Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.
Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.
In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.
As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.
UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.
Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.
Arrogance.
Seriously… what the f**k is wrong with these people?!
Who is talking to the ABC? Truss should read the riot act. But of course he is a member of the Qld Division of the Liberal Party.
I wonder if the NSW or Vic Nats would like the leadership back?
lizzie
[Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 6:50 pm | PERMALINK
victoria
When I watched (as much as I could bear of) QT today, my overwhelming reaction was that the Libs are suffering from ideological triumphalism and are blind to the feelings of others.]
QT has become unwatchable.
Ru
This mob are leaking like sieves
[Australia’s wealthiest people use a complex web of trusts and companies to hide what could potentially be billions of dollars from the tax office.
Auditor general Ian McPhee has released a report on the Australian Taxation Office’s handling of high-wealth individuals (HWIs) – people who control an estimated net wealth of $30m or more each.
McPhee said the tax compliance of the 2,650 HWIs and 3,700 potential HWIs, who had a total estimated wealth of $500bn in 2012/13, represented a “significant revenue risk”.]
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/jun/04/australias-richest-could-be-hiding-billions-from-tax-office
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/ng-interactive/2014/mar/great-barrier-reef-obituary
In a few months the Liberals will realise they are 33% into their term and are still blaming everyone else, when people say but you have had a year to change things, they will realise they spent a the time being the opposition after winning an election.
rua
The influence of a leader who would rather tear down than build. Amazing how easily they are all persuaded to follow his lead in vindictiveness.
Turnbull insists Abbott has Liberal party’s full support
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-insists-tony-abbott-has-liberal-partys-full-support-20140604-39j73.html
lol
Typical:
Mathias Cormann @MathiasCormann 37s
Simkins story on decision to re-introduce fuel excise indexation inaccurate. No one actually involved in process could possibly say that.
@1560 – for a PM less than a year in to need assurances of his Cabinet’s “full support”… amazing.
The words “full support” have been uttered by Turnbull in reference to Abbott. The pin has been pulled.
The question is whether we lefties throw our “support” behind Malcolm.
Has he the courage to drop Direct Action?
Can we trust him to build the real NBN?
Answers in the negative, I think.
“Full support”? Abbott is toast.
I wouldn’t support Malcolm if he was holding on by one finger above a vat of goat innards.
Lizzie
It would not matter if Turnbull led fhe party, he is on same page as dear leader
[Turnbull said he supported all of the budget, including the $7 co-payment for GP visits and higher education changes and revealed he had had dinner with Mr Abbott in Canberra on Sunday night following the furore.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-insists-tony-abbott-has-liberal-partys-full-support-20140604-39j73.html#ixzz33f01dRMR
BK
I must thank you as well. My OH has conquered the Tablet so that he can get to your links before me every morning. It’s actually helping his stroke recovery in having to remember how to do it. You’re a hero to me 🙂
lizzie@1550
Expecting the utter worst from them – will rarely leave you wRONg.
BH
I had not realised your OH had suffered a stroke
@Victoria/1567
As I said, changing the leader doesn’t mean change of policies.
The whole notion that things will change, at a drop of the hat, on the bases of leader change is nonsense, it’s more to do with ideology.
BH
That makes it all worthwhile!
Is Abbott really going to the USA to meet Obama without his wife, the First Lady?
@1573 … I’m assuming Peta is going with him…
Malcolm Turnbull is a social liberal but an economic hardliner. Were Turnbull to become leader the ‘look and feel’ of the Government might change a bit, but apart from dropping a couple of Abbott brain farts, like PPL and Knighthoods, he won’t change the hard line direction sprung on the country in the Budget. And he won’t get the job unless he reassures his colleagues that he will do nothing on climate change.
[ Who is talking to the ABC? Truss should read the riot act ]
Its shades of ‘Iron Bar’ boasting on 4 Corners how the tories ambushed howard back in the day.
[Is Abbott really going to the USA to meet Obama without his wife, the First Lady?]
