Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor

The second Newspoll since the budget finds effectively no change from the first on voting intention, although personal ratings for both leaders have moderated after big shifts last time.

Stephen Murray tweets that the fortnightly Newspoll in tomorrow’s Australian has Labor’s lead at 54-46, down from 55-45, from primary votes of 37% for Labor (down one), 36% for the Coalition (steady), 12% for the Greens (up one) and 15% for others (unchanged). However, the leadership ratings have moved back to trend after wild movements in the wake of the budget, with Tony Abbott up three on approval to 33% and down one on disapproval to 59%, and Bill Shorten down four to 38% and up four to 43%. Shorten’s big lead as preferred prime minister is nonetheless intact, the result shifting from 44-34 to 45-35.

Also out today is the latest result from Morgan, combining two weekends’ worth of face-to-face and SMS polling from a sample of 3247, likewise shows a holding pattern with Labor down half a point on the primary vote to 38%, the Coalition steady on 35%, the Greens down one to 11%, and Palmer United up one to a new high of 7.5%. On two-party preferred, Labor leads 55-45 if preferences are allocated as per the 2013 election result and by 56.5-43.5 based on respondents’ allocation, which respectively amounts to a drop for Labor of 1.5% and 1% on the poll conducted in the immediate aftermath of the budget.

In other polling news, it emerged today that Nielsen will shortly quit the political polling game to “focus on core strategic work directed at consumer purchasing and media consumption”. This will be effective from July, which I take to mean two more monthly results are still to come. Nielsen has been providing Fairfax with polling since the start of 1995, at which point the series travelled under the name of AGB McNair, which would shortly be acquired by the global market research concern then known as ACNielsen. Despite Fairfax’s present program of heavy cost-cutting, the organisation promises it is “currently exploring a range of options to strengthen and broaden the new Fairfax poll’s depth and reach”.

As one pollster leaves, another arrives – we will be hearing more in future from an outfit called I-view, which has lately taken to publishing fortnightly attitudinal results from its online polling. Its most recent results gauged opinion on the budget both before and after the event, and are well in line with the findings of other pollsters. I-view’s parent company is international market research firm Ipsos, whose UK branch Ipsos MORI is one of the biggest names in polling in that country.

UPDATE (Essential Research): This week’s fortnightly rolling aggregate finds the good ship Essential Research catching up on the budget backlash with a two-point drop in the Coalition vote to 38%, with Labor steady on 39% and the Greens and Palmer United each up a point, to 10% and 6% respectively. Labor gains a point on two-party preferred, its lead now at 53-47. Of the other questions asked, two are of particular interest. One relates to best person to lead the Liberal Party, the first such poll conducted since the election. This has Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott 31% to 18%, with Coalition voters favouring Abbott 43-27 and Labor supporters doing so for Turnbull to the tune of 37-3, with Joe Hockey on 6% and Julie Bishop on 4%. The last time Essential asked this question was in late July last year, at which point Turnbull was on 37%, Abbott on 17% and Hockey on 10%, lending credence to the notion that the latter has taken a hit from the budget. The other is the spectacular finding that 47% would support Labor blocking the budget and forcing a new election, with only 40% opposed.

Further questions find the budget having been deemed to have cut too heavily by 48%, too little by 11%, and just enough by 21%; 53% thinking Labor should vote against some of the budget, 18% against all of it, and 18% against none of it; the deficit levy deemed least deserving of blocking and deregulation of university fees the most. A semi-regular question on party most trusted to handle various issues has the Coalition taking double-digit post-budget hits on education, health, climate change and protection of Australian jobs and local industries, more moderate ones on management of the economy and political leadership, and none at all on security, asylum seekers and managing population growth.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,759 comments on “Newspoll: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    Countdown to freedom from this Bill being passed in Qld Parliament is ticking down to minutes

  2. [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 9m
    The Nationals played for fools by Liberals during the pre budget rebate re diesel v fuel rebate according to ABC. Thoughts @Barnaby_Joyce ?]

  3. [ The treasurer says the latest national accounts show the resilience of the economy, with growth at its strongest in about two years. ]

    ABCTV News at midday in Sydney had the boss of the ABS explaining the data – he said the biggest factor was seasonal – that normally the mines in WA expect to be damaged/ closed/ flooded in the period reported on due to cyclones etc.

    This year that didn’t happen which helped muchly.

  4. Re Lefty e @1628: The great thing about the budget reception has been watching the LNP slowly confront how far right of the mainstream they are.

