BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate finds the latest Newspoll result checking the Coalition’s modest poll recovery, and drives Tony Abbott’s personal ratings to a new low.

The Coalition’s mildly improving polling trend over the past few weeks has taken a knock after the latest bad result from Newspoll, contributing to a 0.5% two-party shift in Labor’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. On the state-level seat projection, the big move this week is a three-seat shift to Labor in Queensland, where the Labor swing had probably been a bit undercooked on recent readings, along with one-seat gains in New South Wales and Western Australia. However, Labor is down a seat in Victoria after a blowout in their favour last week and also down one in Tasmania, resulting in a net gain of three. Newspoll also provided a new set of leadership ratings this week, which have pushed Tony Abbott out to his worst net personal approval rating since the election. Other figures on voting intention were provided this week by Essential Research, ReachTEL and Morgan. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. Good morning.

    Bit disappointed with the Kyrgios loss, but he did really well. I can see that the family support he has might just, might just put him far apart from Tomic. Still a lot of room for improvement though.

  2. News about the collapse of the local infrastructure surrounding the Australian aid program in Indonesia.

    The abolition of AusAID and its supposed integration into the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade was one of the first really stupid decisions made by this government, and with the benefit of hindsight, was clearly a sign of things to come.

  3. Morning

    [IN a dramatic escalation of the ‘stop the boats’ campaign Tamil asylum seekers from Sri Lanka are being ferried back to where they came from by an Australian Customs ship.

    According to well-placed sources more than 150 Tamils, including up to 37 children, have been transferred to the ACV Ocean Protector for the long voyage back to Sri Lanka where the Sri Lankan government will take them back under an earlier agreement.]

  4. And he says this

    [Asked what Australia had done right that the US had not, Stiglitz replied: ”Unions.”
    ”You have been able to maintain stronger trade unions than the US. The absence of any protection for workers, any bargaining power, has had adverse effects in the US. You have a minimum wage of around $15 an hour. We have a minimum wage of $8 an hour. That pulls down our entire wage structure.”]

    Read more:

  5. The Baird government has been accused of ignoring the advice of its own agencies in allowing the expansion of underground coalmining into Sydney’s protected water catchment area.
    The Planning and Environment Department has given the go-ahead to the second stage expansion of Metropolitan Colliery’s coalmine, which includes mining under the Dam Safety Committee notification area for Woronora Reservoir.

    Read more:

  6. Australia has had a victory in the first step of the plain packaging challenge being played out in an international investment tribunal.
    The Permanent Court of Arbitration has ordered that Australia will be allowed to challenge Philip Morris Asia’s right to contest our plain packaging laws, on the grounds that the company only bought shares in its Australian arm so that it could launch the case.

    Read more:

  7. An innovative approach —

    [A SOLAR power company looking for new markets is giving its panels away.]

    […Hire Solar approached Chiltern IGA co-owner Don Alchin with an offer to give his business a free photovoltaic solar system.

    With an expected life of well over 30 years, the 15 kilowatt, 60-panel system installed this week at the supermarket will produce benefits for both parties.

    The agreement means that all equipment, installation and maintenance costs will be recouped by Hire Solar from the power produced by the panels.]

  8. Morning all. Those who defended the supporting of he car industry in Adelaide probably would rather gloss over this consequence of that industry. Clovelly Park is right next to. (And downstream) of the former Mitsubishi site and the Tenneco (muffler) factory. This pollutant almots certainly came from one or the other.

    Adelaide has a world class collection of derelict industrial buildings. As with the Penrice site, the genius strategy of propping them up until the factories have no financial assets left means that when they are gone the taxpayer has picked up the cost of remediating all of these toxic old sites. Clipsall and Hills industries were other examples. It is hard to think of a single case where the State government has enforced environmental legislation against manufacturers.

  9. Victoria 5

    Thanks for the Stiglitz link. He explains it so simply and is absolutely correct. He gave a major public speech – the Joseph Fisher lecture, at Adelaide Uni last week, but it got no media coverage at all. He also talked about rising inequality in Australia, and its link to lower economic performance.

    Have a good day all.

  10. Good Morning

    The reactions to refoulment are going to be interesting. I expct very strong attacks from Labor. I think the MP’s will be as appalled as we are. I also think Mr Palmer on’t hold back.

