With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.
On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.
Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.
The lead story on the Daily Telecrap site is a bust up between Liz Hayes (of 60 Minutes) and someone I’ve never heard of. There’s also a prominent story about a ‘cock up’ on another TV show I don’t watch (Masterchef).
Batts is way down the list and appears not to have been updated since yesterday. The story is hopelessly slanted of course, accusing Rudd of wanting to breach cabinet confidentiality. Obviously it’s not turning out the way the LNP-Murdoch coalition anticipated.
Palmer’s mid afternoon snooze and ICAC feature further down. News on the Budget must be deeply buried.
And most Sydneysiders get their information on how the country is travelling from this plus commercial TV and radio.
LOL
Rudd, the biggest micro-managing prime minister in Australian history, unicorns in the direction of his MO, his fellow ministers and his bureaucrats.
I did like Rudd’s fraudian slip, calling Kruyk ‘Crook’.
The question is this, ‘Will the RC question relevant MO staff and relevant departmental staff.’
After all, several of them have already had their names mentioned and their reputations dragged through the merde.
Sir Mad
Thanks for posting. I have only been a cat owner for a few years and never was a cat person. But i have since become a convert. Tara the cat is a beauty!
Ged Kearney presser
I see dave has posted the cat video as well. 🙂
[Steven Grant Haby
Posted Thursday, May 15, 2014 at 10:56 am | Permalink
On a slightly different tack Victoria’s WorkCover is FINALLY becoming involved in the Essendon FC supplements saga from 2013. Not before time]
Good point.
There have been a number of reports recently that relationships between ASADA and the AFL, and also between ASADA and Essendon FC have ruptured completely.
One of the reports referred specifically to ASADA being very, very pissed off with the Hird people’s public spinning, and with Little’s public commentary.
Anyhoo. Whatever love engendered and/or brokered by Demetriou has been lost compeltely and the gloves are off.
Lawyers’ picnics galore coming up.
[I hope Rudd does his complicated speech thing, and use 25 words where one would do.]
I’ve already heard “specificity”, but not “programmatic”.
I think not blocking supply from Labor is a grave mistake, now it gives the option for Abbott to negotiate his way out of trouble, and put in a few nasties.
[Stephen Koukoulas @TheKouk 12m
Could the paid parental leave scheme be framed on the same basis as HECS? Pay back money when wage above $50k, paying interest at bond rate?]
“@political_alert: A Greens bill to establish a national #ICAC has failed to pass the Senate. ALP joining National and Liberal senators to defeat 43-9 #auspol”
Labor does not have the balls to block bills.
Ged Kearney uses language like this in presser that is as low impact as it gets: “serious risk for long-term social discohesion”. I knew Jenny George well when leader of both NSW Teachers and later when she was my local MP until retirement. Sadly, at such a perilous time, Ged Kearney is no Jenny George.
[Rudd, the biggest micro-managing prime minister in Australian history, unicorns in the direction of his MO, his fellow ministers and his bureaucrats.
]
I’m guessing that is ‘fact’ from the voices in your head rather than opinion based on rumour and stories of political opponents.
wtf++
John Howard @johnjowardpm 12m
The Lord giveth and taketh away. The sooner kids understand that Climate Change is God’s work, they will know no need for Climate Scientists
vic
Yes, dave beat me to it. I’m more of a cat person these days, mainly due to the fact I was mauled by a dog when I was ten years old. It was pretty frightening I can assure you. I could have done with Tara the cat turning up that day! I still like dogs, but since then have been a bit wary of bigger ones and don’t own any at the moment.
Boewar @ 156
I am surprised that WorkCover has not become involved earlier given that for all intents and purposes the Essendon FC is just like any other workplace. I am sure that if this behaviour went on in say a trucking company or hospital then the authorities would have been all over this much sooner.
I agree I think that it is now ‘open season’ on this issue and the lawyers no doubt will benefit.
“@AustralianLabor: “Tony Abbott…lied on pensions, he lied on Medicare, he lied on no new taxes.” @billshortenmp #auspol #Budget2014”
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@71
Don’t worry about it Puff.
I think Kev is showing he can handle it and turn it back on Abbott.
It also appears that the penny has dropped with at least some of the parents and their hurt and anger seems to no longer be directed at the Rudd Govt.
[ One packet of cigarettes cost $22. That gives you three visits to the doctor. You can spend just over $3 on a middy of beer, so that’s two middies of beer to go to the doctor. Let’s have some perspective about the costs of taking care of our health. ]
Seriously?? And what about the single mum who doesn’t smoke or frequent the pub Jo? Does this justification apply to her as well?
