mob have not a shred of credibility left whatsoever. And whatever Paul kelly is bemoaning. Really? After all the crap he espoused during the Labor years.

  13. sprocket

    Here’s the complete lowdown on lobbyists/pollies connections with Big Food. Seccombe is an excellent researcher!

    [Political operatives turned lobbyists

    McDonald’s, perhaps the most aggressive of the junk food companies, employs one of the biggest lobbying firms, Barton Deakin, whose federal director is Grahame Morris, the long-time chief of staff for John Howard. Among its 75 other clients is the brewer Carlton & United. Barton Deakin is heavy with conservative political operatives, and ex-Howard staffers in particular. Anthony Benscher and John Griffin are two more. Then there is the former New South Wales Liberal party leader Peter Collins, former Joe Hockey chief of staff Matt Hingerty, long-time senior Peter Costello adviser David Alexander, and several others. Space does not permit their full resumes; suffice to say the firm’s staff covers all Liberal factions, most states and, collectively, scores of party positions, elected and otherwise.

    Barton Deakin is unusual in the world of lobbyists, in that it is so obviously aligned with one side of politics. Most have a mix of Labor and Liberal affiliated operatives.]

  16. zoom – Sorted but some diplomacy still may be needed.

    Mari – moving on in Europe: Some difference between trendy Greek Isles and Endburgh.

    Rugg up.

  17. victoria:

    Paul Kelly is also trying to tell us that it was a fallacy that we didn’t have a serious budget problem. Obviously we have a budget problem now but only after the current govt has single-handedly done all it could to bring this about.

    These folk are simply delusional.

  18. [If you want to read something hilarious, try today’s editorial from the Australian.]

    What a disjointed rant from the Liberal Booster Gazette. Funny they all but ignored the revenue side of the Budget. Lower taxes is a great slogan for elections but it ruins budgets.

    With Joe Hockey on leave and Morrison off to Sri Lanka I guess it will be the Peter Dutton and Bruce Billson shouty show next week.

  20. 219
    confessions
    Posted Saturday, July 5, 2014 at 6:27 pm | Permalink

    briefly:

    Winds forecast to exceed 150kts.

    …more than 300 km/hr…terrifying

  21. Taxi

    [“Yesterday upon the stair
    I met a man who wasn’t there
    He wasn’t there again today
    Oh, how I wish he’d go away.”]

    With due respect, I’d rather not do Suez or Aden over again.

  25. The usual suspects will still be calling for ‘reform’ when we’ve reintroduced child labour, the Master and Sevant Acts and workhouses.

  27. Ah, ‘The Australian’…

    [The parliament soon could become an arena for deadlock and chaos, a redux of Gillard-Rudd Labor’s forlorn second term.]

    That’d be the second term which saw over 400 pieces of legislation sail through the HoR and the Senate….

  29. [That’d be the second term which saw over 400 pieces of legislation sail through the HoR and the Senate….]

    Abbott can’t even get his signature policy through the Reps.

  31. victoria:

    Dad went on a bit of a rant about Murdoch on the phone earlier. He said the main reason he no longer reads the Australian is because every other serious newspaper in the country is talking about issues, but the Australian is still whining about Gillard and her career before she even entered parliament.

    And he’s right. Talk about editorialising yourself into irrelevance.

  34. I assume that Sam Maiden has received the latest drop from Kevin Andrews, so she can bash welfare bludgers tomorrow.

  35. [WA electricity providers are also reportedly returning to coal in the face of rising LNG prices.]

    I assume you mean domgas, I’m pretty sure no one in WA buys LNG (well unless you are buying it to commission an LNG plant)

  37. z
    Here is a hint if the problem persists: don’t mess around with the whole horse when just the head in the right place will do the trick every time.

  38. [Paul Kelly is also trying to tell us that it was a fallacy that we didn’t have a serious budget problem. Obviously we have a budget problem now but only after the current govt has single-handedly done all it could to bring this about.]

    It is perhaps just too complex for Kelly.

    We didn’t have an immediate budget problem.

    With the lazy greedy baby boomers having taken all the generations before built up and are now making sure you leave nothing to the kids and a planet spiraling out of control to the grand kids in light of the ill-considered Costello – Swan tax cuts, there would in the middle to longer term be a need to either raise revenue or contract services.

    The is certainly no need to destroy whole generations by pricing them out of tertiary education and driving them to hunger and crime by removing the safety net.

    Never ever has a government talked so much about the importance of jobs without doing a damn thing to make sure the jobs are there. Like they just magically appear even if Hockey drives the economy into recession.

  40. When Abbott was wrecking the joint someone who is high up in social research world told me that what he was doing was wrecking brand government. She pointed out that Abbott was going to find it difficult to build trust in brand government when he got the job.

    I thought at the time it was insightful but I was not prepared for the extent to which Abbott is a hopeless brand government restorer.

    In short he was wrecking the joint. He is wrecking the joint. Until the peoples or his party stop him, he will keep wrecking the joint.

    A succinct summary of Abbott’s progress:

    http://nla.gov.au/nla.pic-vn4306283

  42. Got my electricity bill from the PO box today. Could swear when it was first introduced, Synergy used to separate out the carbon price amount on the bill by calling it a “carbon tax”. Now it’s a “carbon component” and “estimated carbon costs” for the bill.

  43. The OO’s tirades become more hysterical (in every sense) every day (and that isn’t easy). Surely, if anything, they reveal a propaganda organisation that realises its power is slipping and soon nobody at all will be listening. Meanwhile, they sit around telling everyone how “eminent” they are and kvetch against the dying of the light.

  45. [zoomster
    Posted Saturday, July 5, 2014 at 5:19 pm | PERMALINK
    Police have just been around..

    Apparently after I rang this morning they visited my neighbour’s, looked at the car and asked him to take a breath test, which he refused.

    That means an automatic court appearance.]

    Refusal of a breath test in Victoria actually means an automatic loss of licence for two years – And a court appearance.

    [The police have assured me that not a skerrick of blame attaches to me, and that if every single horse I owned had been dancing around in front of his car, I would still be in the clear.

    Such a relief…]

    I can understand why you’re relieved, but . . . surely you knew the law, as a ex-councillor and a would-be MP.

    When I lived in a small rural town, for 10 years, on a Friday night, round 10pm, I used to nick over to the Club (I lived across the road) for a few ales.

    Invariably, at closing time, I would take home those worse for wear. If I was in walking distance of my home, I would drive them there (in their car, but confiscate their keys, and walk home) and if they lived further out, I would drive them home and take their car.

    Either way, next morning I always arrived at their home with a couple of Berocca and a few painkillers, and their keys – and explain to them what and why I had done so.

    I find it strange that you rang the police, when all you had to do was “work it out” with your drunken neighbour.

  48. Interestingly, kezza, I didn’t dob my neighbour in.

    Apparently they worked out who I was talking about by cross referencing my name and address.

    It appears he has ‘form’ – they never asked me his name or address or any other identifying features, and I never told them.

    As for ‘knowing the law’, yes, I did – but it looked like heading for a ‘he said she said’ situation, and that’s why the police visit was reassuring.

    And sorry, I can’t see how I could have ‘worked it out’ with a young, drunk male who was relying on the lie to protect his home and job.

    (I did find it interesting – and someone who claims to be more of a feminist than I am must to – that he never once asked to speak to my husband about any of this..)

  50. kezza

    who says I haven’t?

    The issue wasn’t insurance. I was quite willing to cough up if I was in the wrong.

    The issue is that he dragged me out of bed at 2.30 am because he wanted to bully me into supporting a lie, to save him getting into trouble with his father.

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