Seat of the week: Dickson

Peter Dutton’s parliamentary career began when he unseated Cheryl Kernot in 2001, and he was doubtful enough of his capacity to keep his seat out of Labor hands that he sought refuge elsewhere before the 2010 election.

Located at the western edge of Brisbane’s northern suburban corridor, Dickson is one of six seats which have been created to deal with Queensland’s population boom since the expansion of parliament in 1984. From south to north, it presently encompasses the marginal hills district suburbs of Ferny Hills, Arana Hills and Everton Hills; a strongly conservative area around Pine River including Albany Creek and Eatons Hill; and Labor-leaning suburbs along Gympie Road and the Caboolture rail line including Strathpine, Bray Park, Lawnton and Petrie (that latter being confusingly located outside the electorate that bears its name). It also extends westwards beyond the metropolitan area to Lake Samsonvale and the interior edge of the D’Aguilar Range, including the townships of Dayboro and Samford. The populous part of the electorate had hitherto been accommodate mostly by Fisher after 1984, Petrie after 1949, and Lilley beforehand.

Teal and red numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majorities for the LNP and Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Dickson was won for Labor on its creation in 1993 by Michael Lavarch, who had previously been the member for Fisher. Lavarch went on to serve as Attorney-General in the second term of the Keating government, before becoming one of its highest profile casualties of the 1996 election. The Liberal candidate who defeated him was Tony Smith (not to be confused with the current member for Casey in Melbourne), whose career imploded when he was questioned by police after being seen leaving a building that housed a brothel. Smith forestalled preselection defeat by quitting the Liberal Party and declaring his intention to run as an independent, which he did with little success. By this time it had emerged that the Labor candidate for the 1998 election would be defecting Democrats leader Cheryl Kernot, who had announced her determination to win a marginal seat for Labor. At first it appeared that her bid had failed, prompting her to lash out on election night at an ALP network that had deprived her campaign of resources. She would in fact go on to win the seat by a margin of 276 votes, but her career as a Labor MP was limited to a single disastrous term, after which she was unseated by a 6.1% swing at the 2001 election.

The new Liberal member was Peter Dutton, owner of a Brisbane child care centre who had earlier worked for the National Crime Authority, the Queensland Police sex offender squad and the Department of Corrective Services. Dutton consolidated his hold on the seat with a 1.8% swing in 2004 and was subsequently admitted to the outer ministry as Workforce Participation Minister, going on to a minor promotion to Revenue Minister and Assistant Treasurer in January 2006. After surviving the heavy statewide swing to Labor at the 2007 election by a margin of 217 votes, Dutton was promoted to shadow cabinet in the finance, competition policy and deregulation portfolios, and then to health and ageing after he backed Malcolm Turbull’s successful leadership challenge against Brendan Nelson in September 2008.

Dutton’s career hit a speed bump when the redistribution ahead of the 2010 election saw Dickson exchange upper Brisbane River valley territory for suburban areas around Murrumba Downs, making it a notionally Labor seat at a time when few foresaw the problems that would engulf the government at the end of its term. Dutton believed he saw a lifeline in Margaret May’s retirement as member for the safe Gold Coast seat of McPherson, for which he nominated for preselection. However, well-organised locals had long had their eyes on the succession and were not of a mind to accommodate Dutton, being readily able to draw on the argument that he would serve his party better by fighting for his crucial marginal seat. Dutton unwisely sought to raise the stakes by declaring he would not fall back on Dickson if thwarted in McPherson, evidently hoping preselectors would baulk at the prospect of depriving the party of his services. Despite backing from Malcolm Turnbull and John Howard, this proved to be a miscalculation: the local preselection vote was won by local favourite Karen Andrews, with Dutton reportedly meeting opposition in the branches of the newly merged Liberal National Party from those who had formerly been with the Nationals.

