Seat of the week: Maranoa

Covering Queensland’s south-western interior, Maranoa has been in National/Country Party hands without interruption for over 70 years, current member Bruce Scott having assumed the seat in 1990.

Teal numbers indicate size of two-party majority for the Liberal National Party. Click for larger image. Map boundaries courtesy of Ben Raue at The Tally Room.

Created at federation and fairly constant in its boundaries ever since, Maranoa covers a vast expanse of south-western Queensland accounting for about 40% of the state’s surface area. Most of its voters are concentrated at the inner end of the state’s populous south-eastern corner, including the centres of Kingaroy, Dalby and Warwick to the north, west and south of Toowoomba (which has formed the basis of Groom since 1984, and Darling Downs beforehand). Centres further inland include Roma and Charleville on the Warrego Highway, and Barcaldine and Longreach on the Landsborough Highway further north. The seat’s Liberal National Party margin after the 2013 election is 22.4%, making it the third safest Coalition seat in the country after Parkes in New South Wales and Mallee in Victoria.

Reflecting a familiar pattern in rural Queensland, Maranoa started life as a Labor stronghold and progressively moved to the other extreme with the decline of the shearing and railway workforce. The first changeover occurred in 1921 upon the death of the seat’s inaugural Labor member, Jim Page, initiating a by-election won for the Country Party by James Hunter. The seat returned to the Labor fold when Hunter retired in 1940, but Labor’s Francis Baker was unseated after a single term, emerging the only Labor member to lose his seat amid the party’s national landslide in 1943. It was then held for the Country Party by Charles Adermann until he moved to the new seat of Fisher with the expansion of parliament in 1949, which he would eventually bequeath to his son Evan in 1972.

Adermann’s successor at the 1949 election was Charles Russell, who quit the Country Party less than a year after his election and unsuccessfully contested the seat as an independent in both 1951 and 1954, falling 1.1% short on the latter occasion in the absence of a Labor candidate. That would mark the last occasion when the Country Party’s grip on the seat was seriously troubled, a 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushing the margin into double digits where it has remained ever since. The National/Country members through this period were Wilfred Brindlecombe until 1966, James Corbett until 1980, and Ian Cameron until 1990. There were suggestions ahead of the 1998 election that a threat might loom from One Nation, but in the event they could only manage third place behind Labor on 22.4%. A 9.7% swing at the 1966 election pushed the margin well into double digits, where it has remained ever since.

The seat’s present long-serving incumbent is Bruce Scott, who served in the junior ministry as Veterans Affairs Minister for the first two terms of the Howard government, losing the position when the Nationals’ weak electorate performance in 2001 reduced its share of the spoils. In October 2012 he became Deputy Speaker, filling the vacancy created by Anna Burke’s rise to the Speakership following Peter Slipper’s resignation, and has retained the position in government. Barnaby Joyce had hoped to facilitate his move from the Senate to the House by replacing Scott in Maranoa at the last election, but Scott was determined to serve another term and Joyce dismissed the notion of challenging him for preselection, saying it would be “self-indulgent personality politics”. He instead opted to cross the state boundary and contest the northern New South Wales seat of New England.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,772 comments on “Seat of the week: Maranoa”

Comments Page 47 of 56
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  2. I don’t understand the connection between a cheque being written and cash being handed over at the same time. Why would anyone do that in front of a builder? What would be the urgency?

  3. Sir mad cyril

    The irony is that jeff still believes to this day that he was a legend in his own lunchtime. From my perspective, he now does a good impression of a demon. Poor bloke hasnt aged gracefully at all
    🙂

  4. The cash would have to be deposited and the cheque would have to be deposited too. Why hand it over immediately on the spot?

  5. Bb

    You would think if fhere was something shifty going on, there would be more discretion.

    This whole thing is a farce so far. How embarrassing

  9. It’s starting to look like the Victorian Police are in this up to their necks.

    Preparing witness statements, all nice and neat, ready to be signed, is not a good look.

