The Coalition’s mildly improving polling trend over the past few weeks has taken a knock after the latest bad result from Newspoll, contributing to a 0.5% two-party shift in Labor’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. On the state-level seat projection, the big move this week is a three-seat shift to Labor in Queensland, where the Labor swing had probably been a bit undercooked on recent readings, along with one-seat gains in New South Wales and Western Australia. However, Labor is down a seat in Victoria after a blowout in their favour last week and also down one in Tasmania, resulting in a net gain of three. Newspoll also provided a new set of leadership ratings this week, which have pushed Tony Abbott out to his worst net personal approval rating since the election. Other figures on voting intention were provided this week by Essential Research, ReachTEL and Morgan. Full results as always on the sidebar.
Nope, back to normal.
Hmm.
@Just Me/501
Could be your browser having a hissyfit.
Retweeted by Greens
Rachel Siewert @SenatorSiewert 3m
Listen up RT @PWDAustralia:”Ppl w disabilty want to work. We’ve demonstratd that again & again & again, but there aren’t jobs available
It’s what I been saying for ever on PB!!!!!!!
Darn
Thanks for you kind thoughts. I really do appreciate them.
[I hope that sharing your story here on PB has to some extent been therapeutic for you.]
Yeah it is extremely therapeutic. The silence speaks volumes.
Yet, I appreciate everyone who has ever said something kind to me.
I used to hint at it, then I got more explicit, and now I just feel at ease with telling what happened to me.
I felt so ashamed. And I felt so guilty. And then I was so angry.
And now, especially when I confronted the first perpetrator back in 2008 (he acknowledge and apologised), I feel strong. I know it wasn’t my fault.
Even though I give everyone on here the shits, and because this is such a difficult topic, I know, and because I’m such a potty-mouthed person, I’m actually starting to feel a freedom that I never thought possible.
I’m throwing off a lot of the shackles that have made me feel scared.
And, one other thing. As I’ve written a lot of this stuff on here, I’ve also kept it as a sort of diary.
Thinking of publishing the story of my bad family one day.
Since we are cleaning up the record Maddog in my opinion your earlier and post should have resulted in a life ban from this site. There is no way you can defend that kind of rubbish.
Many of us get a little passionate at times and post things that should probably be deleted but that was the nastiest and unfairest I can remember.
I think Kouk is incorrect on most of his predictions. I can’t see the June quarter GDP being negative, I think the next interest rate movement will be up although not until 2015, construction is improving steadily even in sectors like industrial which has been dead since 2008 and construction will contribute significantly to GDP in the June quarter.
He was probably correct about retail but the data we already have makes that an easy call to make.
@davidwh/506
I disagree, simply because of the Budget is attack on spending, I think I know where you are coming from (i.e. http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/housing-construction-boom-coming-says-rba-chief-glenn-stevens-20140326-35i43.html)
But the drop in Retail spending is only the start of it.
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2014/07/victorian-liberals-going-going.html
Victorian Liberals: Going, Going …
My view of the state of play for the Vic state election now due in <5 months.
Also I have a poll on the sidebar so people can vote on whether they want me to split the updates to federal poll articles across multiple threads rather than updating one big thread over weeks or months as I currently do outside of election times.
My aggregate is also at 53.1 this week; it will start next week there too if there are no new polls out tomorrow.
[In June the BLS reports that the number of full-time jobs tumbled by 523K to 118.2 million while part-time jobs soared by 799K to over 28 million!]
US transforming to a nation of part time workers….the reason real wages continue to fall.
Clive being watch by big brother Abbott?
http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/clive-palmer-claims-he-is-under-constant-surveillance-by-spy-agency-asio/story-fni0fiyv-1226977073734?nk=3a32445d15e1af75e0a8f22d479f71d5
Zoidlord my comment regarding construction is based on personal experience. Up to November 2013 we were working at 60% of pre-GST levels. Since December we have grown every month and currently are operating at 80% with confirmed revenue through to June 2015 which will see up get close to 2008 levels. It’s coming in most market sectors except commercial and infrastructure.