After alternative options failed to emerge, Dutton went back on his word and ran again in Dickson. However, such was the statewide backlash against Labor after the dumping of Kevin Rudd that he went untroubled, his 5.9% swing being well in line with the state average and enough to secure him a margin of 5.1%. Dickson again closely matched the state trend in recording a further 1.8% swing to the LNP in 2013, putting Dutton’s present margin at 6.7%. Dutton meanwhile has maintained the health portfolio since September 2008, serving as Minister for Health and Minister for Sport since the election of the Abbott government in September 2013.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

868 comments on “Seat of the week: Dickson”

Comments Page 4 of 18
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  1. Cameron Stuart has an article about a erstwhile Australian submariner who is suing Navy because he reckons that it tried to shut him up by stopping his training contract with Defence when he repeatedly and publicly criticised the build-in-Australia option.

    Apparently Navy likes the build-in-Oz option and this guy (Rex Patrick?) was having a bit too much success in getting into Johnstone’s ear.

  2. Well, the Greens didn’t vote with Labor for the Malaysian arrangement.

    Oh they’re better (asylum seekers) off now aren’t they?

    L-OO-NS extra large (maximum) sized, honestly!

  4. Bw – Even with the Japanese submarine option our defence people have to require modifications.

    Current size 2,900 tons -v- our requirement 3,500.

    FMD.

  5. BW

    [It would save a lot of space on Bludger if we accepted that rummel {is always wrong} and the Greens are always right.] {my edit, FB}

    Better. Yes, it would be imprecise, but the cost-benefit ratio would be very high. I’d volunteer to step in to tidy up.

  6. [Dan Gulberry
    Posted Saturday, July 5, 2014 at 3:07 pm | PERMALINK
    zoomster

    RE: Filling out jobs applied for form for Centrelink.

    After I was retrenched from my last full time job back in 2009, I registered at Centrelink and applied for Newstart, as you do.

    I was required to “apply” for 10 jobs a fortnight (1 job per week day), list those down on a form and then take it with me to my next appointment at Centrelink.

    The day before that appointment, I went to the Seek website and scrolled through all the jobs listed Australia wide on that day.

    I listed down all the jobs I was qualified, or had some experience at doing, as well as some of the “no experience required” jobs as well. Some of these jobs were all over Australia (I was living in Sydney at the time).

    Some of them I listed down (in the form of contact column) as being on the Seek website, some via the company(s) website, some by phone, and some by snail mail.

    I used different pens for the listings, i.e. a black ball point for one week’s worth of jobs, a blue ball point for the next week, a black felt tip for the next week, then back to the black ball point and start the cycle again.

    I was taking a gamble on the Centrelink staff not having enough time to actually check up on any of the listings.

    Anyway, at my appointment I handed the woman the form, she looked at it to confirm that I was applying for a variety of jobs, via a variety of contact methods. After a quick look at the form, she stamped it as having been sighted, and gave it back to me.

    Oh, and do I need to mention that I didn’t actually apply for any of those jobs.

    I wasn’t “bludging” however, I was using my time on Newstart to gain the skills and knowledge that would eventually lead to my self-employment.

    So, Newstart actually served its intended purpose with me, in that it gave me a hand up until I was able to stand on my own two feet.

    Mission accomplished. :wink:]

    Sounds just like the Roman Catholic sacrament of confession.

    Where you’re taught to lie, with impunity, as long as the the procedure is followed.

    [Bless me father for I have sinned. It is three weeks since my last confession, and these are my sins . . .

    This week I said I applied for 20 jobs. But I didn’t. I lied to the State.

    Tsk. Naughty.

    For your penance say three Hail Marys. Go my child, the Lord is with you.]

    Did anyone catch Compass the other week. Forgotten the name of it, something along the lines of Legionnaires of Christ, or some such?

    In that doco, the leader of the European section of this most corrupt paedophilic version said it was OKAY TO LIE to people who didn’t deserve to know the truth (presumably the light and way, neither).

    Sounded so much like Tony Abbott’s version of Catholicism.

  7. Steve777 @ 146

    Exactly. He has made it abundantly clear who he is, his real attitude to the rest of us, and how he intends to rule.

    Politically speaking, there are now three sets of people in Australia: those who spotted the real Abbott in time and never voted for him, those who got sucked in once but learned the truth and changed their vote, and those who continue to defend and vote for him.

