BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor

The weekly poll aggregate finds the latest Newspoll result checking the Coalition’s modest poll recovery, and drives Tony Abbott’s personal ratings to a new low.

The Coalition’s mildly improving polling trend over the past few weeks has taken a knock after the latest bad result from Newspoll, contributing to a 0.5% two-party shift in Labor’s favour on the BludgerTrack poll aggregate. On the state-level seat projection, the big move this week is a three-seat shift to Labor in Queensland, where the Labor swing had probably been a bit undercooked on recent readings, along with one-seat gains in New South Wales and Western Australia. However, Labor is down a seat in Victoria after a blowout in their favour last week and also down one in Tasmania, resulting in a net gain of three. Newspoll also provided a new set of leadership ratings this week, which have pushed Tony Abbott out to his worst net personal approval rating since the election. Other figures on voting intention were provided this week by Essential Research, ReachTEL and Morgan. Full results as always on the sidebar.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

949 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.1-46.9 to Labor”

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  1. [WWP,

    While you make a good general point, I tend to laugh at posters who are so riddled with hatred that they think abusing someone they don’t know and have never met is an appropriate way to conduct a conversation.

    As I have indicated earlier in the thread, I’m more peeved with posters like Frednk whom I have jousted with previously and actually sometimes take the time to read. His comment was very poor.

    Suing poor people is a waste of time]

    My apologies to you and William GG, I had observed your reaction and was impressed and I wasn’t trying to suggest that anyone actually take any form of legal action against anyone (and not to take any action is most likely the advice anyone would get if ringing a specialist).

    I did however have a very strong view you shouldn’t have to put up with that post. I should probably have expressed that view on its own.

  2. Poroti @ 450,
    I like the comment below:

    “that no sex thing before a game thing is nonsense.

    i haven’t had a shag for years and i’m still useless at football.”

  3. BK
    [Goalmouth Scramble: Teams that abstained from sex all eliminated]

    That must have been very frustrating all round.

    Much lol

  4. WWP,

    No need to apologise.

    I’ve been around since the start (often to William’s chagrin). I have opinions and am not afraid to use them. I anticipate the blow back and have a lot of fun puncturing confected outrage and pompous rhetoric.

    I mostly laugh at serious abuse from nom de plumes.

  5. GG
    [I mostly laugh at serious abuse from nom de plumes.]

    I would never accuse you of being a kiddy fiddler. I don’t you. But your vehement opposition to acknowledging that kiddy fiddlers exist in your church is worrying.

    I hope you don’t laugh at child abuse from sex offenders. That would be very offensive to me.

  6. GG

    You’re quite the Ad Hom yourself, aren’t you.

    As I’m a farmer, I’d be donating a shed of straw to you before you’d even know how to begin harvesting.

    Typical suburban cant.

  7. The BOM-Elders rainfall prediction site is very worrying…showing below average rainfall in much of Eastern states running right through summer and next autumn

    It suggests that an El Nino will be a very bad one… if as seems likely…. it now develops

    Oddly the El Nino sometimes causes problems for Govts…as the pressure from rural areas for aid can be very insistent and there is a real inflationary factor caused by rising prices for farm products,damaged by the heat and drought

    http://www.eldersweather.com.au/raindeciles.jsp?lc=v00&dc=disableCookies

  8. Kezza

    When you were old enough, did you inform your sisters about what their husbands had done to you and did you ever have your brothers-in-law or your brothers charged with sexual assault? They certainly deserved it.

  9. [
    Greensborough Growler
    Posted Thursday, July 3, 2014 at 8:45 pm | Permalink

    frednk,

    Making personal accusations you’d never repeat to my face just shows what a low life piece of crap you really are.

    Your comment is all about you, comrade.
    ]
    Be assured, no accusation made; and I am relieved your offended at the suggestion you might not get morality (which is the point I was trying to make); it would seem to be a few men of the cloth that don’t.

    Christianity claims to be about love and understanding, but it isn’t, is it.

    Does the record show nationalism do be the last refuge of a scoundrel, I think it is a close call, religion is up there, and once again I am making no accusation, it’s just an observation.

