BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  2. K 1 7

    Yes, I know that some probably do, for the reasons you give. In the past I have known fairly well off tradies who retired comparatively early with good savings, already owned their home, did “the trip” and then retired on the pension. But for Truss to make a generalisation like this is unfair on the thousands who either had no opportunity to accumulate much super, or whose circumstances kept them poor.

  3. K 1 7 and Sir Mad

    I suspect Truss has been watching too much commercial TV, with all the adverts for happy retirees living it up!

  4. Re Lizzie @44 – that’s got to be quoted by Labor in the enxt election campaign. The Liberals and Nationals not only despise public servants, the unemployed and disability pensioners as bludgers but also older Australians who draw the age pension after a lifetime of work, raising and family and paying taxes.

  11. This is a complete farce. Secular schools should not be forced to employ religious counsellors.

    [Schools will lose the option of appointing secular social workers under the national school chaplaincy program, for which the Abbott government has found an extra $245m in budget funding.

    While flagging big cuts to future school spending growth, the Coalition’s first budget earmarks the funding over five years to continue the chaplaincy scheme originally put into place by John Howard.

    But the education minister, Christopher Pyne, confirmed he would axe an option put in place by the Labor government for schools to opt for non-religious student welfare worker as an alternative to a chaplain providing “pastoral care”.

    “Counsellors and social workers in schools are really the responsibility of the states and territories,” Pyne told Guardian Australia on Wednesday.

    The Australian Education Union – which has long argued funds for the chaplaincy program should be redirected – described Pyne’s justification as “an extraordinary comment”.

    “So where does the Australian constitution say that the federal government is responsible for school chaplains,” said the federal president, Angelo Gavrielatos.]

  12. Sorry to keep posting “stuff” but I’m angry.

    [The Abbott government is “clearly uncomfortable” with the level of scrutiny that comes with office hence the disbandment of the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner, which oversees freedom of information services and privacy complaints, the opposition says.

    As part of the federal budget handed down by Treasurer Joe Hockey on Tuesday night, the Abbott government has removed more than $10 million in funding from privacy and freedom of information services, and abolished the Office of the Australian Information Commissioner.

    The Office of the Australian Information Commissioner provides public access to Commonwealth government information, protects the privacy of personal information, and manages the public’s right of access to documents under the Freedom of Information Act.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/it-pro/government-it/abbott-government-uncomfortable-with-freedom-of-information-laws-opposition-20140514-zrc1r.html

  13. @political_alert: Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will hold a brief doorstop at Parliament House this morning from 10.15am #auspol

  16. Now we need to see comparison between unredacted & redacted statements …. to see what Brandis was trying to censor….

    bet they are embarrassed about thoroughness of GFC & Global warming measures taken by Rudd Government & public service advice supporting actions

  17. How soon can we view the Coalition Cabinet discussions about the 2014 Budget – or were the decisions pulled secretly out of Joe’s back end?

  19. Abbott is entitled to feel surprised and upset at the reaction to his budget. He did not break faith with the Australian people. He has lied to them relentlessly and consistently throughout his political career. So why complain now.

  20. “@EX_V19: I haven’t seen post budget commentary like this since Mal Frazer told everyone ‘life wasn’t meant to be easy’”

  21. I am appalled, disgusted and horrified to see Former Prime Minister Rudd having to stand in a witness box in a show trial being questioned on secret Cabinet processes and the programs of the ALP government of the day. This is not to root out corruption ( as a AWB RC would do) or find illegality (ditto AWB) but just trying to humiliate a former PM and ALP gov’t.

    We really are a banana republic now, not a proud and modern first world democracy. This disgusting charade shames and humiliates us all. That it is being done in the name of grieving parents and exploits their grief and their sons’ deaths for political advantage, is an unforgivable act of pure bastardry.

  24. Puff

    I can see why Mr Rudd demanded that the whole statement be considered, because it is obvious from the answers he is now giving that the Insulation scheme was considered as part of the general thrust towards energy conservation, and had even been discussed at COAG. No wonder Abbott/Brandis wanted to pretend it was just a brainfart on a weekend.

  26. K-1-7
    Not to be flippant … the (new) parliament house has no front steps… part of egalitarian philosophy adopted bt PH architect Aldo Giurgola…the peoples house should not be above the people. Also part of reason for grass access over the roof… now blocked off!

    Shame Tony Abbott doesn’t have the same values.

  27. lizzie

    Rudd should have short presser ( is that possible?) after giving his evidence to explain duplicity of Abbott / Brandis in attempting to censor the evidence.

