Seat of the week: Maribyrnong

Bill Shorten’s electoral home in Melbourne’s inner north-west extends from marginal Essendon and Moonee Ponds in the east to rock-solid Labor St Albans in the west.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Bill Shorten’s electorate of Maribyrnong has covered a shifting area around Essendon in Melbourne’s inner north-west since its creation in 1906. It presently extends westwards from Essendon through Niddrie and Avondale Heights to St Albans. Labor has held the seat without interruption since 1969, prior to which it was held for the Liberals for 14 years by Philip Stokes. Stokes had emerged a beneficiary of the Labor split ahead of the 1955 election, at which preferences from the ALP (Anti-Communist) candidate enabled him to unseat Labor’s Arthur Drakeford by 114 votes, in what was only Labor’s second defeat since 1910. The seat finally returned to the Labor fold at the 1969 election when it was won by Moss Cass, who secured enough of a buffer through successive swings in 1972 and 1974 to survive Labor’s electoral winter of 1975 and 1977. In 1983 he bequeathed a double-digit margin to his successor Alan Griffiths, who enjoyed a 7.4% boost when the 1990 redistribution added St Albans, which remains a particularly strong area for Labor. Griffiths was succeeded in 1996 by Bob Sercombe, who chose to bow out at the 2007 election rather than face preselection defeat at the hands of Australian Workers Union national secretary Bill Shorten.

Shorten came to parliament with a national reputation after positioning himself as the public face of the Beaconsfield mine disaster rescue effort in April-May 2006, and wielded great influence in the Victorian party factional system as a chieftain of the Right. However, Shorten was known to be hostile to Kevin Rudd, and rose no higher than parliamentary secretary for disabilities and children’s services during Rudd’s first term as Prime Minister. Shorten then emerged as one of the initiators of the June 2010 leadership coup, together with Victorian Right colleague David Feeney, and interstate factional allies Mark Arbib in New South Wales and Don Farrell in South Australia. After the 2010 election he was promoted to the outer ministry as Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation, and he then won promotion to an expanded cabinet by further taking on the employment and workplace relations portfolio in December 2011. Nonetheless, Shorten’s political stocks were generally thought to have been depleted by the political travails of Julia Gillard, whom he crucially abandoned in June 2013 to facilitate Kevin Rudd’s return. For this he was rewarded with a portfolio swap of financial services and superannuation for education.

After the 2013 election defeat, Shorten and Anthony Albanese of the Left emerged as the two candidates for the first leadership ballot held under the party’s new rules, in which the vote was divided evenly between the party membership and caucus. Albanese proved the clear favourite of the membership, in part reflecting the taint Shorten was perceived as carrying from his involvement in successive leadership coups against sitting prime ministers. However, Shorten’s 55-31 victory in the caucus vote was just sufficient to outweigh his 59.92%-40.08% deficit in the ballot of approximately 30,000 party members, the combined result being 52.02% for Shorten and 47.98% for Albanese.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Seat of the week: Maribyrnong”

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  2. [I note that Bludgertrack is showing a gain of seven seats by Labor in Victoria if an election were held now. Realistically do you think that is feasible?]

    It’s what would likely happen if there was indeed a 9.4% swing and a two-party preferred approaching 60-40. To the extent that anything is possible, that is. However, the short-term point to be made is that it’s influenced by what is certainly a rogue 65-35 result in the Victorian Nielsen breakdown last week, and that it will almost definitely come off as that result washes out of the system. The long-term point is that federal election results in particular are never as polarised as that, and there would need to be an unforeseen calamity for it to occur in any real-world election in the near future.

  3. Steve777

    [It’s class warfare. And the fat, greedy, lazy slugs and their political sock puppets are winning.]

    Indeed that’s so, and it will likely continue to be so for as long as working people remain disengaged from politics, essentially outsourcing it to the major parties, who in turn outsource it to the boss class. I spend a fair bit of time assailing the politics of those parties, and if course their officers are the primary architects of the political weakness of working people, but the problem lies in the last instance with the failure of those of us who favour social justice, equity and reason to carry the case for these ends to working people more broadly.

    That’s not an easy thing to do. The ruling class rules not by accident but because it has enormous cultural advantages. As Marx notes in The German Ideology

    [The ideas of the ruling class are in every epoch the ruling ideas, i.e. the class which is the ruling material force of society, is at the same time its ruling intellectual force. The class which has the means of material production at its disposal, has control at the same time over the means of mental production, so that thereby, generally speaking, the ideas of those who lack the means of mental production are subject to it.]

