BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate finds the latest Newspoll result checking the Coalition’s modest poll recovery, and drives Tony Abbott’s personal ratings to a new low.

The Coalition’s mildly improving polling trend over the past few weeks has taken a knock after the latest bad result from Newspoll, contributing to a 0.5% two-party shift in Labor’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. On the state-level seat projection, the big move this week is a three-seat shift to Labor in Queensland, where the Labor swing had probably been a bit undercooked on recent readings, along with one-seat gains in New South Wales and Western Australia. However, Labor is down a seat in Victoria after a blowout in their favour last week and also down one in Tasmania, resulting in a net gain of three. Newspoll also provided a new set of leadership ratings this week, which have pushed Tony Abbott out to his worst net personal approval rating since the election. Other figures on voting intention were provided this week by Essential Research, ReachTEL and Morgan. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. briefly

    That seems mistyfying to me, given that only your bank has contact with them.

    Interestingly the same issue was raised in a story on The Checkout recently, in shich someone attempted to send someone some money via SWIFT, and when the payment went astray and he had to be refunded, a huge slice of it disappeared into the maw of the banks involved as financial interlocutors.

    Many of these banks own parts of each other so it is pretty incestuous. I saw a map of the cross-ownership nd it really is like a separate community.

  2. I cannot believe that Abbott could make such a faux pas on “first settlers”. Even his correction was useless.

    It shows what his real attitudes are – whenever he isn’t speaking from a script he’s an unreconstructed dork.

  3. Good Morning

    Senator Jaqui Lambi certainly is calling it as she sees it.

    “@Clarke_Melissa: Jacqui Lambie on Ch9 re her criticism of PM: He can either “run & hide” or “take a bucket of cement and…toughen up.” #auspol”

    “@Clarke_Melissa: Jacqui Lambie asked on Ch9 if she has aspirations to become Prime Minister one day. Her response: “Absolutely.””

  5. [“I guess our country owes its existence to a form of foreign investment by the British government in the then unsettled or, um, scarcely-settled, Great South Land,” he said.]

    Clearly the days of great speeches by statesmen and women are well and truly behind us.

  6. Diogenes

    [People seem to be less grumpy in Singapore than in Australia. And that’s despite the World Cup being free to air in Australia and only available as a $110 package here. SingTel won’t even let any news channel show the highlights; all they can show is still photos.]

    Just remember not to expectorate otherwise you will be dependent on Julie Bishop to get you out of trouble.

  8. 551
    Fran Barlow
    briefly

    Fran, there is clearly an arrangement in place that works to divert monies on a detour while in transit and while on that detour the funds are raided. Funds are effectively stolen while in transit. They are stolen by those entrusted to execute the transfer.

    My client’s bank has been instructed to pay USD to the ANZ. But instead of paying the ANZ, the offshore bank pays (in this case) the CBA. The CBA should forward the funds in USD to the ANZ, but instead converts them to AUD and credits those funds instead.

    The CBA takes a colossal margin on the exchange. Because this is done pursuant to an “agreement” between all the banks it probably includes a profit sharing arrangement between them. This could not work unless all the banks were agreed on the mechanisms, and it would only be in their interests to agree to it if they were obtaining a financial advantage. The banks are running a racket.

    My view is that I was entitled to receive given sums in USD but I never received them. I have been paid other sums in another currency. This was done by the CBA. I am going to pursue them one way or another. They have deprived me of my money. If they argue this was done by arrangement with the ANZ, then I will demand to see a copy of that arrangement.

    The banks storyline is that the transfers are done this way by “arrangement”. So it’s organised. It’s not an error or an oversight. It’s deliberate. It is just a straight-forward conspiracy by the banks to deprive their clients of their money.

  9. Tony Abbott’s plan to restore the building industry watchdog, a key plank of the government’s workplace reform policy, faces an uncertain path through the new Senate, with just two of the eight crossbenchers prepared to pledge their vote to restoring the Australian Building and Construction Commission.