I think much of the doom and gloom is as much perception as reality mostly due to a bad reaction to a budget, while unfairly targeted, is hardly the harsh budget many are making out from an overall economic perspective. We has suffered worse budgets than this one even assuming all the budget measures get passed which they won’t. At some point, like with the GST, people will realise the rhetoric is much worse than the reality.
In the meantime construction is getting stronger at long last and thank heavens 🙂
A prevailing view in Australia has been that this sort of thing is just tough luck and blame the parents. I am not so sure that this attitude would hold if people were to actually witness it.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jul/03/a-child-will-die-in-immigration-detention-unless-the-system-changes
@davidwh/511
Once again David, I have to disagree.
The fact that you say this budget is hardly harsh but previously you just said unfairly targeted just says so much about who and what you care about.
Further more you are clinging on the hope that the senate will block most of the harsh measures in the budget.
And as usual, the usual things people say when they supposedly over react “rhetoric is much worse than the reality”.
Your post does not give us any hope anymore, And the RBA just again trashed the economy again by claiming the dollar is overvalued.
Finally, there are lot of things that do not need senate approval.
That is including funding of programs.
I saw Buddhas tooth today, to be more specific it was his left canine. Five other countries also have his left canine but I was reliably informed that this was the genuine article. It is housed in a stupa made of 320kg of solid gold.
In my post above I meant carbon tax and not GST.
davidwh
[I think much of the doom and gloom is as much perception as reality mostly due to a bad reaction to a budget, while unfairly targeted, is hardly the harsh budget many are making out from an overall economic perspective]
Who could forget you love your children. Yeah, you had to make special deals for them, the corporates, while the rest of Australians supported them, even while they were the only ones to benefit and knew it was unjust.
[We has suffered worse budgets than this one even assuming all the budget measures get passed which they won’t]
Bullshit. Tell us worse budget stories? That’s the dream you like to tell yourself. And then you pull the rat out of the hat by saying “it could be worse; I could be suffering.”
[At some point, like with the GST, people will realise the rhetoric is much worse than the reality.]
Who could forget your love for your children. And you’d do anything for them. Even pay a little less tax, because you now can afford to do so while the poor take up the shortfall.
[In the meantime construction is getting stronger at long last and thank heavens]
Oh, happy days. All the better for you to inflate your prices a k a rip off . . .
I didn’t say the budget was hardly harsh I said it was hardly the harsh budget economically many were making it out to be. It’s tough but nowhere near as harsh as budgets we have seen before. It’s just very poorly targeted in my opinion. Middle Australia got off relatively easy compared to those on low incomes and welfare.
If you are going to deliver a harsh budget with real meaning middle Australia have to feel some pain. Personally I don’t think we can afford that just yet. We need to see sustainable improvement across the wider economy first. But we will have to do it eventually.
davidwh @ 511: The GST was different for many people, because it was introduced in conjunction with substantial income tax cuts. The current budget offers almost no such sweeteners, and is plainly going to leave a lot of people unambiguously worse off.
And it’s all very well to seek to assess the budget “from an overall economic perspective”, but lots of voters will assess it purely from the perspective of their household economies; which is fair enough.
As it happens, I’m reasonably well off, and the budget will hardly affect me at all: that’s how I can tell that it isn’t fair.
@davidwh/518
You are obviously on another planet.
We don’t and never should have have a harsh budget because of a few vested interests think it’s good idea.
As continually noted, time and time again, trickle down economics hardly work.
I’m not sure what my children have to do with an economic discussion. You are a real class act Kezza.
I could do without it, Mad Dog.
[davidwh
Posted Friday, July 4, 2014 at 12:13 am | PERMALINK
I didn’t say the budget was hardly harsh I said it was hardly the harsh budget economically many were making it out to be. It’s tough but nowhere near as harsh as budgets we have seen before]
Okay, so tell us the other budgets you’re comparing it with?
[davidwh
Posted Friday, July 4, 2014 at 12:18 am | PERMALINK
I’m not sure what my children have to do with an economic discussion. You are a real class act Kezza.]