  10. I am worried about the gastropods, Deblonay.

    Will the new Commissioner Canute of Mass Extinction be able to save them?

    PS I agree with you about whatever you said earlier.

  11. [cud chewer
    Posted Thursday, July 3, 2014 at 9:52 pm | PERMALINK
    William @422,

    There is also endless cricket here at times..]

    Okay, how about this as a topic?

    Do you remember the book “Europe on $10 a Day”? Or even “Europe on $15 a Day”?

    By the time my friends and I decided to travel, in the late 1970s, it was $10 a Day.

    Okay, that was doing Europe on the cheapest possible way.

    So, let’s say it was $10 a day in 1978. Using the RBA Inflation Calculator, that’s the equivalent of $47.21 today.

    That’s the cheapest possible eating, renting, travel, in the poorest accommodation, the cheapest eats, and by using public transport.

    YET, today’s folk, on Unemployment Benefit, are expected to live on $36 a day, in today’s dollars.

    That’s a whole $11 a day worse off than the poorest traveller back in the late 70s. Who were actually trying to find the cheapest of everything.

    Fifty-five years later and the squeeze on the unemployed is to make their lives unliveable.

    What is the govt asking of them?

    To commit suicide?

  12. One of these days I’m going to build myself an intricate diagram with all the names on PB, and arrows representing who hates who.. Its gonna take some work..

  13. [
    Certain matters presently under discussion are of at best tangential relevance to this site’s raison d’etre, and unhelpfully disturbing to its prevailing equanimity. So perhaps we could tone it down a tad.
    ]

    Or as Gus Hedges from Drop the Dead Donkey would say:

    [
    I sense we may be straying down Tangent Boulevard here.
    ]

  14. The masochist in me desires the multi-factorial graph that includes all the different issues and of course the changes in opinion. Not to mention Mod Lib, the defender of the indefensible. That might require non-Euclidian geometry.. 🙂

  15. cc, gg

    Should be easy. I’m told there’s some kind of consensus. How a hive mind can be in consensus, I’m not entirely sure. Perhaps it’s in consensus with its echo.

    Presumably you draw one blob with all the arrows starting and ending with itself.

  16. Why is it self-professed Christians tend to be the nastiest, most selfish, unsympathetic, laziest and most ignorant in any group?

    Something to do with thinking that their confession absolves them from the need of being human in any respect. Maybe why so many of their witchdoctors (Priest, Pastors…) tend to kiddy abuse.

    Believing some magic invisible person in the sky has selected them for eternally sitting around adulating said invisible magician means they can do and say anything within their present reality.

    go figure…but I get to watch it every week.

  17. Darn
    [When you were old enough, did you inform your sisters about what their husbands had done to you and did you ever have your brothers-in-law or your brothers charged with sexual assault? They certainly deserved it.]
    I was 27 when I informed my oldest sister. Her reaction (physical attack) made me not tell my other sister.
    The other sister still doesn’t know.

    Regarding the sexual assault on me by my brother? No, I haven’t even thought of telling the cops. He knows what he did. But will he ever admit it?

    Although in 2010, my younger sister, who was assaulted by the same brother, extracted an apology from him. He has not yet acknowledged what he did to me.

    You probably think I’m a coward, but it’s very difficult to understand a family that always kept secrets. And all us within that family were made to feel as if we were betraying the family if we said anything.

    I backed my sister in her allegations against my brother.Because I saw it; and eventually saved her. I was able to be her witness. And he eventually admitted what he’d done. Very emotional time. Especially since our parents had both passed away.

    We didn’t want to take our brothers to court. We just wanted acknowledgement. My sister has since passed away. I’m just grateful she got some solace of soul.

    And I still rai; against the night, as you observe here. One day . . .

  18. [Christianity claims to be about love and understanding, but it isn’t, is it.]

    Mate Christianity has its foundation in a never ending layer of guilt trips. Guilt trips to get them in, endless weekly guilt trips to keep them in, and guilt trips to shut them up.

  19. cc, dn,

    Non parallytic statistical analysis will not solve your problem.

    Paralytical stats will do the job!