    Most of their sacred cows are electoral poison.

    By rights the Coalition should be unelectable. Outside of boardrooms, executive suites and maybe some economics departments, there are very few fans of free market ideology. And no one wants to lose benefits (and that includes the denizens of boardrooms and executive suites).

    The bulk of voters do not want to change the shape of Australian society. They believe in the Australian Fair Go. They want to make it work better; they want to pay less tax; but don’t want to cut any government program that benefits them personally. They might want to wind back the safety net for ‘bludgers’ but not fir nice, respectable people like themselves.

    So the Liberals had to hide their real intentions. They appealed to social conservatism. They appealed to racism. They trash-talked the economy. With their media allies (and a bit of help from Labor) they engendered an atmosphere of chaos and crisis. They said they could fix everything if they stopped the boats and stopped the carbon tax.

    They persuaded people to vote against their interests. Labor have to get the message out : voters – you were lied to. You can’t believe anything that this government promises.

  5. Glen was a good guy through the early Rudd years when most of us were gloating.

    He was a big Bilson fan so let’s hope he’s working in the office of Minister for Small Business

  6. [What purpose does it serve for the Libs to brag about doing the Nats over. I dont get it. ]

    Scores to settle – rivals to undermine.

    Some campers not happy – others boasting.

  7. Something for the activists to use at the right place and time and I apologize if it has been suggested before but a mate of mind suggests that the U.S. students chant used during the Vietnam War demonstrations i.e. Hey Hey LBJ how many kids did you kill today be changed to Hey Hey Tony A how may lies have you told today.

  8. When shops are permitted to be open on days of their choosing, then they can pitch a fit about wage structures being out of touch with how people live.

    I’d go further and say when you can see a medical specialist on Sunday morning, go to the bank or post office without having to duck out of work and when football finals are played on Tuesday.

  9. Dave

    I didn’t say that Turnbull did not ideologically support the budget but that he didn’t want to be tainted by promoting/selling it.

  10. [What purpose does it serve for the Libs to brag about doing the Nats over. I dont get it.]

    Love PvO getting in the faces of the Liberals. 🙂

  11. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    Jeff Seeney in Parliament at the moment going “Union – boooooo”. Put it on my resume mate

  12. Anyone noticed how, in the Murdoch rags and on the Liberal PArty side, suddenly they’re NOT trash-talking the economy anymore? They’re talking it up.

    Looks like the penny’s dropped, at last.

  13. I just flicked over to paul murray on sky. Good grief. He together with his guests are raving on about the unions. What a right wing bunch of hacks.

  14. [And if the economy is growing, why do we need this nasty budget?]


    Tanya Plibersek had a great response to Speers this arvo. He asked about the excellent growth figures and she said, with huge smile on face, wtte that that they showed how accurate PEFO was and that Hockey has been talking rubbish.

  15. Triple 😆 On uber shill Paul Murray’s program Planet Janet extolling the virtues of Nap Time and his “position of strength”

  16. Vic – they are in office now and want the jobs that others have – at all sorts of levels – so dob in your rival/ enemy to the media.

    Yes, its counter productive, but hopefully much more to come.

    All so soon though ?

  17. As someone who spent the last 22 years of my working life on night shift and in that time basically worked every Sunday except when i was on holiday I have

  18. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    Jeff Seeney is lecturing people about personal attack – and it’s such a farce, that even he’s laughing and can’t keep a straight face!

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 1m

    What a joke!

  19. @Bh/1669

    Labor needs to continue to use this method, Clive did a good job, now it’s Labor’s turn to do it.

    Simple information to the public.

  20. Why do we need a HFC expert from Canada? Telstra and Optus has put in this system before, surely we have plenty of talent there.

  21. Bloody ipad

    As someone who spent the last 22 years of my working life on night shift and in that time basically worked every Sunday except when i was on holiday I have to say that the penalty rates are small compensation for the way it messes up your family life.

    Call me old fashioned but there is something to be said for a family sitting down to a meal together more than once a week and sharing weekend activities like kids sport, the beach, picnics etc.

    I think that the move to deregulation of working hours and things like FIFO will have social impacts down the track, if it isn’t happening already.

    We have all these god bothering Tories going on about how important the traditionl family

  22. Done it again

    We have all these god bothering Tories going on about how important the traditional family is at the same times they are undermining it.

