Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll since the budget finds effectively no change from the first on voting intention, although personal ratings for both leaders have moderated after big shifts last time.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.

Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.

In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.

As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.

Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,759 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

Comments Page 33 of 36
1 … 32 33 34 … 36

  1. [ Simkins story on decision to re-introduce fuel excise indexation inaccurate. No one actually involved in process could possibly say that. ]

    The problem the Libs have (apart from somebody in the Libs putting this out there, true or not) is that Simkins story is considerably more plausible than some of the bullsh$t that they have been saying in public about Economy and the Budget. 🙂

    Fwark, Abbott is toast. Just remains to see how burnt and crispy he gets before getting popped out and discarded.

  3. [ Turnbull had been invisible in regards to selling the budget. ]

    So how does that square with being *forced*

    I just don’t know why people want to make excuses for turnbull or give him an out – he was up to his armpits in trying to bring Labor down over utegate etc.

    He is just another flavour of bad.

  6. Greg Hunt must surely believe his ‘Direct Action’ plan is rubbish. A non-plan that will have no impact in addressing a problem that he may still believe is an issue but most of his colleagues don’t.

    Presumably he regards his life’s work as rolling back environmental protections to make things easier for miners, fossil fuel interests, fishing and developers.

  8. One aspect of the budget which seems not to have attracted any attention is the new “Commonwealth Scholarship” initiative. According to the budget papers, “Institutions will be required to spend $1 of every $5 of additional revenue on these scholarships.” That means, of course, that institutions will have to raise fees 20% more than they would otherwise have done, to cover the cost. So, despite the name, these will not really be “Commonwealth” scholarships; the Commonwealth will not contribute anything to them. They should be called “Other Poor Students Scholarships”, since that is who will really be paying for them.

    This is a similar pattern to the Medical Research Fund. The Abbott Government will claim credit for a worthy initiative when in reality the funding will be extracted by force from a disadvantaged section of the community. The sick will pay for the medical fund, and the sicker you are the more you will have to contribute. In the case of the scholarship fund, poor students will be forced to borrow money to pay for other students who are just a little poorer. An argument can be made (though I do not agree with it) that education is a private benefit to the student so the student should be prepared to make a substantial contribution to it, but I cannot see any reasonable case that could be made in favour of scholarships for the disadvantaged being wholly paid for by their fellow students. One can see that there will be people who never get a big income from their degree, but spend years paying for the degrees of others who do go on to be very successful.

  9. 1606 Steve777

    This Obama’s “Direct Action” seems to be the same only in name.

    It looks like a mechanism that allows the States to do their own form of pollution capping. In China, it looks like the regions and cities do their own pollution control.

    I wonder, is there anything that prevents our states and territories, from setting their own?

  13. Back in the early days of Rudd being elected Leader of the Labor Party and during the Godwin Gretch Affair, one of the few sometimes the only Liberal supporter was a poster named Glen.

    When defending his beliefs he would put a good case and he had a sense of humour when the Libs stuffed it.

    Does anybody know what happened to Glen.

    Or was he like me and didn’t bother to lurk or post while the Rudd/Gillard Green/Labor bickering was going on.

    Does anybody know what happened to Glen.

    Or was he like me and didn’t bother to lurk or post while the Rudd/Gillard Green/labor bickering was going on

  14. I’d be the last one to defend Turnbull, I’m just calling it how moi sees it, that he was pressured to get out there and sell the budget as a show of support for the Rabbott.

  16. Retweeted by Greens
    Rachel Siewert ‏@SenatorSiewert 4m

    Dept Social Services can’t tell me what impact decreasing indexation rate will have income for aged pensioners – they r checking #estimates

    WTF Abbott?

  18. Retweeted by Winker Tiny Abbitt
    Craig Thomler ‏@craigthomler 10m

    Five countries that don’t have a Science Minister: Saudi Arabia, Vatican City, Mexico, North Korea & Australia. #auspol

    Kim Carr ‏@SenKimCarr 2h

    This is a government that has no science minister, no science policy, no technology policy, and no jobs policy http://fb.me/2UHWHbHky

  19. [Does anybody know what happened to Glen.]

    Glen moved to Canberra and shit got busy for him.

    But he was a pretty cool guy who had a seriously retro love of Churchill for someone his age, but rocked it nonetheless. He also had a weird belief that Bruce Bilson would be a great Liberal leader, but despite mocking him for it, none of us held that particular obsession against him.

    Do not diss Glen.

  20. confessions@1619

    Does anybody know what happened to Glen.


    Glen moved to Canberra and shit got busy for him.

    But he was a pretty cool guy who had a seriously retro love of Churchill for someone his age, but rocked it nonetheless. He also had a weird belief that Bruce Bilson would be a great Liberal leader, but despite mocking him for it, none of us held that particular obsession against him.

    Do not diss Glen.

    He reappeared for a while as Gary Sparrow.

  21. frednk

    [This is a government that has no science minister, no science policy, no technology policy,]
    As a journo once sais about Tony’s first political mentor , one B.A. Santamaria , his ideal world was an Agrarian feudal theocracy.

  22. MikeH

    Malcolm F arr was also on Sky yesterday. Speers, as usual, was trying to whitewash the DA plan as being the same as Obama’s. Farr said, very firmly, that they are not similar.

  24. One thing that we could do is find out those who think this budget is is good for the Australian people and sell them the bridge that spans Sydney Harbour, then donate the money raised to the Labor Party.