    Speaking of PUP I like Jacqui Lambi’s comments on why she dislikes Abbott. Slightly paraphrased

    [Parading his daughters around in front of the cameras. As ex military I think that is putting his daughters lives at risk for political gain]

  11. Ok, it’s good that Hockey is talking about moving on corporate tax dodging.

    Given that the measures proposed are what had been proposed under the Gillard government, didn’t Hockey and co scream blue murder about them at the time – I can’t quite remember, but I certainly don’t remember them being supportive of anything.

    And Hockey can’t help being a prick – you’re in government, mate, you don’t need to make everything about the opposition:

    “Labor had cosmetic solutions and we need real solutions,” Mr Hockey said.

    I hope one of the reliable economic commentators dissects the moves and tells us if they are better/worse than what the previous ALP government had proposed.

    As a side note: isn’t the government supposed to be doing a wide ranging taxation enquiry now? How does this ‘announcement’ fit in with that? It sounds a lot like they are being reactive and that they already know what they are going to do and the enquiry is just for theatre (which would, of course, fit everything else they have done), but they’ve been flushed out on this to play reactive politics (and/or make it up on the day):

    The government move will blunt a renewed attack on it by the opposition which has accused it of allowing more than $1.1 billion in corporate tax revenue to slip through its fingers, while adopting tough measures to clamp down on seniors and the unemployed.

    Adults in charge, my arse.

  12. Andrew Laming (MP for Bowman, where else but Qld) has made a right tool of himself. He posted the following to his Facebook page yesterday:

    [ Anyone out there still want the Carbon Tax imposed on everyone else? If so, I assume your house is off mains power and you don’t own a vehicle. When you do that, I know you’re serious about minimising carbon emissions. ]

    He’s since had to deal with a hell of a lot more trolling on that page than he’s used to. He was even stupid enough to answer an email from a constituent with a personalised, snarkier version of that. It was one of those form letter things via the Australian Conservation Foundation, who have put the exchange up on their own page. If you’re on FB, it’s worth looking up both Laming’s and the ACF’s pages for a morning laugh.

  13. The Greens seem to be going the way of the Dems, where differences between the parliametary party and the membership proved fatal..

    (Disclaimer: I’m not predicting, or wanting the demise of the Greens…)

    [Senator Milne, who first flagged supporting the change and then announced her party’s opposition after losing the debate in her party room, could now face pressure for a second U-turn, this time led by a grassroots members’ revolt..]

    [A meeting has been called for Saturday at the Sydney Mechanics Institute, where NSW branch members are expected to advocate a return to the party’s original position in the interests of policy integrity…]

    [..In a sign of the intense divisions over the issue, Senator Rhiannon has invited members to have their say, even though the policy has been finalised, setting up a situation in which the party room has one policy and the membership another.

    The Greens’ constitution in NSW means Senator Rhiannon could be compelled by the membership to vote contrary to her leader, although that would have to come from a formal council meeting.]

    [..t Greens inside the party room and in the broader movement conceded that the main reason for opposing the increase was ”political”.

    The main advocates of the change were Deputy Leader Adam Bandt, Ms Milne’s fellow Tasmanian senator Peter Whish-Wilson, and West Australian senator Scott Ludlam.

    A senior Greens source called it politics over policy.]

    [..Historically, the Greens have favoured higher relative prices for polluting fossil fuels.

    Greens senators have received ”stacks” of emails from disappointed constituents over the reversal, as well as official correspondence from at least one state branch protesting against the decision.]

    The usual disclaimers, which appear to be necessary when posting anything vaguely critical of the Greens (it’s OK to bash the Labor party, though…)

    * I didn’t write the article and am not responsible for either the statements within or the accuracy of the contents.

    * I have no way of knowing how accurate the article is (see above), therefore I will not die in a ditch defending a word of it.

  14. Bird

    I liked Mumbles pithy put down

    Peter Brent @mumbletwits · 17h
    The logic of @AndrewLamingMP: you either live like a caveman or don’t bother addressing climate change. Make this man leader after Tony.

  15. guy

    [Parading his daughters around in front of the cameras. As ex military I think that is putting his daughters lives at risk for political gain]

    “As ex military …”

    Does she think this makes her judgement more qualified than anyone else’s?

    Another nutter in Parliament.