  11. ‘CAN’T FIGHT, RUN OR HIDE’: It’s our trillion-dollar turkey

    AUSTRALIA has committed its biggest defence outlay ever on an unfinished combat jet critics insist can’t fight, can’t run and can’t hide. Is the F-35 a flop?

    Angst has been boiling about the F-35 Lightning II (otherwise known as the Joint Strike Fighter) since its inception. Now, five years overdue and six years away from its revised delivery date, that angst has exploded into furore.

    http://www.news.com.au/technology/the-1-trillion-f35-tries-to-be-all-things-but-succeeds-at-few-say-critics-but-is-australias-new-weapon-now-too-big-to-fail/story-e6frfrnr-1226950254330

  13. Builder joins the ranks of those who claim “It was 20 years ago”.

    Tells the Commission the work was done in early May, Wilson was present, but Wilson was out of the country in early May.

  14. [ Tony Abbott, Australia’s prime minister, called for limited action on climate change that would not ‘clobber the economy’.
    He is seeking to form a conservative alliance that aims to undermine what he calls a ‘left-liberal’ push by US President Barack Obama to ramp up green taxes. ]

    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2654115/Australian-PM-Tony-Abbott-invited-UK-join-alliance-like-minded-nations-limit-action-climate-change.html#ixzz34IJtSQso

    Ok, so Mr People Skills Abbott goes public with this concept days before meeting President Obama?? This has got to be a WTF moment in Australian diplomatic history. 🙁

  15. Mr James, the builder, seems certain that Ms Gillard told him that Mr Wilson would pay for the job.

    Now, the one thing that can’t be established is whether Ms Gillard knew where the money she got from Mr Wilson actually came from.

  16. imacca

    [Ok, so Mr People Skills Abbott goes public with this concept days before meeting President Obama?? This has got to be a WTF moment in Australian diplomatic history.]

    Aren’t we lucky to have such a smart Leader?

    If he talks like he does in Parliament they may just nod their heads and be glad that he has gone.

  17. I think, if this is true that Abbott is bragging about forming an anti-climate alliance, he is about to get a large come-uppance from Obama.

    Abbott has a history of big talk, followed by small, or no action.

    Obama would probably be sharpening knives right now. At least I hope he is.

    “So this is the pissant from Australia? Welcome to hell, Mr. Abbott. Come inside!”

  18. Re the VicPol.

    I’ve suspected there’s a rotten element that has associated within a network of underworld crooks, politicians from both sides and the big end of town for quite a number of years.

  20. victoria@2282

    Sounding more and more like a kangaroo Court

    One thing that I didn’t hear etc from the live link earlier this morning which was mentioned by ABC TV News at Noon in Sydney –

    Hem apparently said when Wilson came home looking worse for wear etc he also said they had been at the casino {all night being the inference} – then Wilson pulls the money out of his jacket pocker and asks it be deposited into a bank account in Gillard’s name etc.

    Is Wilson going to say the casino is where the money came from?

    Long way to go on this and Wilson’s testimony will be a *must see*.

  21. One can only imagine the agenda being worked through at todays meeting between Ms Credlin and Mr Murdoch.
    Oh for a copy of the minutes…

  22. Retweeted by Rob Oakeshott
    Trevor Riches ‏@Trev_t4e 3h

    @RobOakeshott1 @mrl58 As I understand it, the Direct Action proposals have not been subjected to climate impact modelling. Blind faith.

  25. In Senate estimates SHY is getting plenty of things on the record that Manus is not a safe place to send asylum seekers.

    Its going to be harder for the High Court to rule Manus as a legal destination.

  26. FFS

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2654115/Australian-PM-Tony-Abbott-invited-UK-join-alliance-like-minded-nations-limit-action-climate-change.html#ixzz34HTcEkgf

    as much as I find this depressing and embarrassing, I am also reassured that abbott’s pissant effort is worth nowt if the US, China, the EU and the industrialising asian and south american nations continue to more towards strong international targets. why do I have the mental image of him out on a limb weighed down by Gina, Twiggy, Rupert and tonnes of coal and iron ore madly sawing away at the bough over an abyss? May he take his neo-con loons into that abyss (In the image he is also weighed down by heavy busts of Friedman, Hayek, Rand and Thatcher (although, to be fair it was maggie’s economists who very actively promoted pollution pricing and market mechanisms to deal with environmental issues) and a heavy anchor labelled ‘ideological budget’).