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senate-could-block-tony-abbotts-bid-to-unleash-australian-building-and-construction-commission-20140703-3bbh9.html#ixzz36RsxhfqV

  11. “@political_alert: Greens Senator Sarah Hanson-Young will hold a press conference to discuss immigration issues of the day, 10am, Adelaide #auspol”

    Does not say Central Time so I assume its Easter Standard Time

  12. Presumably Kel Richards, whom I used to enjoy listening to on the ABC, is topping up his super by co-hosting with Andrew Bolt in the usual ABC slag off.

  14. Not just climate scientists who despair at Australian govt policy, now marine scientists on Barnett’s shark cull.

    [More than 250 scientists and researchers have signed the submission to the EPA, including US marine biologist Dr Elliott Norse.

    Dr Norse worked for several presidents and was a key force behind the scenes in president Barack Obama’s push to preserve vast parts of the Pacific Ocean.

    “I think killing sharks is not a good idea,” he said.

    “I think killing apex predatory sharks like tiger sharks is a terrible idea.

    “Apex predators are really important in ecosystems and when we kill them what we often find is really bad things happen.”]

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-07-04/hundreds-of-scientists-call-for-end-to-wa-shark-cull/5570366

  15. Fran

    [That wouldn’t make me grumpy. It’s only soccer, and the cabal running it are crooked anyway. It is an environmental horror. The Singapore regime is unwittingly doing the world a small favour.]

    It’s not fair that just for the action of some opportunistic rats and some fat cats, the whole sport has to be tarred with the same brush. The A-League is general has been well behaved. In the World Cup, other than the bribery scandal involving Qatar, it hasn’t been wholly corrupt in many countries.

  16. Kel Richards was always a RW Christian dufus so I gave him scant attention but last time I heard him, he supported prohibition of smoking. That would be fun to see them discuss, given that Bolt once supported banning pokies.

  17. RonRaaRaa

    FIFA has a $1bn bank account, will pay no tax in Brazil avoiding $227 million this WC, strongarmed Brazil into lifting their ban on beer at Soccer and has awarded the next WC to a slave labour state where soccer can rarely be played.

    Hmmm

  18. [
    IFA has a $1bn bank account, will pay no tax in Brazil avoiding $227 million this WC, strongarmed Brazil into lifting their ban on beer at Soccer and has awarded the next WC to a slave labour state where soccer can rarely be played.
    ]

    The next World Cup is in Russia. The 2022 World Cup is in Qatar.

  20. NSW Court of Criminal Appeal gives Kieran Loveridge an extra three years for killing Thomas Kelly in Kings X.

  21. [briefly
    Posted Friday, July 4, 2014 at 6:54 am | PERMALINK
    542
    Fran Barlow

    briefly

    Terrible story. but isn’t your cause of action against your bank for failing to get your authorisation for the disputed charges?

    Fran, I thought that too and they were my first point of inquiry. But they can (correctly) say they didn’t exchange anything. Both the CBA and the ANZ directed me to the overseas bank – to my clients, effectively. This is completely unsatisfactory, as they must know. I am very
    angry about this. Between them, the banks have contrived a deal by which they have stolen a very large part of my income.

    I will let the bludgers know how I get on.]

    I know very little about interbank transfers and currency conversion. However there is a thing practised by banks worldwide called “dynamic currency conversion”. I thought it mainly affected tourists in foreign countries. For example, you pay a hotel bill in China and instead of charging you in RMB, the amount is automatically converted to AUD. This is supposedly “for your convenience” but the evidence is that you often get a poorer rate of exchange and you may still pay a commission to your Australian bank because the transaction, although in AUD, was conducted outside Australia.

    Australian banks are also involved in promoting dynamic currency conversion e.g. Westpac

    My apologies if this is not the issue affecting yourself but it does seem a way of banks worldwide creaming off bigger commissions when currencies are converted.

  23. Despite being disgusted that FIFA awarded Qatar the 2022 World Cup, if it actually goes ahead there, I’ll no doubt be watching it.

    Can’t wait for tomorrows games. Quarter final time!

  24. Morning bludgers

    Thanks BK for this morning’s dawn patrol.