Metaphorical stuff, davidwh.
People seem to be less grumpy in Singapore than in Australia. And that’s despite the World Cup being free to air in Australia and only available as a $110 package here. SingTel won’t even let any news channel show the highlights; all they can show is still photos.
GG @ 368 (and others), on the face of it the banks are colluding. If an overseas party remits to the CBA, the funds will first be diverted to NAB. If the funds are directed to ANZ, they will be routed through the CBA. Presumably if they are routed to NAB or WBC, they will be first re-routed to other “intermediaries”. This is a completely contrived set-up that serves no purpose other than to deprive bank clients of their money and of a jurisdiction in which they may retrieve it.
The margins are very impressive and most likely are split under the mystery “agreements” between the offshore bank and the two local banks involved in any transaction.
This is a pea-and-thimble trick. No-one can say where the money is at any one time or in which jurisdiction or by whose authority it is made to disappear and the reappear.
All I know is that I was entitled to receive USD sums and that I was credited with AUD sums. I have been defrauded. I’m sure I am not unique. I will not rest until I have had my money restored to me.
[488
rummel
I’m going for natural to weak La Niña this year……]
Be careful what you wish for. The last La Nina had a devastating effect on inshore fisheries in Western Australia, resulting in the destruction and permanent loss of
two scallop, one crab and one abalone fishery.
@briefly/526
http://www.smh.com.au/business/commonwealth-bank-victims-outraged-by-cba-response-20140703-zsv3a.html
And also, with the CBA being one of the biggest banks in AU, and the harsh budget.
We COULD end up like USA pre-GFC.
Also further:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cbas-ian-narev-on-holiday-while-planning-scandal-boiled-over-20140703-zsv9d.html
518
davidwh
The budget has already harmed the economy and, by threatening the whole-of-life incomes of many young people and their families, will drive changes in the consumption of millions of households. The result will be declining demand, jobs, investment and incomes. The recession in fiscal collections will get worse. As well, the end of the income boom in the external sector means per capita disposable incomes will fall, in the same way that real wages have been falling.
The Kouk is probably going to be right. Export sales have peaked and net exports will now be detracting from growth. Retail sales have been falling as has the value of engineering and construction work done. If there is any growth in the June Quarter, it’s not obvious where it’s going to come from.
518
davidwh
I am not seeing much pain for the rich in Abbott world. Ever.
zoid, the CBA and the other banks have been running a collusive racket in foreign exchange and most likely with interest rates as well.
In my opinion, the banks should not be allowed to go near wealth-management/Super investment funds. They are very deeply and irrevocably conflicted. The result has been the systematic suppression of the returns available to savers and/or retirees.
@Briefly/532
I agree, banks should be doing 1 thing and 1 thing only, BANKING.
75,000 more jobs to go in Mining Sector, means 75,000 more on the dole:
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/jobs-to-go-in-minings-new-phase/story-e6frg8zx-1226974318684#
briefly
[the CBA and the other banks have been running a collusive racket in foreign exchange . . .]
I shared a house one time in about the mid-80s with a bloke who traded in currency – in USD/AUD. For the first half or so of every week he constantly traded, until he’d made his rent. And then he stopped.
Everything he made after that, as a chiro, cash in hand, he pocketed. He owned so many properties.
I never did understand how he made money out of AUD exchange rate. I assume he was betting somehow on the rise or fall.
Good night
163 Jobs to go at BHP:
http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/news/bhp-billiton-to-cut-163-jobs-from-mt-arthur-coal-m
Night all.
Nett_NEWS++™ by @Otiose94 http://bit.ly/1nAtjp1 #FOFA, #CBA Apology of Note(s), by @rowe_david © http://bit.ly/1qBBRPB
And so what Abbott said would never happen, begins.
It seems now you CAN tax your way to prosperity:
[Abbott Government to deliver message that tax reform imminent — either higher GST or hike in income tax
RENEE VIELLARIS THE COURIER-MAIL JULY 04, 2014 12:00AM SHARE
AUSTRALIANS will be softened up in the coming months to accept changes to the GST or face paying more income tax.
