Seat of the week: Maribyrnong

Bill Shorten’s electoral home in Melbourne’s inner north-west extends from marginal Essendon and Moonee Ponds in the east to rock-solid Labor St Albans in the west.

Red and blue numbers respectively indicate size of two-party majority for Labor. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Bill Shorten’s electorate of Maribyrnong has covered a shifting area around Essendon in Melbourne’s inner north-west since its creation in 1906. It presently extends westwards from Essendon through Niddrie and Avondale Heights to St Albans. Labor has held the seat without interruption since 1969, prior to which it was held for the Liberals for 14 years by Philip Stokes. Stokes had emerged a beneficiary of the Labor split ahead of the 1955 election, at which preferences from the ALP (Anti-Communist) candidate enabled him to unseat Labor’s Arthur Drakeford by 114 votes, in what was only Labor’s second defeat since 1910. The seat finally returned to the Labor fold at the 1969 election when it was won by Moss Cass, who secured enough of a buffer through successive swings in 1972 and 1974 to survive Labor’s electoral winter of 1975 and 1977. In 1983 he bequeathed a double-digit margin to his successor Alan Griffiths, who enjoyed a 7.4% boost when the 1990 redistribution added St Albans, which remains a particularly strong area for Labor. Griffiths was succeeded in 1996 by Bob Sercombe, who chose to bow out at the 2007 election rather than face preselection defeat at the hands of Australian Workers Union national secretary Bill Shorten.

Shorten came to parliament with a national reputation after positioning himself as the public face of the Beaconsfield mine disaster rescue effort in April-May 2006, and wielded great influence in the Victorian party factional system as a chieftain of the Right. However, Shorten was known to be hostile to Kevin Rudd, and rose no higher than parliamentary secretary for disabilities and children’s services during Rudd’s first term as Prime Minister. Shorten then emerged as one of the initiators of the June 2010 leadership coup, together with Victorian Right colleague David Feeney, and interstate factional allies Mark Arbib in New South Wales and Don Farrell in South Australia. After the 2010 election he was promoted to the outer ministry as Assistant Treasurer and Minister for Financial Services and Superannuation, and he then won promotion to an expanded cabinet by further taking on the employment and workplace relations portfolio in December 2011. Nonetheless, Shorten’s political stocks were generally thought to have been depleted by the political travails of Julia Gillard, whom he crucially abandoned in June 2013 to facilitate Kevin Rudd’s return. For this he was rewarded with a portfolio swap of financial services and superannuation for education.

After the 2013 election defeat, Shorten and Anthony Albanese of the Left emerged as the two candidates for the first leadership ballot held under the party’s new rules, in which the vote was divided evenly between the party membership and caucus. Albanese proved the clear favourite of the membership, in part reflecting the taint Shorten was perceived as carrying from his involvement in successive leadership coups against sitting prime ministers. However, Shorten’s 55-31 victory in the caucus vote was just sufficient to outweigh his 59.92%-40.08% deficit in the ballot of approximately 30,000 party members, the combined result being 52.02% for Shorten and 47.98% for Albanese.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,141 comments on “Seat of the week: Maribyrnong”

Comments Page 15 of 23
1 … 14 15 16 … 23

  1. ABC News just described Austro-Hungary as “occupying” Bosnia-Herzegovina.
    Bloody Serbs still push their agenda 100 years later.
    Let me make it clear
    : Bosnien-Herzegowina ist Teil der Österreich-Ungarn und Bosnien-Herzegowina hat alle Tage war Teil der Österreich-Ungarn (or at least since 1878)

  3. Exhibit A

    [ http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/abbott-government-unveils-plan-to-restrict-how-young-people-spend-dole?CMP=soc_567

    “…and moving thousands of people off the disability support pension (DSP), have been flagged in the federal government’s review of the welfare system.”

    29th June, 2014 ]

    Exhibit B

    [ “I want to give people this absolute assurance: no cuts to education, no cuts to health, no change to pensions, no change to GST, no cuts to the ABC or SBS.”

    Tony Abbott, 6th September, 2013

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VN-hbWVXsyE ]

  5. I suspect the devout would be more upset by Smith’s boss calling Mohammed a deity than the old news that his marriage to Aisha was consummated when she was 9 – 10.
    After until the mid 19th century it was considered that intercourse was lawful at any time after menarche. Indeed, As a general rule, until very recently, the female age of consent in the State of the Vatican City was 12.

  7. Andrews will attack the disabled and their entitlements
    ___________________
    The talk that Andrews want to make part of the pensions to unemployed and disabled people take the form of a card which can only be used for certain basic payments,like food and transport,follows the worst US practices,,,the so called”food stamps”
    …In as nation like the USA… which has no Govt pensions of any kind ,the food stamp/credit cards permit the purchaes of SOME foodstuffs from a supermarket or store,for very low income or unemployed people

    So one can buy potatoes, bread sardines,tinned meats,onions, BUT ice-cream.sweets,beer,chicken or any number of LUXURIES which the poor don;t deserve…do they ?
    that’s the US way which Andrews seems to like and wants to follow here
    Why do conservatives want to punish the poor?