  30. I’m not sure that the next few opinion polls will be quite as bad for the govt as people think. Liberal voters have to go through the stages of grief first. It will be a couple of weeks before the full impact will be known

  31. I think that when Labor next win office, they should use the Coalitions confidential Cabinet papers for a ticker tape parade in front of Parliament house. It would be a fitting end to the Coalitions rule.

  32. Rudds’ problem .. he doesn’t understand “his own evidence “, council keeps having to lead him…nothing seems to have changed.

  33. Stages of electoral grief —

    1. They’re new, give them a chance.

    2. They don’t mean that to sound the way it does/They don’t actually intend to do that, they’re just flying a kite.

    3. They’ve made a mistake, and they’ll fix it up.

    4. I personally don’t like that decision, but it’s probably necessary.

    5. That’s not what I remember him saying, but hey, I might be mistaken.

    6. They’re lying.

    7. They’re lying, but all politicians lie.

    8. They’re lying, but the other side made them.

    9. They’re just as bad as each other.

    10. I’ll vote Greens/independents/PUP.

    11. No one can do a worse job than this mob.

    12. Get rid of them, no matter what the cost.

  35. sceptic @ 77

    Or perhaps someone other than Rudd should explain it? It definitely needs pointing out to the disinterested public.

  38. Not watching Rudd. Life’s too short. But until you’ve been in a witness box, you don’t know what it’s like. I’ve seen plenty of people trying to tell the truth cock it all up and say exactly what they don’t mean. Hence the old expression: the easiest way to lose a case is to call a witness.
    That said, how is he going?

  39. KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN @ 72

    Labor should announce a RCs into the Iraq War, including whether it amounted to a war crime (and prosecute if the answer is yes), and also who in the Howard ministry knew what AWB was doing on Iraq, with full access to all cabinet documents when it’s next in office.

    That would send panic through the LNP. It’d be a very cold day in Hell before they tried this nonsense again! If Labor lets them get away with it these political RCs will become the norm which isn’t good for democracy.

  40. A document is given to Rudd to read that counsel assisting agrees has no provenance and is not clear as to importance, or even to whom it was sent.

    Anyone could have typed it. They’re just throwing things at him and asking him to comment.

  41. Absolutely not wanting to reignite Labor War…

    what is now bleeding obvious from the questioning of Rudd is that the efficient operation of Executive Government ( hierarchy & filtering of advice ) stopped when it got to Rudd… Also telling is Rudd referred to his PS training.. reading advice cover to cover… no wonder he was dumped for clogging up the works..I bet he never took the advice / options offered in his office!

  42. SLOTHY – Pretty odd that the Poms had a massive RC into the war, all televised, and we had zero. Massive failure of our democracy

  44. The Simon Benson opinion piece on the uselessness of the Batts RC was not on the front page of the print version of the Daily Telegraph today.

    They put the one where it is insinuated that RUDD is frustrating the Commission. Absolutely no mention at all of the Abbott government’s decision to include Cabinet documents.

  45. lizzie

    maybe the people that put it together … staff in Julias’ office

    I think the evidence being gone over now was not prepared by Rudd… it appears to be a case in defence of general Labor Government record .. my guess by ex Julia staff & possibly Bills’

    Rudd in his usual way is confusing everything…lucky he isn’t armed or would shoot himself in both feet

  46. Rudd finally stating that the Batts program was about unemployment.

    Glad he’s finally stated the bleedin’ obvious.

    If it had been allowed to get bogged down in red tape then it would have been pointless. Too late and too little.

  47. [ Yes, I would think that is the issue for many. Others probably use up whatever super they have to pay off their mortgage etc, so at least they have a secure roof over their head. ]

    I’d say thats a VERY common situation, and its only going to get more so as people who have had to take on much larger huge mortgages over the last decade or so. Truss is talking through his arse and if he keeps following this “logic” and they try and raise the super preservation age they are going to be in even more trouble polling wise.

    With the pension age increasing to 70, many will see their only hope of retiring a reasonable time before they die is to put money into super and use that as self funded retirees. Up the preservation age and why would they bother? Dont forgo the income now, spend it, since the Govt will lock it up for so long as to make it likely inaccessible.

  48. sceptic

    Oh, I see what you’re getting at. I thought they were simply looking at the Cab docs at the time.

    Looking back, I remember that the insulation was definitely seen as part of energy conservation. Abbott/Brandis pretending that there was no such thing. That’s all.

  49. BB

    all too much for me… what should take 10 seconds is going on for an eternity.

    If the UN are stupid enough to appoint Rudd to Syria situation that sorry mess will never resolve.
    Off for a walk to clear my head

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