    I think/hope his huffing and puffing in Canadia is his last hoorah on this stuff. If turnbull was not so spineless he’d speak up. If Hunt was not slime, so would he. They are now part of an international action to stop effective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Turnbull needs to be reminded of this at every opportunity. Pity shorten shares abbott’s desire to dig up all of australia’s coal and gas. if labor has brains they’d start the discussion of what a low emissions economy will look like(& the risks of trying to be a high emissions economy in a low emissions global economy), and how we can make the transition from coal.

  27. [CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    Bw – 24 had yet another Middle East ‘expert’.

    When asked if more foreign aid would help the Iraqi Government he answered that it was the rebels/insurgents who were the main beneficiaries of foreign aid as the Iraqi Army drop their guns, leave their equipment and run for it.

    The only ‘expert’ on the area I take any notice of is the ANU’s Amin Saikal but it seems the ABC gone off him. Probably because he sometimes says that he has no idea what has provoked a particular event. Being honest doesn’t seem to suit interviewers!]

    He was very good.

    Looks like the Kurds everywhere between Kirkuk and the Iranian, Turkish and Syrian borders have lots of options to mull over. They might:

    (a) Stay out of it while Sunni and Shia arabs kill each other as proxies variously for Turkey, Iran and Saudi Arabia. A side-benefit is that most of the Mosul runners right now would be Shia arabs and it was Shia arabs that Hussein traslocated into Mosul by way of transmigrasi.

    (b) Join on the side of the Sunni arabs on the basis that it is better to back the weak side and keep them in the game for as long as possible.

    (c) Join the Bagdad Shia side on the basis that you might as well get with the strength.

    (d) Go with whoever is paying the most, ATM.

    (e) Ask the US what it might like done in the circumstances, in return for some advanced weaponry.

    (f) Given a wonderful opportunity to move forward the cause of Kurdistan, start fighting amongst each other while everyone else is distracted.

    BTW, p9 in today’s ‘The Australian’, there is a photo of a Soryu. Have a look at all the tiles they have glued onto it.

  30. [ Obama would probably be sharpening knives right now. At least I hope he is.

    “So this is the pissant from Australia? Welcome to hell, Mr. Abbott. Come inside!” ]

    Obama would be entirely justified in doing so and arranging a public humiliation for Abbott. Abbott is effectively attacking Obama’s stance on a major policy issue in a very public way. Now this is in the wild the media is absolutely sure to ask questions and draw it out. They have the potential for the theater of open policy conflict, on a fairly heated and polarizing issue, between the President of the US and his guest, AND that guest is going to have to explain WTF he is doing trying to publicly drive a wedge between old allies like the UK and the US, and Obama is going to get questions on how he feels about that.

    It will go down well with the Teabaggers in the US and the NutterTruckers here, but that’s about it. Its pretty much Abbott saying FU Obama, you wont be President for much longer so i can forget about you and suck up to the Repugs.

    Which could be a VERY big mistake if Hilary runs and wins the next election. 🙂

  32. guytaur

    What steps has Minister Morrison taken to ensure a safe and peaceful Manus facility ?

    He has spectacularly failed thus far…

  33. [ Sir Mad Cyril

    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 12:28 pm | Permalink

    vic

    Well, we did kick him out after two terms, much to his shock. I think the memory of his slash and burn antics lingers to this day. Bloody Jeff!
    ]

    ————————————————–

    Its not just the memory, Cyril – its the *consequences* of what he did . The lives he ruined in the Latrobe Valley and his privatisation of the SEC ultimately has lead to a ‘neglect’ of its responsiblities and the recent fires in the open cut are a consequence …..

  35. Rex

    Yep Morrison is a big failure. Not that the MSM tells this truth instead preferring to parrot the line of how successful Morrison has been

  36. Oh – Another thing from ABC TV News at Noon in Sydney –

    Showed abbott going to met murdoch in the US – with the ABC Reporter saying Murdoch is arguably the *most powerful man in the world*.