  16. zoomster

    That article could easily be written about the Labor Party on an issue. So saying its like the revolving leadership challenges of the Democrats and the Meg Lees last straw is a bit of a stretch.

    Out of interest is the Border Mail one of the regionals under the Murdoch ownership?

    Thanks for posting it.

  17. CTar1@22


    Parading his daughters around in front of the cameras. As ex military I think that is putting his daughters lives at risk for political gain

    “As ex military …”

    Does she think this makes her judgement more qualified than anyone else’s?

    Another nutter in Parliament.

    Yes, I think she rose to the dizzy rank of corporal.

    As she was busily citing all of Tones failings this morning, I thought she was exhibiting a lot of them herself.

  18. [The federal government is moving to recoup billions by closing loopholes that are exploited by multinational companies to shift profits and losses across international borders to minimise their tax bills.

    Think about how likely it is that this government will actually do anything that will really upset big business.

  19. The Greens are of course having the same problem as any other party within our political system. On the one hand they’re expected to be advocates for a particular set of values, on the other, they can only be effective if they make decisions that take into account the diveristy of the Australian community.

    It is only by happy coincidence that a party gets to do both on any particular issue. Most of the time our expectations for politicians are contrary. We need a system (and an electorate) that recognises the boundary between advocation and implementation.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers. For some reason I slept over 10 hours last night!
    The American woman filling in for Virginia Trioli on ABC24 seems quite incongruous.

    Well Joe Stiglitz doesn’t think much of the budget! It should be interesting to watch him line up against the lovely Judith Sloan on QandA on Monday night.
    This could be fertile ground for law suits by Essendon players against the club.
    Myers shows us how due diligence should NOT be employed.
    And the vindictiveness continues unabated!
    Further down the odiousness scale slithers the Dishonourable Scott Morrison.
    The Guardian contends that these on sea assessments are illegal.
    Julian Burnside has had enough of Morrison’s antics.
    I do hope Hockey succeeds in this endeavour. If they can harness the contempt they hold for the disadvantaged in the community and direct it towards these mongrel companies they might have a chance.
    Even financial planners want a Royal Commission. Over to you Mr Cormann.

  21. Section 2 . . .

    Michelle Grattan shines the light on Abbott’s hypocrisy over Royal Commission subjects.
    Abbott is well and truly wrong on renewable energy.
    We win a critical first battle in the plain packaging battle in the international courts.
    The YMCA has been branded an unsafe child organisation by the Royal Commission.
    Mark Latham looks at life after the Chinese boom.
    Greg Hunt can pick ’em!
    MUST READ! Peter Wicks looks at Kevin Andrews’ attitude to the disabled and employment.
    The New Matilda examines the real Rolf Harris.
    Graeme Innes justifiably belted Brandis at the NPC yesterday.

  22. Section 3 . . .

    MUST SEE! David Pope hammers the Dishonourable Scott Morrison.
    ALSO MUST SEE! Alan Moir puts entitlement into stark perspective.
    Ron Tandberg takes us to Centrelink.
    A sporting special from David Rowe. I’m a bit concerned about Abbott’s racquet handle.

  23. guytaur

    ‘The Border Mail’ is part of the fairfax stable, and this article appears to be from there (as in, not ‘in house).

    I agree that there are similar schisms in all parties.

    The difference is that the Greens – like the Democrats before them, although I admit not to the same extent – are structured in such a way that the grassroots membership are supposed to be the ones who drive policy.

    The Greens are in the situation where their stance in parliament appears to be contrary to their actual policy – hence the ‘it’s not policy, it’s politics’ statement.

  24. WWP

    I think they are doing this tax thing as part of G20 but doing as little as possible. This is one of the main agenda items being pursued.

    Its like FofA they will do nothing until its shown they are doing nothing. Then they do a little to blunt attacks

  25. Laming’s revealing comments:

    Anyone out there still want the Carbon Tax imposed on everyone else? If so, I assume your house is off mains power and you don’t own a vehicle. When you do that, I know you’re serious about minimising carbon emissions.

    What an idiot, and he probably genuinely thinks he makes a killer argument here.

    If this is what the denialist/anti-carbon-price folks actually feel it makes their general stupidity clearer.

    The great thing, in my view, about a cap and trade system is that (properly implemented and accounted for) it guarantees that the overall environmental goals are met, but it doesn’t prohibit any particular activity – it simply prices it.

