BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor

A quiet week for polling ahead of the budget, but the weekly poll aggregate nonetheless maintains the weakening trend for the Coalition and Tony Abbott.

With pollsters generally preferring to hold their fire until after the budget, this has been a fairly quiet week for polling, with only a pre-budget ReachTEL poll for Fairfax joining the regular weekly Essential Research. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate maintains its trend of four weeks in having Labor and Palmer United up, and the Coalition and the Greens down. Labor’s gain of 0.8% to 37.8% puts it 3.7% higher than where it was four weeks ago, while the Coalition’s 38.8% represents a descent over the same period from 42.0%. The Greens continue to cool down after the boost which followed the WA Senate election and the aberrant Nielsen result that immediately followed, while the Coalition decline has been reflected by a steady rise for Palmer United, from 4.3% to 6.2%.

On two-party preferred, Labor makes a slight 0.2% gain this week to 52.6%, its equal best headline result from BludgerTrack in its nearly 18 months of existence. In New South Wales the gain for Labor is 0.6%, giving it an extra gain there on the otherwise unchanged seat projection. The Essential Research poll also provides a new set of data for leadership ratings, which sees the trendlines continue in the directions established by Newspoll last week: Bill Shorten pulling out of the summer slump that followed his early honeymoon ratings, Tony Abbott down sharply on his mediocre early year figures, and a linear trend on preferred prime minister getting ever nearer to parity.

Methodological note: It has been noted that ReachTEL has been leaning slightly to Labor relative to other polls recently, something that was not evident in the pre-election polling on which its BludgerTrack bias measures had hiterto been based. Consequently, I am now applying to ReachTEL the same bias adjustment procedure I use for Morgan, the upshot of which is that its deviance over time from the voting intention results modelled by BludgerTrack is measured and controlled for. This adjustment has caused Labor’s gain this week to be slightly less than it would have been otherwise.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,950 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.6-47.4 to Labor”

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  1. Ray Hadley on 2GB is totally ignoring Kevin other than making a few snide remarks although he did read the daily tele article criticising Abbott (almost made me fall off my chair).

    The OH&S issue he said “he would say that” – well of course Ray, it doesn’t suit your narrative.

  2. I assume this is not very exciting viewing. You’ve all been watching too many courtroom dramas. Most cross-examinations on documents are incredibly tedious. Rudd is right to read carefully what is put before him.
    Not long ago I was involved in a case where the silk on the other side was basically blind. So every time a new document was being handed up or given to the witness, his solicitor had to read it out to him. In hindsight, I should have wandered out and got myself a coffee.

  3. [Absolutely not wanting to reignite Labor War…

    / options offered in his office!
    ]

    Not wishing to reignite Rudd / Gillard wars….but let me here just repeate, repeat the invented memes of his enemies and add some of my own stuff that suits my particular bias and bile on Rudd. ffs

    Yeh…he was so bad that he saved the country from recession by implementing a broad and complex answer to the GFC…. but that must have been when Rudd was possessed by some alien spirit since it doesn’t suit the meme I wish to perpetuate.

  4. “@sspencer_63: Asked if there is any role for the Commonwealth in health, Abbott says “let’s see where those discussions go”.”

  5. [Rudds’ problem .. he doesn’t understand “his own evidence “, council keeps having to lead him…nothing seems to have changed.
    ]

    Oh there we have it…editoral comment to match the stored up bile..

    [nothing seems to have changed.
    ]

    Interesting is that no matter where Rudd appears or does..it is opportunity for his haters to …well perpetuate a meme and add their little knives

  6. [BB

    all too much for me… what should take 10 seconds is going on for an eternity.

    If the UN are stupid enough to appoint Rudd to Syria situation that sorry mess will never resolve.
    Off for a walk to clear my head
    ]

    So sceptic reveals its true colors….his hurtedness revealed in further attempts to smear Rudd as is his obvious want

  7. Joe Hockey true to form this morning

    [
    “I’d say to you, Chris, one of the things that quite astounds me is some people are screaming about $7 co-payment. One packet of cigarettes cost $22. That gives you three visits to the doctor. You can spend just over $3 on a middy of beer, so that’s two middies of beer to go to the doctor. Let’s have some perspective about the costs of taking care of our health. And is a parent really going to deny their sick child a visit to the doctor which would be the equivalent payment of a couple of beers or one-third of a packet of cigarettes?”
    ]

    You’re astounded Joe because you have no freakin idea what it’s like out here in the real world.