    The parties that can exist under capitalism take as their starting point the relationship that workers bear the rulers — that they owe the rulers their labour and their loyalty. This is not mere servility, Until one can imagine an alternative that us viable, most will cling to what is in preference to what might be. And of course, the distress at injustice towards others is tempered by the fear that one may have it fall upon one’s own head. Anyone proposing an alternative set of social arrangements gets set a very high bar, and so the temptation is to choose a party that proposes very little change at all.

    Of course, that makes the differences between the parties matters of mere emphasis rather than quality as both argue the toss about which policies are best suited to continuing to live more or less as we are already. No policy which can be presented as having the potential to harm the existing order will be deemed ‘mainstream’ by the bosses’ mouthpieces. Even a reform as modest as explicitly pricing carbon — something that ought in theory to be entirely compatible with capitalism — ultimately ran foul of this criterion. This ought to underline who really is in charge and one suspects that most working people get this inconvenient truth. They just don’t know what can be done about it, and so most of them choose dissonance because it’s less painful. They hope perhaps that they personally won’t suffer too badly, and that’s a position that allows the rulers to pick off every soft target in the populace.

    Those of us who really are exercised by social justice and inclusion need not merely to point this out but to articulate a vision of something fundamentally better as plausible, and most of all present a vehicle for getting there. That’s no easy task and we must accept that we may not live to see that vision triumph but there is nothing else worth fighting for, IMO. Everything else in politics is simply a waste of time.

  6. Sorry, couldn’t spot the Qld thread.

    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: LNP 49 (-3) ALP 51 (+3)

    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll QLD State Primary Votes: LNP 32 (-8) ALP 34 (-2) GRN 8 (0)

  10. Henry,

    [Are they serious? South Park?
    I want to live there.]

    I don’t want to live in South Park but unless something changes I will.

  13. deblonay
    Posted Sunday, June 29, 2014 at 8:26 pm | Permalink

    A wise and witty piece from”Taki” on the History of Stupidity in the Middle East from 1918 onwards
    ______________
    He sees the Saudis and the Qataris as prinicpal funders and supporters of then mad islamist groups now operating on unlimited funds

    http://takimag.com/article/a_short_history_of_stupidity_in_the_middle_east_taki#axzz361PvwW8m

    I enjoyed your link very much and it appears that Mesopotamia will eventually revert back to its historic boundary. I particularly liked the paragraph:
    “We oppose all foreign intervention and interference,” writes the Saudi envoy, and as diplomats are supposed to go abroad and lie nonstop, there is nothing anyone can do about that false statement, except list it along with the other two biggest lies: money means nothing to me, and let me put it in just a little bit.”

  14. trawler@756

    Sorry, couldn’t spot the Qld thread.

    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll QLD State 2 Party Preferred: LNP 49 (-3) ALP 51 (+3)

    @GhostWhoVotes
    #Newspoll QLD State Primary Votes: LNP 32 (-8) ALP 34 (-2) GRN 8 (0)

    I must be confused. How can there be a grand total of -10 in the primary votes? Isn’t it a zero sum game?

    Am I missing something obvious?

    ????

  15. Maybe there are a lot of people not giving their primary vote?

    32 + 34 + 8 = 74

    this leaves 26% unaccounted for. That’s a lot of “don’t knows”.

  16. It’s Newspoll, PUP is submerged into ‘others’ and we don’t have a separate breakdown for them.
    LNP 32
    ALP 34
    Grn 8
    KAP 4

    Other 22%

    So I’m guessing the major chunk of the 22% that is ‘others’ is actually PUP, probably scoring somewhere between 16-20%.

    I would guess PUP has received a fair chunk of ‘pox on both houses’ voters and so I further guess that the LNP and ALP are bleeding profusely to PUP – in Qld anyway.

    Guessing even further based on this it may be that PUP is doing disproportionately well in QLD than elsewhere and the recent federal polls which have very little change in ‘other’ since the election suggests to me that PUP’s major influence comes from Qld.
    If their support is in the vicinity of 16-20% at state level it may have increased substantially there federally since the federal election when they got just under 10% in the Senate.

  17. Thanks fredex, much appreciated, that makes sense.

    Leaving out the information you have filled in makes their figures not nearly as important and useful as they could have been.

  19. It looks like in Qld, it’s not so much that the ALP has gained the lead but rather the LNP have lost it. It must be all this meddling around with the Legal appointments.

    It does look like Newspoll is trying to downplay the significance of the PUP’s rise.