And there I was thinking that Peta was the First Lady.
Ru
I thought Margie was on the plane with Abbott?
Victoria
One of the joys of getting older. Huge surpriseto all but he’s a 2x cancer survivor and takes all in his stride. No physical impairment byt his memory lapses are sometimes hilarious. We find laughing at it works better than getting stressed.
We’re lucky. 56 treasured years so far.
I manage to lurk and am grateful to you all for keeping me up to date but Drs orders are OH is to be watched 24/7. He’s active – I’m bugg..ed 🙂
[Seriously… what the f**k is wrong with these people?!]
They like to win and like to boast about it. Even if it means they destroy themselves in the process.
Clive palmer is being interviewed on 7.30 right now
ruawake
John Key set the Australasian standard of “Mateship” with Barak. JG was up there as well. Tones’ ? Will be “Not so much”
[Infographic: Obama Accepts Rare Outsider Into Golf Game
New Zealand has long maintained a warm relationship with the United States, but few measures of bilateralism are as meaningful as the one that occurred on Thursday. In the final days of his vacation in Hawaii, President Obama hit the links with New Zealand Prime Minister John Key and his teenage son Max, an unlikely inclusion in the President’s normally insular golf game.]
http://swampland.time.com/2014/01/03/obama-golfs-with-new-zealand-prime-minister/
BH
Your OH is a tough cookie and he is also fortunate to have you looking out for him. 🙂
BK
With China and the US upping their game, we no longer have that excuse that what we do for the climate as a country is insignificant. 1st and 3rd largest by population. If only we can get India on board.
Raaraa
From leader to pariah in one election! Shame.
lizzie@1557
Thank you so much for posting that link. I have very little faith in this government doing anything other than make the situation worse.
Meanwhile Labor seem to have dropped the ‘environment’ ball completely?
Thanks victoria. We Swannies fans are made of steel!
BTW I was buoyed by your post re the kids at school being politically aware. Social media has its value
Mikehilliard
Mark Butler was on telly yesterday emphasising that Hunt is lying about Obama’s CC plan mirroring his DA nonplan.
News bulletins didn’t pick it up.
f any of the Poll Bludger s could stomach it they should ring Jones, Bolt and their ilk, pretending to be Abbotteers, putting the boot into Lefty Turnbull. 🙂
The Senators-elect Family First Bob Day and Liberal Democrats David Leyonhjelm should only be described as IPA Senators.
BH@1588
I missed Butler v Hunt. Hunt is a little pissant that has no place being anywhere near an environmental portfolio & how people like Hunt end up in positions of power will remain an eternal mystery to me.
Turnbull has been forced to back the budget sewerage.
No coming back for him!
I meant to add stirring the pot and keep it simmering.
[ Turnbull has been forced to back the budget sewerage. ]
He made his own *choice* no one force him to do anything.
He is as bad as any of them.
Mike
On my way back from Brissie I tuned into the ABC.
It kept phasing in and out but thought it was Andrew Leigh tearing shreds off the government for DA and lauding carbon pricing.
BH
Social media is definitely doing its bit to keep the young aware of what is going on
@Dee/1591
Yup, bring everyone into backing the budget, so no chance of Leadership.
Not really smart politics though.
Bushfire Bill
Posted Wednesday, June 4, 2014 at 9:12 am | Permalink
A perfect excuse:
The Australian Transport and Safety Bureau will call for tenders this week for vessels and sonar equipment to continue the hunt for the missing plane.
A Chinese ship has already begun conducting mapping of the Indian Ocean sea floor, so that sonar equipment can be towed safely and obstacles avoided.
===================================================
More likely so their submarines don’t bang into things
Dave
Turnbull had been invisible in regards to selling the budget.
BH
[We find laughing at it works better than getting stressed.]
As the classic Aussie cartoon said
[“For gor’sake, stop laughing – this is serious!”]
[ More likely so their submarines don’t bang into things ]
I hope someone is checking they aren’t also dropping submarine detection accoustic stuff for future use.