  20. [cud chewer
    Posted Thursday, July 3, 2014 at 10:10 pm | PERMALINK
    Speaking of the RBA inflation calculator, consider this.]

    Yeah, but

    what are you going to say about today’s unemployment benefit, Newstart?

    As I just pointed out, today’s young folk are $11 a day (that’s $77 a week) worse off than students travelling in Europe in 1978.

    WTF’s going on here?

  21. Double Dissolution ?

    Tony spoiling for a fight with the HC, a loss is likely again, so why do it?
    To wind up the racist ratbags Howard let out from under their rock

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jul/03/revealed-coalition-to-use-national-interest-test-to-deny-permanent-protection-visas

    “The government is now drawing on a regulation in the Migration Regulations 1994 to give the minister the power to argue that it is against the national interest for any refugee to be granted a permanent visa – as the high court decision would require.

    The move aims to circumvent the high court as well as the Senate, and sets the stage for a high court battle, with refugee lawyers returning to the high court Thursday to argue that the government was planning to unlawfully breach the court’s earlier ruling. Chief justice Robert French ruled that the case would be heard in two weeks.”

    It will be Tony in defence of democracy ( how dare they vote down our mandate & budget)& the rule of ” we will decide who comes to this country”

  22. WWP Just for the record. I believe that you are a sanctimonious blow-in. You have no idea about the way that GG has behaved on here over several years. Your support for sky fairy believers is commenadable in your own mind, I’m sure, but the GG’s of this world use the mental turmoil resulting from the intellectually incompatible ideas flailing around in their fevered minds as an excuse to viciously chop away at others, who are also damaged souls. The result is true nastiness. Soemtimes it is necessary, in my view, to point out the reality of GG’s position, which I believe to be morally indefensible. He is truly a sad case. It would appear that something quite nasty happened to him back in the days when he was being brainwashed by the Roman church’s propagandists. The result is not at all pretty.

  23. Okay, Newstart is $36 a day.

    Jeez, we all say we can live on that.

    But, we’re talking feeding ourselves. Sure, $36 will give us a substantial three meals a day.

    Easy peasy.

    But, when the pollies are talking $36 a day, we’re talking everything.

    We’re talking rent; we’re talking utilities; we’re talking food; we’re talking toiletries; we’re talking essentials; we’re talking insurance; we’re talking clothing; we’re talking school fees; we’re talking uniforms; we’re talking excursions; we’re talking car; we’re talking replacements; we’re talking incidentals.

    On the off chance we’ll find a job?

  24. Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk · 6h

    As the economy hits the wall, the RBA moves to cut interest rates http://thekouk.com/blog/as-the-economy-hits-the-wall-the-rba-moves-to-cut-interest-rates.html#.U7T-PBa26f0

    Retweeted by Stephen Koukoulas
    Jamie McGeever @ReutersJamie · 4m

    That’s 45 consecutive months of job creation in the United States. Only 4 more, and it will be the longest run on record.

    What is the difference? Oh that’s right, one had continuous stimulus packages.

  25. [I’m going for natural to weak La Niña this year……]

    Good for you babe. Nothing like owning your inner nuff nuff and doin’ it loud and proud.

  26. [Tony spoiling for a fight with the HC, a loss is likely again, so why do it?
    To wind up the racist ratbags Howard let out from under their rock]

    He also has a major budget problem. It has exposed his real overall agenda, and so he needs to drag the spotlight away from it.

  27. Will Morrison’s latest move provide the HC with the opportunity to rule that refuges arriving by boat is NOT illegal & the applicable test of legality is ” are they refuges”

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-looks-to-national-interest-test-to-circumvent-high-court-ruling-on-permanent-protection-visas-20140703-3bbbz.html

    The reasons for refusing a visa include not “rewarding” those who arrive “illegally” with the same permanent visa outcomes that are available to those who “who abide by Australia’s visa requirements”.

  28. Kezza

    I don’t think you are a coward. I don’t think anyone would think that. To have to deal with not one but a series of shocking sexual assaults from different family members must have taken a lot of courage just to carry on, let alone what might have happened if you had reported the perpetrators to the police.

    I hope that sharing your story here on PB has to some extent been therapeutic for you.

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