    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/15/budget-2014-brawl-over-state-funding-and-gst-continues-politics-live

  8. [Rudd is right to read carefully what is put before him.
    ]

    No no no. Sceptic wants Rudd to makes some witty political points and electioneering stuff from the witness box.. you throw caution to the wind, say whatever comes into your head…it is only evidence you know, so no big deal.

    Yeh of course you got to be extremely careful what you say, especially when you are dealing with lots of complex issues, data and interconnected streams.

  12. Re BB @96 – yes, the whole point of the program was to provide an immediate stimulus to the economy and prevent mass unemployment. If the program had gone through a full planning cycle of 6 to 12 months, it would have been too late. I seem to remember that this happened with a Keating Government program in the early 90’s recession called ‘One Nation’ (before anyone had heard of Pauline).

    So there will be a few rough edges in the stimulus programs, the odd cheque sent to a dead person, costs that are higher than would have been the case in had a full planning and rollout cycle been applied, but that’s not the point.

    Of course, participants in the Home Insulation Program were still required to comply with the relevant OH&S laws and to provide proper instruction, e.g. turn off the power before working around power lines.

    The Liberals would have allowed the market to work its ‘magic’. This would have entailed unemployment going to 10% and beyond, with all the misery and economic wreckage that would have resulted, not just to those losing their jobs. They have never admitted this. No one ever asked them “what level of unemployment would have been acceptable?”

  14. Sir Mad Cyril

    [ One packet of cigarettes cost $22. That gives you three visits to the doctor. ]
    The interviewer should have then asked HoJo how many visits one of his cigars would cover.

  18. SMC

    [ You’re astounded Joe because you have no freakin idea what it’s like out here in the real world. ]

    hockey lies so much and so readily the best approach is to cease listening to him.

    His credibility is zero.

  19. “@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: Labor will fight for Medicare and we will fight for our pensioners #Budget2014 #budget #auspol”

  21. [Oh there we have it…editoral comment to match the stored up bile..]

    No no no it isn’t editorial comment the voices in their head say it is ”fact” – they are very loud voices and there are so many voices all screaming the same thing – facts not uninformed speculation!

    Roflmao

  22. “@ABCNews24: Bill Shorten: Tony Abbott wants to use cheap slogans. Earn or learn. That’s not a program to create jobs #Budget2014 #budget #auspol”

  23. [Labor will fight for Medicare and we will fight for our pensioners]

    Thats exactly the way they should frame their public consumption messages.

  26. Much “Clive Palmer” rhetoric from Shorten. “Tony Abbott’s not going to an early election. We want Abbott to stop the lies”.

  33. The only screaming I hear..Murdoch’s crew, and butt hurt Gillard supporters who only too happily perpetuated and added to the meme..when hacks after the knifing came here also to sell them.

    Amazing….solve the GFC but some how dopplegangered.

    Wonder why people wont vote Labor and will seek alternatives.

  34. “@Pollytics: The insulation royal commission is torturous. Though most hunts for things that don’t exist usually are”

  35. zoomster

    Hockey has already positioned himself as the cigar-chomping, silk covered antique chair owner with a rich wife. He’s going really well 😆

  39. [Paul Barratt ‏@phbarratt 1h
    Government’s vision of ppl losing jobs to make way for better jobs is to slash the scientific workforce to make way for ppl building roads.]

  43. [wendy_harmer May 13
    Yep, as predicted, just got the sack from the disbanded National People With A Disability and Carer Council. Lovely budget night surprise!]

  47. I hope Rudd does his complicated speech thing, and use 25 words where one would do.

    This bastard of a RC deserves it. 😆

  50. More or less totally ignored by the MSM, the Gekko Gang has initiated a new battle in the Race War.

    ‘Bigots have rights’, intoned Brandis.

    The Gekko Gang has taken $236 million from Indigenous programs.

    That is on top of the co-payment which will disproportionately come from the sickest segment of Australian socieity.

    This is on top of the withdrawal of Newstart from the segment of Australian youth that has the highest level of youth unemployment.

    These youth will now have to be supported by the poorest group of parents and grandparents in Australia. Or starve.

    ‘Let them eat sand,’ nodded Abbott.

    There is one good thing, though. Aboriginal men won’t have any concerns about having to work until 70 before getting their retirement benefits.

    Their life expectancy is only 69 years.

    http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/abs@.nsf/latestProducts/3302.0.55.003Media%20Release12010-2012

    Oh, and not a peep of protest from Giles, Mundine, Pearson and Wyatt.

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