    I have read Grattan’s latest. She is not at all impressed!

  25. Iron ore exports now falling….

    [The Port Hedland Port Authority has released its June shipping figures and the numbers are a little bit of surprise to me. Total shipments fell 7% to 33.6 million tonnes (mt): In aggregate terms, China accounted for much of the fall but its share still rebounded strongly because other nation’s demand fell faster: There is no obvious reason for this. The main users of the port are BHP, FMG and AGO and nameplate production is higher than this. Indeed, shipments were higher in March, before peak output was reached.]

    http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/

    So much for the economy. LNP policies are depressing the domestic economy at the same time as the export sector is also starting to recede.

    No surprise then to find that Morgan has registered a rise in unemployment, also via Macrobusiness:

    [Roy Morgan Research (RMR) last night released its unemployment estimate for the month of June, which registered a large rise in the unemployment rate to 10.6% from 9.7% in May (see next chart). The rise appears to have been driven largely by seasonality, with RMR registering an increase in the unemployment rate in June in each of the last four years, and also in five out of the last six years. Importantly, however, the measure remains higher year over year suggesting more upwards pressure on the ABS figures. Under-employment has risen to 9.5%..]

  26. 567 Fran

    I only have one thing to say to that:

    Blame the “players”, not the game.

    I am less than thrilled of the idea of all this scandals going on and awarding morally bankrupt Brazil and Qatar the hosting of tournaments.

    However there was no viable contestant to Brazil when it was handed down because then. They had this practice of rotating between continents and I believe Colombia was the only other interested party who then pulled out early in the game. This practice has since been ditched.

    Qatar on the other hand. Bribery, I’m sure of it, and Australia wasn’t all that innocent in it, and from what I heard, all they got was one vote. The US, I believe deserved to run the game instead.

  28. 571
    citizen

    citizen, yes, this has been well-known in relation to the settlement of credit card transactions. The banks apply a “retail rate”. They appear to have recently started to use a similar mechanism in relation to Telegraphic Transfers of larger, commercial sums.

    The thing is, TT’s are supposed to be a remittance from one bank to another. They have deliberately set things up so that a third party will automatically become involved who then appropriates the remittance amount. The original funds are never delivered. It is just plain stealing.

  31. It won’t be long before Abbott refers to non-coalition senators as “unrepresentative swill”

    [TONY Abbott has vowed to stare down opposition to his budget in the Senate and declared it will eventually be passed as Joe Hockey said he would bypass the upper house to implement his asset-recyclin­g program if necessary.

    The Prime Minister, addressing The Australian-Melbourne Instit­ute Economic and Social Outlook Conference last night, said the budget would eventually pass because there was no credible alternative.]

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/policy/we-will-pass-reform-budget-says-tony-abbott/story-fn59nsif-1226977120215#

  32. A blast from some people’s past about to return.

    [The Little Red Schoolbook: A handbook for under-age revolution?

    Just how prurient and respectful of authority people were back then is well illustrated by a decision to reissue The Little Red Schoolbook, which caused a global scandal at its first appearance, in 1969……..you read on and on, expecting to reach the bit that caused the fuss, and eventually realise you have gone past it. ]
    http://www.independent.co.uk/arts-entertainment/books/features/the-little-red-schoolbook-a-handbook-for-underage-revolution-9582977.html

  33. IMO RaaRaa all states should cease bidding to hold these elite sporting events. It is a huge waste of financial and material resources and it debauches the sport. The environmental footprint is dreadful. In Brazil’s case not only did they build a stadium at public expense in the middle of the Amazon for just four games (none of them finals) at a cost of $278 million but they evicted it is reckoned, $250,000 people.

    As far as I can tell there is nothing like a commensurate public good in Grand Prix motor racing, the Olympics or similar. If these absolutely must be held at all for some bizarre reason, then let them pick one place and leave it there.

  34. Rossmore @546

    if those lines are in the actual speech notes its a bloody disgrace.

    He was answering a question, which is why he’s not allowed to answer questions.