  20. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    I have bad news. It appears that Fairfax has closed the back door through incognito/private browsing which now limits one to 30 article reads per month. I have just reached mine with the SMH.

    Scott Morriscum “goes quiet” says the SMH.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/scott-morrison-goes-quiet-as-fate-of-two-boatloads-kept-a-secret-20140629-3b21q.html
    Judith Ireland on the vulgar pension changes.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/call-for-radical-pension-change-for-disabled-20140629-3b21f.html
    And it gets even more draconian.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/abbott-government-unveils-plan-to-restrict-how-young-people-spend-dole
    Abbott, the ALP and progressives. A good read.
    http://www.independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/tony-abbott-the-alp-and-progressives,6616
    Tony Fitzgerald has had more than enough of Newman’s megalomania.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/tony-fitzgerald-tears-into-queensland-government-for-abuse-of-power
    Now the scientists have slammed Abbott over water policy.
    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/scientists-blast-abbott-government-water-policies-20140629-zsq4w.html
    Kenneth Davidson examines the basis if the budget.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/is-it-really-so-radical-to-support-higher-taxes-to-fund-a-better-society-20140627-zsokc.html
    The New Matilda examines the Liberals’ new catchphrase “personal responsibility”.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/06/29/budget-and-personal-responsibility-piercing-neoliberal-veil

  21. Section 2 . . .

    Looks like leopards really don’t change their spots.
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/pope-francis-woman-from-rib-avoids-pledge-reform-catholic-church
    Erica Betz shows his true colours and has the gall to invoke “mateship”.
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/public-service/public-servants-could-save-mates-jobs-says-senator-eric-abetz-20140629-zsmn8.html
    An open letter to Abbott on climate change policy.
    https://newmatilda.com/2014/06/29/open-letter-prime-minister-climate-change
    Beautiful work from Cathy Wilcox.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html
    Pat Campbell on the role of social media in Jihadist wars.
    http://www.theage.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/pat-campbell-20120213-1t21q.html
    David Rowe on Suarez’s exclusion.
    http://www.afr.com/p/national/cartoon_gallery_david_rowe_1g8WHy9urgOIQrWQ0IrkdO

  23. Morning all. Thanks BK. Not having had the workaround for SMH, I have found that with the thirty article limit applying separately to the Age, Brisbane Times, Canberra Times and WA Today, you can read a lot of articles. I then ration my SMH views to things I can’t read elsewhere like Mike Carlton. When Gina leaves I will pay them my money.

  24. Socrates

    Not wonting to undermine the revenue required to pay for “good journalism”, using Safari in Private mode works on SMH & NYT

  28. I am not sure of the political significance but clearly this is important news. The Brisbane Lions won, despite carrying the burden of Campbell Newman being premier.
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-28/lions-farewell-brown-with-tight-win/5557564?WT.ac=statenews_qld

    Their fortunes have sunk under Newman, with many young players leaving the state/team. I sort of joke, but the dodgy real estate deal that involved them and Springfield developers is emblematic of Qld under Newman.

  29. Good Morning

    Confessions

    Excellent point

    Those using Safari complain to Apple that the privacy function is not working.

  30. The Daily Telegraph is reaching Hackgate standards of invading privacy.

    They are wanting the ABC to terminate any relationship with Will Anderson as they publish a photo of him smoking a bong in his private life.

  31. http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-30/foi-documents-reveal-concerns-over-reef-marina-development/5555746

    [Both the Queensland and federal governments have given the green light to a $600 million eco-tourism resort on Great Keppel Island, the first major development within the reef in two decades.

    But in approving the development’s marina and sewage systems, the marine park authority found the proponent’s environmental impact statement was contradictory, vague and missing a substantial amount of information.

    Marine park officers also warned that the impacts of the development on water quality and coral communities on nearby vulnerable reefs could not be adequately mitigated.

    But just two months later, the marine park authority approved the development subject to conditions.

    There has not been a tourism project of this scale in Queensland in a quarter of a century.]

  37. http://www.crikey.com.au/2011/03/10/aluminium-smelting-the-best-bang-for-your-fossil-fuel-subsidy-buck/

    [The aluminium smelting industry’s argument that it should benefit from generous handouts under a carbon price – as it would have been under the CPRS – is an extraordinary demand for more assistance beyond the billions these wealthy transnationals have received from state governments over recent decades.
    It also shines a light on what opponents of climate change action prefer to ignore – that for all their criticism of “green jobs”, we currently spend billions subsidising “brown jobs”.