  23. [I didn’t say that Turnbull did not ideologically support the budget but that he didn’t want to be tainted by promoting/selling it. ]

    Thats the first time the word *ideologically* has been used in our discussion.

    You said he was *forced* which I disagreed with.

    You still haven’t shown how he is unhappy with or doesn’t support the budget?

    Is there anything on the record of him saying such?

    How do you know?

  24. The Royal Commission is quite brave opening up this case, the transcripts of which were posted on Twitter some time ago by Chris Murphy who has been pursuing the matter diligently. When they reappear, it will make shocking reading. This is a précis

    [Tony Abbott first met John Nestor at the St Patrick’s seminary in Manly in 1984, when they were training for the Catholic priesthood.
    They became friends and kept in touch several times a year even after their life journeys went in different directions.
    Abbott went into politics. Nestor completed his training and became a priest in the Wollongong diocese of NSW.
    When Nestor found himself before a Wollongong magistrate in 1997 charged over the alleged indecent assault of a teenage altar boy, Abbott came to his defence with a character reference.
    Asked to describe his friend, the then parliamentary secretary to the Employment Minister said: “An extremely upright and virtuous man. I guess one of the things that I like very much about John when I first met him was his maturity – intellectual, social, emotional. And he was, to that extent I guess, a beacon of humanity at the seminary.”
    Abbott added that Nestor was a man with “high expectations of himself and others”.
    “I can recall … being more than a little annoyed with him because he would want to bring me up to the mark, bring me back to the path of virtue from time to time and that didn’t always go over too well with me.”
    The priest admitted in court that he had slept, wearing boxer shorts and a singlet, on mattresses on a floor in his presbytery with the boy and his younger brother some time between June and September 1991.
    However he rejected the accusation he assaulted the boy.
    Nestor was convicted in the Wollongong Local Court on February 18, 1997, and sentenced to 16 months in jail, with the magistrate describing it as a “gross breach of trust”.]

  25. This was linked earlier by zoidlord. Is Labor going to enter into this discussion anytime soon?

    [More links are emerging between private ‘for profit’ colleges and the Liberal Party, amid growing concerns at Abbott Government reforms to higher education which will shift almost $1 billion of public funding into the private sector.

    New Matilda’s ongoing investigation into the tertiary sector shake-up has revealed that the owner of a private Sydney college which has been a major donor to the Liberal Party attended an overseas business forum with a NSW Liberal MP last year.]

  26. Rossmcg

    Groups have been formed, social workers, counselors employed to deal with family stress, bust ups etc…FIFO workers.

  27. Tonights ABC story about the Fuel excise just seems odd, just how off track has this government become in just a short period of time.

    This is the time a government pulls rank and focused on message yet just when it might have a circuit breaker thanks both to the Victorian crisis and the oversea trips we have the adults revealing the silly games which we the voters don’t need to know about unless you want us to view you with complete contempt.

  28. I disn’t think we were goinging to get one today but the Libs Vs Nats is another “Bite ya on the bum.” move. ( wish I could have thought of a better word than move, to many snorts of the old port and puffs on my cigars.

    Look forward to Tomorrow’s

  29. [I agree, but many profess to be Christian, I only mention it to underline what a bunch of hypocrites they are ]

    Its evil when the Church covers up for them and moves them on so that it can all start again etc.

  30. Dave

    Who said Turnbull was unhappy with the budget?

    I said, imo, he was forced to get out and sell it.

    It was my opinion that he was trying to distance himself.

    In one of the links posted here, allegedly a couple of senior ministers questioned his motives for not being out there selling the budget.

    His absence from the budget sell has served him well in the polls.

  31. @Victoria/1694

    Well there is an earlier answer to a question, regarding CPI:

    “JASON OM: Currently student debt increases in line with the Consumer Price Index, now around 2.5 per cent. That’s changing to the 10-year Government bond rate to reflect the true cost to Government. The bond rate is currently around 3.5 per cent but could rise to up to six per cent.”

  32. Is this new polling from Possum/Reachtel?

    Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 12m

    Regardless of who you would vote for, do you believe the Newman gov has demonstrated it deserves to be re-elected

  33. Dee

    [ I said, imo, he was forced to get out and sell it.

    It was my opinion that he was trying to distance himself.]

    No. This is the first time your have said, *imo* – here is the original –

    [Turnbull has been forced to back the budget sewerage. ]

    So fine, thats your opinion – I disagree with that for the reasons already stated.

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