    The first two classes are okay. The third can piss off.

  10. Billie

    [Scott Morrison as Prime Minister is on a par with General Pinochet as President of Chile]

    Err, no. A nasty piece of work, but no. Not even close. He may have the same appetite of course.

  11. [BW

    [It would save a lot of space on Bludger if we accepted that rummel {is always wrong} and the Greens are always right.] {my edit, FB}

    Better. Yes, it would be imprecise, but the cost-benefit ratio would be very high. I’d volunteer to step in to tidy up.]

    See.

  12. Hello every one am in Athens looking at the Parthenon as I eat breakfast, as close as I can get as I still cannot walk properly, have had to have help on the ferries etc, the staff have been wonderful as have the places I stayed on the islands who arranged everything for me, including a taxi owned by a friend of theirs to pick us(sister and I) up in Athens off the ferry and bring us here to the hotel Hilton, (charged about 1/2 normal fare so very generous tip)taking out to airport tomorrow, where I am asking BA for assistance Off pain killers but still on muscle relaxants, what a lovely holiday!!! But improving slightly My sister gone to Parthenon and changing of the guard fortuntately I have seen them both about 5 times but still disappointed. Only hope improve in UK

    BK links have made me feel better as did the Newspoll, funny no internet for a fortnight, will now go and look at about 200 emails. Take care everyone

  14. kezza

    [In that doco, the leader of the European section of this most corrupt paedophilic version said it was OKAY TO LIE to people who didn’t deserve to know the truth (presumably the light and way, neither).]

    It’s also the Muslim extremest defence.

  17. There was an article in the AFR about what Abbott said about building baseload power stations.

    The word ‘laughing’ at Abbott was used because Abbott just did not get that no-one in the generation industry actually wants to build a base-load power stations. They said because electricity demand has fallen by 12%.

    I got the laughing at Abbott bit. Everyone who is not actually groaning under the yoke is pissing themselves laughing.

    But the real reason the industry does not want to build base load power stations is because a disproportionate per cent of their profit comes off peak load scarcity. So they are actually closing base load power generators.

  18. [But the senior ranks of the Abbott government believe the ABC’s news operations, in particular, need to return to the core business of broadcast journalism. ”We actually think the media market is best served by divergent voices,” the source said.

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/fears-federal-government-will-stack-abc-and-sbs-boards-20140704-3bdv5.html#ixzz36ZYymqAz ]

    So the government will be also working equally hard to reduce the influence and dominance of the Murdoch family empire in our mainstream media and public debate?

  19. mari

    Good to hear from you. Bummer re your back pain. Hope it gets a whole lot better soon.

    Enjoy the rest of the trip

  20. Mari

    [Only hope improve in UK]

    You’re a bloody optimist.

    👿 And me happy at home this year (but it’s cold).

    😀

  21. hola Mari

    It is effin freezin here so I hope you are warm and toasty in the golden glow of reflected sunlight from the Parthenon’s pillars.

  22. I had missed this report from the other day

    [Former NSW premier Barry O’Farrell intervened in the community consultation process for a wind farm in the Southern Tablelands after being lobbied by the federal Liberal Party’s chief business adviser, Maurice Newman, who owns a multimillion-dollar property near the proposed development.
    “Mr Newman has enrolled private influence over public figures in this matter, and that is totally inappropriate,” a member of the Crookwell community consultative committee said.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/barry-ofarrell-intervened-in-wind-farm-process-at-maurice-newmans-request-20140704-zstrx.html#ixzz36ZaovBn1

  25. CTaR1

    After some discussion, the Jackie ventured out for a Dingo’s.

    Within 30 seconds it was at the door, barking to be let back in.

  27. Was talking to dad earlier who’s long been an avid follower of politics and voracious reader of newspapers for as long as I can remember. He said since the federal election his interest has plummeted. He no longer buys or reads the mainstream Aust newspapers, but just reads the Guardian or National Indigenous Times. Mum has become the same, and now gets the Saturday Paper which she forwards to me each week.

    Wonder how many other Australians are feeling that same detachment and disinterest since Abbott’s mob got elected.