    Rather than “compensate” the aluminium smelting industry for its carbon emissions, at $70,000 per worker, it’s time to end the subsidies that prop up an industry that is far more emissions-intensive than its international competitors.]

    Deja vu all over again.

  38. Oh sorry, I suppose I should have pointed out that BK’s Crikey article on aluminium subsidies is more than 3 years old.

  39. [Tao de Haas ‏@TaodeHaas 27m
    So the IPA, arm of the LNP, funded by wealthy companies incl tobacco, oil & mining retain their tax deductible status? Words fail me #auspol]

  40. [Two China experts have warned that Australia’s relationship with the emerging giant will become more ­complicated as our economic reliance grows and China and the US test each other’s dominance in the region.

    Wu Xinbo, the executive dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, says that while China would never expect Australia to abandon its alliance with the US it will increasingly have to question how far security co-operation can go without jeopardising an economic alliance with China.

    This was particularly true at a time when the US did not have the financial resources to back its determination to maintain its hegemony in the Pacific and was relying on allies such as Japan, the Philippines and Australia to fill the gap, he said.
    . . .
    It is understood some ­Chinese businesses with significant investments in Australia had recently been urged by Beijing to slow down their spending until the relationship was back on track.]

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/china_relationship_set_to_get_harder_R9OI5tikTD0T3r1TtDN6rL

  41. [It does look like Newspoll is trying to downplay the significance of the PUP’s rise.]

    My guess is that many LNP voters are parking their vote with PUP. Most will return to the LNP come election time.

  42. 791 kakuru

    [My guess is that many LNP voters are parking their vote with PUP. Most will return to the LNP come election time.]

    But a poll is a snap shot of voter intentions regardless of what their party membership is, and who they would vote prior to and after this poll.

  43. [The Federal Government is bracing for a surge in anti- Australian sentiment as it prepares to turn back an asylum seeker boat to Java in the middle of the Indonesian presidential election.

    The West Australian understands the coalition Government had decided it could not “blink” on boat turn-backs, despite the risk the hardline policy could inflame anti-Western fervour that had featured heavily in the lead-up to the July 9 election.

    Two asylum seeker boats carrying more than 200 people have been intercepted by Australian Customs in recent days.

    One carrying 153 people, including 37 children, was intercepted about 250km west of Christmas Island on Saturday after setting sail from southern India on June 12. They claim to be Sri Lankan Tamils.

    The second boat was intercepted by ACV Triton between Christmas Island and Java late last week.

    It is understood that authorities intend to return this boat to Indonesia, but it is unclear what was being done with the bigger boatload of asylum seekers.]

    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24345600/turn-backs-risk-indon-fury/

  44. [grace pettigrew ‏
    Press Gallery misses central message of vested interest McClure: taxpayers will fund Religious Orgs to transition DSP into “work” #auspol ]

  45. Morning all

    If the asylum boats did not originate from Indonesia, but India as claimed. How can our pathetic govt return these people to Indonesia

  47. Congratulations to Ben Williams who did an admirable job refereeing the Greece Costa Rica game.

    Hopefully he will get another run later in the tournament.

    He seems to run faster than most of the players which makes sense if you are a PE teacher in the ACT. If you don’t run fast enough body bits snap freeze and fall off.

  48. The country’s top prudential regulator has called on the federal government to strengthen its independence against ministerial interference that could water down its strict approach to banking supervision.

    John Laker, the executive chairman of the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, said the regulator should have the same protection from government interference as the Reserve Bank of Australia.

    http://www.afr.com/p/business/financial_services/apra_boss_john_laker_tells_safety_13wl4XKIBr1pVmbiCrp16L

  49. LAURA TINGLE AND LISA MURRAY
    Two China experts have warned that Australia’s relationship with the emerging giant will become more ­complicated as our economic reliance grows and China and the US test each other’s dominance in the region.

    Wu Xinbo, the executive dean of the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, says that while China would never expect Australia to abandon its alliance with the US it will increasingly have to question how far security co-operation can go without jeopardising an economic alliance with China.

    http://www.afr.com/p/national/china_relationship_set_to_get_harder_R9OI5tikTD0T3r1TtDN6rL

  50. Victoria

    [If one of the asylum boats did not originate from Indonesia, but India as claimed, how can our pathetic govt return these people to Indonesia?]

    One of the aims of asylum seeker policy is to kettle asylum seekers at major aggregation points. That’s also why the Indonesians aren’t so keen on stopping the boats.

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