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/29/abbott-government-unveils-plan-to-restrict-how-young

  10. OK, that was cold – at one stage I went to walk back under shelter and my feet were so numb I had trouble walking…

    Still, the Seniors game was a thriller, 3-3, with tit for tat goals all through.

    My son was playing striker (not his position) but lucked out.

  13. If Morriscum were to speak in his Pentacostal tongues at his press conferences we would would learn no less than usual.

  15. [The Catholic Church has confirmed that Bishop Max Davis has been charged by West Australian police with a child sex offence.

    The alleged incident is believed to have taken place at St Benedict’s College in New Norcia, north-east of Perth, in 1969.

    The Church says Bishop Davis was not an ordained priest when the incident is alleged to have occurred.

    Bishop Davis is believed to be the first bishop to be charged with a child sex offence in Australia.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-29/catholic-bishop-max-davis-charged-with-sex-offence-dating-back-/5558396

  18. News to me that Archduke Ferdinand had visited Australia

    [He was also the guest of a Mr Badgery in Moss Vale, who introduced the archduke to koalas. Ferdinand managed to shoot at least eight.]

  19. 453 Centre

    It’s not a good way to determine the winner of the game.

    I personally think they should field half teams (5 plays 5 instead of the 10) until a goal is scored.

    Or, they can reduce the teams by a player every few minutes until a goal is scored.

    How about enlarging the goal posts to reduce number of draws and have more goals scored?

    In the 84 years that the World Cup has been played, I think they’ve tried just about anything.

    In the early years they tried replaying a game when it comes to a draw but that would be troublesome in today’s context of network programming and commercials. To add to the problem, the game is played as a tournament in a far away country, how long would it extend if every game come to a draw?

    Enlarging the goal post is not practical in soccer football. Do you change field dimensions too? Why change something that isn’t broke?

    Evenly matched teams that are still drawn after 120 minutes. I don’t think reducing the number of players will increase the likelihood of a deciding goal.

    I’m glad they did away with the golden goal and went to a silver goal where a goal means that is the final half unless someone equalises.

    I like to think that going to penalties is something both teams usually avoid doing because of the more or less random nature of it, though I wouldn’t surprise that a side that has very good goalkeeping and penalty kick taking players will try to take advantage of it.

    Among soccer fans, last night’s game was considered exciting according to my news feed. Like any other game there will be fans who are happy and there will be fans that are disappointed with the results.

  21. I had never heard that story about Franz Ferdinand coming here to amuse himself shooting up our fauna. What a scumbag!

  23. Shellbell…718
    re Archduke Franz Ferdinand’s visit to Australia
    _________________________________
    Yes he came here as a young man on an Austrian warship on a world cruise,years before Sarajevo

    He was manic shooter(ironic really)

    I visited a castle he owned called Konopiste near Prague(his wife was Czech)
    To my astonishment I found all the walls covered with”trophies” of the kill…dozens of deer antlers,endless bear skins and thouands of stuffed animals.. and birds gslore
    He shoot everything that moved,,,funny that

    The castle is now a museum to his life
    He married a minor aristocratic lady,and the Emporer and the Royal Court in Vienna never forgave him as he was expected to marry the daughter of some reigning house

    Oddly is was a love marruiage in a age when royal princes always had mistress(see also Charles,Prince of Wales)…he was a devoted father to his three kids,and his dying words to his wife was”Live Sophie for our children”,,,but she was already dead…and it seems… pregnant too

    In Vienna, THAT famous car is on display in the War Museum

    and my visit on a bitter winter day,snow and hail,saw me alone in the Sarajevo Room where the car ,,,and his bloodstained tunic are on display
    AS I pondered the event the sole attandant went to another room to answer the ringing phone,,,,I took the opportunity to steep over the little railing and place my hands on the bonnet of the car for a moment
    When you see the photos of THAT car remember it may still have my fingerprints on it

    Oddly my wife and I were In Vienna when the old (last)Empress Zita,who fled to S’Land in 1918 when quite young ,and lived to a great age , was buried in Vienna after a lifetime of exile

    It seemed a remarkable thing to see the last Hapsburg Royal funeral so longer after their fall

    We stood in the Square in front of St Stephen’s Cathedral and watched the elaborate coffin carried out and placed in horse drawn hearse for burial in the Royal Crypt…the last such event
    so I have a curious feeling for the Hapsburgs(and there have been worse regimes in Eastern Europe since their times

  24. Fran

    He was as much a scumbag as other European Australians who were killing many thousands of koalas a year for their fur. Not to mention other wildlife.

  25. [ Greensborough Growler
    …

    With the elimination of the “Carbon Tax” there is unlikely to be the same amount of heat around the issue next time around. As I also said the world is moving quickly towards ETS trading schemes. So most of the objections raised historically will simply be no longer operative.
    ]
    As we had a ETS with a fixed price it’s hard to see the argument. The difference next time will be most advanced economies will have an ETS.