What about the person under 30, no family to support them, who has been unemployed for 4 months Jo?? They would have given up on the pub long before unless its to go there and sell their arse to get by.
You are an out of touch scumbag Hockey. That much is just sooooooo painfully obvious now.
Wow indeed.
[King George Bludger @GeorgeBludger 7m
Wow “@John_Hanna: Amazing RT @Gian_TCatt Woodstock? No. Glasto? No! Its the #BentleyBlockade protesting Metgasco pic.twitter.com/K5hqewssOC”]
Sir mad
I can well understand your fear of dogs. Getting mauled by one would do fhat!
I was never a cat person until I got my own a few years ago, i have surprised myself as to how much affection i have for my cat.
[Tracy Walker @thewollemipine 9m
@DianneCostin @margokingston1 @larissawaters and now we learn that Australian Water Holdings has 15% stake in Metgasco!!! ]
Housing demands, dropping in NZ, China, Australia, UK.
Bad news for Hockey.
Seriously this mob have lost the bloody plot. I am gobsmacked
Truss now says seniors want the pension because they are living the high life spending on luxuries.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/seniors-want-pension-because-they-are-living-high-life-spending-on-luxuries-says-deputy-pm-warren-truss/story-fnii5v71-1226918078356
Lizzie
[Tracy Walker @thewollemipine 9m
@DianneCostin @margokingston1 @larissawaters and now we learn that Australian Water Holdings has 15% stake in Metgasco!!!]
Hmmm. Very interesting indeed…….
Talk later guys…..
I had thirty years of cats and then got a dog, then another one.
They have been a constant delight, particularly in the way they reacted to the last of the cats, who was definitely in charge of the house.
Steve777 @ 112
Which the Howard government presumably did on the Sydney airport noise insulation scheme which it directly sub contracted and paid for directly. Apparently, 5 of the relative handful of those houses caught fire.
@adamgartrell: Abbott’s key foreign policy adviser, Mark Higgie, will replace Duncan Lewis as EU/NATO ambassador in Brussels.
So maybe Europe relations will go down and relations with Indonesia will go up 😛
Thomas. Paine.@108
I must say I enjoy your posts TP.
I don’t have the energy to respond to all the crap that gets thrown at Rudd on PB.
If Julia’s staff had been involved we would probably had a ‘citizens assembly’ or such nonsense before doing anything about the HIP or even the whole GFC response. She employed idiots.
@174
Next Truss will say it’s the Disabled fault for being born (if they haven’t said it already).
Retweeted by sortius
Lady Van Badham @vanbadham 5m
SPEAKER CONFIRMED: the great @unsungsongs at Melbourne #bustthebudget rally. Sunday, May 18, 2pm, State Library. Please RT. #MarchInMay
[Could the paid parental leave scheme be framed on the same basis as HECS? Pay back money when wage above $50k, paying interest at bond rate?]
That, sir, is a good idea, if child-raising and childcare costs were taken off taxable income before comparing it to the threshold.
Now, why don’t we do similar to the funding we give our elite athletes?
[and now we learn that Australian Water Holdings has 15% stake in Metgasco!!!]
Man, those guys are up to their balls in it.
Has Abbott done anything of note since becoming PM?
Yes.
Abbott has set the precedent to discontinue any cabinet confidentiality.
Well done Monkey!
Watch the owners of the zoo run around protecting their prized primate at all costs.
@dannolan: Here is a video of pyne dropping the c-wizzle http://t.co/KP0MIKphAi
zoidlord
@johnjowardpm @PmPaulKeating The Lord helps those who help themselves so the quicker we get off our arses and do something re CC the better
My mum is in a position where she will have to apply for a pension soon. Just like Truss said. She’s 84, has a small amount of super, because she reentered the workforce late after having a family and doing volunteer work for many years, and continues to work one day a week for pay and volunteer for a few more, and just bought a couple of hearing aids for several thousand dollars so she could keep working.
http://delimiter.com.au/2014/05/15/4g-networks-match-nbn-claims-liberal-mp/
“Wow, haven’t seen the “wireless will kill the NBN” claim for a while. Quite amusing that Ciobo attempted to roll that one out. I imagine Tim Watts must have had a chuckle to himself about that.”
“@ABCnewsIntern: Really? Pyne wasn’t kicked out for 24 hours? Just a reminder to refer to people by their correct titles? No biggie, Madam Speaker.”
guytaur
Pyne revealing his true self? Posh Adelaide speaker? Rubbish!
BUSHFIRE – My partner and I just got a cat. Gets very grumpy in the morning because she is waiting to crawl under the doona and spend the rest of the day snoozing in the middle of the bed. Reappears 10 hours later for her treats.
Puff, the Magic Dragon.@ 71
Great post congaratulations!
“@bkjabour: Christopher Pyne’s office said he called Shorten a “grub”.”
I swear, you couldn’t make up Christopher Pyne. He really is the classic Liberal politician Labor supporters like me love to hate, posh accent and all.
[ Seriously this mob have lost the bloody plot. I am gobsmacked
Truss now says seniors want the pension because they are living the high life spending on luxuries. ]
I think they have not really considered where this logic takes them. They are essentially saying that the Pension is ONLY a safety net. That’s the narrative they are trying to get up.
Now, generally out there in voter land, the feeling is that the Pension is an entitlement, particularly for people who have worked all their lives, because it is funded from the taxes they have paid all their lives.
Now for me that kind of parallels the reasoning from people who support Govt funding of Private Schools. They reckon they pay taxes and so are entitled to have the Govt give money to the Private School of their choice since they fund other taxpayers kids out of tax money.
By the reasoning Truss and Co are using about super they should not be funding private schools.
Fair enough if people have huge amounts in super then they should not qualify for a pension. But there are a lot of reasons why that super balance may get run down. Sickness, paying off debts like mortgages, actually needing to buy a new car….getting ripped off by a shonky Liberal donating financial adviser. So what, they say bad luck back to work then??
In terms of fairness and budget sustainability the ALP’s proposal to tax super income over $100k per year was very sound policy. And frankly would have pissed off a lot fewer voters than the kind of crap we are seeing from the idiot coalition at the moment.
@PRIME7SthCoast: A anti-pension age hike pic posted by 78 y/o Bobby Turner from Port Kembla on @StephenJonesMP FB page has gone viral http://t.co/6iMb16TZUV
Mmm, maybe Chrissie’s feeling a bit of pressure.
Hockey’s disgusting comment re 2 beers = payment to doctor is in Fairfax media:
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/less-than-two-middies-joe-hockey-defends-7-gp-fee-20140515-zrdb6.html
Essentially he is telling the people of Australia that they are all no-hopers who would rather waste money on booze than look after their own health or that of their dependents.
This is how the “privileged” like Hockey and Abbott view their countrymen – ignorant fools who are there to be barely tolerated and are only to be feted at election time.
Hockey should read the Coles advertising on how to feed four people for $10 – that is the sort of $7 health tax comparison that really applies to many people. Pay to see the doctor and go hungry.
What a difference between the Courier Mail’s headline this morning:
“DOES THIS GUY EVER GIVE UP” referring to KRudd’s refusal to agree to the redacted statement.
I nearly threw my entire stock of the CM in the garbage bin.
Now checking the internet edition the CM is saying:
“What they didn’t want Rudd to say”.
“Kevin Rudd’s statement that was redacted has now been revealed to insulation inquiry as he denies scheme was rolled out too quickly”.
Obviously they are referring to Abbott & Brandis attempt to influence the evidence presented to the RC. Perhaps I should print it out and staple it to the front of my remaining CM’s (claiming they (CM) have retracted their false headline)?
Talk about all over the shop!
The basic proposition of the Abbott government is that it has a mandate to break any promise it made in order to get elected, in order to completely overturn the way Australian society is set up – socially, financially, in education, health, aged care and many other areas – ALL in its first term.
They will waffle on about “More work to do” etc. etc. in later terms (if they get any) but they are seeking right now to abrogate the trust Australian voters gave them, so they can make such radical changes, changes that believe and hope can never be reviewed or fully rescinded.
They’re throwing away nearly forty years of health policy in 8 months. Ditto for education and aged care. And none of it was foreshadowed in any election material provided before September 2013. In fact quite the opposite was promised.
THAT is why people are angry They’re seeing a way of life that was promised to be maintained by the Coalition, demolished overnight.
They made the promises because they sought to quarantine the voters’ frustration with Labor’s internal wars, from what were generally popular Labor policies.
The Coalition’s pitch was “Elect us, and the only thing that’ll change is who’s in charge.” As for Labor policies, the Coalition claimed to be on a “unity ticket” with the vast bulk of them.
The voters were warned by Labor and by some commentators that Abbott was a known exaggerator and liar (in one instance at his own admission) and that there was a radical, brutal program inside the Abbott velvet glove.
In response to this, Abborr reassured everyone that this was not so, that he would keep his promises, that he was there to bring decency and honesty back to government.
He reassured us all that there would be no sudden discoveries of budget black holes, or shock, or horror at what was found under the rug when they occupied the ministerial offices.
It’s all been proved to have been a tissue of lies, a farrago of falsehoods.
No wonder the punters are pissed off.
12 Noon News on ABC – Rudd has said the program was in the hands of the ever so delightful and never shifty Mark Arbib.