The Federal Treasury Department has exclusively told The Courier-Mail that if Australians wanted to keep receiving government services they needed to make a choice – pay more income and company tax or take more pain at the bowser and supermarkets.
http://www.couriermail.com.au/news/queensland/abbott-government-to-deliver-message-that-tax-reform-imminent-either-higher-gst-or-hike-in-income-tax/story-fnihsrf2-1226977044548 ]
About the best thing that I can say about the Abbott government is that it is not boring. Bat shit crazy, yes. Boring, no.
525 Diogenes
[People seem to be less grumpy in Singapore than in Australia. And that’s despite the World Cup being free to air in Australia and only available as a $110 package here. SingTel won’t even let any news channel show the highlights; all they can show is still photos.]
They are a lot less strict about policing public broadcasts of soccer in Singapore. Many coffeeshops (Singapore’s cultural equivalent of the pubs) would show games and sports fans would congregate at these places to watch them. Some show up not even bothering to buy or consume anything.
There was even a news article about some illegal broadcast places in public which the police has begun to clamp down on. I believe the police are doing so not because of broadcast rights laws but because of public law and order.
briefly
Terrible story. but isn’t your cause of action against your bank for failing to get your authorisation for the disputed charges?
Diogenes
[People seem to be less grumpy in Singapore than in Australia. And that’s despite the World Cup being free to air in Australia and only available as a $110 package here. SingTel won’t even let any news channel show the highlights; all they can show is still photos.]
That wouldn’t make me grumpy. It’s only soccer, and the cabal running it are crooked anyway. It is an environmental horror. The Singapore regime is unwittingly doing the world a small favour.
A Tony Abbott Brainfart ™ to open the day, insulting our First Australians
[“As a general principle we support foreign investment. Always have and always will,” he said.
“Our country is unimaginable without foreign investment.”
“I guess our country owes its existence to a form of foreign investment by the British government in the then unsettled or, um, scarcely-settled, Great South Land,” he said.
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-says-australia-benefited-from-foreign-investment-because-it-was-unsettled-before-the-british-20140703-zsvby.html#ixzz36RCl3xGB
[542
Fran Barlow
briefly
Terrible story. but isn’t your cause of action against your bank for failing to get your authorisation for the disputed charges?]
Fran, I thought that too and they were my first point of inquiry. But they can (correctly) say they didn’t exchange anything. Both the CBA and the ANZ directed me to the overseas bank – to my clients, effectively. This is completely unsatisfactory, as they must know. I am very
angry about this. Between them, the banks have contrived a deal by which they have stolen a very large part of my income.
I will let the bludgers know how I get on.
Sprockett 544
Yep, “in the then unsettled or, um, scarcely-settled, Great South Land” will go down a treat in next weeks NAIDOC. What a nice way to respect our First Peoples by denying their existence.
And then follow up with that weasel-worded self correction … “um, scarcely-settled” …. if those lines are in the actual speech notes its a bloody disgrace.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers. Gawd this Seppo on ABC24 has an annoying voice/accent!
The CBA is treading on eggshells.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/cba-sorry-too-little-too-late-20140703-3bbhy.html
No faith in its process.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/no-faith-in-banks-rort-inquiry-panel-20140703-3bbhz.html
Fairfax says the banks need to regain trust.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/commbank-findings-mean-banks-must-do-more-to-regain-trust-in-planners-20140703-zsv2a.html
Abbott’s getting a bit ballsy here.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-calls-for-greater-investment-in-infrastructure-20140703-3bbhw.html
The Essendon saga provides daily opportunities for more legal actions.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/essendon-slams-afl-chief-medical-officer-peter-harcourt-20140703-zsv5b.html
The UN slams the Dishonourable Scott Morrison over his latest AS antics.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/commission-slams-transfer-at-sea-as-clear-rights-breach-20140703-3bbi1.html
And the Dishonourable One is about to try it on again with the High Court and TPVs.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-looks-to-national-interest-test-to-circumvent-high-court-ruling-on-permanent-protection-visas-20140703-3bbbz.html
Here’s Lenore Taylor’s take on it.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/03/revealed-coalition-to-use-national-interest-test-to-deny-permanent-protection-visas
Michelle Grattan says the Abbott government needs to get an empathy gene! Quite a strong article that begs the question of why was she so silent before the last election.
https://theconversation.com/grattan-on-friday-abbott-government-needs-to-acquire-an-empathy-gene-28787
Section 2 . . .