    Our (free-ish market economy) is based around the idea that people can spend their wealth on what they like. If people want to buy flashy cars and wide screen TVs and live in big houses in expensive locations, and they have the money to do so, we say “ok”.

    With a carbon price, if people choose to spend their money on lighting or driving their car that’s ok, they can do so, they will just need to properly pay for the costs associated with any pollution.

    The carbon price is not about arbitrary judgments and feeling guilty about emitting – quite the opposite it’s about removing any judgment or guilt. The overall emissions target is set dispassionately based on the evidence and advice of experts, and people’s choices about where they spend their money are left up to them.

    In fact one of the big criticisms of cap-and-trade systems from many Greens is that individual action – such as that facetiously proposed by Laming – has no effect on the overall reductions because if a bunch of Greens don hair shirts and reduce their emissions to zero it just results in less competition for the fixed number of permits available causing the price everyone else pays to emit to fall, and the overall cap remains the same.

    ie Laming should be overjoyed at a cap-and-trade system because it makes the behaviour he describes pointless in itself.

  26. zoomster


    I agree with DN on advocacy and implementation. We will have to wait and see if that truly means the Greens will implode like the Democrats.

    For my money way too early to be making such calls

  27. “@latikambourke: PM Abbott says he’s confident of being able to assure Australians no-one in our charge would be harmed following turn back.”

    “@bengrubb: PM tells @3AW693 Sri Lanka is “at peace” when it comes to turning back boats.”

  28. Let’s play Laminglogic…

    * If you think that government should live within its means and not borrow money, then you’d better not have a mortgage or a credit card yourself.

    * If you think the ‘age of entitlement’ is over, and noone has the right to expect the government to ‘subsidise their lifestyle’, then you should expect MPs to pay their own expenses, and be in favour of withdrawing subsidies from the mining and agricultural sector.

  29. “@latikambourke: PM Abbott asked if appropriate to turn asylum seekers back to country they are fleeing. Reiterates that election policy was turnbacks.”

  30. guytaur

    I said I wasn’t predicting the demise of the Greens.

    My first sentence was a bit ambiguous – I was referring to the (alleged) schism between the Greens and their membership. It proved fatal to the Democrats.

  31. Apologies the govt might make some tax changes – my memory is they are largely watered down (ie more big business friendly) versions of labor tax changes. I can check today but I’m sure the thin cap change was a labor change.

    Essentially in meetings labor is hated by big business and the libs are clearly preferred. I was discussing the immediate exploration deduction changes on acquiring exploration assets the other day and several labor ministers got a massive serve (generally people assume anyone in these discussions is a strong liberal supporter) usually I ignore it.

  32. zoomter

    I am sorry I was not saying you were making that prediction but commenting on the article which I thought was making the call too early.

  33. “@Simon_Cullen: Tony Abbott: “Sri Lanka is not everyone’s idea of the ideal society, but, it is at peace. A horrific civil war has ended””

  34. [victoria

    According to well-placed sources more than 150 Tamils, including up to 37 children, have been transferred to the ACV Ocean Protector for the long voyage back to Sri Lanka where the Sri Lankan government will take them back under an earlier agreement. ]

    This article further states:

    [Meanwhile 50 asylum seekers whose Indonesian fishing boat was intercepted north of Christmas Island on Monday have been towed back to Indonesian waters in Australian taxpayer funded life boats behind the 2200-tonne Customs Vessel and ocean going trimaran RV Triton.]

    The Indonesian reaction will be interesting to watch prior to the Presidential election in five days time.

  35. Commonwealth Bank boss Ian Narev will front the media for the first time since a damning report called for a royal commission to investigate its financial advisers.

    Mr Narev will face a media conference in Sydney at 1045 AEST on Thursday, a week after the Senate report slammed the bank and corporate regulator over their response to claims of fraud and misconduct by some CBA financial planners.

  36. “@ThomasKeneally: Has Scott Morrison treated us as fools and Tamils as fodder by giving them back to Sri Lanka? If so, a crime that screams to heaven.”

  37. but, it is at peace. A horrific civil war has ended

    More Abbott nonsense.

    Iran is at peace.
    Saudi Arabia is at peace.
    North Korea is at peace.

    Fleeing civil war is not a condition of having the right to claim asylum.

    Government persecution is the basis for claiming asylum.

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