  29. [confessions

    Posted Saturday, July 5, 2014 at 4:41 pm | Permalink

    Was talking to dad earlier who’s long been an avid follower of politics and voracious reader of newspapers for as long as I can remember. He said since the federal election his interest has plummeted. He no longer buys or reads the mainstream Aust newspapers, but just reads the Guardian or National Indigenous Times. Mum has become the same, and now gets the Saturday Paper which she forwards to me each week.

    Wonder how many other Australians are feeling that same detachment and disinterest since Abbott’s mob got elected.
    ]

    ————————————-

    Given up on newspapers, Insiders, QT, ….. and The Bolt report – never watched, but he can get f***ed, just for good measure too …..

  32. briefly:

    If you’re around check out our animated earth for typhoon Neoguri, set to be a Cat5 typhoon headed for Okinawa!

  33. badcat:

    A lot of my friends get their news from social media, so I was surprised to hear of my baby boomer parents turning away from mainstream newspapers.

  35. [ confessions

    Posted Saturday, July 5, 2014 at 4:48 pm | Permalink

    badcat:

    A lot of my friends get their news from social media, so I was surprised to hear of my baby boomer parents turning away from mainstream newspapers.
    ]

    —————————————————

    OK . … I still read the travel section, the green guide, the book reviews etc … but anything related to Abbott and his dodgy bros gang of spivs, shrews, shonks and shysters gives me heartburn and nightmares ….. same with NapWHINE and co … so I just chuck the news section in the trash without opening ….

  36. centre

    [So how legal is what Morrison/Abbott are doing?]

    In my opinion, highly illegal.

    Isn’t there a challenge before the High Court at the moment?

    If so, we’ll see what they have to say about it. If there isn’t, there damned well should be.

  38. Things just get worse and worse – another reason why they want to kill the ABC:

    [Corporate trustees are given virtual carte blanche to administer, invest and disburse the money in charitable trusts, and critics say they charge whatever fees they deem appropriate. Yet as calls mount for greater regulation of the sector, the government is moving to axe the watchdog. Sarah Dingle reports.]

    http://www.abc.net.au/radionational/programs/backgroundbriefing/2014-07-06/5562744

    This is a preview of RN Background Briefing tomorrow at 8:05am.

  39. Thanks everyone for you good wishes even you CTar1 😀 it is hot here of course but willhave a rude awaking on Sunday night I think when we get to London Think you may be right Poroti re weather

    Fingers crossed will keep improving, just don’ever ask me about b*stard ferry staff in Croatia please

  40. Police have just been around..

    Apparently after I rang this morning they visited my neighbour’s, looked at the car and asked him to take a breath test, which he refused.

    That means an automatic court appearance.

    The police have assured me that not a skerrick of blame attaches to me, and that if every single horse I owned had been dancing around in front of his car, I would still be in the clear.

    Such a relief…

  42. [ zoomster

    Posted Saturday, July 5, 2014 at 5:19 pm | Permalink

    Police have just been around..

    Apparently after I rang this morning they visited my neighbour’s, looked at the car and asked him to take a breath test, which he refused.
    ]

    ——————————————

    Good for you, Zoomster ….. his refusal seals his fate …

  43. Journos wax lyrically after a Morrison presser:
    “Yesterday upon the stair
    I met a man who wasn’t there
    He wasn’t there again today
    Oh, how I wish he’d go away.”

  45. Morrison off to Sri Lanka next week. Likely to get the red carpet From kindred spirits in disgraceful Sri Lanka government.

    I have been reminded today that Abbott went to CHOGM in Sri Lanka and gave them patrol boats but his new bestest ever friend, Harper PM of Canada refused to go in protest at Sri Lanka human rights record.

    Hmm

  47. zoomster

    [The police have assured me that not a skerrick of blame attaches to me, and that if every single horse I owned had been dancing around in front of his car, I would still be in the clear.

    Such a relief…]

    Told ya..

  49. Zoid

    Thanks.

    and we all know who is one of abbott’s top business advisers who coincidentally wants to sue his neighbours to stop them building wind farms — Maurice Newman

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