    FFS – murdoch may think he is.

    I prefer Fairfax’s Greg Hywood’s comment yesterday –

    *How could we forget this is the group whose legacy to journalism is phone hacking*

  37. From what I can see there are, indeed four factions in the modern Liberal Party: the Hard Right, Mad Right, the Barking Mad Right and the Looney Right. Then, of course, there is Shallow Mal, running around knocking on their doors, asking to be let in.

  40. @2290

    He’s the one man who refuse to just disappear or retire. Where other former premieres go on to become Ambassadors or appear at NPC and the lot, this one just keep appearing on breakfast shows, giving commentary to just about anything.

  41. [Bushfire Bill
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 12:30 pm | PERMALINK
    I don’t understand the connection between a cheque being written and cash being handed over at the same time. Why would anyone do that in front of a builder? What would be the urgency?]

    What a load of hogwash.

    As if a builder wouldn’t accept a cash payment.

    Purer than the driven snow. Yeah. Right.

    I’ve never met a builder yet who wouldn’t accept cash in hand. Evah. City or rural.

    Rabbit-caught-in-the-headlights when questioned about whether he’d ever received a cash payment for work done. “Only if it was to come off the bill,” ya’honner. BS. Writ large.

    Why doesn’t it make sense? Because it doesn’t make sense.

    Memo to self: Never, ever, ever, ever divulge personal circumstances in front of a tradie. They have memories like elephants.

    Justice Heydon isn’t giving me much confidence in the impartiality stakes, btw.

  42. [ MTBW

    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 12:54 pm | Permalink

    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott-fulfils-wish-to-dine-with-rupert-murdoch-in-new-york-20140611-39wsh.html

    Peta was there as well!
    ]

    ———————————————–

    Chain Of Command – POOPert tells Peta – who then tells Tony, no doubt repeatedly, what has to be done to keep the old boy on side.

    Saves Tony going “eh?” all the time in front of the old boy

  43. Victoria

    I wonder if vic pol wrote Wilson’s statement? Seem to have done it for a few others!
    Who is kernahan (spelling) who is up after lunch.

  44. I hope Obama manages to humiliate Abbott on climate change in such a way that Abbott doesn’t immediately grasp that it is happening.

  45. [ CTar1
    Posted Wednesday, June 11, 2014 at 10:50 am | Permalink

    Bw – 24 had yet another Middle East ‘expert’.

    When asked if more foreign aid would help the Iraqi Government he answered that it was the rebels/insurgents who were the main beneficiaries of foreign aid as the Iraqi Army drop their guns, leave their equipment and run for it.]

    Yep – like this –

    [ Al Qaeda Militants Capture US Black Hawk Helicopters In Iraq

    …But the worst news by far for the US is that as a result of the takeover of Mosul by ISIS forces, an unknown number, and at least one, US ultramodern Blackhawk and Kiowa helicopters parked at the Mosul airport, are now in, you guessed it, Al Qaeda hands. ]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-06-10/al-qaeda-militants-capture-us-blackhawk-helicopters-iraq

  46. I cannot understand why the ALP aren’t hammering home 2 major points.

    a) They should be proud of the fact that, despite signifacant opposition by the Conservative/Green cartel, their establishment of a policy of deterrent has contributed the most in slowing the number of treacherous boat journies that resulted in mass drownings.

    b) The gross mismanagement of the Manus facility by this Govt that has seen it degenerate into a violent, death camp.

  47. [Its pretty much Abbott saying FU Obama, you wont be President for much longer so i can forget about you and suck up to the Repugs.]

    Please note that Obama will be President until January 2017 following the Prez election of Nov. 2016, slightly after when our next Federal election is likely to transpire.

  50. rossmcg

    kernohan was former Union head of AWU. Apparently spoke at Shorten’s 21st. Not sure if they remained on good terms. What i have heard so far, is that there is not much love for Shorten by this individual.

    Talk later……

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