  26. One of my favourite cities is Vienna, now a fairly minor capital but when you visit Stependom or the Hapsburg palace you are taken back to a different age.
    I was there when Crown Prince Otto died and the procession included groups from each of the nationalities of the empire in national dress.
    I do not believe that Serbia was not implicated in the assassination of Franz Ferdinand. It was obvious that on accession he would follow the path of trialism and allow the Southern Slavs quasi-independence under a joint kingdom. The empire would become Austro-hungary-jugoslavia. That was a severe challenge to Serbian plans for hegemony.

  27. Swamprat

    [He was as much a scumbag as other European Australians who were killing many thousands of koalas a year for their fur. Not to mention other wildlife.]

    Arguably so.

  28. [chris murphy ‏@chrismurphys 1m
    Bad predators RolfHarris,Justice Yeldham,WoodyAllen, Polanski sail thru careers. Footy’s Todd Carney,silly peeing pic, should lose his?]

  29. An account from an Australian historian of the visit of the Archduke Franz Ferdinand to Sydney in 1893..and his shooting spree while in NSW

    chttp://www.theaustralian.com.au/news/world/archdukes-bush-slaughter/story-e6frg6ux-1226043081850

    and of course all the aristocratic elites did the same thing
    at that time

  30. sorry…try this for the Franz Ferdinand visit to NSW

    chttp://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en-AU&source=hp&q=archduke%27s+franz+ferdinand%27s+visit+to+australia&gbv=2&oq=archduke%27s+franz+ferdinand%27s+visit+to+australia&gs_l=heirloom-hp.12…18061.36871.0.41244.47.42.0.5.2.0.344.7267.13j6j21j2.42.0….0…1ac.1.34.heirloom-hp..12.35.5379.Rq8oVRjpLs0

  32. chttp://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en-AU&source=hp&q=archduke%27s+franz+ferdinand%27s+visit+to+australia&gbv=2&oq=archduke%27s+franz+ferdinand%27s+visit+to+australia&gs_l=heirloom-hp.12…18061.36871.0.41244.47.42.0.5.2.0.344.7267.13j6j21j2.42.0….0…1ac.1.34.heirloom-hp..12.35.5379.Rq8oVRjpLs0

  36. Re: Todd Carney

    Rugby League like all professional sport is a nasty industry.

    It bears no relationship to the games that it exploits.

    Its only concern is the response of their sponsors (cash) which they euphemistically call putting the game into disrepute.

  37. It’s unrealistic to expect decorum or insight from people paid large sums of money to play competitive sports. One may get it, but that is mere coincidence. The money makes it less probable.

  39. I am surprised the LNPers haven’t yet proposed that all “welfare” recipients (apart of course millionaires, miners and farmers) be made to wear identifying clothing to make the hard work of the Murdoch press easier.

  41. Retweeted by Greens
    Christine Milne ‏@senatormilne 30m

    IPA retains tax deductible status but enviro NGOs to lose theirs. Murdoch and Rinehart win again.@TonyAbbottMHR governs for big end of town.

  44. swamprat
    Posted Sunday, June 29, 2014 at 9:39 pm | Permalink

    I am surprised the LNPers haven’t yet proposed that all “welfare” recipients (apart of course millionaires, miners and farmers) be made to wear identifying clothing to make the hard work of the Murdoch press easier.

    Recall before the election, or around that time, Morrison (I think) was proposing that refugees be micro-chipped.

    You know like people do with their dog

  45. Yes, Fran would put it more eloquently, but I am sickened by this attack on the most vulnerable in the country, coordinated with insulting headlines on the front pages of the Murdoch crapsheets.

    [begin rant]
    Meanwhile the Liberal mates are jostling to get their mouths on the public teat – ‘private’ schools, ‘private’ health funds and soon ‘private’ collages, not to mention privatisations, PPPs and fat government contracts. As far as ‘free’ enterprise goes, Lord make me pure, but not yet’ is their motto.

    A retiree with $3 million super pays no tax on their $150k a year allocated pension. Multinationals shift their profits offshore to avoid paying tax in the country that provides a safe and supportive environment to conduct their business and educated tgeir workers and managers. The wealthy hide their wealth and income in tax and corporate structures to avoid tax. Rentseekers abound. Look at the shenanigens revealed by tge NSW ICAC.

    It’s class warfare. And the fat, greedy, lazy slugs and their political sock puppets are winning.

    [end rant]

  46. AA

    Microchips ….. It is a good example of how far the LNP has abandoned any sense of respectable conservatism to an undemocratic right wing position.

    Once such a suggestion would have been considered extremist in Australia.

    Now it is open for discussion.

  48. Oh dear – yes, we’ve got to watch out for the private collages, altough they’re not a problem – yet. On the other hand, private colleges will up their fees to absorb as much of the Government largesse that the market will allow and lobby for more support if profits go down in the next economic downturn. Rent seekers all.

  50. William

    I note that Bludgertrack is showing a gain of seven seats by Labor in Victoria if an election were held now. Realistically do you think that is feasible?

Comments Page 15 of 23
1 … 14 15 16 … 23

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *