The Sunday Mail carries a ReachTEL automated phone poll of state voting intention, conducted two days after Tuesday’s budget from a sample of 1800, which finds primary vote support for Campbell Newman’s Liberal National Party government at 40.9%, with Labor on 34.0%, the Palmer United Party on 13.6% and the Greens on 5.2%. No two-party preferred result is provided, and the emergence of Palmer United has made determining one rather tricky, but it comes out as 53.6-46.4 on a formula that has half the minor party vote exhausting and the rest allocated as per preferences at last year’s federal election. The poll also finds strong opposition to proposed asset sales, with 24% rating the budget as good or very good and “about the same number” rating it average, while “more than 46%” thought the budget poor or very poor.
UPDATE: Docantk relates in comments: “Channel Seven news has ReachTEL Newman performance ratings: Very poor 30%, poor 19%, satisfactory 20%, good 15% and very good 15%. Palaszczuk performance: Very poor 18%, poor 20%, satisfactory 30%, good 15%, very good 11%, don’t know 6%.”
UPDATE 2: Full results from ReachTEL.
Since NSW and Qld have in effect reverted (or regressed) to first-past-the-post voting, the whole concept of the two-party vote becomes rather meaningless.
True, though its its interesting to the ALP nominally getting roughly half of PUP prefs.
The South Australia ALP 2PP is looking a bit optimistic.
There was a special morgan leadership poll you may have missed William.
“Prime Minister Tony Abbott (38%, down 2% since October 18-20, 2013) trails Opposition Leader Bill Shorten (43%, up 7%) as the ‘Better PM’ for the first time according to a special telephone Morgan Poll conducted over the last three nights (June 3-5, 2014).”
I would be wary of assuming things about how Palmer voters will choose to preference or exhaust their votes, personally.
I think Labor is going to get more than 50% of Palmer’s non-exhausted preferences and that less than half of Palmer voters will exhaust, given the nature of events that have led to the spike in support for Palmer (being chiefly anti-LNP).
bug1, what South Australian 2PP do you refer to?
If the Lib vote is collapsing, it’s because one former Lib leader, Martin Hamilton-Smith, has joined the Labor Cabinet, and another, Iain Evans, has announced he’ll be quitting parliament within the year.
Oh, and third, Isobel Redmond has just had to apologise to parliament for saying the state electoral commissioner, Kay Mousley, “is utterly corrupt”.
Toorak Toff, i was referring to the state breakdown of the federal poll aggregate on the right column, it has SA at 58.9% to ALP.
(apologies for getting off topic so fast)
Not sure if a 2pp in entirely meaningless under optional preferential voting (OPV).
I would have guessed, in this case OPV and the significant rise in PUP is likely to hurt the LNP.
Assuming the majority of PUP voters would be leaking from the LNP – then OPV would prevent some of them finding there way back via preferences.
My State Labor MP lost his seat in 2012 due to OPV.
The Greens vote exhausted and defeated Labor.
There are too many variables to accurately predict the outcome of the next election.
what does it mean for a vote to “exhaust”?
Possum apparently will be posting something on Queensland very soon. Stay tuned
bug1, this is a QLD political thread. William usually has state politics or issue-specific threads stay on those topics, whereas the current political thread, usually a recent poll or a “seat of the week”, is for more general political discussion and certainly for the breakdown of bludgertrack. I believe “Seat of the Week: Maranoa” is the current thread for federal and general discussions.
As for this topic, I can see a decent campaign putting Labor in a good position for the following election. While I know oppositions should always aim for the win, but it’s a bit unfeasible when you’ve only got 8/89 seats in parliament (9, if Stafford goes Labor.)
I do think Ashgrove will be an interesting battleground though and I wouldn’t be surprised if Newman relocates to a safe seat for the next election.
Graham, Queensland (like NSW) has optional preferential voting, which means you don’t have to number every box. This means that whereas under the federal system every minor party vote ends up with one major party or the other sooner or later, about half of those in a Queensland state election leave the major parties outnumbered and therefore drop out of the count.
graham
In Queensland state elections, you do not have to complete your ballot for it to be formal. So if all of the candidates you have numbered are excluded in the count, your vote “exhausts” and has no further effect on who wins.
For example, if there are 4 candidates (LNP, Lab, PUP and GRN) and you vote 1 PUP, 2 GRN, and do not number any further candidates, if both PUP and GRN candidates are excluded, your vote cannot be used to determine who wins out of the remaining candidates.
Channel 7 news has reachtel Newman performance ratings: Very poor 30%, poor 19%, satisfactory 20%, good 15% and very good 15%
Palaszczuk performance: Very poor 18%, poor 20%, satisfactory 30%, good 15%, very good 11%, don’t know 6%
“Since NSW and Qld have in effect reverted (or regressed) to first-past-the-post voting, the whole concept of the two-party vote becomes rather meaningless.”
Somewhat true on a statewide extrapolation. But that’s also a factor of Qld having 3+ party politics at regional level. OPV will be anything but FPP in those seats where Palmer, Katter or Independents run second but are elected on staunch Laborites dutifully following their how to vote card. The consideration, more than the argy bargy at the last by-election, is exercising Bleijie as he considers banning canvassing around polling booths…
Full ReachTEL results
https://www.reachtel.com.au/blog/7news-sunday-mail-queensland-the-state-were-in-2014-costofliving
[8 June 2014
7 News / Sunday Mail Queensland – The state we’re in – Cost of Living
ReachTEL conducted a survey of 1,820 Queensland residents on the night of 5th June 2013.]
Note, for a baseline comparison, there are no official 2012 election TPP results, but see these estimates.
http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2012/05/post-election-pendulum-for-2012-queensland-election.html
[May 18, 2012
Post-election Pendulum for 2012 Queensland Election.
The results of the 2012 Queensland Election held on 24 March are now final and it is time to summarise the overall result and provide the new and rather lop-sided electoral pendulum.
…………..
In 2009 Malcolm Mackerras produced an estimated statewide Labor 2PP of 50.9% using the approach of distributing Cunningham’s preferences and viewing Gladstone as a Labor seat. I adopted the approach of another Queensland political observer, David Fraser, in treating Cunningham’s two-candidate vote as the non-Labor two-party vote, which gave a Labor state-wide vote of 50.6%.
On the 2012 results, using the Mackerras method and distributing Cunningham’s votes as preferences, the state-wide LNP two-party preferred is 62.8%. If you use the approach of treating Cunningham as the non-Labor total, the state-wide LNP two-party preferred is 63.1%. Either way, both methods produce a state-wide two-party preferred swing of 13.7%, with the 0.3% difference between the two state-wide vote estimates created entirely by which method you prefer in dealing with Gladstone.]
Note Galaxy use the first Mackerras method on 2012 as a baseline.
http://www.galaxyresearch.com.au/21-22-2014/
The next Qld election will be fought on the need to sell off assets, if you look at the ReachTel results for support of asset sales, the ALP, PUP, Greens and others all overwhelmingly oppose the measures.
This may give an insight into preference flows. ~75% against the LNP.
Seems a little odd to have more respondents against the budget than in favour of it, and more respondents against assets sales than in favour of them, yet the Libs still relatively comfortably in front on TPP.
So 30% of Queenslanders think Newman is good or very good. Wow that is a lot of people with sunstroke or really really low standards & iq
If, as these polls are indicating, Newman’s Government does lose a swag of city and coastal seats at the next election, will that destabilise the Government as the losses fall disproportionately on the “Liberal” members, leaving the ex-Nationals in a much stronger position in the party room?
William,or anyone. Has Newman formally set the date for the Stafford by election yet?
Campbell Newman seems determined to overtake NSW Labor as Australia’s most corrupt government. This story adds to his already impressive CV.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2014-06-23/karreman-quarries-escapes-prosecution-for-illegal-quarrying/5543896
The illegally extracted gravel would be worth at least $5 million per year. That does not count the additional costs to the state of the downstream sedimentation. Newman has the cheek to complain about a budget problem.