The New Matilda says it’s a great time to be a corporate crook in Australia.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/07/03/its-great-time-be-corporate-crook-australia
A very good look at the school chaplaincy program.
https://theconversation.com/remake-school-chaplaincy-as-a-proper-welfare-program-or-scrap-it-28707
The Independent Australia on Abbott’s aimless austerity. A good review of what Joseph Stiglitz has been saying.
http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/abbott-and-hockeys-shocking-sell-off-stupidity-exposed,6634
Greg Jericho warns against raising interest rates.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2014/jul/03/raising-interest-rates-hammer-australian-economy
The Minister who is a walking billboard for Grecian 2000 shies away from discussion on the minimum wage.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/kevin-andrews-shies-from-cutting-minimum-wage-20140703-zsv81.html
Anthony Ackroyd’s humorous take on Abbott and the budget. Well worth a look.
http://media.theage.com.au/featured/anthony-ackroyd-pokes-fun-at-tony-abbott-5566329.html
Malcolm Turnbull shows us the spivs’ way if ethical investment and responsible tax management.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-urged-to-take-his-1m-out-of-vulture-fund-20140703-3bbi2.html
This confirms it. Napthine DOES have rocks in his head!
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/denis-napthine-happy-to-campaign-with-tony-abbott-20140703-zsv8p.html
More good investigative journalism from The New Matilda.
https://newmatilda.com/2014/07/03/group-colleges-director-had-no-knowledge-political-donations
Section 3 . . .
Michelle Grattan asks how two right wing ideologues got the gig to chose the next ABC/SBS board members.
https://theconversation.com/did-the-head-of-the-pms-department-really-choose-janet-albrechtsen-28777
All those words of effusive praise but no indication of how this soldier died.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/terribly-sad-for-another-loss-in-afghanistan-says-defence-minister-david-johnston-as-lance-corporal-todd-chidgery-becomes-41st-australian-soldier-to-die-20140703-3bbhh.html
Mark Kenny – Abbott’s wild ride is just beginning. Not a bad article.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/the-wild-ride-is-just-beginning-for-abbott-20140703-zsutk.html
Wow! Alan Moir comes on strong over our AS policy.
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/alan-moir-20090907-fdxk.html
Andrew Dyson with a beauty on Rolf Harris.
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/andrew-dyson-20090819-epqv.html
Nice work from Cathy Wilcox. I wonder who she’s taking aim at.
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
Pat Campbell hits out at our favourite Minister.
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
Ron Tandberg gives Kevin Andrews a good serve on his Christian hypocrisy.
http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/ron-tandberg-20090910-fixc.html
David Rowe at a CBA branch.
http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO
And from the Land of the Free –
Rachael Maddow on the slippery slope of SCOTUS judge Alito (GW Bush’s boy)
http://crooksandliars.com/2014/07/rachel-maddow-alitos-steep-slippery-slope
Climate science Kentucky style.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2014/07/03/1311565/-Missouri-Republican-Climate-change-unproven-because-temperature-on-Mars-is-exactly-as-it-is-here
FoxNews plunges further into self delusion.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/07/03/fox-news-job-figures-downplayed_n_5555037.html
This cop from Wisconsin certainly went off the rails.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/03/wisconsin-ex-cop-who-kept-corpes-in-suitcases-claims-he-accidentally-killed-women-during-sex/
You’d be forgiven for thinking there might be something big to hide.
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/07/03/pa-gas-company-gives-residents-50000-if-they-promise-not-to-sue-over-drilling-fracking/
How religious freedom works.
http://www.democraticunderground.com/1017200592