    There’s also this quote:

    Mr Abbott said it was a contentious issue, and also an “emotional” one, because “if I want to sell my place [then] foreign investment might make sense, but if my neighbour wants to sell his place [then] foreign investment might be the last thing we want”.

    What the fuck does THAT mean?

  35. Sir Mad

    [Despite being disgusted that FIFA awarded Qatar the 2022 World Cup, if it actually goes ahead there, I’ll no doubt be watching it.

    Can’t wait for tomorrows games. Quarter final time!]

    Go Colombia, Germany, Costa Rica and Belgium!

  36. Narns

    [What the fuck does THAT mean?]

    Abbott has no neighbours?

    Seriously, our system has managed to select someone with the perspicacity and ethics of Homer Simpson as PM. Well actually, not quite as well as that. HS had some redeeming features. He had a child with some intellectual and ethical acumen. He probably meant well.

  37. shellbell

    I can’t decide who I want to win. On the one hand I want the underdogs to win. On the other, I’d love to see a Brazil v Germany, Netherlands v Argentina set of semi finals. I reckon they could be epic.

  40. Joke of the day:

    [CHARM – that’s how the Abbott government will get its controversial budget through the new Senate.

    EDUCATION Minister Christopher Pyne reckons the government will get its agenda passed despite the concerns of key crossbenchers.

    “I’m quietly confident that given the charm of members of the government – and the obvious excellence of our program – that we will get most of our program through,” Mr Pyne told the Nine Network on Friday…

    Opposition transport spokesman Anthony Albanese said it was “a bit rich” of the government to demand respect from parliament colleagues after its performance while in opposition.]

    http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/govt-charm-will-get-budget-passed-pyne/story-e6frfku9-1226977438908

  42. GG #577

    ” here is a credit card that does not charge international transaction fees.”

    Not so, according to the fees described in your link.

  43. I can decode that one —

    people don’t mind foreign investment when it means they get a better price for their house, but they squeal like stuck pigs when it comes to foreignors buying someone else’s house.

    We see it all the time in farming communities — foreign investors are Teh Evil because they buy up land at outlandish prices, but absolute godsends to retiring farmers selling up…

  46. Does anyone know of a study that looks at who voted for the Coalition in the 2013 federal election (esp. income level, education, demographics, location)?

    Am really interested to know who has deserted the Coalition since the election. I imagine it’s those most affected by the budget etc., and those holding on are the absolute conservative base, but it would be great to see a study on this.

  48. 583 Fran

    If we’re to choose which major global sporting event we’re to keep, I’ll stick to the World Cup, thank you very much. It has higher sporting viewership plus with a lower number of totals events and national teams to fly, it will definitely have a lower carbon footprint.

    Good riddance to the F1 Grand Prix in Melbourne and leave me to commute to and from work in peace!

  49. EFA ‏@efa_oz 2m

    RT @EFF: EU #copyright proposals could cut off non-profit websites from access to donors, advertisers & distributors http://eff.org/r.izpx

    AMA President ‏@amapresident 21m

    Health Dept adding more confusion not clarification on Practice Nurses. GPs need greater support, not greater hurdles http://bit.ly/1rqVauU

  50. sortius ‏@sortius 21m

    .@gjfitzgerald the economy is contracting too. Open for business? Nah, open for exploitation! #auspol

    Retweeted by Richard Chirgwin
    Jack Clark ‏@mappingbabel 30m

    Reminder: private healthcare means your GDP growth is tied to insurance companies figuring out how to extract more money from sick people.

    Michelle Rowland ‏@MRowlandMP 11m

    In true Turnbull style, attacking the man not the ball: http://www.businessspectator.com.au/news/2014/7/4/technology/turnbull-attacks-accc-nbn-cost-blowout …

    Scott Ludlam ‏@SenatorLudlam 5m

    oil leaks. engine fires. cracked engine blades. Joint Strike Fighter grounded *again*. http://www.burlingtonfreepress.com/story/news/local/2014/07/01/f-s-grounded-plane-catches-fire-takeoff/11930967/ …

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