  25. [ I’m just calling it ………..that he was pressured to get out there and sell the budget as a show of support for the Rabbott. ]

    I doubt that muchly. He is a very senior cabinet minister and if he doesn’t want to support what the government does he has far more options then most people.

    Bur there is nothing to suggest he doesn’t support the budget.

    We do know he full bloodedly supports wrecking the NBN and has appointed a senior Newscorp bod as NBN CFO in the last day or two.

    All very cozy like.

  26. This is a seriously good decision and comes on the very day news broke that WA Liberals are mounting a campaign to have Sunday penalty rates reduced.
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/a/24128066/widening-gap-for-australias-low-earners/

    Their logic is that Sunday trading harks back to a forgotten period and people don’t live like this anymore. Which is laughable given they are WA based and so would know that this state still has arcane retail trading laws.

    When shops are permitted to be open on days of their choosing, then they can pitch a fit about wage structures being out of touch with how people live.

  27. [As a journo once sais about Tony’s first political mentor , one B.A. Santamaria , his ideal world was an Agrarian feudal theocracy.]

    Indeed. And a world where women take a back seat.

    And on that note I was pleased to see Palmer offer an apology of sorts to Credlin for his boneheaded stupidity.

  28. The great thing about the budget reception has been watching the LNP slowly confront how far right of the mainstream they are.

    Most of their sacred cows are electoral poison.

  31. Back in 07 I thought Glen was a YL hivemind. He was referred to as ‘The Glens’, because morning Glen was quite pleasant and reasonable, but late afternoon and evening Glen was often snarky and bad tempered. A shift change, I guessed. But I stand corrected, and glad to hear it.

    While we’re reminiscing, I looked at the list of people who paid for the Bolt Supporters ad, which was linked to yesterday. Lots of familiar names, including Robert Candelori, who was also a fierce regular and now seems to have moved on.

  33. Crispy@1631

    Back in 07 I thought Glen was a YL hivemind. He was referred to as ‘The Glens’, because morning Glen was quite pleasant and reasonable, but late afternoon and evening Glen was often snarky and bad tempered. A shift change, I guessed. But I stand corrected, and glad to hear it.

    While we’re reminiscing, I looked at the list of people who paid for the Bolt Supporters ad, which was linked to yesterday. Lots of familiar names, including Robert Candelori, who was also a fierce regular and now seems to have moved on.

    Candles escaped from dish washing at the chunder factory and popped in a few weeks ago. Didn’t last long.

  34. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 2m

    In any other state, Bleijie would be sacked. He not only made these laws, but made multiple amendments to attack us! http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/queensland/que

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    Now he’s forced to backflip because his childish fantasies ran into the very constitutional issues he was warned multiple time over

  35. [ Crispy
    Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 8:55 pm | PERMALINK

    Back in 07 I thought Glen was a YL hivemind. He was referred to as ‘The Glens’, because morning Glen was quite pleasant and reasonable, but late afternoon and evening Glen was often snarky and bad tempered. A shift change, I guessed. But I stand corrected, ]

    I think your intial comment was closer to the mark and didn’t need correction at all.

  36. poroti

    “As a journo once sais about Tony’s first political mentor , one B.A. Santamaria , his ideal world was an Agrarian feudal theocracy.”

    Probably a fair comment. I would be very interested to know Abbott’s views on the Spanish Civil War because of this.

  39. And file this one under ‘bullshit narratives’ as Hockey continues to struggle to frame his budget in any coherent fashion whatsoever.

    [The treasurer says the latest national accounts show the resilience of the economy, with growth at its strongest in about two years.]
    https://au.news.yahoo.com/thewest/national/a/24132304/economy-has-solid-growth-foundation-hockey/

    Yeah babe, that’s after you spent the best part of your first months in govt pitching a fit about budget emergencies and how we all had to suck up the pain.

    He is a dud as Treasurer. Come back Swannee, even the most strident of the Ruddists has forgiven you!

  40. Hahahaha… the abc just aired it’s apology to Chris Kenny.

    Kenny was on 774 this afternoon raving about the indignity he suffered and why he deserved an apology.

    I phoned in and when the producer answered the phone I chuckled a bit and said I was just trying to pluck up the courage to ask on air when the dog would get an apology. This was greeted with a prolonged silence and WTTE “I don’t think we could put that to air…” 👿

  44. Interesting. Just watched Simkins story again on ABC. He says that “different ministers have different recollections over who played who”.

    So is he outright saying that the “senior liberals” who have put this out there are cabinet ministers??

    Interesting also that this is REALLY damaging for the Nats. Essentially they took the position that ALL their country constituents should pay higher fuel prices, rather than a few large miners and large agribusiness’s (using over $100k of diesel) losing a subsidy.

  46. BK@1643

    Nice work bemused. Pity you bottled it!

    I don’t think they were taking calls on that and it was clear that one would not have made it to air. 😀

  47. [ Interesting also that this is REALLY damaging for the Nats.

    Essentially they took the position that ALL their country constituents should pay higher fuel prices, rather than a few large miners and large agribusiness’s (using over $100k of diesel) losing a subsidy. ]

    There is already a response somewhere from Truss – brushing it all away – apparently none of it ever happened.

    Won’t even stand up and be countered.

Comments Page 33 of 36
1 … 32 33 34 … 36

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *