BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  1. Biggest mistakes Coalition – 1) should have bought in a mini-budget immediately when coming to power – they have now been in government for 8 months and have to take the responsibility whereas they could have blamed the ALP in their honeymoon (?) and 2) and they should have said nothing in the campaign – they were always going to win as the voters wanted to get rid of Rudd/Gillard.

  2. Poodle caught out ( lying)

    ”Fees will go up and they will go up quite significantly,” Professor Chapman, director of policy impact at the Australian National University, said.

    ”I expect most universities will increase tuition fees to international student fee levels, which are currently about three times higher. The Group of Eight universities will do that pretty quickly.

    ”Past changes to HECS didn’t deter students from entering university, but now that there will be a real rate of interest on the debt we are in uncharted waters.”

    7.30 Report last night was too rushed ( too many Fibs to catch out)
    Sarah Ferguson let the Poodle get away with not answering ramifications of unlocking Uni fees

  3. In the next round of polls it will also be interesting to check out the PUP vote.

    Palmer has cut through very well with his Budget response. I wonder whether most of the vote that comes away from the government will actually go to Palmer, rather than to anyone else.

    So that’s my bold prediction. Slight bump to ALP, but big bump to PUP.

    Feel free to laugh at me if I’m completely wrong 😀

  4. On the previous thread, someone suggested that Labor let monster of a budget through, to bring home to voters the consequences of their choice. It certainly does bring into focus the way in which so many voted against their own interests as a result of the hype over the ‘Carbon Tax’ and the moral panic over boats.

    But I don’t favour just allowing this travesty to pass. Bad policy should be rejected. But it does suggest a slogan: “this is what happens when you vote without using your brain”.

  5. Good Morning

    “@CSGstinks: I’m speechless ! @LocktheTweed WoooooooHooooooo!!! #Metgasco MEL drilling at #BentleyBlockade suspended and referred to #ICAC.”

  6. Morning all. This program cut in the budget was aimed at first home buyers.

    It was not very successful but highlights an issue in this budget and former Labor policy that gets very little attention – inter generational equity, or lack of it. In the ABC summary of budget winners and losers there is a category for young people. It is only bad news – no carrots at all. On top of the burden from the housing pyramid scheme created by negative gearing, Gen X has good reason to complain, Gen Y almost as much. For many baby boomers, the cleverest decision they ever made was their year of birth, especially if between 1948 and 1955.

    In wealth statistics this problem sticks out like a sore thumb, yet neither major party comments on it very much.

    Have a good day all.

  7. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
    Just wait until you see the Grattan Institute’s study on how much uni fees will go up!
    Economists slam the budget for disproportionately hitting the poor.
    The regressive GST is clearly back on the table.
    And it still gets worse for the Liberals at ICAC.
    ICAC pounces on the Mudgee Council too.
    Legal arguments at the pink batts RC this morning will be interesting indeed. And so will be the Commissioner’s ruling!
    What was it about Premiers and pots of money?
    Adrian Piccoli lifts the lid off the cynical education cuts.
    And motoring organisations call out Abbot and Hockey for being meaningless and pathetic on the fuel tax.
    Tony Wright on Abbott and Hockey having difficulties in salesmanship.

  8. Section 2 . . .

    Climate change policy set back for decades.
    Big doubts over Direct Action and its funding.
    Tony Windsor most pissed off over Hunt’s removal of protection of states’ drinking water.
    Abbott heading for a big prang in the Senate.
    It gets worse for Essendon as WorkCover descends upon them.
    Alan Moir on budget pain. It would appear that Hockey’s cigar will now stick like Abbott’s red Speedos.
    And the same goes for David Pope.
    Ron Tandberg also picks up the theme.
    David Rowe has them singing and dancing. He has been drawing Cormann with one red eye – any idea why?

  9. On the Royal Commission into pink batts.

    Rudd’s legal strategy besides being correct for due process is supported by the families of those that died. They want the full story.

    Abbott really has stuffed up.

  10. This is why Abbott has been so successful. People react to headlines and don’t look deeper.

    [GP clinics are already counselling worried patients, with patient numbers halving in one large practice in south-west Sydney on Wednesday as people mistakenly tried to avoid the fees.]

    Read more:

  11. My heart sings with joy this morning. People power at Bentley and The Arsey into Pink Batts showing brandis for the legal numbskull he is. Oh, the irony!

  12. Blocking supply is a dumb idea, and against ALP policy in any case. However. voting against all and everything requiring separate legislation (of which there is heaps) on the basis that Abbott lied to the people and it hits is a smart idea.

    Let Abbott call a DD, or otherwise do the hard yards and prepare for September 2016.

  13. guytaur

    Pyne’s logic seems to be that if introducing fees for uni didn’t affect the numbers, increasing the fees by a factor of X won’t make any difference either.

    The word is that it certainly will affect females and the poor. But why should Pyne care? He’s a privileged male bastard.

  14. Morning all

    Thanks Otiose, BK and others for the reading material, so much going on


    My daughter and her boyfriend both have these savings accounts. Dee had linked ABC report last night re the demise of the scheme. I texted my daughter this morning who was on her way to work re same. She was disapponted that the scheme is being wound down.

  15. Tanya Plibersek was interviewed on sky news yesterday. Speers asked her about blocking supply. She said that wtte Labor dont do that and wont start now

  16. On previous thread. Worth reposting. I am gobsmacked too

    Bushfire Bill
    Posted Thursday, May 15, 2014 at 12:27 am | PERMALINK

    Simon Benson has been eating his Wheeties, re the Pinl Batts RoyalCommission…


    THE royal commission into the pink batts disaster has turned into a North Korean show trial.

    The image of a former prime minister in a witness box was bad enough.

    The fact he was banned from telling the entire sordid story of a bungled policy that killed four people was a disgrace.

    The Abbott government is as culpable now as is Labor, for denying families the truth. It broke a century of tradition by releasing confidential cabinet documents in its attempt to damage the former Rudd/GiIlard cabinet, and any of those remaining now in opposition.

    But now it wants to decide which bits of it the rest of us get to see.

    The government’s lawyer tried to suggest that at no time in history had a former prime minister sought to reveal cabinet secrets.

    The hypocrisy.

    Gotta say I’m gob-smacked at this.

    For Benson to go all out against the Abbott government is unprecedented.]

  17. One of Murdoch’s ex employees starting to sing for his supper. And the target of the hacking may give this grubby example of Murdoch modus operandi some renewed legs

    [London: The former royal editor of Rupert Murdoch’s News of the World tabloid admitted for the first time at a London court on Wednesday that he had hacked the voicemails of Britain’s Prince William and Prince Harry, and William’s wife Kate Middleton.
    Clive Goodman, who was jailed in 2007 for illegally accessing the voicemails on the mobiles of royal aides, told the jury at the Old Bailey court he had hacked Queen Elizabeth’s grandsons in search of stories while working at the now-defunct tabloid.
    Middleton’s phone was hacked 155 times, William’s 35 and Harry’s nine times, the court was told.]

    Read more:

  18. Bk at 13 – “He has been drawing Cormann with one red eye – any idea why?” I guess because of Cormann’s I’ll b back from The terminator

  19. Sceptic

    [Credlin giving Tony the squirrel grip…. ouch!


    I think it is long time ALP and union activist Vilma Ward going the squirrel. It was hilarious yesterday seeing the Murdoch PR machine trying to peddle hard pointing out Vilma’s background.

    The dumbos only succeeded in giving the story more and more legs, indeed going viral with the idea that a 85 year old pensioner had lambasted a befuddled Abbott, whose only retort was “You obviously didn’t vote for me”

  20. [
    Bk at 13 – “He has been drawing Cormann with one red eye – any idea why?” I guess because of Cormann’s I’ll b back from The terminator

    Yeah, it has to be a Terminator reference.

  21. Guytaur and Roger B

    I heard a grab of the pink bats R Commish’s comments yesterday.

    He said WTTE “I expected the Labor ministers to use Cabinet Confidentiality as part of their defence. What I didn’t expect was the government which established the commission acting to prevent access to the full evidence and the Labor ministers keen to expose the full evidence”.

    Ian Hanger QC, the Commissioner, is now all the wiser about Abbott’s motives and character. As well, he now clearly knows of the incompetence and lack of ethics that characterise his learned friend, Brandis.

    I doubt that Hanger’s report will be imbalanced by any loyalty to those two malicious and unconscionable nincompoops.

    Brett Walker QC, Rudd’s brief, stated yesterday that Rudd’s evidence will “utterly disprove the claim that the pink batts preparation was a ‘weekend job’ “.

    Here is Jack Waterford’s January 2014 prediction of how the Commission would unfold …. not too far off the mark.

    Bad luck on this one Ms Credlin!

  22. sprocket
    Correct Villma applies the pressure.
    There are a lot of Abbott self inflicted wounds out there for the next election…
    ” you obviously didn’t vote for me” …. No & glad I didn’t …

  23. I’d like to see the exact figures to support this statement.

    [OLDER Australians are relying on the age pension because they are blowing their super on cruises and luxury items, Deputy Prime Minister Warren Truss has declared.

    Just hours after his Government handed down a harsh Budget, Mr Truss said 1100 people a week, in their mid-60s, were moving on to the age pension, with many accessing their super from age 60 and squandering it.

    “Increasingly, the lifestyle and the savings for superannuation are being seen as an opportunity to enjoy a few cruises and the luxuries of life for a few years until it runs out and then people wish to fall back on the age pension,” the Nationals leader told the Conservative Breakfast Club in Brisbane.]

  24. Guytaur – I think Brett Walker indicated Rudd’s strategy when he said it had been suggested that Pink Batts was a “Long Weekend” decision. Rudd wants to show that it was fully considered by cabinet.
    Anyone who sat down and thought ahead could have seen this coming, but George…well, George is George.

  25. [Prof. Peter Doherty ‏@ProfPCDoherty 13h
    What will ultimately cause more premature deaths? The pink batts scheme, or cutting billions out of health care?]

  26. Lizzie – I’m sure that people do that. But only because they haven’t been able to build up much super (maybe $50,000 – $100,000) so there is no hope of it keeping them safe and secure for the rest of their lives. For many of them, it’s the first luxury they’ve really had in their lives. They also haven’t built up much money because the finance industry has screwed them.

  27. psyclaw

    From your link on Insulation RC…

    Counsel assisting – no doubt expected by the Abbott government at least to be a combination of prosecutor and avenging angel – has been appointed by Attorney-General George Brandis, rather than the commission itself.

    He may prove to be as incompetent as Council assisting the Union RC

  28. [
    I’m sure that people do that. But only because they haven’t been able to build up much super (maybe $50,000 – $100,000) so there is no hope of it keeping them safe and secure for the rest of their lives.

    Yes, I would think that is the issue for many. Others probably use up whatever super they have to pay off their mortgage etc, so at least they have a secure roof over their head. My dad had to use up his super, which was less than $100,000 to secure his housing situation. He now lives off the pension.

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